10-23-14

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EZWINNERS

3* San Diego Chargers +7

I believe that motivation was different for these two teams last week as they saw different outcomes to their games. San Diego was pretty flat in their home loss to the Chiefs. Its possible that the Chargers were looking ahead to this national TV game against Peyton Manning and company that was just four days away. Kansas City was desperate for a win and had two weeks to prepare coming off of a bye week. The Broncos had a huge win on Sunday Night Football against the 49ers in the Peyton Manning tribute as everyone knew he would break Brett Favre's touchdown record. Now the Broncos must come down for that high in just a few day's to host a pissed of Chargers team. San Diego split with Denver last season as both teams won on the road. I don't expect this to be another Thursday night blowout. Take the points.

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Maddux Sports

10* Miami Hurricanes +1.5

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wayne root

thursday night play of month

no limit VA TECH

nfl play millionaire SD CHARGERS

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King Creole

Double-Dime Bet - Chargers / Broncos UNDER 51.5



2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Your optimum OU line in this game is 51.5 or HIGHER. Make sure you get a line so that if the game finishes RIGHT ON 51 points, that you cash a winner.

Wanna talk against the grain? You got it. We are well aware of the current OU tendencies this season in NFL Primetime games. They’ve gone 18-4 O/U already. That’s right. 18 OVERS and only 4 UNDERS. And we’re actually VERY confident to be going AGAINST that pattern of high-scoring results. Sharp Totals Players are already aware that the ‘Joe Public’ and the squares will be POUNDING this game Over the Total. That’s ok by me. In fact, the last time I looked…. 83% to 85% of the OU action on this game from the public is on the Over. That one-sided action is what I call a big-time ‘trap’. Don’t fall for it. Don’t get seduced by it. Let the squares play the Over… and we’ll join the sharps on the Under. Just go the other way and mark up a winner at around 11:30pm ET (8:30pm PT)…

This Denver / San Diego series has gone a perfect 0-3 O/U in the last three meetings. If we can go back to last year: The Chargers believe that they can get into the Bronco’s heads. They fully understand that they can probably not win in a shootout. So instead of a shootout, it’s a ‘grind out’ for San Diego. Control the ball on offense, and play keep away from Peyton Manning. In BOTH of last year’s meetings, San Diego held the ball on offense for 38 or more minutes. Result? UNDER by 10 points… and UNDER by 13.5 points.

A little-known statistical fact about this game that can play a BIG impact on the Total is: BOTH of these teams are ranked in the TOP TEN in overall DEFENSE on the season. After finishing #18 in defense last year, the BRONCOS have improved to #6 this season. They’ve allowed only 316 ypg on defense. For San Diego, the defensive improvement is even more significant. The CHARGERS finished as the #23 ranked defense last season, allowing 370 YPG. In 2014, San Diego is currently ranked as the 5th BEST defense on the year, allowing only 316 YPG (an improvement of 56 yards per game). Their average of only 16.3 ppg allowed on D is currently #3 in the entire league.

Denver is laying more than a TD in this game and the OU line is high. That’s a recipe for a (relatively) LOW-scoring outcome in division games… BIG division home favorites of 7 > points with an OU line of 48 > points (Denver) have gone 1-9-1 O/U in the last four seasons.
The Broncos come into this game off a 25-point win last Sunday night against the 49ers… 1-9-1 O/U last 4 years: All GAME 7 or 8 home teams off a SU win of 17 > points (Denver).

San Diego comes in with a record of 5-2 SU (.714) while Denver comes in with a 5-1 SU record (.833)… 1-8-1 O/U last 2 years: All division home favorites when BOTH teams (Broncos + Chargers) have a W/L percentage of > .666.
Last week, San Diego lost OUTRIGHT at home as a division favorite against the KC Chiefs (Our Dog of the Week winner)… So far THIS season, NFL teams off a SU division favorite loss (Chargers) have already gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U.

