11-15-14

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EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Saturday

Five college football plays on my card for Saturday. Best of luck!

-EZ


4* (368) Georgia Bulldogs -$135

Auburn had their national championship playoff bubble burst last week with their home loss to Texas A&M and now they must hit the road to face a Georgia team that will welcome running back Todd Gurley back to the field. The Bulldogs now have quite a 1-2 punch at running back as Gurley's replacement 228 pound Nick Chubb rushed for 671 yards while Gurley was sidelined. The Bulldogs will be seeking revenge for Auburn's last second win that came on a 73 yard tipped touchdown pass on 4th and 18. The Tigers luck seems to finally have run out. After a huge run against the spread last season, Auburn is just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games. Lay the points.


4* (387) Missouri Tigers +4

Texas A&M pulled off a shocker last week at Auburn, but I will gladly fade them this week. The Aggies have to be feeling real good about themselves after the huge win last week, but there are still issues in College State. The Aggie defense allowed 582 yards in the win last week and Auburn made some key mistakes to set A&M up for some easy scores. Missouri is looking good in the SEC East and this Tigers team has won seven straight true road games and are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten games away from home. Coming into College Station should not be an issue for this team of road warriors and I will take any points that Vegas wants to give me. Play on Missouri.


3* (341) Virginia Tech Hokies +4

I think this is a great spot for Virginia Tech. The Hokies come into this game off of a bye week seeking revenge for last years defeat at the hands of the Blue Devils. These are also unusual roles for these two teams in this matchup as Duke is the favorite after being a double digit underdog in the last ten meetings between these two teams in ACC play. The Hokies always find a way to get head coach Frank Beamer to a bowl game and an upset win here would go a long way to helping that cause. Duke is having a great season with only one loss but they have not been dominate and have actually lost the stat battle (they are outgained by an average of over 100 yards in ACC play) in most of their wins. Take the points.


3* (395) Mississippi State Bulldogs +10

Many people don't view Mississippi State to be the best team in the nation and they expect the Tide to Roll right through the Bulldogs, but I don't think that will be the case. Alabama was very lucky to escape Death Valley last Saturday night with an overtime win in a game that had to take its toll. The Bulldogs had a scrimmage last week as they tuned up for this huge game. Similar foes are not always a true indication of things, but you can't overlook that fact that the Bulldog's offense gained 572 total yards at LSU. Mississippi State is also on a 10-4 run against the spread and have covered five straight as an underdog. Let's also not forget Alabama's field goal kicking issues. Take the points.


3* (371) Florida State Seminoles -$140

Most of the experts are picking Florida State to finally lose a game this week in Miami. As much as I would love to personally see that happen I'm not buying it. Florida State is no where near the team that they were last season, but they keep finding ways to win. FSU has been horrible against the spread this season and have started off most of their games very slowly. With this being the last big road block from another undefeated season I still believe that the Seminoles win this game. Miami has been able to run the ball with a lot of success lately, but the strength of the Florida State defense has against the run. This is a big stage for Miami and I don't believe they are ready to take the next step. Play on the Noles.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

This game is going to follow the same premise as another one of our premium selections this week. We have the 20th ranked LSU Tigers travelling to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks, who are winless in their last 13 SEC games…and Arkansas is favored. This is another example of leading the cattle to slaughter in our humble opinion. The weather is going to be a major story in this game as they are expecting a wintry mix in Arkansas by Saturday night, which means the advantage clearly moves to the team that can run the ball. And while the Razorbacks have struggled this season, the one thing Bret Bielema’s team can do is run the football. We are also looking at a question of how much LSU has in the tank after their heartbreaking home loss to Alabama last weekend. LSU has really struggled stopping the run, especially on the road, giving up an average of 230 yards per game on the ground. The Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. teams with a winning record and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. We believe this is a great spot for Arkansas and really believe they will get their first SEC win of the year on Saturday night. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – ARKANSAS -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Southern Illinois at St. Louis

The Salukis open their season tonight at St. Louis where they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Billikens. St. Louis is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Billikens favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-7). Here are all of today's NCAA Basketball picks.

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 15 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 521-522: NC-Wilmington at Old Dominion (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 46.114; Old Dominion 61.664 Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 15 1/2 Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 13 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (-13 1/2)

Game 523-524: Appalachian State at Ohio (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 48.547; Ohio 58.552 Dunkel Line: Ohio by 10 Vegas Line: Ohio by 12 Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+12)

Game 525-526: Bowling Green at Drake (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 48.170; Drake 54.799 Dunkel Line: Drake by 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Drake by 3 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Drake (-3 1/2)

Game 527-528: Cal Poly at Nevada (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 53.616; Nevada 60.862 Dunkel Line: Nevada by 7 Vegas Line: Nevada by 3 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-3 1/2)

Game 529-530: Dartmouth at St. Bonaventure (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 49.957; St. Bonaventure 61.504 Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 11 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-6 1/2)

Game 531-532: Kent State at Youngstown State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 50.164; Youngstown State 55.454 Dunkel Line: Youngstown State by 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Kent State by 3 Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (+3)

Game 533-534: Southern Illinois at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 56.421; St. Louis 65.964 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 9 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Louis by 7 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-7)

Game 535-536: UL-Monroe at UAB (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 47.718; UAB 57.226 Dunkel Line: UAB by 9 1/2 Vegas Line: UAB by 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UAB (-7 1/2)

Game 537-538: The Citadel vs. Air Force (5:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 539-540: VMI at Army (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 541-542: SE Missouri State vs. San Diego (5:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 543-544: Boise State at Loyola-Marymount (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 545-546: Manhattan at Florida State (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 54.978; Florida State 68.188 Dunkel Line: Florida State by 13 Vegas Line: Florida State by 10 Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-10)

