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NBA | PHILADELPHIA at TORONTO
Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (TORONTO) after allowing 85 points or less against opponent after allowing 110 points or more
98-51 since 1997. ( 65.8% | 41.9 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
NBA | MIAMI at DALLAS
Play On - Any team vs the money line (MIAMI) after 2 or more consecutive losses, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
213-144 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.7% | 73.7 units )
NBA | CHARLOTTE at LA LAKERS
Play Under - Any team vs. the 1rst half line after allowing 105 points or more in a loss to a division rival, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
NFL | DALLAS at JACKSONVILLE
Play Against - Any team (DALLAS) off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
NFL | CHICAGO at GREEN BAY
Play Against - Road underdogs of +155 to +325 vs. the money line (CHICAGO) poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games
166-36 since 1997. ( 82.2% | 0.0 units )
5-1 this year. ( 83.3% | 0.0 units )
NFL | KANSAS CITY at BUFFALO
Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in weeks 10 through 13
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units)
Hot Teams
-- Nets won three of their last four games. Orlando won its last couple games, after losing first four.
-- Detroit won last two games (both 98-95) but is 0-5 vs spread, 0-3 as a favorite.
-- Sacramento won/covered its last five games.
-- Toronto won/covered five of its first six games.
-- Mavericks won four of their last five games. Miami won/covered four of its first six games.
-- Warriors won/covered their first five games.
-- Portland won/covered three of four home games.
-- Hornets won last two games by 7-3 points; four of their six games were decided by 3 or less points.
Cold Teams
-- Utah lost four of first six games, but covered three of last four.
-- Thunder lost five of first six games (2-0 as home dog).
-- 76ers lost first six games but covered last three.
-- Phoenix lost three of last four games (0-4 vs spread).
-- Nuggets lost last four games, allowing 113.4 ppg.
-- Lakers lost their first five games (2-3 vs spread).
Series Records
-- Nets won six of last eight games with Orlando.
-- Jazz won eight of last ten games with Detroit.
-- Thunder won 10 in row, 15 of last 16 vs Sacramento.
-- 76ers lost five of last six games with Toronto.
-- Heat won their last six games with Dallas (4-2 vs spread).
-- Warriors won eight of last ten games with Phoenix.
-- Portland was 4-0 vs Denver LY, with last three wins by 6 or less.
-- Lakers won five of last six games with Charlotte.
Totals
-- Under is 13-4-1 in last 18 Orlando-Brooklyn games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Utah games.
-- Five of six Thunder games stayed under total. Last three Sacramento games went over. Last six Thunder-King games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Philly-Toronto games went over the total.
-- Last three Miami games stayed under the total.
-- All three Golden State road games stayed under.
-- Last three Denver games went over the total. Five of six Portland tilts stayed under.
-- Three of last four Charlotte games went over total; five of last six LA-Charlotte games stayed under.
5* (251) Dallas Cowboys -1 & (272) Green Bay Packers -1
Dallas takes on Jacksonville in London and the Cowboys will have the services of quarterback Tony Romo for this one. But Romo is not the key to this game. The key is the Cowboy's running game with DeMarco Murry that I expect to have a big game. Jacksonville's run defense is 28th in the league allowing over 123 yards per game. The Packers and Bears are both coming off of bye weeks. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is said to be 100% healthy. Chicago is a mess. Quarterback Jay Cutler is turning the ball over at an alarming rate while the Bear's defense has given up an NFL worst 32 points per game in their last five games. Chicago is also tied with Atlanta for the highest passing yards allowed per attempt. Mr. Rodgers should have a huge night. Tease Cowboys and Packers for six points.
3* (256) Buffalo Bills +1
Kansas City has been playing extremely well, but this is a tough spot flying to the east coast to face the Bills with a showdown against Seattle on deck next week. Buffalo is coming off of a bye so they have had two weeks to game plan. Quarterback Kyle Orton has been just what Buffalo needed on offense. Having Orton under center has allowed the Bills to get their number one pick wide receiver Sammy Watkins involved in the offense. That is something that EJ Manual's inability to throw the ball down field didn't allow Buffalo to do earlier in the season. Buffalo has shown the ability to grind out enough offense to pick up wins over both Detroit and Miami this season which are two very good defensive teams. The Kansas City offense is not a very explosive passing team. Quarterback Alex Smith is efficent and doesn't make many mistakes, but containing the running game will be key for Buffalo which I think they will do. The Bills defense has been legit for over a season now as they ranked 8th in the NFL in total defense last year and are 9th so far this season. Play on Buffalo.
3* (261) New York Jets +3.5
The Steelers are on a huge roll as Big Ben has thrown for twelve touchdowns in the last two games and really has the Pittsburgh offense clicking. These big offensive numbers really mask the fact that the Pittsburgh defense is not very good as they rank just 23rd in the NFL in total defense. The Jets have been a train wreck this season and will be looking to avoid a franchise record nine game losing streak. This is week two of Michael Vick starting at quarterback. Last week against Kansas City's fifth ranked defense the Jets offense was much more efficient and they actually out gained Kansas City in the loss. Vick is getting Percy Harvin heavily involved in the offense and he should give this Steelers defense that will be without defensive captain Troy Polamalu (knee) trouble. This could be a real flat spot for the Steelers coming off of a payback win against the biggest rival the Ravens with a Monday Night game on deck before their bye week. The Steelers have lost four out of their last five games after playing the Ravens. Hold your nose and take the points.
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