So the Chargers are off a 3-point home loss (vs KC) and a 3-point road win (vs OAK) in their last two games... 0-5 O/U last 4 years: All division teams off a SU loss of 3 < pts and a SU win of 3 > pts in their last two games (Chargers).
This is San Diego’s third STRAIGHT division game in a row… NFL road underdogs… in their THIRD straight division game in a row (Chargers) have gone 1-15 O/U since 2006 when the OU line is > 38 points!

We know that tendency is to slam a Denver OVER. Particularly since they’re on a 3-Game OVER streak (in addition to going 3-0 SUATS in their last 3). Think again… 1-9 O/U since 1993: All GAME 5 > home favorites of 9 < pts off BBB SUATS fav wins in a row… and BBB ‘Overs’ in a row (Denver).
Yes, we’re aware that Denver has scored 42 points… 31 points… and 41 points in their last three games... 0-7 O/U last 12 months: All NFL teams that scored 31 > points in EACH of their last three games (Broncos).

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StatFox Super Situations

NHL | CHICAGO at NASHVILLE
Play On - Any team against the money line (CHICAGO) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
78-24 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.5% | 47.3 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 2.0 units )

NHL | CHICAGO at NASHVILLE
Play On - Road teams against the money line (CHICAGO) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
35-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.1% | 25.4 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.0 units )

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Game of the Day: Miami at Virginia Tech

Miami Hurricanes at Virginia Tech Hokies (+3, 49)

Following a long layoff from ACC play, the Miami Hurricanes get back at it when they visit Virginia Tech on Thursday for a matchup of teams in dire need of a league win. The Hurricanes have not played since posting a 55-34 triumph over Cincinnati on Oct. 11 and have not faced an ACC foe since losing 28-17 at Georgia Tech on Oct. 4, a defeat that saw Miami surrender 318 rushing yards. The Hurricanes were the ones dominating on the ground the next time out, when they rolled up 335 yards versus the Bearcats.

The Hokies barely could comprehend such production with the running game after they managed only 26 rushing yards in a 21-16 loss at Pittsburgh last Thursday. The woeful effort in Virginia Tech's lowest-scoring performance this season has caused the staff to shake up the offensive line, including the insertion of freshman Wyatt Teller at left guard. The Hokies have won eight of the last 11 meetings, including three straight at home by an average of 19 points.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Hokies opened as 1.5-point faves but have moved all the way to +3. The total opened 48.5.

INJURY REPORT: Miami - OL Kc McDermott (questionable, leg), OL Taylor Gadbois (questionable, undisclosed). Virginia Tech - LB Dahman McKinnon (probable, knee), WR Isaiah Ford (probable, ankle), RB Marshawn Williams (questionable, leg).

WEATHER FORECAST: Temperatures will be in the high-40s under clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "This one has obviously seen a major spread swing. We sent out Hokies -3 (+105) with a total of 51.5. We’re currently dealing Miami -2.5 (-115). The initial action was sharp and the public piled on. More than 60 percent of our moneyline bets have come in on the home dog. The total has dropped 2.5 points and 70 percent of the wagers have come on the under." John Lester.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Major move in this game saw the Hokies move from -3 to +3. Word is it was wise guys play. Considering Miami is winless, 0-3, on the road this season and Frank Beamer’s 16-6-1 ATS home dog log in his career, I wouldn’t be one bit surprised to see the line come back Virginia Tech’s way by kickoff." Marc Lawrence.

