10-28-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GiLzTips:

#GiLzMLB ((World Series GM6))

• [912] KC/SF O7 (-115) = [2U]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS BETTING PROF

10:35 PM 505. Houston Rockets -7*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers

UPDATED Series Price
KANSAS CITY +209 over San Fran
The Royals are -143 tonight with Yordano Ventura against Jake Peavy and that price has to be considered fairy accurate. Peavy has struggled and if everything goes perfect for him, he'll go five innings, six at the most. A more likely scenario is that Peavy will get tagged for at least two runs or more before Bruce Bochy gets him out of there. Peavy has struck out just three batters over his past nine innings in the post-season. He was the losing pitcher in Kansas City in Game 2 in which he allowed four runs in five innings and struck out one batter. Several Royals have outstanding career numbers against Peavy, as they saw plenty of him when he was with the South Side from 2010 to 2013. Peavy's fastball barely reaches 90 MPH and he his off-speed stuff is not even average. He'll put the ball in play and has to pray that all those hard hit balls will be right at defenders.


Ventura has started three post season games and the Royals are 3-0 in those starts. The kid brings a 98 MPH heater with nasty off-speed stuff and has even been compared to Pedro Martinez. He's still learning and there is a lot of pressure on him but he's proven that he does not get overwhelmed in any setting. Give Peavy an edge in experience but in terms of skills, these two are not comparable. One has to like the Royals' chances of taking this to a seventh game and that's the basis for this play. If this series goes the max, it'll be Tim Hudson on Wednesday against Jeremy Guthrie and the Royals will be a slight favorite, likely in the neighbourhood of -113. However, with this wager, we'll have them at +213, which is basically the same price you would get if you played them tonight straight up and parlayed those winnings onto tomorrow's game providing the Royals are in the -115 range. This future bet, however, provides us with an opportunity to hedge if we so choose to and so that's the way we are going to play it.

Our Pick
KANSAS CITY +209 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.18)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

apwins

NBA

Blowout of the night

Houston - 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

2* Dallas +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

LA Kings -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

20* Dallas +4

I look for the Dallas Mavericks to spoil the ring ceremony of the San Antonio Spurs tonight and to win this opener outright. I'll be taking the points for some added insurance.


Dallas wants revenge after losing in seven games to the Spurs in the opening round of the playoffs last year. They played the Spurs tougher than anyone in the playoffs, and I believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into 2014-15.


I absolutely love what Dallas did in the offseason. It brought back Tyson Chandler, who was the defensive force who helped them win the NBA Title a few years back. It also signed Chandler Parsons from the Rockets, who is one of the most efficient players in the NBA who can do a little bit of everything. Jameers Nelson, Devin Harris & Raymond Felton will all help combine to replace Jose Calderon at the point.


I don't put a ton of stock into the preseason, but it's worth noting that the Spurs went 2-5 in the preseason. They even lost overseas to Alba Berlin in their preseason opener. I look for them to start the regular season slow as well as they just won't have that same fire they did last year after losing the NBA Finals the year before.


One big development is that Kawhi Leonard, the 2014 NBA Finals MVP, won't be suiting up tonight. He averaged 23.7 points and 9.3 rebounds while shooting 68.6 percent in the final three games against the Heat. He is dealing with an eye infection that has kept him out for over two weeks. Leonard is worth the most wins above replacement of all the Spurs this season.


Leonard isn't the only Spur who is banged up right now. They will also be without starting center Tiago Splitter and key bench player Patty Mills. Splitter has a calf injury and will be out fo r this game and possibly a few more, while Mills isn't expected to return until February due to a torn rotator cuff.


Dallas is 16-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. The Mavericks are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years. Dallas is a sensational 50-20 ATS in its last 70 road games overall. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

3* NBA Opening Night No Doubt ATS Rout on

Lakers +6.5


The Lakers are showing great value as a 6.5-point home dog against the Rockets. This is not the same Los Angeles team that won just 27 games last year. They might not have what it takes to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference, but they should be highly competitive, especially at home. Kobe Bryant has something to prove this year and all this team has heard is how they aren't going to be any good. This should have them coming out of the gate playing with a lot of energy and passion against a top team from last season.

