10-18-14

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Dr. Bob

***MASSACHUSETTS (-14) 44 Eastern Michigan 24
Sat Oct-18-2014 at 12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 334 Over/Under 0.0
Massachusetts proved once again that they’re good enough to score a lot of points against bad defensive teams, as the Minutemen won 41-17 at Kent State for their 3rd consecutive 40-plus point offensive performance. U Mass actually has scored 31 points or more in 5 of their 7 games with the exclusions being against Boston College and Penn State, and it’s likely that the Minutemen will put up 40 or more points on the scoreboard again this week against a horrible Eastern Michigan defense that’s allowed an average of 40.2 points on 520 total yards per game at 6.9 yards per play (against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). I realize that the Eagles’ defensive scoring average is skewed by the 65 points they gave up to Florida and the 73 they allowed to Michigan State, but giving up 65 points to Florida is an indication that mediocre offensive teams can rack up a lot of points against the Eagles, who have allowed 6.7 yards per play or more in all but one game this season (and that includes giving up 6.9 yppl to FCS team Morgan State). U Mass hasn’t faced a defense this bad and my math model projects 547 total yards at 6.9 yppl and 42.5 points for U Mass in this game.

Eastern Michigan is coming off a rare win, as freshman quarterback Reginald Bell Jr. came off the bench to spark the win over Buffalo with 144 yards on 13 pass plays and 202 yards on 17 runs, which included a 72 yard touchdown. All indications are that Bell will get the start this week but I don’t expect he’ll put up numbers that good again. Bell played in 3 other games previously and totaled just 49 yards on 25 pass plays and 70 yards on 16 runs in those games. Overall, Bell’s passing numbers (5.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average quarterback) are actually 0.9 yppp better than they team average and his rushing numbers would 0.6 yards per rushing play to the Eagles’ attack. Overall, if I assume Bell is indeed a major upgrade despite the limited sample size, then the Eagles’ offense goes from 2.0 yards per play worse than average (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) to 1.1 yppl worse than average. Of course, there is certainly a reasonable chance that Bell is no better than the rest of the Eagles’ quarterbacks, but I prefer to assume his superior numbers (relative to the other Eagles’ quarterbacks) are real rather than variance. The U Mass defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average and the math projects 389 yards at 5.0 yppl for the Eagles in this game, which equates to 22 points when projected turnovers (favors EMU a bit) and special teams (favors U Mass) are factored in.

Overall the math favors Massachusetts by 20 ½ points and the Eagles’ upset win last week sets them up in a negative 9-48-1 ATS subset of a 24-82-1 ATS road dog letdown situation today. Eastern Michigan is also not used to winning and the Eagles have always had a habit of letting down after a rare victory. The Eagles are just 29% ATS in their spread history after a victory, including 2-15 ATS since 2007 and 0-7 ATS recently. That trend has held up through numerous coaches and the Eagles lost 0-65 in week 2 this season after beating Morgan State in their opener. U Mass has covered 5 of their last 6 and I like their chances here given the line value (even with Bell upgrading EMU’s offense by 4 points) and the strong situation against the Eagles. I’ll take Massachusetts in a 3-Star Best Bet at -16 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -17 points.

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Maddux Sports

Upgraded to 20* Miami Ohio+14
10* Pittsburgh+3
10* Massachusetts -13

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Arlon Sports

1* North Texas -11
1* Oklahoma -8
1* New Mexico +11
1* Oregon -21
1* Oklahoma St +8.5
1* LSU -10

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Chuck Edel

Best Bet California +7

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Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary CFB Pick for October 18th, 2014

Game: Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ North Texas Mean Green
Time: Saturday 10/18 7:00 PM Eastern
Pick: Southern Miss +9.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

The glory days and a long consecutive Bowl streak went out the door when Coach Larry Fedora moved on. Southern Miss has endured some trying times to say the least. The better news is here we are through six games and the Golden Eagles have already won two games - more than they accomplished the previous two seasons. They have four losses, but Alabama and Miss State are excusable. They are certainly a much improved team, and came within 6 points in their last game at Middle Tennessee of getting to .500. North Texas has two wins as well, but one vs. Nichols State, and the other came vs. SMU who went scoreless for 11 quarters this season already. Their four losses have all been by 3 TDs or more, after being 1-23 the last two years, and Southern Miss is vastly improved, but no one wants to touch them. North Texas is right within their grasp, and taking 10 or so points on the road makes them an under-the-radar live dog here. Grab the points on Southern Miss in this one.

