10-18-14

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Elite Sports Picks

T.C.U. -10 over Oklahoma St. (NCAAF)

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Insider Sports Report

5* Arkansas +3.5 over Georgia (NCAAF)
Range: +5.5 to +1.5

3* Duke -2.5 over Virginia (NCAAF)
Range: -1 to -5

3* Bowling Green -2.5 over W. Michigan (NCAAF)
Range: -1 to -5

3* Clemson -5 over Boston College (NCAAF)
Range: -3 to -7

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marc lawrence phone plays

TENN
NORTHWESTERN
IOWA
BC
ASU
TEX A&M

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College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 8

Looking to wager on the elite teams in college football this weekend? Don't have time to handicap every Top 25 matchup? Put your mind at ease and just cheat - with our NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet featuring all of Week 8's biggest games.

(14) Kansas State Wildcats at (11) Oklahoma Sooners (-8)

*Kansas State's rushing defense has been on point this season, allowing only 81.4 yards against and only allowing a total of three rushing touchdowns this season.

*The Sooners will have their first game at home since Sept. 9, marking the first time since 1999 the team has been away from the Palace on the Prairie for more than one month. Oklahoma has won their past 10 home games in a row, while going 5-5 ATS.

(4) Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers (+8)

*Baylor's offense has been on-fire in the first half this season. The Bears are outscoring opponents 104-21 in first quarters and 80-20 in second quarters this season.

*Though West Virginia had a big comeback win last week, coach Dana Holgorsen was not happy with his own performance. "In the first half, I probably got a little bit frustrated, because we weren't getting explosive plays in the run game, but we were averaging five, six yards a carry - which is successful," the fourth year coach said. "I have to be a little bit more patient with that."

(22) Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles (+6.5)

*Though Clemson walked away with a win against Louisville last week, they lost their starting quarterback. Deshaun Watson broke a small bone in his finger that will sideline him for a month. Also, backup QB Cole Stoudt did not practice ahead of the Louisville game and received injections to play.

*Boston College coach Steve Addazio spoke incredibly highly of the Clemson defense this week. ".I'm saying that in my career--predominantly in the SEC--I haven't seen a defense like this since we played Alabama in the [2009] SEC Championship Game. This is the most dominant defense I have seen. Period."

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at (13) Ohio State Buckeyes (-19)

*Rutgers is certainly not downplaying the significance of their matchup with the Buckeyes. “For me, in terms of games I’ve played this is definitely going to be in my top three all time,” senior David Milewski said.

*Urban Meyer has been dominant over coaches the first time he faces them. The 50 year old is 78-15 when facing the opposing coach for the first time.

(6) Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers (+13.5)

*Travel has not been kind to the Spartans offense. In MSU's two road games this season the Spartans are averaging 36 points per game, compared to 50.25 ppg at home.

*Indiana enters what could be their biggest game of the year with question marks at QB. Nate Sudfeld has already been lost to a shoulder injury, but it's being reported that freshman backup Chris Covington won't play either. That would elevate third-string freshman Zander Diamont to the starter role.

(21) Texas A&M Aggies at (7) Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)

*Over the Aggies two weeks they have averaged 25.5 points and have gone 12 of 35 on third downs compared to averaging 51.2 and going 34 of 63 on third down over their first five.

*After the Crimson Tide amassed 66 yards on 32 carries last week, there was no finger pointing happening. "Personally, I thought I played terrible," RT Austin Shepherd said. "I kind of take responsibility for it. I don't think any of us had a good game. Probably the worst game we've played as a unit just to be straight up."

(10) Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks (+3.5)

*Without Todd Gurley last week, the Bulldogs throttled Mizzou and you can thank the absence of their Heisman candidate back for that. “We had a chip on our shoulder as far as we don't have Todd (Gurley) and everyone thinks that the world is falling apart,” QB Hutson Mason said. “So we took it upon ourselves that we need to show everybody that there are 10 other guys on our offense..."

*If the Razorbacks expect to compete with Georgia they will need to tighten up their rush defense which has allowed 145.8 ypg and 8.4 rushing first downs a game.

(15) Oklahoma State Cowboys at (12) TCU Horned Frogs (-8.5)

*Even thought people want to point out increased blitzes against the Cowboys offense, coach Mike Gundy disagrees. "It looks worse because we don’t block them. It hasn't really been many more, a little bit, but not a lot. They show up a lot and it doesn't look good when you don’t pick it up. The blitz isn’t a real concern for us, just blocking base front is a concern for us because there’s a lot more guys in coverage."

*TCU's surge to the polls this season can be attached to their offensive increase. The Horned Frogs boast the nation's most improved power five conference unit (+165.2 ypg) from last season.

(24) Marshall Thundering Herd at FIU Golden Panthers (+21.5)

*Marshall is the only ranked team from C-USA, but that is not enough for the team. "I’m not satisfied with 25,” WR Tommy Shuler said. “I feel like we’re better than 25." The Herd ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards, points against and points for.

