10-21-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Moore

4* Giants

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River City Sharps

3 Units SF Giants -110

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Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee won on Monday in the NFL with the Texans/Steelers Over 44.5.

For Tuesday E&B have two wagers on the pitch.

(1) Roma +$280/Bayern-Munich

(2) A play on the Draw +$270

For Tuesday in MLB World Series Game One "Mr Chalk" likes the Royals Ev/Giants

Ben lee is 1-0 +$50 for week fifty two and 242-269-5 -$3240.

"Mr Chalk" is 91-64 -$474 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

The Texans obviously weren’t happy about Hondo’s deficit falling into three figures. How else to explain Monday night’s colossal collapse in which they gave up 24 points in three minutes? It was a debacle wrapped in a disgrace that put the debt at 1,050 otises.

Tuesday night: Mr. Aitch expects KC to keep the party going in Game 1 — 10 units on the one and only Jimmy Shields to out-duel that Bumgarner. Also, come the end of the Series, he expects the Royals to have the whole World in their hands.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lt lock

Ul Lafayette

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VegasNFLPicks

Arkansas State -2.5

The line have moved already heavily this morning in favour of Arkansas State, the Ragin Cajuns with massive injury problems,but even with the missing players Arkansas State is the better team on both ends, defense and offense

but it all starts with the defense, already 10 turnovers forced this season by the Red Wolves and 22 sacks , thats pretty impressive, I am sure Arkansas State will remain unbeaten in the Sun Belt after tonight,and after we were totally wrong last week against Texas State this week against the Red Wolves it will be very hard for ULL to repeat last weeks success

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Topshelfpicks

Carson K - Game #1 - Royals

When you think about Game 1, how don't you focus on the pitching match-up. Bumgarner vs. Shields. Well that's a no-brainer. Bumgarner doesn't lose on the road in the Post season. Shields will give up a few runs and come out in the 6th inning. Yes we all know about KC's bullpen. But will it even matter when the Gaints are winning 3-0 and Madison is still pitching in the 8th.

The above paragraph would be the easy way out. What I'm going to say now may sound dumb, please don't laugh. When i seen this pitching match up I just assumed it would be like SF-120 or -125. Just knowing that the public would be betting Bumgarner. Vegas is smarter then me, this line is low for a reason.

Everyone wants to know how the Royals will react when they lose a Post Season game. What I want to know is. How will the Giants react when their ACE finally loses a game on the road and they are now facing a KC team that won 9 straight when they head into Game 2?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James Jones

MLB - San Francisco Giants ML+100...(3*)

NCAAF - Under 57.5 Arkansas State University/U.L. Lafayette University-106...(1*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VegasButcher

San Francisco Giants -102 (Game #1)

Game 1 of the World Series is here. There is no odds-value on this one as I have this game at -104 Royals, so the current odds of -108 Royals is very accurate. But I feel there are enough advantages for the Giants in game 1 that it warrants a play.

First, let’s remove the ‘myth’ that defense and bullpen wins championships. That might have been the Royals’ winning formula so far, but those are not critical factors for a championship. Starting pitching and hitting are the two key factors. While KC has overall advantages on defense and in the BP, San Fran aren’t slouches in those areas either. Their BP doesn’t overpower hitters like KC’s does, but they are very effective in generating weak contact and keeping runners from scoring, as we’ve seen during the playoffs. Defensively, San Fran ranked 17th on the year, but they’re a bit better than that, ranking 14th in the final month of the season when Morse, and his subpar D, didn’t play the field at all. In any case, the two most critical factors in a baseball game are starting pitching and offense. And I believe San Fran has an advantage in both going into game 1. Let’s break it down.

Offensively, San Fran ranked 6th this year while KC was 18th. Neither team has much power (17th in ISO for SF and 22nd for KC), but San Fran had the superior wRC+ (105 vs 93) and wOBA (.325 vs .301). They will be able to utilize Morse as an offensive weapon in this series without worrying about his defense. Morse had a 133 wRC+ for San Fran this season, the 2nd highest mark on the team. Here are the numbers for San Fran’s lineup:



Posey 144;

Morse 133;

Pence 123;

Belt 116;

Sandoval 111;

Ishikawa 110;

Panik 107;

Blanco 107;

Crawford 102.