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Gold Medal Club CFB Selections
324 Maryland -4.5
328 duke -2.5
389 iowa state +12
392 Florida -5.5

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EZWINNERS

5* (340) Arkansas Razorbacks +4

Georgia is coming off of a huge shutout win over Missouri last week in their first game without their suspended star running back Todd Gurley. The players dedicated the game to Gurley and as teams often do in their first game without their star they rose to the occasion in a big way. Freshmen running back Nick Chubb rushed for 143 yards and the Bulldogs defense forced Missouri into five turnovers. Now the Bulldogs must take to the road for the second straight week as a more then a field goal favorite against an ever improving Arkansas team. The Hogs are 0-3 in SEC play, but in their last two games lost in overtime against A&M and by one point to Alabama. The Arkansas defense held ‘Bama to just ten first downs. Hogs quarterback Brandon Allen is also playing well to compliment


5* (400) Northwestern Wildcats +7

This is a big revenge game for Northwestern who lost to these Huskers last season in Nebraska on a Hail Mary. If the Wildcat defense can do a decent job on Husker running back Ameer Abdullah, which I expect them to do, Northwestern will have a chance at the upset. Nebraska will want to try to establish the run, but their offensive line is still an area of concern. Last week the Wildcat defense held Minnesota running back David Cobb to under 100 yards for the game. Coming into that game Cobb was averaging over 144 yards per game and I expect Northwestern's defense to have another strong effort in this game. I like Northwestern to get it done in their homecoming game. Take the points.


5* (403) Notre Dame Fighting Irish +13.5

The Irish looked past an offensively talented North Carolina team last week with this game against #1 ranked Florida State on tap. I took the generous points last week with the Tar Heels as I faded the Irish in the look ahead spot, but I will back Notre Dame in this game. The Irish have been money in these games as they are 10-4 in their last fourteen games against top ten teams including 4-0 against the spread as a visiting dog since 2012. There are more Jameis Winston distractions this week as FSU investigates his autograph signings so I wanted to jump on this early just in case he sits for this game. Even with Winston in the game, the Irish offense can score enough points to win this game straight up. The FSU defense is allowing 21 points and 359 yards per game and this will be the best offense that they have faced all year. Take the points.

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Trev Rogers:

Western Kentucky/Florida Atlantic OVER 68½ over
New Mexico St/ Idaho OVER 66
Miami (OH)/ Northern Illinois OVER 57
Eastern Michigan/ UMASS OVER 62
Eastern Michigan +16.5

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Dave Cokin:

317 Miami Ohio +11.5
327 Virginia +3.5
341 San Jose State -1.5
354 Troy -7
376 Boston College +5
377 Kansas State +8
393 Kansas +14.5
403 Notre Dame +12

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RAS



Ball State/Central Michigan - Over 51.5
Rating: 1.00

New Mexico State/Idaho - Over 66
Rating: 1.00

Western Kentucky/Florida Atlantic - Under 69
Rating: 1.00

Miami Ohio/Northern Illinois - Under 58.5
Rating: 1.00

UAB/Mid Tennessee State - Under 72
Rating: 1.00

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DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play. #305/#703 Take Virginia Tech Hokies -1 over Pittsburgh Panthers (Thursday 7:30 pm ESPN) Pittsburgh is in a major free fall at the moment going 0-3 in their last 3 games. All three of those setbacks came against marginal teams that will struggle to make bowl games. Virginia Tech is decent (not great) on both sides of the football and you can be sure they will be ready to stop the running attack of Pittsburgh. Virginia Tech is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games played on Thursday. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

4 Unit Play. #355/#801 Take Nevada Wolf Pack +12 over BYU Cougars (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN 2) BYU is just not the same team without Taysom Hill, and we will fade them with these big lines each and every game. Nevada may be down big at some point in this game, but they have a knack for coming back late and making games interesting. Playing in Provo is always a tough task, but Nevada is used to the elevation, and I just do not see them getting blown out by a back-up quarterback. Nevada is solid (not great) on both sides of the football, and this game will do down to the wire. Nevada is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning home record. BYU is 0-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 home games.