Game 547-548: North Dakota at Northern Iowa (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 47.105; Northern Iowa 62.791 Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 15 1/2 Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 22 Dunkel Pick: North Dakota (+22)

Game 549-550: Austin Peay at Western Kentucky (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 42.328; Western Kentucky 56.759 Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 14 1/2 Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 12 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-12 1/2)

Game 551-552: Fairfield at Duke (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 553-554: Tulsa at Oral Roberts (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 60.959; Oral Roberts 58.030 Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 3 Vegas Line: Tulsa by 6 Dunkel Pick: Oral Roberts (+6)

Game 555-556: Montana at Colorado State (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montana 48.494; Colorado State 61.195 Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 12 1/2 Vegas Line: Colorado State by 17 Dunkel Pick: Montana (+17)

Game 557-558: Portland State at USC (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 49.808; USC 58.285 Dunkel Line: USC by 81/2 Vegas Line: USC by 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+10 1/2)

Game 561-562: Gardner-Webb at LSU (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Gardner-Webb 46.028; LSU 67.096 Dunkel Line: LSU by 21 Vegas Line: LSU by 14 Dunkel Pick: LSU (-14)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph's
Super Pick Texas - 2 1/2
Gold Keys UTEP-6, ARIZONA -9, CENT MICHIGAN -17, STANFORD -8,
MISSOURI + 3 1/2, MARSHALL -21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DELICATE TIPS

White star Brusels win
Switzerland 1.5,2AH

8-2 at last 10 plays.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DETROIT GODFATHER

5 units

(NCAAF) Kansas +28 (-110)

3 units

(NCAAF) Mississippi State +10 (-110)
(NCAAF) Georgia -2.5 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

2-Unit Play. Take #324 Penn State (-11) over Temple (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 15)

I think that this game means more to Penn State than it does Temple. I know that sounds odd because it is a smaller in-state school taking on the Big Bad Penn State Boys, but the Nittany Lions are on a mission this year. They want to get back to a bowl game and they don’t want to give games like this away. Temple is coming off a ridiculous win over ECU and a deflating loss to Memphis. Yes, they covered the spread in those two games. But the Owls have been outgained in four straight (by an average of 175 yards per game) and they haven’t faced a quarterback as good as Christian Hackenberg. I just don’t see Temple topping 10 points in this game and I don’t see them holding the Lions under 20. I think this game will end up somewhere around a 27-6 affair and I see the Lions getting the cash.

2-Unit Play. Take #327 Iowa (-4) over Illinois (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 15)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 56.0 – Iowa at Illinois (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 15)

Iowa was humiliated last week and now they have to pack up and go back on the road. I’m going right back to them. This is not a good Iowa team. They have been the beneficiary of one of the easiest schedules in college football. But I still think they are better than the Illini. Illinois wasn’t good enough to beat Purdue at home and they were barely good enough to take down Texas State and Western Kentucky. They have been outgained by an average of 200 yards per game over their last three games and I just don’t think they can hold it together for 60 minutes to come away with a win here. Iowa stinks. But they still have wins at Purdue and at Pittsburgh. I think Iowa rebounds this week.

2-Unit Play. Take #336 Tennessee (-8.5) over Kentucky (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

This game was off my radar earlier in the week. But after some people asked me about it I saw it was really a good spot for the Vols. This is another team that needs a win to try to get themselves back to a bowl game. They have gotten a spark by changing quarterbacks and they have had two weeks to prepare for a really tired Kentucky team. The Wildcats have played eight straight weeks and this is their third road game in a month. They got trounced by Georgia last week and they didn’t even pretend to be able to stop the Bulldogs. Also, Tennessee has absolutely dominated this series, winning 28 of the last 29 meetings. Butch Jones has a solid young team and I think their talent will be out in full force this week. Back the rested, hot team over the tired, cold one.

3-Unit Play. Take #338 Rutgers (-7) over Indiana (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

Indiana’s season has come off the rails. They lost their quarterback. They lost any hope for that elusive bowl bid. And they have gotten wrecked in four straight games. They actually almost pulled off the upset at home against Penn State last week. But now they are in a bad letdown spot after that disappointing loss and they have to go on the road to face a rested and regrouped Rutgers team. The Knights had a much needed by after running through an Ohio State-Nebraska-Wisconsin buzz saw. Their defense was torn up in those games. But I am sure they have fixed some of the issues and I don’t think the Hoosiers will be able to put the same level of pressure on the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is a veteran team and they want a bowl bid. This is the team’s final home game of the season and that is going to make it an emotional situation for them. This team will want to go out with a bang and I see all the emotion flowing the wrong way for Indiana in this one. I’ll be surprised if this isn’t a blowout and I thought this spread should’ve been double-digits.

2-Unit Play. Take #339 Clemson (-2.5) over Georgia Tech (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 15)

I have nothing but respect for Paul Johnson and the job he is doing. That guy needed a season like this to save his job and he could actually win the ACC. Hell, you could make the argument that this team should be undefeated right now. But I love Clemson’s front seven. And they have held their own against this Tech offense the last two years in two blowout wins. Granted, those were at home. But Tech doesn’t have a huge home field advantage in Atlanta. Clemson didn’t play well against Wake Forest but I think they were looking ahead to this game. This team won at B.C. (who has been tough) and should’ve won at Florida State this year. By all accounts quarterback Deshaun Watson is going to be back under center for Clemson and this kid has a little magic to him. If he gives the offense the jolt it needs, and if the defense continue to play as well as it has, then I think Clemson will find a way to gut this one out. Tech is a good team. But they have been beating bad teams and you have to wonder if this team has found its ceiling. If they spring the upset and keep their season alive then great for them. But I’m not betting on it.

