10-11-14

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman



8-Unit Play. Take #116 Minnesota (-3.5) over Northwestern (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 11)
I love the home Gophers in this one! The public is all over Northwestern. But the spread keeps moving against them. That's a great sign for me here. Minnesota won on the road in this series last year and are even stronger this time around. Northwestern is coming off back-to-back upset wins over Wisconsin and Penn State. They will have a letdown going on the road in this one. Minnesota is coming off a bye week and that extra time to prepare is a big advantage. They beat Michigan badly in their last game and will do the same to the Wildcats here at home. This is the same Northwestern team that lost to Cal and to Northern Illinois to start the season and was unconvincing in a 17-point win over FCS Western Illinois. Minnesota's ground game is going to be too much for the Wildcats defense to handle and the Gophers have gotten some key players back healthy during their week off. Minnesota is ready for this game. They are at home with rest and playing a team that will have a letdown. Everything has lined up and I think this one will be a blowout.



3-Unit Play. Take #154 Mississippi State (+3) over Auburn (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
I will go with the home team in this one. Mississippi State has posted back-to-back blowout wins over LSU and Texas A&M. If they were going on the road in this one I might be worried a bit. But they get the defending SEC champions at home. Miss State has been on Cloud 9 all week long. That is going to carry over into this game. This is new heights for this program. And they could be No. 1 if they win this one in a blowout. Auburn has only been on the road one time. They were outplayed by Kansas State but escaped with a win. Mississippi State has won eight straight games going back to last year and they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Bulldogs will take a bite out of the defending SEC champs.



3-Unit Play. Take #139 Indiana (+3.5) over Iowa (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 11)
I like the points in this one. I do not think Iowa is a good favorite and they are overrated after back-to-back wins over Purdue and Pitt. This Iowa team still lost at home to Iowa State and nearly lost to Northern Iowa and Ball State at home. Indiana has won two of three games and righted the ship. They won at Missouri as a 14-point underdog and I think they will spring the upset here. Indiana won this matchup last year and they are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings and 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.



4-Unit Play. Take #143 West Virginia (-5.5) over Texas Tech (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 11)
West Virginia is a team on a mission this year. They are trying to wipe out the memories of last year's terrible season. I think they will have their way with Texas Tech. They have revenge for the last two years when they lost to the Red Raiders, including a tough loss at home last October. The Red Raiders have lost three straight games all by double-digits. The Mountaineers only have two losses this year and they were against Alabama and Oklahoma in two games that were closer than the finals. Texas Tech is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall and I like the road team to get revenge. They are favored for a reason.



4-Unit Play. Take #168 Arizona (+2.5) over USC (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
The wrong team is favored in this game! Arizona is 5-0 and off a big win over Oregon. They are now going to blow out USC. The Trojans have not been very good this year. They were lucky to beat Stanford. They lost on the road to Boston College in a game that wasn't close. And last week the Trojans blew a game against Arizona State on the final play of the game. They lost on a Hail Mary and that is going to stay with them this week. Arizona has a lot of confidence and they had extra time to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday. Arizona is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine.



4-Unit Play. Take #198 Tulane (-3) over Connecticut (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
Tulane is favored for a reason. Connecticut is one of the worst programs in the country. They are going to struggle traveling all the way down to New Orleans. The Green Wave opened their new stadium this year but haven't had a big win yet. This will be the one. The Green Wave are 10-2 ATS at home and 7-0 ATS in October. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS on the road and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games overall. Lay the points.



3-Unit Play. Take #187 Mississippi (+2.5) over Texas A&M (9 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
I am going to keep backing the teams from Mississippi! A&M was blown out by Mississippi State last week. That game was not as close as the final score showed as the Aggies scored two garbage touchdowns when they were down 48-17. Ole Miss was better than Alabama last week and they will be better than the Aggies this week. The Rebels bring a much better defense to this game. And that is going to be a key. Teams can't pull an upset without being able to get a stop on defense. A&M is just 1-3 ATS in its last four games and they are overrated. They should have lost to Arkansas at home two weeks ago but were lucky to win that game before being blown out. Their win at South Carolina is a lot less impressive now. Ole Miss has revenge for losing to the Aggies the past two years. I will take their defense and experience and I think that Ole Miss will win a shootout here. Take the points.

