10-5-14

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Doc's Sports


5 Unit Play. #476 Take New England Patriots +1.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) TOP NFL Game of the Weekend. New England could not have played any worse last week in Kansas City, and because of that they enter this game as an underdog at home for just the second time in close to a decade. Cincinnati could very well be the best team in the AFC, but they have never handled prosperity all that well in recent years. Much like Tampa Bay winning for us last week, all of these players are professionals, and pride is on the line when they are coming off an embarrassing game. The Patriots need this game and they get it at Foxborough.



4 Unit Play. #471 Take Kansas City Chiefs +6 over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) The 49ers dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football last week against Philadelphia and still had to hang on for dear life to earn a home victory. I do not expect that kind of domination this week against Kansas City, a team that has won two straight games in dominating fashion. The visitor is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 San Francisco home games. Kansas City has a bye on deck, and this falls into a 12-4 ATS trend (1 push) when teams are coming off a Monday Night Football Game. Coach Reid has a knack of keeping games close, and I just do not see Kansas City getting blown out in this game. If the Chiefs can hang with Denver at Sports Authority Field, they can take this game down to the wire as well.

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Raphael Esparza
5 U Denver -7

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INDIAN COWBOY

8-Unit Play #458. Take New York Giants -3.5 over Atlanta (Sunday @1pm est)

These teamsdislike each other more than most people realize. For starters, Atlanta hadlost to this team in the playoffs a few years ago and was drummed up in NewYork and ever since then bad blood was there between these two teams. Atlantatook out all of their frustrations when they beat this team in their mostrecent affair 34-0 in 2012. Now, the Giants who did not score a point inAtlanta at the Dome look for revenge here at home. Atlanta does come off a lossto Minnesota which is a bit worrisome but having said that, the Falcons havebeat two teams outside the top 20 in power rankings including the Bucs andSaints. Combine that with the Giants having played a much tougher schedulelosing to the likes of Detroit and Arizona, both competent teams and nowbeating two teams in Houston who is around the top 16 and Washington on theroad in a big win, this is a nice spot for the Giants to get revenge from the2012 loss. Atlanta is a good team, but a .500 team as that defense is porous asthe Vikings showed. Look for Atlanta to stay close early but then the Giants tomake adjustments as Coughlin is significantly a better coach than Mike Smithand we have the Giants winning this contest by likely double-digits here. TheGiants will not get shutout like they did in 2012 and though the Falcons willbe motivated, this will be a public loss as well as the public are on Atlantacatching the points. The Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 13 road games andthe Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 5 - this is when Coughlinmakes the adjustments after a slow start every year.

5-Unit Play. #468. Take Over 47 Pittsburgh vs. Jacksonville(Sunday @ 1pm est)

This was nearly abigger step out but we did not want to release a bigger step-out on a total.Per this game, after Pittsburgh was embarrrassed at home by a loss to Tampa Bay(which was not their fault given that TB coming off their worst drubbing to thehands of the Falcons on national television) - but its a game that thePittsburgh defense should have held on. Nevertheless as they stroll intoJacksonville, they are just a 6 point favorite and this time, the public istaking note as Jacksonville played a pretty good contest at San Diego - butnotice San Diego is a much improved team continuing to shape up from lastyear's playoff run. Look for Jacksonville to continue to improve, look forPittsburgh to be much better offensively and look for Jacksonville to pushPittsburgh as this will likely be a high scoring affair and surprsie somefolks. We have this game in the 52 range which is wh you see a 47 total on thisgame which seems a bit high. Note that the Over is 4-0 for the Steelersfollowing a straight up loss (see the Caorlina Over after the Baltimore loss)and the Over is 5-1 for the Jaguars in their last 6 home games (indicating theyare an active underdog at home)

3-Unit Play. #472. Take San Francisco -6 over Kansas City (Sudnay@ 4:25pm est)