*Though FIU has already greatly improved over last season, the team still needs to develop the right attitude according to coach Ron Turner. ""We've got to learn how to play with that chip, that edge. (If) we get it back, we can be a good football team, win a lot of games. If we don't, we're not," the second year coach said. "We're not good enough just to go out there and play."

Colorado Buffaloes at (25) USC Trojans (-19)

*Trojans may be without starting CB Adoree Jackson after injuring his hip flexor against Arizona. The freshman did not practice on Tuesday and his status remains uncertain for the game.

*The Buffaloes have been dreading within the Pac-12 since they have joined the conference. Colorado has lost nine straight conference road games and are 2-13 in league road games since joining the Pac-12.

Tennessee Volunteers at (3) Ole Miss Rebels (-16.5)

*The Volunteers defense has been keeping them around the past two weeks, allowing opposing offenses a grand total of 192 yards passing (86 ypg). This has vaulted them into the top 20 in the nation in yards allowed and points against.

*Ole Miss has surrendered just 26 points in the first half of games so far this season, including just three in the first quarter.

(19) Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats (+7)

*Nebraska should be getting LB David Santos back in the lineup after having the bye week to heal. "I would say [Santos] has a lot of leadership and his knowledge of the game, it makes it a lot easier when you are playing next to someone and communicating and both on the same page," fellow LB Trevor Roach said.

*Despite arguably QB Trevor Siemian having his best game of the season last week, coach Pat Fitzgerald was still not impressed. “We threw the ball obviously not well enough to win the football game."

(5) Notre Dame at (2) Florida State Seminoles (-11.5)

*Coach Brian Kelly has some concerns about the game Saturday, but it's not really FSU. "Our problems have been self inflicted," the coach said. "So I'm more concerned about our self inflicted wounds than I am what may happen because of the environment."

*The offense for the Seminoles has been getting all the media attention, but the defense has been doing a great job of protecting leads. FSU ranks eighth in the country in red zone defense only allowing points in 65.22 percent of opponents trips within the 20.

Washington Huskies at (9) Oregon Ducks (-21)

*Through six games this season, the Huskies have surrounded only one turnover. If Washington keeps up that pace (.16 TO per game) then they will break the record for fewest turnovers in a season set by Clemson in 1940, Miami (OH) in 1966 and Notre Dame in 2000.

*In recent memory there may be no team that has dominated opponents quite like Oregon. All but eight of the Ducks 52 victories since 2010 have been by more than 14 points.

(20) Stanford Cardinals at (18) Arizona State Sun Devils (+3.5)

*Cardinals coach David Shaw has relished in facing the top teams in the nation. Shaw is 14-6 all time against AP Top 25 ranked teams.

*It is still undetermined in Sun Devils starter Taylor Kelly will be back or if it will be Mike Bercovici again. Kelly " is able to move the down markers in very different ways. Whether it’s with his legs, with the run game or just making great decisions," according to ASU coach Todd Graham. "I believe that (Mike) is just a great extension of him. Obviously, he brings a lot to it with his ability to create a rhythm passing game."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Notre Dame at Florida State

(5) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at (2) Florida State Seminoles (-11.5)

Second-ranked Florida State puts its school-record 22-game winning streak — and perhaps its hopes of repeating as national champion — on the line when it hosts No. 5 Notre Dame on Saturday. The Seminoles have dodged a couple of upset bids in their title defense and face their toughest test yet as they aim for their eighth straight win over a ranked team. The Fighting Irish could vault into the playoff picture with a victory but still have two more road trips scheduled against ranked opponents.

A loss wouldn't necessarily knock the Seminoles out of the four-team playoff picture, but their schedule is relatively weak compared to teams from other power conferences and could hurt them when considering other one-loss teams. "Anytime you play a high-ranked opponent you want to be successful because it gives you tons of credibility," Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher told reporters. "We don't look at it as an end-all game, but it's a very important game." Florida State has won five of seven all-time meetings, but the the Fighting Irish emerged victorious in the only previous clash in Tallahassee in 2002.

TV: 8:23 p.m. ET, ABC. LINE: Florida State -11.5.

LINE HISTORY: The opening the line sat at FSU-12.5, but action on Notre Dame has shifted the line to FSU -11.5.