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Doc's Sports



4 Unit Play. #125/#523 Take Florida State Seminoles -23.5 over Syracuse Orange (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) Syracuse stinks and now they will be without their starting quarterback in Terrelle Hunt. Notre Dame handed them the game on a platter two weeks ago in New Jersey and the Orange still lost to them by 16 points. This offense is terrible and cannot move the football whatsoever. Florida State is due for a complete 60 minute ass whipping sooner or later. I feel that it will come today and thus we will lay a ton of points on the road looking to collect! Syracuse is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.



4 Unit Play. #128/#554 Take Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3 over Duke Blue Devils (Saturday 12:30 pm ACC Network) Georgia Tech just owns Duke! The Yellow Jackets have won 10 straight games against the Blue Devils by an average margin of 21 points (7-3 ATS). Duke won the division last year and still lost to Georgia Tech by 18 points, giving up 449 yards on the ground.



4 Unit Play. #159/#525 Take Alabama Crimson Tide -8.5 over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 6 pm ESPN) The Razorbacks are a much-improved team, but I do not feel they are ready to battle to cream of the crop in the SEC. The last two matchups have been won by the Tide by identical scores of 52-0. This is actually a great matchup for Alabama as they do not have to worry about the spread in this game as the Razorbacks line up in a traditional formation and run the ball man on man. Alabama has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 matchups. Nick Saban takes out his frustration in a big way on Saturday, and we collect in the process as well.



6 Unit Play. #165/#597 Take Oregon Ducks -2 over UCLA Bruins (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) PAC-12 Game of the Year. This game has lost a little of its luster with both teams suffering setbacks last week, and thus the loser of this game has no chance to make it into the 4-team playoff. That being said, I expect Oregon to bounce back in a big way and get back into the win column. Oregon has shown signs of being dominant this season as evidenced by their big win over Michigan State. However, the same cannot be said about UCLA. The Bruins have struggled in all of their games at some point, including Arizona State. This UCLA team just does not have it this year, and I have never thought Jim Mora Jr was a big-time coach. QB Marcus Mariota is still a big-time player and has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. Oregon has won 10 of the last 12 meetings with UCLA. Oregon is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games. UCLA is 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games played in October.



4 Unit Play. #188/#540 Take Texas A&M Aggies -2 over Mississippi Rebels (Saturday 9 pm ESPN) Little worried that all the sharps are on the Aggies but that will not deter us. The Rebels are coming off their most important victory in years and all this week everybody is telling them how good they are. This sets up a trap game if I have ever seen one, and expect the Aggies to take out their frustration in a big way Saturday night in College Station. Texas A&M has not played a home game in close to a month, and you can bet their fan base will be ready for this game. A&M has won two straight games versus the Rebels, with both wins coming in Oxford. Granted the Aggies defense is suspect, but I expect them to put forth a big showing in front of their home fans. The SEC West is strong from top to bottom, and I just do not believe Ole Miss will be able to maintain focus in this game, especially in the first half coming off such an emotional win. A&M is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

3* U of Minnesota -4
3* Over 53.5 FSU/Syracuse
3* UNC + 17
3* Over 61 Toledo/Iowa State