1-Unit Play. Take #341 Virginia Tech (+5.5) over Duke (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 15)
Note: This play is from the KING System.

There is no earthly reason why Virginia Tech should be catching less than a touchdown in this game. It doesn’t make any sense. The public is pouring square money down on the Blue Devils (over 80 percent action on Duke) and yet the line is actually coming down. Duke controls its own destiny in the ACC and they have a chance to win back-to-back division crowns. They won in Blacksburg last year and this year’s Duke team is a better version against a worse Tech team. Virginia Tech has lost three straight and four of six games. Their only wins during the last two months are over Western Michigan and Pitt. So, again, how is it that they are not catching around 10 points? This game just looks like a trap for the home team. Duke has won four straight (and covered six of seven) but if you dig a little deeper those wins have come against terrible competition. Virginia Tech is no great shakes. But I’m going to bet with the books on this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #345 South Florida (-11) over SMU (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

Just take a quick look at SMU’s scores at home and you’ll see all you need to know. I don’t know that South Florida deserves to be favored by double-digits over anyone in college football. But that is just a testament to how pathetic the Mustangs are. SMU just can’t wait for this season to be over. The Bulls are not a good team at all. But they are used to playing at this level compared to an SMU team that has been punching out of its weight class the last two seasons. Better athletes. Better organization. More motivation. South Florida has a reason to play this game and SMU doesn’t.

1-Unit Play. Take #349 TCU (-28) over Kansas (3 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)
Note: This play is from the KING System.

Kansas ripped down the goal posts last week because they won a game. Not a big game. Just A game. It is safe to say that these two teams are operating on different wavelengths. TCU has been wrecking opponsnts – good opponents – and the last time they played a team outside of the Top 45 in the country they beat Texas Tech 82-27. The weather is going to prevent them from running it up too much in this game. But I definitely think that TCU is good enough to drop a hammer here. Kansas lost 60-14 to Baylor and were beaten 23-0 at home to a mediocre Texas team. This game is just men against boys and I think TCU lays the lumber.

2-Unit Play. Take #357 New Mexico (+20) over Utah State (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ – 54.0 New Mexico at Utah State (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

I just don’t know that I could lay three touchdowns with a team on its fourth string quarterback, like Utah State is. They have a dominating defense and they are tough at home. But is Utah State going to be able to score enough to win this game in a blowout? The Aggies are coming off back-to-back road games and they have tilts with San Jose State (on a short week) and Boise State coming up in the next 14 days. In between all that they have New Mexico, a team they hammered 45-10 last year, coming to town. How will the Aggies find any motivation for this game? Remember: Utah State only beat Idaho State by 20 points earlier this year, only beat Wake Forest by 12 points, and they lost to Arkansas State outright. New Mexico is a team that has been improving each week. They are going to keep the ball on the ground and keep that clock running. They have hung around with the likes of Boise State, Air Force and San Diego State. I think they can hang around in this game as well.

2-Unit Play. Take #360 Boise State (-13.5) over San Diego State (10 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

Boise State doesn’t get to play the revenge angle very often. But they actually lost to SDSU last season and now it is time to get some payback. The Broncos offense has been going bonkers the last month, scoring 50 or more points in three of their last four games and topping 34 points in seven of their last eight games. San Diego State won’t be able to keep up with that. The Aztecs lost a ton of talent and experience from last year’s team and they have been doing it with smoke and mirrors. Rocky Long relies on his defense to keep him in games. But if that D gets shredded by Boise’s smoking hot offense then the Aztecs don’t have a counterpunch. This is SDSU’s last road game of the season. The last few times they went on the road they lost by double digits at Nevada, at Fresno State and at Oregon State. I know the weather will be an equalizer here and will slow down the scoring. But it isn’t going to help SDSU’s anemic offense and if they get down early they won’t be able to catch back up. I can see this game finishing around 30-10 with Boise getting a much needed win and keeping pace with Colorado State.

5-Unit Play. Take #394 Oregon State (+9.5) over Arizona State (10:45 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

There are a ton of things that are working against Arizona State here. This team has been the biggest overachiever in the country this season and I think that it is going to come to an end this week with a tough loss. Arizona State’s defense only had two starters back from last year and they have been playing way above themselves. But Oregon State has a potent passing attack and they are a dangerous team because they have underachieved this season. Sean Mannion is a veteran quarterback and this is a huge game near the end of his career. I think he is going to give a strong effort. Oregon State has lost four straight games. But those losses have all come against tough competition and two of the games (Utah and Washington State) they probably should’ve won. Mike Riley’s tenure in Corvallis may be coming to an end. But he has been good for some huge home upsets in his time there and this could be another one. The weather is going to be a major factor as the temperature is supposed to be around freezing. I’m not sure how the kids from the desert are going to hold up in that. The public is pouring money into Arizona State and the Sun Devils are probably more focused on their standing in the college playoff system than they are on the opponent in front of them.

2-Unit Play. Take #395 Mississippi State (+9.5) over Alabama (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)
Note: This play is from the KING System.

I know that this line is a huge indicator. I know that any time the No. 1 team in the country is a huge underdog like this you should be pouring money into Alabama. But the bottom line is that I just don’t think that the Crimson Tide are all that good. I think they have been one of the most overrated and overvalued programs in the country the past three seasons. And I think that a senior-laden Mississippi State team has the experience and the moxie to go into Tuscaloosa and play them tough. The Bulldogs may lose this game. But I don’t know that they will get blown out. Alabama should not have beaten West Virginia, they should not have beaten Arkansas, and they should not have beaten LSU last week. And none of those teams is as good as Mississippi State. I think that the Bulldogs have the defense to stop Alabama. And I think that they will turn this game into a grinder. This is too many points to be laying and the number is going up. If you wait it may even be over 10 by kickoff.