It's tough to seethis happening but we do think that San Fran does well here at home againstKansas City. Though KC looked amazing on Monday Night Football, this is aclassic let down spot here for this team as they hook up against San Fran. Ifanyone knows Alex Smith well it's Harbaugh and with as much heat as he hastaken with the Niners with his impending contract, the Michigan rumors, theRaiders job now open as they will pursue him heavily and open up their walletsas Harbaugh is frankly perfect for the Raiders job, this team does well againstadversity. Harbaugh and the Niners have their backs against the walls in thatdivision at 2-2 and looking to avoid going 2-3 and this is a must win. As down,they face a Chiefs that are on a high, facing their old quarterback and thisteam getting a lot of heat for losing to two good teams in Chicago (a late letdown) and of course the loss to the Cardinals (a competent Bruce Arians team).This team is much better and the Chiefs struggle against tough defensive linessuch as the Titans and the Broncos. Good public fade here to boot as well asthe public is heavily on the underdog which isn't that much of a surprise afterthe big Monday Night win by the Chiefs. Classic let down spot and Harbaugh willlook to give Smith all he can handle here. We have the Niners possibly by double-digitsas the Chiefs running game runs against a wall here against the Ninersdefensive line and line backing core.

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Strike Point Sports

7*- Ny Giants
3*- Houston Texans

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play Sun Saints -10

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Cappers Access

Panthers -3
Chargers -6.5
Bengals Pk

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River City Sharps

The Pittsburgh Steelers are still smarting from their stunning last-minute loss to the Tampa Bay Bucs and need to start feeling good about themselves. Looks like it’s a perfect time to take a trip to Jacksonville to meet up with Blake Bortles and the Jags! The Steelers seemingly had the Tampa game in the bag until Mike Glennon led the Bucs down the field late to grab the road victory. Remember that just the week before, the Steelers had gone into Carolina and convincingly beat Cam Newton and the Panthers. We like that road moxie and think it shows itself here again vs. the Jags on Sunday. While Bortles looks like he can make all of the throws, he is still locked in to receivers too much and that may be a problem against the Pittsburgh ball-hawking secondary. We get a veteran team with the better head coach (Tomlin) on the road trying to bounce back…and we get them at less than a touchdown against a team that has been outscored 152-41 since their 17-0 lead over the Eagles in the season opener. Jacksonville is just 3-11 as a home underdog over the past three seasons and 1-11 ATS in the first half of seasons over the past two seasons. Big Ben and the Steelers take care of business on the road and win this one by double digits. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6)

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NonStopSportsPicks

2* Teaser 2 Team 7 Point Falcons & Saints

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Inside the Stats - Week 5
By Marc Lawrence

Week Five of the 2014 NFL season is here and with it only two teams remain undefeated – Arizona and Cincinnati, both of whom avoided the grim reaper with Bye Weeks.

As we do each week, let’s take a deeper look inside the stats and analyze the numbers to date.

Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Sept. 29 unless noted otherwise.

By Land or by Air

With September in the rear view mirror, here are the leading college football offensive and defensive rushing and passing stats complied season to date against FBS teams only with a minimum of three game results. Stats compiled in FCS games are excluded.

Looking Inside the Stats

As you know, football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. To re-iterate, gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game.

Here are the phony teams playing this week who won phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; won the game but were out-gained by 100 or more yards:

-- NFL: Green Bay Packers.

These are the teams playing this week who lost phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:

-- NFL: Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams.

Who’s Hot And Who’s Not

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

-- Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith is 16-3 ATS in his NFL career in games off a loss of eight or more points, including 10-3 SU and 13-0 ATS if his squad’s win percentage is .400 or greater.

-- The Chicago Bears are 2-0 SU and ATS in games in which they have been out-gained this season. Chicago is 0-2 SU and ATS in games in which they have out-gained their opponents.

-- Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler is 0-4 ATS in his NFL career as a dog versus opponents off back-to-back losses by an average loss of 15 points per game.

-- Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is 18-6 SU and ATS In his NFL career in games off a win when facing a non-division opponent, including 6-0 ATS during the first four games of the season.

-- The Detroit Lions held their first three opponents to season low yards this campaign. They held the New York Jets to a 2nd low yardage mark last week.

-- St. Louis Rams head coach Jeff Fisher is 91-62-1 ATS as an underdog. He has faced Philadelphia only once in his NFL career, defeating the Eagles 31-13 as a 13-point underdog in 2006.

STAT OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 0-5 SU and ATS in his last five games versus winless opponents.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 5
By Vince Akins

NFL USER TREND:

-- The Rams are 17-1-1 ATS since November 27, 2005 on the road against a non-divisonal opponent that had less than 200 passing yards in their last game.