4 Unit Play. #359/#803 Take Stanford Cardinal -3.5 over Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN) Stanford just owns Arizona State as the Cardinals always seem to have to had great success against spread teams. Stanford beat Arizona State twice last year and never trailed in either one of those games. Stanford is 20-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 29 road games. Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played at Sun Devil Stadium.

5 Unit Play. #386/#772 Take Colorado State Rams -5.5 over Utah State Aggies (Saturday 7 pm CBS Sports Network) Top College Football Play of the Weekend. I truly believe that the Rams have the best coach in the MWC and the best team in the MWC. Therefore we will lay this low number at home against a team without their all-everything quarterback in Chuckie Keaton. The Rams are 8-2 as a home favorite, and they have the weapons to attack this Utah State defense on the ground or through the air. Utah State is not as strong on defense as they were last year, and they do not have an explosive offense. Colorado State has won 9 of their last 11 home games. CSU is also 18-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 games overall. These two teams are heading in opposite directions, and I see a double-digit victory for the visitor.

We will put in the line on this game once it becomes consensus. Whatever line you get play Notre Dame.

4 Unit Play. #403/#791 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Florida State Seminoles (Saturday 8 pm ABC) If Florida State cannot blow out Syracuse without their starting quarterback, I do not expect them to be able to manhandle the Irish. The Seminoles have not played well this year, and the issues with their quarterback keep piling up each and every week. Notre Dame just keeps winning, and this season reminds me of their national championship game appearance two seasons ago. In that year, nobody gave them much of a chance to go into Oklahoma and win, but the Irish did so. Notre Dame is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Florida State is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

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Indian cowboy

3-Unit Play. #324. Take Maryland -4.5 over Iowa (Saturday @ Noon est)

We'll start off Saturday with a selection on Maryland. The Terps typically are a very good bounce-back team of late and as they come off an ugly loss to Ohio State losing 24-52, you would have to think this team shows some pride and bounces back here at home against Iowa. Note the 52 points given up by Maryland were in stark contrast to the 15 points and 20 points given up at Indiana and Syracuse. The last time this team lost was against West Virginia when they fell short at home in a heartbreaker losing 37-40 only to quickly bounce-back on the road at Syracuse winning by double-digits 34-20 and also beating an up and coming Indiana team on the road by the score of 37-15. Note both those teams were outside the top 60. Iowa has an excellent top 25 defense but at the end of the day, not sure if this team can step up offensively and score enough points against a Maryland team that is going to be absolutely fired up today for this contest coming off 50+ points as a defensive output last game. Iowa has also not faced that tough of competition yet as this is a wide open spread offense they are facing today and prior to this they had faced the likes of Ball State, Pitt, Indiana and Purdue. This is the toughest team on the schedule they have faced this year as the previous toughest team was Iowa State who is outside the top 50 and they lost to them by a field goal at home. Now they face a top 50 team on the road which should prove difficult for them as they face a Maryland team highly motivated coming off their worst loss of the season. We have Maryland by 11 here.

5-Unit Play. #370. Take Alabama -13.5 over Texas A&M (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)

I know I'm a huge Alabama fan. But I typically fade Alabama more than I roll with them. There has been immense talk in Alabama about this team not winning by a "wide enough margin". This caused Nick Saban to go nuts in his weekly press conference which I subscribe and watch every week. I have watched every Nick Saban press conference for the past 5 years without fail. Read every single one of his books (and Bear Bryant's books) and am a huge Crimson Tide Fan. Why is this line so big? Because Alabama has taken a lot of heat for not scoring enough points last week at Arkansas and this team is sick of hearing about it and I'm sure practice was not that exciting for the players. Arkansas has a phenomenal defense as does Ole Miss and finally Bama can open up their top 30 offense on a A&M Defense that lacks defensive prowess. Alabama's young defensive players continue to get better and they will be sound on the defensive end as Bama's defense is evey bit as good as Ole Miss as its the offense they were lacking - and if there is no holding penalty near the end of the game, Bama in all honesty would have beat Ole Miss. Bama has as good if not better offense than A&M quite frankly and a substantially better defense which will likely make the difference here. Look for this contest be very similar to the Alabama vs. Florida score of 42-21 as Alabama might not let up on the gas as Coker gets in late and he continues to spread the offense out as well.