What is interesting is that every single one of San Fran’s hitters in today’s lineup, has a wRC+ greater than 100. That means that this season, every single one of their hitters was above average. Now let’s take a look at the Royals’ numbers:



Gordon 122;

Cain 111;

Aoki 104;

Hosmer 99;

Butler 97;

Escobar 94;

Perez 92;

Moustakas 76;

Infante 76.



Only 3 of these hitters were above average offensively this year. You could argue that Hosmer, Moustakas, Butler, etc. are better than this, and closer resemble their production in the playoffs than a 182-game regular season, but that’s another argument altogether. And even if that is true, their numbers wouldn’t be significantly better. There’s a reason why KC hit the fewest HR’s in the majors, even though they have a DH spot, unlike the NL teams. By comparison, Giants were 17th, and that’s while playing their home games in a ball-park that ranked 2nd worst in Fly-ball factor this year. I think it’s safe to say that San Fran will have an advantage offensively in this series, and in particular in game 1.



So what mitigates a good offense? Good pitching of course. Royals have a fantastic bullpen, probably the scariest unit in all of baseball, but to get to them, your starter has to give you 5-6 solid innings. This is where San Fran once again has a strong advantage tonight. Let’s compare year-long stats for each:



Bumgarner: 25% K-rate; 5.1 K/BB ratio; 0.9 HR/9; 3.0 ERA with 3.1/3.0/3.0 FxS and ranked #16 overall

Shields: 19% K-rate; 4.1 K/BB ratio; 0.9 HR/9; 3.2 ERA with 3.6/3.6/3.6 FxS and ranked 54th overall

Bumgarner has the better K-rate and stronger advanced metrics (by about 0.6 of a run). This season each starter faced today’s opponent once. Bumgarner had a 3.0 SIERA and 3.0 xFIP in that start while Shields came in at 3.8 SIERA and 3.6 xFIP when facing the Giants. Interestingly, these numbers match their season-long stats almost to a tee. In any case, one-game sample size is useless as both pitchers threw well in their respective starts against today’s opponent. What isn’t useless is each starter’s performance so far in the playoffs.

In 16 playoff innings, Shields has allowed 26 base-runners (21 hits + 5 BB’s) which translates to a 1.63 base-runner per inning (WHIP). By comparison, Bumgarner has allowed 24 base-runners, a number that is close to Shields’. Of course he’s done so in twice as many innings pitched (31.2), and has a 0.76 base-runner per inning rate. Basically, Bumgarner has pitched twice as many innings as Shields, and has allowed 2 fewer base-runners overall – that’s impressive. He has a 1.4 ERA in the post-season with a 0.6 HR/9 rate, and 5.6 K/BB ratio. By comparison, Shields has a 5.6 ERA with a 1.7 HR/9 rate, and 3.0 K/BB ratio. I think it’s pretty clear who has been a better pitcher in the playoffs so far, and it’s not even close. Even if you apply the ‘eye test’ to each pitcher’s last start, you can tell who the more composed and stronger pitcher is right now. Bumgarner went 8 innings and allowed only 5 hits in his last start, though 2 were HR’s. Both HR’s were in the 4th inning but that didn’t rattle him, as he proceeded to get 13 consecutive outs and pitch through the 8th inning. Now that’s impressive composure. By comparison, Shields allowed 10 hits in his 5 innings pitched against Baltimore, while giving up 4 ER’s. Orioles chased him out in the 5th after plating 3 runs, but with how hard they were hitting the ball throughout most of those 5 innings I’m surprised they didn’t score more. Now Shields will start game 1 of the World Series, with pressure at an all-time high. As poorly as he’s looked in these playoffs and especially in his last outing, there is just no way to back him from my perspective. It’s really hard to trust this struggling 32-year old pitcher who has logged the most innings in the regular season since 2007 and also the most in the majors this year. I’d much rather back the 25-year old stud pitcher like Bumgarner, whose velocity has been increasing over the last few months and who looks the part of a true ACE.