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Bills are 11-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) since December 20, 1997 as a 7+ dog when they lost and failed to cover their last two games

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Jaguars are 0-10 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since September 30, 2012 when facing a team that ha s allowed more than 4.4 yards per carry season-to-date.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-12-1 ATS (-7.3 ppg) past week one when Calvin Johnson had at least seven receptions in a loss the last time they faced this team.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Steelers are 0-10 ATS as a road favorite by at least six points.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that lost by a TD in overtime last game are 43-34-3 ATS. Active on Denver.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Eagles are 12-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since November 27, 2008 on artificial turf after a loss as a dog.

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NFL Tech Trends - Week 5
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 5

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CHICAGO at CAROLINA..Bears have won and covered first two as dog on road this season. Chicago also "over" 7-1 last seven since late 2013. "Over" and Bears, based on "totals" and team trends

CLEVELAND at TENNESSEE...Titans no covers and outscored 100-34 last three after opening win over KC. Browns "over" 3-0 TY. "Over" and Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.

ST. LOUIS at PHILADELPHIA...Eagles "over" 5-2-1 last eight reg.-season games. Rams 1-0 as road dog TY, in fact road team 3-0 vs. line in Ram games this season. Fisher 2-6 in role LY but was 7-1 getting points away in 2012.
Slight to "over" and Rams, based on team and "totals" trends.

ATLANTA at NY GIANTS...G-Men have recovered quick with two SU wins and covers in a row. NYG also "over" 3-1 TY. Falcs 4-9-1 vs. spread last 14 away. Giants and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS...Saints now 18-0 SU and 17-0-1 vs. line at Superdome since 2011 with Sean Payton on sidelines. Saints have also covered 4 of last 5 in series. Saints, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at DALLAS...Jerry Jones 6-15 vs. line last 21 in Arlington. Texans, based on extended Dallas home negatives..

BUFFALO at DETROIT...Lions 7-3 vs. spread as host since 2013. Bills 2-10 last 12 as dog away from home. Lions, based on team trends.

BALTIMORE at INDIANAPOLIS...Ravens 8-3 last 11 overall as dog. Indy 6-6 last 12 as Lucas Oil chalk. Ravens, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at JACKSONVILLE...Jags 0-4 SU and vs. line, also "over" 9-3-1 last 13 since mid 2013. Steel just 3-8 as road chalk since 2011 "Over" and slight to Steelers, based on "totals" and team trends.

ARIZONA at DENVER...Broncos now 0-3 vs. line TY, also "under" 2-0-1 after long-running "over" trends prior. Cards "under" 3-0 TY and 6-2 "under" last 8 since late 2013. "Under," based on recent "totals" trends.

KANSAS CITY at SAN FRANCISCO...49ers "under" 11-4 last 15 since mid 2013. Andy Reid 9-1 vs. line away in reg.-season games with Chiefs. Chiefs and "under," based on team trends.

NY JETS at SAN DIEGO...Bolts 8-2 vs. spread last ten since late 2013. But Rexy 7-3 as dog since LY, and underdog is 3-0 in Jets games TY. Slight to Jets, based on recent Rex dog mark.

CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND...Bengals 11-2 vs. line last 13 away in reg.-season games. Patriots 1-4 vs. line last five since late 2013. Bengals, based on recent trends.


Monday, Oct. 6

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SEATTLE at WASHINGTON...Skins 3-9 vs. line last 12 since mid 2013 (1-3 for Jay Gruden). Seahawks 26-12-2 vs. spread overall since 2012. Seahawks, based on Redskins negatives.

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marc lawrence phone plays

NEW ENGLAND
BALT
CLEV
JETS
DEN

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Baseball Crusher
Los Angeles Dodgers -157 over St. Louis Cardinals - pending
Detroit Tigers -168 over Baltimore O's
(System Record: 107-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 107-75

Rest of the Plays
Los Angeles Angels +118 over KC Royals
Los Angeles Angels + Kansas City Royals OVER 7
Detroit Tigers + Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7.5

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Football Crusher
Nevada +4 over Boise St - pending
Arizona Cardinals +7.5 over Denver Broncos
(System Record: 12-2, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 12-12-1

Rest of the Plays
Chicago Bears +2.5 over Carolina Panthers
Jacksonville Jaguars +6 over Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals -115 over New England Patriots

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Soccer Crusher
Club Brugge + Standard Liege OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Belgium
(System Record: 642-22, won last game)Overall Record: 642-534-97