7* Louisiana Monroe +22

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trev Rogers

UCLA +3

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Prediction Machine

Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick%
184 7:00 PM FIU @ UTSA 45 37.3 Under 61.5
136 1:00 PM BUFF @ EASTMI 58.5 68.9 Over 61.5
160 6:00 PM ALA @ ARK 56 64.5 Over 60.3
154 3:30 PM AUBURN @ MISSST 63 71 Over 59.4
138 2:00 PM MIA-O @ AKRON 50.5 57.1 Over 58.8
182 2:00 PM ARKST @ GAST 62.5 72.7 Over 58.7
142 2:00 PM BGSU @ OHIO 63 70.5 Over 57.6
114 3:30 PM MSU @ PURDUE 54.5 49.1 Under 57.4
140 12:00 PM IND @ IOWA 55.5 61.7 Over 57.3
116 12:00 PM NW @ MINN 43.5 39.3 Under 57.2
122 12:00 PM MIDDTN @ MARSH 73.5 65.4 Under 57.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS
152 under
135 over
137 over
122 under
180 under
174 under
184 under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3* Pac 12 GOM is on UCLA

3* SEC GOW is on Texas A & M.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob



****West Virginia (-3 ½) 47 TEXAS TECH 30
Sat Oct-11-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 143 Over/Under 73.5

One positive about West Virginia not covering for me last week against Kansas is that the line on this game was lower than it should have been. West Virginia only beat the Jayhawks 33-14 as a 26 point favorite but the Mountaineers should have won by more than 35 points based on their dominating 557 yards to 176 yards advantage in that game but being -3 in turnovers kept them from covering. West Virginia should move the ball just as well this week and will mostly likely put a lot more points on the board with those yards. Excluding their 54-0 win over Towson, the Mountaineers have averaged 544 yards at 6.5 yards per play while facing a better than average schedule of FBS defenses that include Alabama, Maryland, and Oklahoma. Overall, West Virginia has put up those big offensive numbers against 4 defensive units that are 0.4 yppl better than average and today they’re facing a Texas Tech defense that is 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense). The Mountaineers will have a lot of possessions in what should be a high paced game with both teams running no huddle offenses and my model projects 6.8 yards per play and 641 total yards for West Virginia in this game, which should get them at least 45 points.

Texas Tech is going to have a lot of possessions too and the Red Raiders have a bit of an advantage with an attack that has been 0.7 yppl better than average overall (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) going up against a West Virginia stop unit that’s been 0.4 yppl better than average (5.9 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would average 6.3 yppl against an average defense). The matchup is favorable to West Virginia, who has been susceptible to good running teams (allowed 591 yards at 6.3 yards per running play to Alabama and Oklahoma) but the Mounties are very good defending the pass, yielding only 54% completions for the season and limiting their 4 FBS foes to 6.3 yards per pass play – well below the 7.5 yppp that those teams would average against an average defense. With Texas Tech thrown the ball about two-thirds of the time, West Virginia’s defense will be relatively better since the Red Raiders aren’t going to fully exploit their bad run defense while playing into their strength. My math model projects 6.3 yards per running play and just 5.6 yards per pass play for Texas Tech but the Red Raiders are still likely to throw the ball way more than they run it (the model projects 60% pass plays, which is less than their norm of 66.4% passes). My model projects 448 total yards at 5.9 yppl for Texas Tech, which projects to around 30 points.

Texas Tech is a mediocre team at best and the Red Raiders’ only two wins were by just 7 points over Central Arkansas (as a 34 point favorite) and by only 4 points as a 21 point favorite against UTEP and the Red Raiders have lost by an average margin of 21 points to good teams Arkansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State and West Virginia is better than all 3 of those teams, which isn’t obvious because the Mountaineers have 2 losses. However, those two losses were competitive losses to elite teams Alabama and Oklahoma and the Mountaineers have outgained their 4 FBS opponents 544 yards to 418 yards per game despite facing 4 teams with an average rating that is 8.5 points tougher than average. In addition to the nearly 200 yards of projected yardage advantage the Mountaineers are likely to be positive in turnovers given that Clint Trickett has thrown just 4 interceptions in 5 games while turnover prone Davis Webb of Texas Tech has thrown10 interceptions in 5 games this season and has a 3.2% career interception percentage, which is a lot given how many passes the Red Raiders throw per game. I don’t see this game being competitive at all and I’ll take West Virginia in a 4-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less, for 3-Stars up to -7 and for 2-Stars if the line goes above 7 points.