8-Unit Play. #329. Take Georgia Tech -2 over North Carolina (Saturday @ 7pm est)

This is a really nice power ranking differential that we will roll with here. We took UNC if you remember last week against Notre Dame and it was their bowl game of sorts as it was the highlight of their year. The caught Notre Dame on a bad spot as they were sandwiched in between some big games including looking ahead to FSU this week so UNC stepped up and played phenomenal with that great offense of theirs. But Georgia Tech has had UNC's number for years if you track this series. Tech has beat this team the last 5 years they have played and as they were a top 25 team, they come off a tough loss to Duke after their coach talked a bit of trash to Coach Cutliff. At the end of the day, Tech has a top 35 offense and a top 50 defense which is the key here. Tech comes off its first loss of the year as they lost at home to Duke and will be looking to bounce-back. The public is high on UNC after the Notre Dame loss and tight game and that's on them as UNC is not that good at all defensively and they are a spot team. Tech is sound defensively and should be able to keep them at bay for the most part. Tech is the same team that went on the road to beat the likes of Viginia Tech by 3 who is a top 30 power ranking team, beat a top 50 Miami of Florida team by 11 and just fell to a top 40 team. Now they face a team in UNC who is a top 60 team coming off a loss to Duke, a team over valued by the public and a defense outside the top 120 in the nation. When UNC played Va Tech (a similar benchmark to this game) the final score was 34-17. Though the socre might not be as wide spread, look for this contest to be around a 13 point differential and given the double-digit differential, we will roll with the team off a loss, a much better defensive squad and a team that has had UNC's number for many years. Yellow Jackets are 18-7-2 ATS against teams with a losing record and the Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

3-Unit Play. #390. Take Texas -12.5 over Iowa State (Saturday @ 8pm est)

The coronation of Charlie Strong likely begins with this game. This team has been steadily gettin better and you can tell how good his defense is in how well they played against Baylor only giving up 28 points. TCU has a fantastic defense and you saw them giving up around 60 points to this same Baylor team. Strong now gets a more athletic quarterback in Swoops who will grow with this offense and this is an absolute must win for this team. If they win this game, they move to 3-4 and build on a great game against Oklahoma where they hung tough and now look for a bowl birth as he has this team going in the right direction. Note the public likes Iowa State here and its a good public fade. At the end of the day, our power rankings always favor teams with strong defensive ratings, and with Texas having the 5th best defense in the nation and coming off facing two top ten caliber teams, it will be a sight for sore eyes as they face a team around the top 100. Texas according to our numbers are around the top 50. Look for Texas to bounce-back nicely here as they hold off Iowa State's offense and score around 30 points of their own in a contest that has the makings of a three touchdown victory.

3-Unit Play. #361. Take Under 65 Washington vs. Oregon (Saturday@ 8pm est)

Great public fade here. We'll roll with the Under as if there is one thing that Coach Peterson knows how to do its to get ready for the big game and get ready for great offenses. This is the toughest defense Oregon would have faced all year and they roll in as 3 touchdown favorites. Oregon could very well cover the large line here in part b/c the public is on the underdog here, but regardless of the side, we have this contest around 59 points so to see it at 65 is a reason to take note. Washington is a top 25 defense and they like to have control of the ball and they will look to keep the Oregon offense off the field. Note, this team gave up 7 points to California on the road dominating them 31-7. Peterson's team are some of the most well prepped and prepared teams and look for Washington to make this a possession type contest. Note that the public is on the over to a tune of 70% as well. The Under is 5-1 for the Huskies when they face a team with a winning record and the Under is 6-2-1 for the Ducks in their last 9 contests when they face a team with a winning record as well. Note the Ducks defense is ranked 30th as well so you have two top 30 defensive teams going at it which has gone under the radar and that's why we lean the Under here.

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Sheep

$1000:
368 Over 62 Rut-Osu open order*

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Jason Sharpe


6* Maryland -4
4* Western Michigan +3
4* Northwestern +6
4* Central Michigan -8
3* TCU -10
3* Purdue +14
3* S Florida -2