2-Unit Play. Take #400 Maryland (+12) over Michigan State (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

I have been riding Maryland all season long and this could be another strong spot for them. This is a boatload of points. And Michigan State has zero motivation for this game. They had their bubble burst last week with that heartbreaking loss to Ohio State. And that game came after an emotional blowout at home against rival Michigan. That is a taxing two weeks. I don’t see how they will be able to scrape themselves up off the mat and blast the Terps in this one. Maryland has gotten rocked by Wisconsin and Ohio State. But other than that they have bene solid and played up to my expectations this year. I don’t know that they will win this game. But, again, this is too many points. The public is backing Sparty with over 80 percent of the bets and this is the same Michigan State team that only beat Purdue by 14 points on the road after that emotional win over Nebraska. How will they play after an emotional loss?

1-Unit Play. Take #322 N.C. State (-16.5) over Wake Forest (3 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

1-Unit Play. Take #334 Wisconsin (-6) over Nebraska (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

2-Unit Play. Take #365 Washington (+9.5) over Arizona (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

1-Unit Play. Take #368 Georgia (-2) over Auburn (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

2-Unit Play. Take #374 Navy (-3) over Georgia Southern (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

2-Unit Play. Take #377 Northwestern (+18) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

2-Unit Play. Take #384 San Jose State (-10) over Hawaii (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

2-Unit Play. Take #388 Texas A&M (-4) over Missouri (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

2-Unit Play. Take #389 Memphis (-10) over Tulane (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

1-Unit Play. Take #397 Texas (-2.5) over Oklahoma State (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN (NCAAF)

4-Unit Play. Take #372 Miami (+2.5) over Florida State (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

This looks like upset city! This is one of the biggest games of the weekend. And these two teams hate one another. Miami would like nothing more than to knock FSU out of the college football playoffs by giving them their first loss of the season. The Seminoles have not won convincingly this year. They have almost lost several times. And now I think they stand a great chance of getting beaten by their hated in-state rival. This spread is small enough that it is getting all the square public money on the Seminoles. But Florida State is just 2-7 ATS this year. They have been one of the worst bets in college football. Miami has gone 2-1 ATS the last three years in this series. But they have lost four straight games to the Noles. They want to snap that streak here. The underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and I like the Hurricanes.

7-Unit Play. Take #360 Boise St. (-13.5) over San Diego St. (10 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

This is my Mountain West Game of the Year. I love the Broncos on this one. This team needs to keep winning if they want a shot at the league title. They have the tiebreaker on Colorado State. Boise State has been great at home this year. They have gone 3-1 ATS on the blue turf and they have blowout wins over BYU, Lafayette and Colorado State here. They are going to blow out SDSU. The Broncos lost 34-31 at SDSU last year. That makes this a rare revenge game for the Broncos. The Aztecs are not the same caliber team this year. Not even close. They are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games. Boise State’s offense is really picking up. They have scored over 50 points in three of their last four games and have averaged over 50 points for their last four games. San Diego State doesn’t have that many weapons on that side of the ball. If this one turns into a shootout they won’t keep up. Boise State is too good at home. And with revenge they will want a blowout. Take the home team in this one.

3-Unit Play. Take #340 Georgia Tech (+3) over Clemson (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 15)

I like Paul Johnson as a home underdog. This Yellowjackets team has been underrated all year long. They have won three straight games and all three have been blowouts by at least three touchdowns. The Jackets have put up great stats and they are just a couple plays away from being undefeated right now! They are 4-1 at home against a Clemson team that is just 2-2 on the road. Clemson has been winning. But they have not been impressive. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games and barely got by Wake Forest last week in a primetime game. The home team has won four straight and 8 of 10 in this series. I think Tech has the better team and catching the points at home in this one is a bonus. Take the points and look for the Jackets to win outright.

4-Unit Play. Take #354 BYU (-26) over UNLV (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

I think that this game will be a blowout for BYU. They have not had many blowouts since early in the season. Their season when down hill when they lost their talented quarterback. But the Cougars have had a week off. They have had two weeks to prepare for UNLV and this is not a good Rebels team at all. The Rebs are coming off a crushing loss to New Mexico and then a blowout loss at home to Air Force. UNLV is 0-5 this year on the road and just 2-8 on the season. They have not played well in Provo and the last time they came here they lost 55-7. I think this will be a similar blowout. BYU hasn’t lost to UNLV in 10 years and they are 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. Those wins were all big blowouts. I think this will be another one. UNLV just can’t wait for the season to end.

4-Unit Play. Take #363 LSU (+2) over Arkansas (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

I think that LSU is going to bounce back after a tough loss to Alabama. They really outplayed the Crimson Tide last week. This is a young Tigers team. But they have grown up through this season and this tough SEC West schedule. Les Miles has done a great job with this defense and they are one of the toughest in the country. All of LSU’s losses have been to Top 10 teams. They are facing an Arkansas team that has not won an SEC game in three years! Arkansas has been close in some games. But they have blown it. They need to prove that they can close out a win before they should be laying points to a team like LSU. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in this series. I think that the Tigers win this one going away and the Razorbacks will have to wait to get that SEC win to snap the streak!