***MINNESOTA (-3) 24 Northwestern 11
Sat Oct-11-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 116 Over/Under 42.0

Northwestern has rebounded from season opening home losses to Cal and Northern Illinois by posting 3 straight wins, including upsets at Penn State and against Wisconsin the last two weeks. However, the back to back upset wins set up the Wildcats in a very negative 24-90-3 ATS road letdown situation this week and Minnesota applies to a very good 102-38-3 ATS home momentum off a bye week angle. I would have played Minnesota in this game even without the support of the strong angles and I really considered making this game a 4-Star Best Bet since the record of games when the math model and the situations are both significantly on the same side has been very, very good over the years.

Northwestern was an underrated team after those first two losses but that is no longer the case after back-to-back upset wins. The Wildcats are basically an average team that is good defensively (5.0 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and bad offensively (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack). The problem for the Wildcats in this game is that they’re facing a Minnesota team that is actually a bit better defensively, rating at 0.8 yppl better than average (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl), but are much better than Northwestern on offense. Minnesota has been just average offensively with quarterback Mitch Leidner in the game (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl), but that’s 0.7 yppl better than the Northwestern offense and the Gophers’ defense has been a bit better too.

I don’t see either team having a lot of offensive success in this game but Minnesota is projected to average 5.0 yards per run and 5.0 yards per pass play, so the Gophers won’t be completely shut down. Northwestern, meanwhile, is projected to average less than 4 yards per run and per pass and Minnesota has dominated sub-par offensive teams – holding Eastern Illinois, San Jose State and Michigan (with Morris at QB) to an average of just 13.7 points on 286 yards and 4.1 yards per play. My math model gives Minnesota a 58.5% chance of covering at -3 points (based on the historical performance of my model) and the positive situation enhances that percentage. I’ll take Minnesota in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 or less, for 2-Stars up to -6 ½ and for 1-Star at -7. I also lean towards the Under.



**Mississippi (+3) 34 TEXAS A&M 28
Sat Oct-11-2014 at 06:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 187 Over/Under 63.0

Mississippi just knocked off Alabama and while you might expect some sort of letdown following that big win there is no evidence of that being the case. None of my general letdown angles applied and I looked up how teams perform the week after winning as an underdog to stay unbeaten with at least a 5-0 record and those teams are 45-27 ATS against conference foes that also played the previous week, including 19-7 ATS since 2008. I also looked up how teams perform after beating Alabama and found that teams that beat the Crimson Tide are 13-6 ATS in their next game, including 11-2 ATS if not favored by 17 points or more. So, there is no reason to expect a letdown from the Rebels in this game and there is no doubt based on my numbers that they are better than Texas A&M.

Mississippi has the nation’s 2nd best defense, allowing just 10.2 points and 4.1 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Today the Rebels will be taking on my 2nd rated offense, as A&M has averaged 7.5 yppl with QB Kenny Hill in the game while facing teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack. That’s a pretty even matchup and Ole’ Miss just held Alabama, my #4 rated offense, to a modest 17 points and 5.3 yppl. Texas A&M, meanwhile, was just limited to a mediocre 5.7 yppl by Mississippi State, the first better than average defense that they’ve faced. Now they face a much better defense. My model projects 415 yards at 5.5 yppl for Texas A&M in this game but it will be lower than that if they play at the level they played last week against the Bulldogs.

