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2** UNDER the TOTAL / Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins
Seattle comes into tonight’s game off their Bye Week. And the host Redskins come in off a Thursday home loss to division rival New York. While it is not surprising that Seattle comes in with one of the better defenses in the NFL (#6 overall)… it IS surprising that despite the fact that they just allowed 45 points, Washington ALSO come in with a Top Ten defense (324 YPG allowed / #8). Our database simulations have this game finishing with a final score of 23 to 17. Not quite a full TD margin… but 5-6 points less than the current OU line anyway.
First off, we head to the database and query multiple Day of the Week OU tendencies. They all point to a lower-scoring outcome than anticipated:
(1) MONDAY home dogs of +5 or greater points (Wash) have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in the last 4 seasons…
(2) MONDAY teams off a Thursday game (Wash) have gone 1-7 O/U when the OU line is > 39 pts and < 52 pts…
(3) MONDAY teams playing with REST (Seat) have gone 2-11 O/U, and a PERFECT 0-6 O/U as favs > 3 pts (Seat).
One more query in regards to Seattle coming in off their Bye Week… ALL NFL road favorites of -6 > points playing with REST (Seahawks) have gone 0-6 O/U in the last three seasons.
Washington was favored in their last game and lost OUTRIGHT by 31 pts... 0-5 O/U L3Y: All NFL dogs off a SU favorite loss of 28 > pts (Wash).
In that home loss, Washington allowed the NY Giants to score 45 points... 5-18 O/U since 1981: All NFL home teams who allowed 45 > pts at HOME the previous week (Wash).
Finally, we input the divisional aspect of that last loss... 0-9 O/U since 2002: All NFL teams off a SU division home loss of 31 > pts (Wash) when the OU line is > 41 points.
At last look, the Seahawks were laying MORE than a full TD in this game... 1-13 O/U last 3 years: All NFL road favorites of -7 > pts (Sea) when the OU line is in the range of 38 to 48 points.
Washington is a PERFECT 0-5 O/U L2Y as home dogs of 2 > w/ a line of > 44 points. Seattle went a PERFECT 0-5 O/U last year on the NFC road w/ line > 41 points.
Washington has gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U on MONDAYS in NON-division games over the the last 13 seasons…
Seattle has gone 0-3 O/U on MONDAYS in the last two seasons… and 1-4 O/U in the last six seasons.
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