11-8-14

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Dave Essler

Triple Dime NC State

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Nfac

Western Kentucky -7 -120 400$
San Jose state +3 -120 400$

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Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary CFB Pick for November 8th, 2014

Game: UTEP Miners @ W. Kentucky Hilltoppers
Time: Saturday 11/08 4:00 PM Eastern
Pick: UTEP +8 (-105) at 5dimes

Western Kentucky has some issues. Their last four games have not been pretty as they have managed just a single win vs. Old Dominion. Old Dominion has allowed 41 points or more in six straight games, and Western Kentucky needed most of the 66 points they scored in that one to get the win 66-51. This is a team that has given up 500 yards or more in each of their last four games, and have allowed just shy of 50 ppg. There comes a point in time when you have to stop someone but the Hilltoppers just haven't been able to do it. Last week their offense couldn't get it going and they went down 59-10. UTEP has made great strides and have won three straight games, and in the process they have out-scored their opponents 111-49. The take here is they obviously can score, and will score a lot against Western Kentucky, but they have also allowed just 16.3 ppg in their last three so they certainly have a shot at getting a few more stops here. The Hilltoppers are just 1-6 ATS after allowing 280 passing yards in their previous game, which has become the norm, allowing over an average of 350 yards per game in their last four. Play the points on UTEP.

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StatFox Super Situations

CFB | WISCONSIN at PURDUE
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (PURDUE) terrible passing team (<=5.6 PY/Att.) against a good passing defense (5.6-6.4 PY/Att.)
97-93 since 1997. ( 51.1% | 0.0 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | 0.0 units )

CFB | OHIO ST at MICHIGAN ST
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (OHIO ST) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off a home win
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

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EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Saturday

I'm not playing anything on Thursday or Friday. Thursday night I would lean towards laying the points with the Bengals in the NFL, but I'm not feeling it right now and don't want to force any plays. Two plays for Saturday's college football.

-EZ


4* (125) Michigan Wolverines -1

Michigan head coach Brady Hoke's job is on life support and this week's opponent should allow Hoke to hand on to his job for at least one more week. This game is critical as Michigan must win two out of their last three games to become bowl eligable and their last game of the season is at Ohio State. The Wolverines should also have some confidence coming into this game after last week's 34-10 win against Indiana. Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner threw for two touchdowns and he got help from running back Drake Johnson who rushed for 108 yards and two touchdowns himself as the Wolverine defeated the Hoosiers for the 19th straight time. Michigan has also dominated this Northwestern team winning thirty out of the last thirty four meetings. Michigan has a top ten defense and they should feast on the struggling Wildcat offense that is 90th in the nation in passing yards, 107th in rushing yards and just 116th in points scored. Lay this short number with the Wolverines.


3* (195) Kansas State Wildcats +7 (-$120)

Just like Ole Miss and Auburn last week, this matchup is most likely an elimation game for the national championship. TCU is the team in the Big XII that is getting all of the attention, while Kansas State has been flying under the radar. The Wildcats only loss came against Auburn in a game that K-State could have easily won. The Wildcats were not out classed by Auburn in any way and I think they match up well with TCU. Last week was the first time this season that the Frogs did not cover the Vegas spread. TCU is coming off of an emotional win as they needed five West Virginia turnovers to escape Morgantown last week with a one point win in a game that they trailed all the way. The Frogs could have a hard time starting this game with the same intensity after that big win and they are laying signigicant points against a very good team. Kansas State knows how to play on the road. The Wildcats have already beat Oklahoma in Norman this season and since 2010 head coach Bill Snyder's K-State team is 11-1 against the spread as a road underdog. Take the points.

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Art Aronson 10* Mich st under

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Nom Hitzges
COLLEGE

DOUBLE PLAY: Oklahoma -5 Baylor

SINGLE PLAYS

Michigan -1 1/2 Northwestern
Kentucky +10 Georgia
Iowa PICK Minnesota
Wisconsin -17 Purdue
Louisville -3 Boston College
Houston -18 Tulane
Rice -10 UTSA
Texas +3 1/2 West Virginia
Tulsa -14 SMU
UTEP +7 1/2 W. Kentucky
Florida Atl. -3 North Texas
Kansas State +6 TCU
Auburn -23 Texas A&M
LSU +6 1/2 Alabama