I think a lot of people are underestimating the additions the Lakers made in the offseason. Not only do they get back Kobe, but they brought in Jeremy Lin to help at the point, drafted Julius Randle and signed underrated free agent power forward Carlos Boozer. Having Lin help this team underst and the Rockets schemes should also help in this one. New head coach Bryan Scott has worked this team hard in the offseason and is making defense a priority, which I think could catch some teams off guard after last year when the Lakers finished 29th in the league in scoring defense (109.2 ppg).


Houston on the other hand was unable to improve their roster in the offseason. Most notably they weren't able to bring back Chandler Parsons, who I believe was the one player outside of Harden and Howard that they couldn't afford to lose. Parsons did it all for the Rockets, averaging 16.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.19 steals, on 47.2% shooting from the field and 37.0% from behind the arc.


I look for Los Angeles to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but I like their chances of winning outright. Take the Lakers!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Topshelfpicks

Carson K

Avalanche +105
I went with them the other day at home and they won.. I see them getting this one and a few more before heading to the East Coast.. Plus that's what they seem to do when they play each other, home team wins. 4 games last year with the home team winning each time.

Coyotes +135
Don't know how much this matters but Hanzal returns and he did well last year against TB. Arizona did beat them twice last season, so at +135 I'll take a chance

Flyers +104
Like i said, I'm just learning the game of Hockey. But I'm not new to gambling. If the Kings are so good and the Flyers have so many issues, why is the line so low?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBAPicks - Lakers +7

Opening Night and the LA Lakers host the Houston Rockets,the 2014 Lakers are shocked before the tip off after Steve Nash will not be available for the whole season after a back surgery that most likely will end his great career

lets take a short look at both teams, Kobe Bryant is back after 2 serious injuries with a lot of anger ,he wants to silence all his critic voices that already wrote him off,but the preseason showed that he still is one of the best and can lead the Lakers,the Lakeshow can only surprise,with Julius Randle they have a talented rookie who looks more than ready for the NBA,Carlos Boozer is a great addition to the Lakers roster with excellent shooting and rebounding skills,the Lakers are a good team from behind the arc and have a pretty good big man rotation, after Steve Nashs injury the point guard position is a concern as Jeremy Lin is a better scorer than playmaker, with Nick Young they have one of the best bench players in the league, overall we dont see the Lakers that bad as many others do and especially at the start of a new season i am sure they will try to show what they are made off on tuesday night

if they want to beat the Houston Rockets they have to stop the pick and roll from the dynamic duo James Harden/Dwight Howard which is nearly impossible , James Harden worked hard on his defensive skills during the World Championships which also helped him to further improve his offensive play,you can expect big things from a healthy Dwight Howard,the sore back seems history

Harden have with Patrick Beverly and the new arrival Trevor Ariza two great defensive players next to him, but careful Ariza likes to slow down after signing new contracts,there are no new super stars on the roster but lots of roster changes, half the Rockets team is new and they might need some time, so overall we like the Lakers for tomorrow night at home plus the points and this is our first pick of the new season

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gameday Sports Network Steve Corsi

TUESDAY 10/28/14 VIP HIGH ROLLER CLUB PICKS:
50* NBA New Orleans OVER 195½
50* NBA Lakers UNDER 205½
40* NBA Dallas UNDER 204½
40* NBA New Orleans -10½
40* MLB Kansas City OVER 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dives Handicapping MLB
KC Royals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Treys Picks



NHL Chicago -145


MLB Kansas City -135
NBA Dallas/San Antonio OVER 204

18-2 L/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino
PROBABLES: (14-13)


Today's probables - NHL: {parlay - Boston (ML) and NY Islanders (ML) (+158)}, Vancouver (PL+130), NBA: rockets/lakers under 207


POD: (6-3) +3.42 units

Today's POD - Vancouver (PL+130)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Lawrence

3* MLB Kansas City -140