While the battle between the Aggies’ offense and the Rebels’ defense is a wash, the battle between the Ole’ Miss offense and the A&M defense is significantly in favor of the Rebels. Mississippi has averaged 6.5 yards per play with quarterback Bo Wallace on the field this season and have done so against teams that would combine to allow just 5.4 yppl to an average team. I don’t see that attack having much trouble moving the ball at their normal rate given that the Aggies’ defense has been just average through their first 5 games, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average offensive team. Texas A&M has faced three good offensive teams in South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi State last week and the Aggies allowed an average of 35 points on 476 yards at 6.8 yppl in those 3 games. My math model projects 507 yards at 6.5 yppl for Ole’ Miss in this game.

Mississippi should be favored by 6 points in this game based on how each team has played so far this season and I’m happy to take a few points with the Rebels here. Last week’s win over Alabama was no fluke and the Rebels are a legitimate National Championship contender while I rate Texas A&M as the 14th best team in the nation. I’ll take Mississippi in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 1-Star at pick or -1.



*Alabama (-9 ½) 38 ARKANSAS 22
Sat Oct-11-2014 at 03:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 159 Over/Under 54.5

In past years teams with National Championship expectations would often suffer what I call the “bubble is burst” letdown the next week but I don’t see that being the case with a 4 team playoff this year since 1 loss does not completely ruin a good team’s chances of being involved, especially in the SEC, where even 2 losses could get a team in the 4 team playoff. I expect Alabama to rebound this week against a good Arkansas team that has too many holes on defense to contain Alabama’s potent offense. Obviously, Alabama’s offense was held in check last week in a 17-23 loss at Ole’ Miss but the Rebels have my 2nd rated defense in the nation and averaging 5.3 yards per play against that unit on the road is still 1.6 yppl better than what an average team would gain in Oxford. Alabama’s offense has been 1.8 yppl better than average for the season (7.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack) and an even better +2.1 yppl with starting quarterback Blake Sims in the game. However, I do rate the Bama offense at +1.8 yppl better than average for this game after adjusting for the injury to RB Kenyan Drake. Drake’s 5.1 ypr on 22 runs is not going to be missed but he caught 5 of 6 passes thrown to him for a total of 159 yards and two touchdowns and taking out those numbers lowers the Tide offensive rating by 0.3 yppl.

While Bama’s offense was kept in check last week by an equally good Mississippi defense the Tide have averaged 42 points on 595 yards at 7.6 yppl against the other 4 teams they’ve played (West Virginia, FAU, S. Miss, and Florida), who would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Arkansas, meanwhile, would allow 5.7 yppl at home to an average offensive team so the 566 yards at 7.6 yppl that my model forecasts for Alabama in this game (after adjusting for Drake being out) is certainly in line with what the Tide has done to a collection of similarly rated defenses. That projection could be an underestimation given that Arkansas has faced two elite offensive teams in Auburn and Texas A&M and allowed 8.5 yppl to Auburn and 7.7 yppl to A&M. I have Alabama’s compensated offense rated 4th while Auburn is rated 6th and A&M is rated 2nd, so I see no reason why Arkansas can be expected to stop Alabama after giving up an average of 40 points and 8.1 yppl to Auburn and Texas A&M.

The line and total on this game indicate that the odds makers expect Arkansas to score about 22 or 23 points. I think that will also be the case, as my model 21.5 points for a Razorbacks’ offense that is 0.7 yppl better than average (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) going up against an Alabama defense that has been 0.9 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl). In recent seasons Alabama has performed much better against pro style offenses than they have against teams that run a spread offense so I can see Bama’s defense playing better than expected in this game. I certainly won’t assume that, however, and my model projects 302 yards at 5.6 yppl for Arkansas.