3-Unit Play. Take #336 Tennessee (-8.5) over Kentucky (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 15)

This game sets up very well for the Volunteers. They need to win this game if they want to get to a bowl this year. They have had two weeks to prepare and for this one while Kentucky is coming off a blowout loss last week to Georgia at home. This is a letdown spot for the Wildcats who have not been good on the road. Kentucky is playing for the eighth straight week and this is their third road game in five weeks. The Volunteers have completely dominated this series. They are 28-1 SU in the last 29 meetings! Wow! They are also 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. This one is all Knoxville and the Vols will be singing Rocky Top all night long.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE (NCAAF)

***CFB GAME OF THE YEAR***

8 Unit Play Take #374 Navy -3 over Georgia Southern (3:30pm est):
Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds is an exceptional talent and one of the best players to ever play at Navy. His nagging injuries hindered his performance all year long but a few weeks ago Navy’s head coach Ken Niumatalolo decided to sit his star player for a few games during the middle of the season to let him get healed up. Since his return Reynolds and the Midshipmen offense has excelled averaging 40 points per game. Most of Navy’s opponents will take a week off before playing them in preparation for the unique offense the Midshipmen run because of this it seems these teams come in extra prepared for all of what Navy does. It’s an unfair advantage when considering how many times in a season they will face a team who does this to them. That’s not the case here though as Georgia Southern runs a very similar offense and comes into this game off playing a game last week. In fact it’s Navy who comes into this game off of a bye and having two weeks to prepare. At just 4-5 on the season this becomes a huge game for Navy and their bowl aspirations. Coach Niumtalolo has been saying all week that this is a must win game for Navy. The Midshipmen are a smart football team and all of them know the importance of this game.

Georgia Southern has been a surprise team this season at 7-2 in their first full season of FBS play. The Eagles are undefeated in the Sun Belt Conference so far and have their hopes set on winning it in their first year in the SBC. You really have to wonder how important this game versus Navy is to GSU considering that they have their sights set on the much bigger prize of winning an SBC conference crown. Georgia Southern has played a much easier schedule than the much more tested Navy and winning this game doesn’t carry anywhere near the same kind importance. They played their worst conference game of the season last week winning by 3 points at Texas State in a game they were outgained by 171 yards. It was an odd game as they allowed 26 first downs in the game while only getting 9 on offense.

This will be the last home game of the season and career for a lot the Navy players. They’d love nothing more than to end things on a winning note. This is an extremely odd scheduling spot here in what I like to call a ‘stand alone’ type game as they had last week off with a bye and they will also get next week off as well. CFB teams in this spot will usually bring a lot more focus, energy and desire to win in a ‘stand alone’ game as it’s their only action over a 3 week span. Take the more motivated, prepared and energized Navy team here in this one.

4 Unit Play Take #320 North Carolina -2.5 over Pittsburgh (12:30pm est):
Most forget that this North Carolina team was a top 25 team before this season started. Four of their five losses this year have come on the road where most teams would have trouble winning this year (Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami Florida and East Carolina). This is still a very solid football team who knows that it needs to start winning if their going to make it to a bowl game. Things have really started to click for them in the last four games as they went toe to toe with Notre Dame in a 7 point loss, won 2 straight games (one over a red hot Georgia Tech and the other versus Virginia) before dropping their last contest to a one of the hottest teams in the land the past month, Miami Florida. The Tar Heels did the same type of thing last year by losing games early before winning 6 of their final 7 games including beating Pittsburgh during this stretch and holding the Panthers to just 46 yards on 40 rushes in the game.

Pittsburgh also enters this one at 4-5 overall on the year. The big difference between them and North Carolina though comes in the strength of schedule from these two teams. The Panthers have losses to Georgia Tech, Iowa, Akron, (at) Virginia and Duke. They’ve not only loss to easier teams than UNC this year but they’ve also dropped four of their five games when playing at home. Both of these program are in the 3rd season under their current head coach but the feeling here is that Pittsburgh is one level below where UNC is at currently.

Take North Carolina.

4 Unit Play Take #364 Arkansas -1 over LSU (8:00pm est):
The Arkansas Razorbacks are the best team in CFB with a losing record this year. They come into this game at 4-5 overall but those five defeats have come against some of the top teams in the country. They lost their season opener at Auburn quite handily but their other four losses easily could have games that they won. Instead the Razorbacks lost all four of those games and because of that they continue to hear the same song and dance about how they haven’t won an SEC conference game in their past 17 attempts. This should only add fuel to the fire for Arkansas in this one as they surely don’t want to go into another offseason with this ugly losing streak still hovering over their heads. This game here is probably their best chance at victory of their remaining three games and also is needed if the Razorbacks want to qualify for a bowl game as well. They let LSU drive 99 yards in the last few minutes of last year’s game to win 31-27. It was a crushing loss for Arkansas in the last game of the season and one they had to live with all off-season. They’ve had the past two weeks to prepare for this years game and with it being at home they should be sky high for this game.

The LSU Tigers fought hard last week but they were beaten by Alabama in overtime. What a huge letdown spot this is here a week later on the road. LSU put a lot into that game versus Alabama like they do every season and adding to the frustration of that loss was the fact that it was also their last home game of the year for LSU. The Tigers have been playing better of late but they have one glaring weakness on defense and that’s been stopping the opponents running game. They had a hard time against some of the nation’s most powerful rushing attacks of Wisconsin, Mississippi State and Auburn in their three biggest tests against the run so far this year. All three of those teams ran for nearly 300 yards on average against the Tigers defense this year. The Arkansas ground game compares to those three teams and the Razorbacks gashed them for 5.4 yards per carry last season in their head to head contest. It’s hard enough stopping the Arkansas ground game but having to do it a week after what was an extremely physical battle with Alabama won’t be easy. Facing what appears to be a fresh and rested opponent is just way too much to ask of LSU. This is going to be a brawl and I just don’t think the young Tigers have enough fight in them here to match all of what Arkansas has going in their favor in this one.