Finally, I want to point out that in this series, Royals are the ‘public team’. That has really nothing to do with anything but it helps explain why the odds shifted from +104 KC to -108 KC, a 12-cent change now. ESPN’s SportsNation held a poll asking people which team will win the World Series. 70% of the votes picked the Royals, and all but 2 states picked KC as well. The two states that didn’t pick KC were Nevada and California…those two states were split at 50/50, right down the middle. So the question is, how can even California, Giants’ home state, NOT have a majority favoring San Fran to win it all? Well, there is something to be said about people’s belief in “momentum” (there is no such thing in pro sports), unbeaten streaks (those are meant to be broken, besides San Fran’s 8-2 post-season record is just as impressive), and just overall infatuation with the ‘underdog’. Will a casual fan root for a team that is trying to win their 3rd World Series Championship in 5 years or a team that hasn’t won one in 29 years, the last time they actually made the playoffs. I think World Series is popular enough where the money that comes from casual fans is high enough to offset the money that comes from professional sharpies. I believe that is why the odds have shifted in this one and I do believe that it’s an overreaction by the public. In tonight’s particular matchup, San Fran is a better team, and I like them to win game 1 of the World Series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al DeMarco

10 Dime SBC
Lock of the Year

Arkansas St -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gabriel DuPont

Winning Day #3 of 4
40 Dime World Series
Total of the Year

SF/KC Under 6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Giants -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dennis Tyler

NHL (We Cover Spreads): 6-9 -17.14u

4* Nashville -148

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Trev Rogers

San Francisco Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

Tuesday Selection ...

My 30 dime selection is on Royals over the Giants. The current line on this game is +100 in Vegas and offshore. Please specify Baumgarner and Shields at the time of wager. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.

NOTE:

It's been a ridiculous run the last 5 weeks.


After my 30 dime winner on the Steelers last night, I have now hit 4 straight on Monday night and I'm 6-1 for the year.


Do they get much easier than my 100 dime winner on the Colts, a wire to wire 27-0 complete and utter destruction on Sunday?


I did have to sweat the 75 dimer on Saturday with Boston College a little.


5-2 Last Week Good For +210 Dimes of Net Profit

It doesn't get much better than 5 straight winning weeks.

+578 Dimes Of Net Profit Last 32 Days


Not a bad month's work if I don't say so myself.

It's not like I didn't tell the world this runs was coming. I told you it was.

It is the same exact run I went on from March thru June of this year and I am doing the same thing right now.

5 Straight Winning Weeks. I am talking about 5 in a row.

+578 Dimes Of Net Profit Last 32 Days. I am talking about +578 here folks.

Let's pick up 30 more dimes of net profit tonight and make it a +608 dime the last 33 days.


Life is good on the Langer the Banger bandwagon. Really good.

Enjoy game one of the world series..

ANALYSIS:

It's a wave I am going to ride until it ends.


The Kansas City Royals are as hot as any team I have ever seen rolling into the world series and I am not about to go against that streak tonight.


In the wildcard play in game they came back from 7-3 in the 8th against the Oakland A's to eventually tie it in the 9th and again down 8-7 in the 12th to score a pair to win it 9-8.


Then it was the Angels, best record in baseball, best record in baseball and what did that get them: Royals swept them 3-0.


Now came the Baltimore Orioles and their high powered offense, led the league in homers and runs scored and what did that get them: Royals swept them 4-0.


So the tally is 8 playoff games, 8 wins, 8-0.


I don't care who they play right now, I am not going against a team of "destiny" right now that has won 8 straight games. And they open the series at home!!!


With their bullpen as good as it is, you are playing a 6-inning game because you are not going to score off Herrera in the 7th, Davis in the 8th or Holland in the 9th.


A's couldn't do it, Angels couldn't do it and the Orioles couldn't do it.


I have no doubt in my mind the Giants won't do it either.


I expect Baumgarner and Shields to be solid all night and in a tight game late, the Royals will do what they have done these entire playoffs, figure out a way to win.


Get all over the home team to make it 9 in a row tonight.