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Every sharp and their brother are taking JAX plus the points this week. I understand this could potentially be a let down spot for Cleveland after destroying Pittsburgh last week but I really don't think so. Cleveland is going to be coming into this game with revenge after losing to JAX in December last year so I don't think Cleveland will take JAX lightly. The JAX run defense is terrible and we saw both Tate and Crowell run all over the Steelers defensive last week so that is happen again. Cleveland is near the top of the league in turnover ratio while the Jags are dead last. Cleveland should win the turnover battle and control the game with a 7 to 10 point win.
Here are your late consensus selections of NFL games for Sunday, Oct. 19.
VERY STRONG PLAYS: None
STRONG PLAYS: Arizona -3 1/2 Oakland
REGULAR PLAYS:
New Orleans +2 Detroit
Seattle -6 St. Louis
Jacksonville +5 1/2 Cleveland
Minnesota +5 1/2 Buffalo (Disagrees with a Pick of the Pole)
San Francisco--Denver UNDER 49 1/2
NORM'S LATE THOUGHTS: Not much left to handicap on the card again today. But I still feel the world is holding to high a regard of the 49ers. Denver's become a more solid defensive team and thus a far more solid all-around club from last year. So I'll recommend a late small play on:
***DENVER (-6.5 -115) 31 San Francisco 15
Sun Oct-19-2014 at 05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 476 Over/Under 50.5
After starting the season 1-2, the 49ers have caught fire recently winning their last three and sit just a half game behind Arizona for the division lead. They’ll look to make it four in a row as they travel to face the Broncos in the Sunday night spotlight before heading off to their bye the following week. The 49ers were impressive Monday night after a slow start but finished the game outscoring the Rams 31-3 for a 31-17 final. Colin Kaepernick was impressive as he passed for 343 yards at 9.5 yps while not getting sacked but the 49er run game was only held to 3.0 ypr. They’ll need better production on the ground this week but will find themselves facing the best defense they have seen this season. While Peyton Manning gets the headlines, the Denver defense has really played well, holding opponents that average 5.4 yppl to just 4.7 yppl overall with very good performances versus both the run and the pass. The Broncos rush defense in particular, however, has really stood out as they have only allowed 77 yards at 3.3 ypr against teams that average 122 yards at 4.5 ypr and I have them rated as best in the league. I like the match-up of the Denver rush defense being able to effectively contain the 49ers rush offense, especially with two of the Niners best offensive lineman (Iupati and Davis) dealing with/coming off injuries.
If the 49ers struggle to run the ball, it will be difficult for a one-dimensional offense to keep pace with a potent Broncos offensive machine. The Denver passing offense is elite while the 49ers defensive secondary is banged up and it looks like they will also be missing LB Patrick Willis in this game after he injured his toe last week. The Broncos qualify in 99-55-4 and 73-40-4 situations while San Francisco qualifies in a negative 24-58-2 situation that plays against them. We have good line value as well with my model being bullish on the Broncos at (-10.8). I’ll take Denv
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