Overall the math model shows solid line value in favor of Alabama and the Tide apply to a 23-3 ATS game 6 situation that plays on teams that started the season with 4 wins and are coming off their first loss of the season. My model isn’t as good historically playing on double-digit road favorites so I’m going to be cautious and set a tight line constraint here at 10 points. I’ll take Alabama in a 1-Star Best Bet at -10 point or less

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

[120] Temple -14.5

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Northcoast

Early Bird POW

Florida St -23

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Bryan Leonard

College Football Blowout Game Of the Month

Clemson

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GILztips


[148] Baylor -8
[188] Texas A&M -2
[160] Arkansas +11
[168] Arizona/USC O68
[132] NC State/BC O56.5

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Maddux Sports

10* California -1.5
10* UCLA +3.5
10* Minnesota -3
10* Marshall -21.5
10* Central Michigan +10.5
10* Old Dominion +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

3* U of Minnesota -4
3* Over 53.5 FSU/Syracuse
3* UNC + 17
3* Over 61 Toledo/Iowa State

7* Louisiana Monroe +22

INDIAN COWBOY

3 Unit Play. #125 Take Over 53.5 Florida Statevs. Syracuse (Saturday @ Noon Est)
I know it's hard tobelieve and sometimes you have to hold your nose with our system of fading thepublic. But that is our mantra as that is one of our basic principles which hasworked wonders in Basketball (#1 in NBA, 94-60, +12,800) (65-45, +4400 in CollegeBall) (#1 in the Country in NBA/CBB at +17,300) (#1 in Country in NBA/CBB/WNBAfor +20,300) - this includes being #1 in College Ball in 2011 going 80-50 for+8400. FSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games with their first ATS win comingagainst Wake Forrest at home. Note that the Seminoles remember their poor roadperformance against NC State which nearly cost them the #1 ranking as they weredown early and often. Though they did bounce-back somewhat against Wake, theywill want to show their caliber on the road here against Syracuse. This teambeat Syracuse 59-3 last year and its time for Syracuse to return the favor abit. Note that FSU has Notre Dame on the docket next week as well so might notbe as in tune on the defensive end. Plus, Syracuse is likely to be a solidactive underdog here regardless of the fact their quarterback is out and a newone takes place here. Not much is expected of 'Cuse in this contest but weexpect them to be a solid underdog and likely fall within the 24 points butmore importantly, give FSU a decent game here surprisingly. Syracuse gave up 28points to a Louisville team that is not stout on offense, then gave up 31 and34 to Notre Dame and Maryland. Now they face a potent FSU offense, who islooking to play better on the road than the NC State game and likely to be anactive underdog to boot as we have always felt when a star player goes out agame is likely to go over the posted total regardless of the sport (especiallyin Basketball). The Over is 4-0 for the Seminoles following a straight up winof 20 points and the Over is 7-1 for the Orange aftera ccumulating less than a100 yards of rushing in their previous game, look for the Orange to havenothing to lose here and push FSU at home but FSU eventually winning, but moreimportantly, this contest has the likelihood of going to a 42-20 type ofcontest.



3-Unit Play. #175 Take North Carolina +17 overNotre Dame (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)
At some point UNC has tostep up and play a decent and complete game. And the oddsmakers seem to agreeplacing them as a two touchdown and field goal underdog to Notre Dame here. Ifyou take a close look at UNC you'll see they are a top 35 passing team and top35 in points scored and can keep up with most teams in the country as perscoring. The issue with this squad is certainly their defense but it has gottenbetter each week to their credit though they are 2-3 but a win or at least acompetent effort here will go a long way for this coaching staff. The Irishcome off a huge win against Stanford keeping their playoff hopes alive here andneeded a 4th and 11 touchdown to keep their National Championship hopes alive.Having said that, it would be hard to get up for this game after such anemotional win as they will get UNC's best shot here at home. It's just aclassic let down spot here for Notre Dame and a step up opportunity for a UNCteam that has underachieved this year. The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS following adouble-digit loss at home (losing to Va Tech as a 2.5 dog at home by more thantwo touchdowns) and the Irish are just 2-5 ATS when facing a team with a losingrecord at home meaning they have difficulty at times against large spreads athome.