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Prediction Machine Totals


Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick%
156 12:00 PM SMU @ TULSA 55 67.5 Over 60.7
146 3:00 PM GAST @ TROY 63 73.5 Over 58.7
118 12:00 PM PSU @ IND 44 38.8 Under 58.5
188 8:00 PM OHIOST @ MSU 58 52.1 Under 57.4
136 7:30 PM FLA @ VANDY 45.5 41.1 Under 57.2
166 6:30 PM UVA @ FLAST 55.5 47.7 Under 56.8
180 4:00 PM GASO @ TXST 61.5 69.6 Over 56.7
148 12:00 PM UTSA @ RICE 48 43.2 Under 56.6
122 12:00 PM LATECH @ UAB 58.5 52.5 Under 56.6
162 8:00 PM ALA @ LSU 45.5 49.4 Over 56.2
174 6:30 PM IDAHO @ SDSU 54 61.4 Over 56.1
172 4:00 PM AF @ UNLV 55 62.6 Over 55.6
150 3:30 PM FIU @ ODU 61.5 56.2 Under 55.6
194 10:00 PM OREGON @ UTAH 60 65.8 Over 55

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BeatYourBookie
SATURDAY


10* Play Baylor +6 over Oklahoma (Top NCAA Play)


Baylor is 23-10 ATS in all games over the last three seasons
Baylor is 9-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less in their last game




10* Play Arizona State -2 over Notre Dame (Top NCAA Play)


Arizona State is 22-4 SU when playing as a favorite the last three seasons
Arizona State is 14-4 SU in home games the last three seasons




10* Play Ohio State +3.5 over Michigan State (Top NCAA Play)


Ohio State is 10-3 ATS when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points
Ohio State is 5-1 ATS over the last six games




10* Play Utah +8 over Oregon (Top NCAA Play)


Utah is 9-2 ATS coming off two or more UNDER the totals
Utah is 7-1 ATS in all games this season

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Winning Angle Football
Play Baylor +6 over Oklahoma (NCAA)
12:00 PM EST


Baylor has covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games when playing as an underdog and they have covered the spread in 6 consecutive games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in their last game. Baylor has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games when playing in weeks ten through thirteen and they are averaging 50 points a game on offense this season.




Play Arizona State -2 over Notre Dame (NCAA)
3:30 PM EST


Arizona State has covered the spread in three consecutive games coming off a game where they forced no turnovers and they have covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points. Arizona State has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games coming off two or more UNDER the totals and they are averaging 34 points a game on offense this season.




Play UNLV +5.5 over Air Force (NCAA)
4:00 PM EST


Air Force has lost 12 of the last 15 games against the spread when playing as a favorite and they have lost 15 of the last 20 games against the spread vs. conference opponents. Air Force has lost 12 of the last 15 games against the spread coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have lost 8 of the last 9 games against the spread coming off a win against the spread in their last game.




Play Kansas State +6.5 over TCU (NCAA)
7:30 PM EST


Kansas State has covered the spread in 17 of the last 22 games vs. conference opponents and they have covered the spread in 16 of the last 21 games when playing as a road underdog of 7 points or less. Kansas State has covered the spread in 11 of the last 13 games when playing after the 1st month of the season and they are averaging 38 points a game on offense this season.




Play LSU +6.5 over Alabama (NCAA)
8:00 PM EST


Alabama has lost 6 of the last 7 games against the spread when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and they have lost 7 of the last 11 road games against the spread. LSU has covered the spread in four of the last five games and they have covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 home games this season.




Play Ohio State +3.5 over Michigan State (NCAA)
8:00 PM EST


Ohio State has covered the spread in five of the last six games and they have covered the spread in 10 of the last 13 games when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points. Ohio State has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game and they are averaging 45 points a game on offense this season.




Play Utah +8 over Oregon (NCAA)
10:00 PM EST


Utah has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games and they have covered the spread in three consecutive home games when playing as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Utah has covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games coming off two or more UNDER the totWinning Angle Football
SATURDAY CANADIAN FOOTBALL


Play Montreal +3 over Hamilton (TOP CFL PLAY)
Play Edmonton +3 over Saskatchewan (TOP CFL PLAY) als and they are averaging 41 points on offense in home games this season.

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Sheep
Kansas +4 Open Order

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NFAC:

164 UNDER 72 Bay/Okl ($500)
188 UNDER 56 OSU/MSU ($300)

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GMC-CFB Selections
130 Purdue +17.5
134 Syracuse +3.5
196 TCU -5.5

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Football Crusher
Wyoming +6.5 over Utah State - pending
Boston College +3 over Louisville
(System Record: 26-4, won last game)
Overall Record: 26-24-2


Rest of the Plays
Ohio State +3.5 over Mich State
Utah +8 over Oregon
Air Force -4.5 over UNLV

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Hockey Crusher
Edmonton Oilers + Buffalo Sabres OVER 5 - pending
Calgary Flames -110 over Florida Panthers
(System Record: 16-1, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 16-10

Rest of the Plays
New York Islanders -120 over Arizona Cayotes
Tampa Bay Lightning -155 over Columbus Blue Jackets
Ottawa Senators -139 over Winnipeg Jets