ABOUT MIAMI (4-3, 1-2 ACC Coastal): Much of it has to do with the level of competition, but the Hurricanes have had wildly disparate results depending on the location of their games, going 4-0 at home with an average margin of victory of 22 points while dropping all three of their road contests by an average of 13 points. Standout freshman Brad Kaaya has thrown 11 touchdowns against three interceptions at home compared to five TDs and six picks on the road, while speedy wideout Phillip Dorsett has recorded all six of his scores in Miami. Duke Johnson, who has one TD in each of his last six games, has rushed for at least 90 yards in all seven contests thus far.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (4-3, 1-2): In addition to a shuffle along the offensive line, the Hokies hope to receive a boost in the running game in the form of Marshawn Williams, who may return from a sprained right ankle that kept him out of the Pittsburgh game. "He's doing well," coach Frank Beamer said at Monday's press conference. "I'm not sure he's going to play, but it's looking better all the time, I'll say that." Williams, a freshman, ran for 119 yards against Western Michigan on Sept. 27 and scored his third TD of the season the following weekend in a win at North Carolina.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Hurricanes are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Under is 17-4 in Hokies last 21 Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of bettors are supporting to Hokies.

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Today's NFL Picks

San Diego at Denver

The Chargers head to Denver on Thursday night where they are 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Broncos. San Diego is the pick (+8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+8 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23 Time Posted: 11:00 p.m. EST (10/22)

Game 103-104: San Diego at Denver (8:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 138.793; Denver 144.240 Dunkel Line: Denver by 5 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Denver by 8 1/2; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+8 1/2); Under

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Today's NHL Picks

Pittsburgh at Detroit

The Penguins look to bounce back from last night's 5-3 loss to Philadelphia and come into tonight's contest in Detroit with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games versus the Red Wings. Pittsburgh is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105). Here are all of today's NHL picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: NY Islanders at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 9.873; Boston 11.376 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-170); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Over

Game 53-54: Pittsburgh at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.402; Detroit 10.873 Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105); Over

Game 55-56: Arizona at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 19.812; Minnesota 11.475 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-190); 5 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-190); Under

Game 57-58: Chicago at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 13.221; Nashville 10.870 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-130); 5 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-130); Over

Game 59-60: Vancouver at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.447; St. Louis 11.923 Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-175); 5 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); Under

Game 61-62: Carolina at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.582; Calgary 10.497 Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-160); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+140); Over

Game 63-64: Columbus at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.612; San Jose 11.729 Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-180); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+160); Over

Game 65-66: Buffalo at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 9.837; Los Angeles 12.309 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-340); 5 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-340); Over

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NFL

Week 8

Chargers (5-2) @ Broncos (5-1)—Battle for first place in AFC West; Denver is 5-1 in last six series games, beating San Diego 24-17 in playoffs here LY, after Bolts had won 27-20 in regular season. Chargers had 5-game win streak snapped by Chiefs Sunday; they’re 2-1 on road, losing by point at Arizona- their two losses are by total of four points. Denver is on serious roll, winning/covering all three games since their bye, scoring 38 ppg (13 TD’s on 36 drives); Broncos averaged 8.8/9.9/10.5 yards per pass attempt in last three home games- they’re 14-5 as home favorites in Manning era, 2-2 this year. Bolts are 10-3-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, 2-0 this year- they were dogs at Buffalo in Week 3. League-wide, divisional home favorites are 8-11 against spread. Last three Denver games went over total.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Royals on Wednesday and likes Virginia Tech on Thursday.

The deficit is 1012 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo’s high on the horses

Hondo snapped his mini skid at two Wednesday night, scoring with the Royals to reduce the negative numbers to 1,050 porters.

Thursday night: Mr. Aitch will put his bucks on the Broncos to bolt past the Chargers — 10 units.

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Dr Bob

Miami Fl. -2

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Football Crusher
Connecticut +27.5 over East Carolina
(System Record: 17-4, won last game)
Overall Record: 17-21-1

Rest of the Plays
Virginia Tech +2.5 over Miami Hurricanes
Virginia Tech + Miami Florida OVER 49
East Carolina + Connecticut UNDER 54.5

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Hockey CrusherWashington Capitals -135 over Edmonton Oilers - pending
Chicago Blackhawks -122 over Nashville Predators
(System Record: 6-1, won last game)
Overall Record: 6-6

Rest of the Plays
Los Angeles Kings -1.5 over Buffalo Sabres
Calgary Flames -152 over Carolina Hurricanes
Pittsburgh Penguins -105 over Detroit Red Wings