Take Arkansas minus the points.

3 Unit Play Take #368 Georgia -2.5 over Auburn (7:15pm est):
These two teams have totally different mindsets coming into this game. Georgia will be looking for revenge from a heartbreaking loss last year to Auburn 43-38. The Bulldogs got back on track last week and in a big way with an easy win over Kentucky. This victory came off an ugly loss the week before to Florida in a game that the Gators rushed for over 400 yards on the ground versus them. Though Georgia has lost only 2 games thus far you get the feeling there’s not many folks who are happy that both of those losses came against struggling Florida and South Carolina. It was a real gut check type game for Florida when they played Georgia as the Gators had just dropped their two previous games with both of them being at home. They brought maximum effort to their next game against the Bulldogs and Georgia just couldn’t match the intensity from Florida. Star running back Todd Gurley will be back for Georgia in this one and not only does he make them a much better team but this will also add to the excitement level in this game. The Bulldogs should be fired up for lots of reasons here in this game but the big one is that they haven’t played at home since all the way back on October 4th. Add that to the fact that this Auburn game looks to be the biggest home game this year on the Georgia schedule and also a chance to quiet down all the skeptics and critics that are now saying that Georgia can’t win a big game in the SEC.

The Auburn Tigers have to be absolutely crushed coming into this game. This is a team that had caught their share of breaks the last two years with lots of late game heroics but that wasn’t the case last weekend as everything imaginable went wrong for them down the stretch against Texas A&M. It was the 2nd loss of the season for Auburn and put an end to any realistic National Championship hopes that they had this year. It’s not easy for a team to come back a week later and with so little to now play for and beat a real good team on the road. In Auburn’s world it’s win it all or their season is a failure these days. Add in the intensity that Georgia will bring due to the revenge factor and that their also finally back playing a game at home and I’m expecting an easy win here for the home team in this one.

Take Georgia here.

3 Unit Play Take #372 Miami Florida +2.5 over Florida State (8:00pm est):
Florida State’s luck runs out here as the Seminoles have managed to dodge their share of bullets so far this year. FSU very easily could have lost to Clemson and then to Notre Dame just a few weeks ago. It took a ferocious comeback for them to win at Louisville and even last week’s home win over Virginia wasn’t anything special either as the Cavaliers stayed within striking distance throughout the game. The Seminoles defense has allowed over 400 yards of offense in five games thus far on the season and their three road contests have seen offenses average 473 yards against them.

Miami is as hot as any team in all of CFB the last month or so and they have done most of their damage without much fanfare either. The emergence of quarterback Brad Kaaya has taken the Hurricanes to whole new levels of late. Miami has had two weeks to prepare for this huge rivalry game against FSU. Last year’s game with FSU ended up being a blowout but Miami was behind by just 7 points at halftime and their also a much better team this year. All three of their losses this season have come on the road which is something they won’t have to deal with here in this one either.

All the distractions this season coming from FSU quarterback Jameis Winston can’t be helping him or his teammates. The Seminoles haven’t been one of the top five teams this year in CFB and this game will finally prove that. Take Miami and the points here.

3 Unit Play Take #338 Rutgers -7 over Indiana (3:30pm est):
A promising 6-1 season came back to reality the past few weeks for Rutgers as they faced some of the best teams in the Big Ten and they dropped all three games. The Scarlet Knights feel they have a lot to still prove in their first year in the Big Ten. They haven’t had it easy as they’ve had to face Penn State, Michigan, Nebraska, OSU and Wisconsin in their five conference contests thus far. Things finally lighten up here as they get to square off against a bottom tier program in the Big Ten. This will also be the last home game for the Rutgers senior class as they will look to secure a winning season with a victory in this game. They also come into this contest off a much needed bye week and had a chance to heal up after playing against three very physical opponents.

Indiana lost their starting quarterback a few games back and the wheels have really fallen off for them. The Hoosiers offense was the one unit for them that played well this season but their defense has been a bottom level defense in CFB for the last few years. Last year they allowed nearly 40 points per game on average and over 500 yards a game on offense. It’s been a little bit better this season on that side of the football but their still ranked in the bottom third of CFB defenses overall. With the loss of their quarterback it looks like the offense has went from being the clear cut strength of this team to being about even or probably even worse than the defense. Starting a pure freshman behind center and one who wasn’t even recruited to play the position is disaster and so far that’s exactly what it’s been. With the Hoosiers true freshman Zander Diamont starting they have thrown for 103 yards in the air in three games. Keep in mind that’s not 103 yards per game either but just 103 yards OVERALL for all three games. It looks to me that the Indiana offense is as inept as their defense these days.

Take Rutgers minus the points here.

3 Unit Play Take #339 Clemson -2.5 over Georgia Tech (12:00pm est):
It looks like Clemson freshman sensation quarterback Deshaun Watson is healthy and will get the start in this one. Watson is a special five star talent and when he’s played this year the Tigers have looked nearly unstoppable. The upgrade from backup quarterback Cole Stoudt to Watson can’t be stressed enough as Stoudt. In the first five games of the season with Watson behind center the Tigers scored 15 touchdowns but since his injury they’ve only managed to score 7 offensive touchdowns in the four games without him. Clemson has one of the top defenses in the country and their coming into this one off a bye then played last weekend at Wake Forest which means they’ve spent the extra time teams need working on stopping the Georgia Tech option. The Tigers defense held FSU, Boston College and Louisville to their lowest point totals of the season and also their least amount of yards gained in a game as well. FSU and BC also had their season low in rushing yards in a game against Clemson this year while Louisville had their 2nd worst game of the season on the ground versus them.