3-Unit Play. #163 Take Over 61 Toledo vs. IowaState (Saturday @ 3:30pm)
With injuries facingToledo including their quarterback and running back possibly, the line is just3 here against Iowa State on the road. Toledo has a very deep team and theirstrength is not the players necessarily as it is their system (a junior chipkelly system if you will). This team has a potent offense regardless of whothey plug in. Toledo is 4-2 coming into this contest putting up 24 points onMissouri and 34 against Cincinnati. This team has a top 20 offense, has a top45 passing attack and top 25 running attack to boot. Iowa State might also belooking forward to Texas next week in a contest they really should have beatTexas but fell short in a questionable and shady officiating which madenational news. Plus, State probably is aware of the injuries to Toledo so mightnot be as in tune with this contest. This is a great spot here for Toledo to bea quality active dog and give Iowa State a great game and send this game over.State is vulnerable to the rushing attack as they are outside the top 100 inrun defense and nearly outside the top 100 in overall defense as well. Look forthis to be a 37-35 type of contest with Toledo possibly making the upset on theroad.



3-Unit Play. #116 Take Minnesota -4 overNorthwestern (Saturday @ Noon est)
I'm a big fan ofNorthwestern and the program that they run there. It's a high class team andorganization. Basically a mini Stanford if you will and follow their academicprogram. This team has come a long way from the slow start and is now 3-2 andlooks to be bowl bound once again. But, this is a difficult contest for themagainst Minnesota. Yes, NW beat a good Penn State team on the road but Statewas probably not expecting much and got caught looking forward to bettercontests down the line. Plus, this team did beat Wisconsin in a huge game athome as Wisconsin likes to pound and ground like NW does. But, Minnesota has alot to be desired as the one difference between this team and the others isthat Minnesota has a top 40 defense which has gone under the radar. This teamis 20th in the nation in points allowed, top 40 in rushing yards allowed andtop 45 in passing yards allowed. They held TCU a top 15 team on the road tojust 30 points (it was our 7* on TCU if you remember over Minnesota).Northwestern has an offense that is outside the top 100 and though theirdefense is competent as well, I'm not sure if they have the offense punch tokeep up with Minnesota and their top 25 running game. NW is outside the top 60in rushing yards allowed. The Wildcats are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when facinga winning team (due for a let down after back to back big wins) and thoughMinnesota could be in for a let down post Michigan, the Gophers are 7-0 ATS intheir last 7 conference games as this would be the team's 5th win and move themto 4-0 at home. This also sets Minnesota up for a bigger bowl game later thisyear if they can manage two more wins.



7-Unit Play. #185 Take Louisiana Monroe +22 overKentucky (Saturday @ Noon est)
Nice let down spot herefor Kentucky after their huge win against South Carolina at home - in a nightgame that was nationally televised. It was a big win for a program that is now4-1 and looks to be headed to a bowl game and after going countless gameswithout a SEC win now finds itself with back to back SEC wins after Vanderbilt andSouth Carolina. This team is on the rise with their top 25 recruiting classesas well on a consistent basis. Having said that, this is a let down spot for ateam that has many other important games coming up as they face LouisianaMonroe. UL Monroe comes off a tough loss to Arkansas State by 14 points andthey have the offense to keep it relatively close here. Though of course,Kentucky will figure it out and get it together, Monroe does have a top 55passing attack and a top 50 defense. This team has a very similar makeup toVanderbilt on defense which hung tough against Kentucky. Only difference isthis team now can score points as well. Take this for example. This team beatOhio 20-3 earlier this year. Ohio has an offense and defense outside the top 100but the reason why they hung tough is they are a top 70 team in points allowed.Monroe is top 60 in points allowed but difference is they are a top 60 passingteam. The Wildcats are 3-7 ATS following a straight up win and 4-13 ATS intheir last 17 games following an ATS win as well. We have Kentucky winning by17 in this one and given the 5 point differential, we'll roll with theWarhawks. If the Monroe can score a touchdown early, they can drag this contestout with their defense.