INJURY REPORT: Notre Dame - N/A FSU - WR Rashad Greene (Prob-Foot), RB Karlos Williams (Ques-Ankle), DT Derrick Mitchell Jr. (Ques-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football. Temperatures will be near 85°F with no humidity and clear skies.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "With Jameis Winston behind center this becomes a showdown of two quarterbacks who have each never lost a regular season start on the college level. Interestingly, defending national champions are only 10-17-2 ATS since 1980 as favorites of less than 14 points a matchup of undefeated teams. The off-field distraction factor can’t help the Seminoles chances today." - Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened this at FSU -12.5 and moved up to -13.5 with the early action. We've since pulled the game off the board amid the uncertainty surrounding Jameis Winston’s status. If he plays I could see this reaching -16. If he doesn't we have to be careful because bettors hammered Clemson, and won, when he was suspended earlier this season." - John Lester Senior Lines Manager.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (6-0): The Irish have boasted one of the nation's top defenses for most of the season, but that reputation was dinged in last week's 50-43 win over North Carolina. If it turns into a shootout, Notre Dame's offense is in good hands with quarterback Everett Golson, who has passed for 16 touchdowns and rushed for a team-high four scores. Golson has thrown TD passes to eight different receivers, but his favorite target is Will Fuller, who has grabbed 35 receptions for 504 yards and seven TDs — all team-highs.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (6-0): While the Seminoles have kept along on the field, controversy continues to surround Heisman Trophy quarterback Jameis Winston, whose off-field distractions now include Florida State reportedly investigating whether he accepted payment for signing memorabilia. All is well between the lines for the offense, though, particularly Winston and star wideout Rashad Greene, who became the school's all-time leading receiver with 215 receptions after snagging six passes in a 38-20 win at Syracuse on Saturday and leads the ACC in nearly every receiving category. The defense has allowed opponents to move the ball but has stiffened inside the 20, allowing only 10 touchdowns on 25 red-zone trips.

TRENDS:

*Fighting Irish are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
*Under is 9-2-1 in Fighting Irish last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
*Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 home games.

CONSENSUS: 68.83 percent are backing the Fighting Irish +11.5.

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StatFox Super Situations

NHL | ST LOUIS at ARIZONA
Play On - Any team against the money line (ARIZONA) off a home blowout win by 3 goals or more against opponent after a low scoring road game where both teams scored 1 goal or less
40-16 since 1997. ( 71.4% | 27.8 units )

NHL | ST LOUIS at ARIZONA
Play On - Any team against the money line (ARIZONA) off a win by 2 goals or more over a division rival against opponent after a low scoring road game where both teams scored 1 goal or less
37-13 since 1997. ( 74.0% | 25.4 units )

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play Sat Kansas State + 8

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Hondo

Hondo State’s his case

Boise State and Fresno State totaled 64 Friday night, giving Hondo a half-point victory with the over that reduced his deficit to 1,090 van pelts.

Saturday; Mr. Aitch is counting on Michigan State to make big losers of the Hoosiers — 10 units.

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Saturday

Minnesota -13.5

Capitals -1.5 +135

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Win or Lose Sports Betting

315 SYR -5

324 MARY -5 327 VIR +3

335 W MICH +3

338 C MICH -8
352 SMU +14
360 ARIZ ST +4

368 OHIO ST -22
369 TEX AM +13.5
373 MICH ST -16.5

376 BC +5

378 OKLA -7
385 UTAH ST +5.5
388 MISS -16.5

393 KANSAS +13.5
402 LSU -9

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Asa

7* virginia

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The Sports Lab

Oregon -20.5 for 7 units

Indiana +15 or better for 7 units

Northwestern +7 for 5 units

Ball State +8 for 1 unit

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SB Professor Original NCAAF Picks

System Plays:
UTSA +12.5 (follow is a C bet)
SMU +13 (follow is an A bet)
Iowa St +12 (follow is an A or B bet)

Additional Plays:
W Virginia +8
Tulsa +2
Kansas St +7
Wake Forest +5
Ohio +3
Mid Tenn St +1
California +7
Kansas +13
New Mexico +9
Ball St +8
Oklahoma St +10
Wyoming +1.5
Missouri +5.5
Utah St +5.5
S Mississippi +9.5
Kentucky +10.5
Northwestern +6.5
Nevada +11.5
Hawaii +7.5

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Sports Book Breakers

5* West Virginia
4.5* Oklahoma St.
4.5* Washington
4* USC
4* Notre Dame
4*. Northwestern

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Today's NHL Picks

Tampa Bay at Vancouver

The Lightning head to Vancouver tonight to face a Canucks team that is coming off a 2-0 win at Edmonton last night and is 1-7 in its last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. Tampa Bay is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 18 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: San Jose at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.312; New Jersey 12.709 Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-105); Under

Game 3-4: NY Islanders at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 13.419; Pittsburgh 12.338 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 7 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-160); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+140); Over

Game 5-6: Florida at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida 12.478; Washington 11.586 Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-225); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Florida (+185); Over

Game 7-8: Boston at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 13.517; Buffalo 11.012 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-215); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-215); Over

Game 9-10: Colorado at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.674; Montreal 11.519 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 11-12: Columbus at Ottawa (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.528; Ottawa 12.297 Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-130); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-130); Under

Game 13-14: Toronto at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 12.709; Detroit 11.616 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-145); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Over

Game 15-16: Philadelphia at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.312; Dallas 12.897 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-165); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-165); Over

Game 17-18: Nashville at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 13.986; Chicago 12.885 Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-200); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+170); Under

Game 19-20: St. Louis at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.404; Arizona 12.899 Dunkel Line & Total: Arizona by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Over

Game 21-22: Tampa Bay at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 12.816; Vancouver 11.430 Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-130); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110); Over