Georgia Tech also has two defeats thus far but they’ve played an easier schedule than Clemson. The Yellow Jackets losses were to Duke at home and at North Carolina while Clemson has been beaten by Georgia and Florida State and with games coming on the road. GT is a very one dimensional team who seems to struggle against the elite teams in CFB. Coming into this year they had lost their last 8 games against ranked teams. Most of this reason comes from the fact they won’t throw the football unless they absolutely have to do so as they’ve not had a game yet this season with more than 26 passing attempts. This is also not a good defensive team and it look to be even worse this year than the team that gave up 55 points to Clemson last year. Oddly enough that performance last season was an improvement against the Tigers as GT allowed over 600 yards in 2012. This is the 7th straight week in a row that the Yellow Jackets have played a game and that can really start to add up here later in the year. Clemson on the other hand had a bye two weeks ago, played Wake Forest last week and then faces weakling Georgia State next weekend.

Play Clemson.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INDIAN COWBOY (NCAAF)

3-Unit Play. #396. Take Alabama -8.5 over Mississippi State (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)

It’s not very often you see the #1 team in the nation giving up a touchdown and a field goal nearly to a team within its own division but such is the case here with Alabama’s reputation hosting Mississippi State on an afternoon contest that has the eyes of the college football nation on this game. Note that Mississippi State is being taken by the public to a tune of 63% and rightfully so as they feel disrespected here but then again you have to understand that Alabama knows that this is it. This is their only chance to make it to the college football playoff because with Auburn’s loss, this team really has no more chances to prove itself worthy with so many other teams in the mix. If Alabama is able to rout this team at home, and theoretically the #1 team in the country it makes for a great statement here. After all, you don’t think Alabama is ticked off that people continue to say they have to beat anyone of high noteworthy? This team did beat West Virginia in a good non-conference win and won in Baton Rouge but the Ole Miss losss no matter how close hangs over this team. This is the only game that Alabama gets a chance to truly prove themselves as with Auburn’s second loss it might not be enough to overcome any gap with the other Big12 teams, FSU and Oregon in the mix. We like Alabama to play a complete game of Football here as note with State barely by multiple teams they likely finally get exposed here by Alabama as Mullen has consistently struggled against scoring against Saban’s defense as the National Championship Offensive Coordinator has had his issues against Saban. Look for Alabama to be as well prepared as you can possibly be for this game and take down the public and likely win this contest by double-digits here.

3-Unit Play. #387. Take Under 57.5 - Missouri vs. Texas A&M (Saturday @ 7:30pm est) (Stations has 59 currently)

After A&M’s dynamic win over Auburn on the Plains it only makes sense they have a bit of a let down against one of the more elite minds in College Football in the Missouri Coaching Staff. Missouri is one of the more elite teams in the nation that continues to get overlooked possibly for their georgraphic reasons or the fact they are not just considered a sexy team. But this team to their credit is 7-2 and the Todd Gurley game really had a unfortunate impact on them because it united Georgia coming into the game and did not do this team a favor. If Gurly ironically plays Missouri might have been more motivated and possibly won that game. But this defense is is vastly underrated giving up 10 to Kentucky, 14 to Vanderbilt, 13 to Florida on the road and cancel out the Georgia game and you have 10 to UCF and 21 to South Carolina. If there is any team that can show a change of pace to Auburn’s defense it is indeed Missouri which is why this line is so low and Missouri loves to clock manage to begin with and A&M is likely in for a let down here and has an extremely vulnerable defense. Eventually they will have to run the ball themselves and play keep away from a Missouri team who will try to take over the clock and what you have here is a game that likely falls below the posted total as Missouri likely scores early and tries to ball control the rest of the way. The Under is 5-0 for the Tigers following a straight up win and the Under is 4-1 for the Aggies after scoring 40 or more points in their previous game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS (NCAAF)

4 Unit Play. #334 Take Wisconsin Badgers -6.5 over Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) The winner of this game has the inside track to the west championship and a berth in the Big 10 Title Game against Ohio State. We will side with the team that has the much better defense in Wisconsin. The Badgers were a mess on offense earlier this season despite having two of the better running backs in the conference. Things are progressing in the passing game with Joel Stave, and if this team can pass a little that just opens up things even more for Melvin Gordon. As for Nebraska, much like Wisconsin they have a big-time running back in Ameer Abdullah, but he is a little banged up at the moment with a knee injury and will not be 100% for this game. Nebraska also have a major hurdle to overcome when playing Wisconsin as two of the last three meetings have been blowouts for Wisconsin, losing by 39 and 31 points. Coach Bo Pelini was all but fired at the end of November last year, and he is just not a big-time coach. Wisconsin wins this game and takes control of the Big 10 West. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 home games.

4 Unit Play. #344 Take Air Force Falcons -2 over Nevada Wolf Pack (Saturday 2 pm themwc) By now you know that we have a great feel with this Nevada team and have not lost a selection this year in any of their games. Air Force is for real, and yet they continue to be undervalued with the oddsmakers each and every week. People are remembering the Falcons 2-10 performance last season and forgetting the quarterback injuries that plagued the 2013 squad. They do not have any of those issues this year and are facing a team that could not stop their third-string quarterback last season. In 2012 when these teams met Nevada gave up 461 yards rushing. In 2013 when these two teams met Nevada gave up 375 yards rushing to a team playing a third-string quarterback. Nevada does not pass the ball well enough to take advantage of a suspect Falcon secondary; they are a running team like Air Force. There is a reason the line has swung 4 points toward Air Force in this game.

4 Unit Play. #360 Take Boise State Broncos -14 over San Diego State Aztecs (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN U) This is another game that Boise State is the much better team playing at home and also has revenge from last year. Despite two early losses, Boise State is in great shape to run the table to finish 10-2 and host the MWC Championship Game next month. The Broncos have won 17 of their last 18 home games, and the Aztecs have a very weak quarterback. If Boise State can shut down the running game of SDSU, the Broncos will win this game by 20+ points. When the Aztecs lose on the road it usually comes by a big margin, and this will be the best team they have faced all season long.

4 Unit Play. #363 Take LSU Tigers +2.5 over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 8 pm ESPN 2) The Razorbacks are a much-improved team in Year 2 of the Bret Bielema regime, but they still have a major hurdle that they have yet to clear. Arkansas has yet to win a SEC game since 2012. It now seems to be a mental block, and if the game is close into the fourth quarter this team just finds ways to lose. LSU is coming off a brutal game with Alabama last week, and many feel this is a prime spot for a letdown. I am not one of those people and feel they have the defense to shut down the Arkansas run. LSU has won the last three games in this series. Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.

6 Unit Play. #371 Take Florida State Seminoles -2 over Miami Hurricanes (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Everyone keeps saying Florida State will run the table, but yet the pointspreads in their games say otherwise. Miami was ranked No. 7 in the country when these two teams met last season and got pounded by 27 points in a game that was not close. Florida State has won their last 4 games in Miami, and I just do not believe this young Miami quarterback can exploit this FSU defense. Since Miami moved out of the Orange Bowl to play at Sun Life Stadium, their home crowd edge has been nonexistent. Florida State still has the best player on the field in Jameis Winston, and he has not lost a game when he is the starting quarterback. Miami is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Expect FSU to have a strong following in South Florida as the Noles punch their ticket to the ACC Championship Game.

4 Unit Play. #392 Take ULM Warhawks +6.5 over Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (Saturday 7 pm ESPN 3) This battle of Louisiana features the top team in the Sun Belt in Louisiana. This rivalry has featured numerous upsets by the underdog, including last season when the Warhawks went into Lafayette and won by three points (+14 underdog). In fact, the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 4, 1, 1, 16, and 3. Getting around a touchdown with the home team is too good to pass up in this game. Louisiana is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record.

4 Unit Play. #400 Take Maryland Terrapins +12.5 over Michigan State Spartans (Saturday 8 pm BTN) The Spartans saw their hopes for a berth in the college football playoff come to an end last week with a home loss to Ohio State. They now must travel to unfamiliar territory to play a decent Maryland team that is already bowl eligible on the season. Truth is that Michigan State is not anywhere near as great on defense as they were last season. Michigan State gave up 568 yards last week to Ohio State. Maryland plays aggressive on both sides of the football, but this game is more about fading Michigan State. I truly believe Maryland has a chance to win this game straight-up, and getting double digits is just icing on the cake.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS

3 Unit Play. #360 Boise St -13 over San Diego St (10:15p.m., Saturday, Nov 15 ESPNU)
The weather should be Boise type weather and I see the Broncos winning another easy home game Saturday night. San Diego St has dropped 4 out of 5 road games and 3 of those games were by double-digits. Boise St has won four straight games and the Broncos have won 4 straight home games and all those wins were by double-digits. The Broncos offense is finally clicking and again since this game is in Boise, Idaho the Broncos win this game with ease and I see them winning by 20 points or more. San Diego St is 1-5-1 ATS in their 7 games.

3 Unit Play. #368 Georgia -2 over Auburn (7:15p.m., Saturday, Nov 15 ESPN)
Georgia will be looking for some payback after last year because Auburn beat them 43-38. Auburn is coming off a horrible loss at home last week 41-38 to Texas A&M and Georgia is coming off a blowout win over Kentucky 63-31. The Georgia Bulldogs also get back Todd Gurley in this game and talk about fresh legs in the backfield. It’s no secret the Bulldogs have one of the best backfields in the country but Saturday night I see Georgia running wild all over the Auburn defense. Home team in this series is 6-1 ATS and the favorite in this series is a perfect 5-0 ATS so why not pick the Georgia Bulldogs at home.

7 Unit Play. #402 UTEP -6 over North Texas (10:00p.m., Saturday, Nov 15 FS-1)
(Conference USA Game of the Year) Here are two conference teams that in my eyes going in the opposite directions. Yes I know the Mean Green are going for back-to-back wins but North Texas hasn’t won a road game all season long. North Texas has lost 4straight road games this season and all 4 road losses were by double-digits. UTEP has won 3 out of 4 games and if the Miners can win this home game they will go bowling this season. UTEP has also won 3-straight home games and the Miners offense should have no trouble scoring on the Mean Green defense. You figure the UTEP Miners will also be looking for a home win over North Texas because the Miners have 2 tough games remaining and again if UTEP want to go bowling they must win this home game. North Texas is 10-22 ATS following a SU win and the Mean Green are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. UTEP is 5-0 ATS in their 5 home games and the Miners are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAINMAN

10 Georgia
5 Idaho
5 Rutgers
3 Mich St
3 FSU
1 San Diego St

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS LOCK

8-Texas-2.5 over Oklahoma State
7- Utah+9 over Stanford
7- Rutgers-7 over Indiana
6- Georgia Southern +3 over Navy
6- Clemson -2.5 over Georgia Tech

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

50 tcu
15 byu
10 kKentucky
10 western michigan