11-17-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookieshunter

2* - Steelers -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEN BURNS

pitt/tenn under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

Tenn +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Lawrence late phone selection

Lean - Steelers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges

Steelers -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MNF REPORT
MONDAY NOVEMBER, 17th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #11 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
__________________________________________________ ____________

#475 PITTSBURGH @ #476 TENNESSEE
TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Steelers -6, Total: 47

Ben Roethlisberger had thrown an NFL-record dozen touchdown passes in two games heading into last weekend's apparent mismatch against the New York Jets. Roethlisberger managed just one, however, against New York's injury-riddled secondary and the Steelers were stunned by New York, which had lost eight straight contests. Pittsburgh looks to get the aerial attack back in form when it visits LP Field in Nashville to take on the struggling Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football. "It's the NFL, if you don't show up ready to play your type of game, you're going to lose," wide receiver Lance Moore said. "Our last game was a perfect example of that. We're hot. We came in high and mighty and a team came in and played better than us."

Pittsburgh's dud against New York snapped its three-game winning streak and dropped the Steelers into a tie for third place in the crowded AFC North Division. The Titans, looking to the future, are riding a three-game losing streak but they have won the past two and eight of the last 10 meetings in the series. Tennessee looked great in the first quarter last Sunday at Baltimore before reverting back to the form that's seen it score the league's fewest points. The Titans had 142 yards and a 7-0 lead after 15 minutes but were held to 68 yards on 30 plays the rest of the way in a 21-7 loss.

•ABOUT THE STEELERS (6-4 SU, 5-5-0 ATS): Led by Roethlisberger's surge, Pittsburgh ranks first in the NFL in total offense. Antonio Brown leads the league in receptions and receiving yardage, but the Steelers have become one-dimensional as of late. The Steelers have run for just 91 yards on 42 carries in their past two games, and haven't scored on the ground since Week #3. Running back Le'Veon Bell has just 56 yards on 21 carries in his last two games, but he figures to have more success against a defense that was torched for 112 yards on the ground by Justin Forsett in a loss to the Ravens last Sunday. Tennessee has allowed an AFC-worst 4.53 yards per carry since October, including 363 yards and four touchdowns in its last two losses.

•ABOUT THE TITANS (2-7 SU, 2-6-1 ATS): Rookie QB Zach Mettenberger will make his third NFL start with three touchdowns and two interceptions in his prior two. Mettenberger is completing 63.2 percent of his passes but he will be without one of his top targets in tight end Delanie Walker, who suffered a concussion last Sunday. Running back Dexter McClusker is also questionable with a knee injury, further hindering an offense that ranks 31st in the league. The Titians opened the season with a win at Kansas City but has just one other victory - a 16-14 home win over the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars on October 12th.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Steelers were held to 31 yards on 15 carries as Bell missed a 16-9 Week #1 loss to the Titans last season.... Pittsburgh has eight sacks in two games this month but have allowed four of the five QBs they've faced on the road to post a passer rating of at least 109.3, though the outlier also happened to be a rookie from the AFC South. Pittsburgh pressured Blake Bortles into a pair of interceptions in a Week #5 win at Jacksonville, improving to 18-2 against rookie signal-callers since Dick LeBeau returned as defensive coordinator in 2004.... Since the start of last season, the Steelers have been outscored 88-26 in the first quarter away from Heinz Field, allowing an NFL-high 36 points on its opponents' first offensive possession.

•RESEARCH NOTES: According to our database here at StatSystemsSports.net NFL teams who lost straight-up as road favorites after having been camped at home the prior three games have responded rather well, going 20-11 straight-up and versus the spread since 1985, including 16-6 SU and ATS when coming off a non-division defeat. In addition it informs us that Pittsburgh is 16-3 ATS away with revenge following an away game, including a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS mark when off a SU loss. They are also 8-0 ATS in games after scoring less than 14 points when facing an opponent off a SU double-digit loss. The troubled Titans bring a 4-0 SU and ATS mark in their last four Monday Night appearances into the fray, but they’re also 0-5 ATS on Monday Night Football following a loss when facing a winning opponent.

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•KEY STATS
--PITTSBURGH is 39-20 OVER (+17.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.1, OPPONENT 10.5.

--TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE 18.4, OPPONENT 31.7.

--TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE 17.1, OPPONENT 34.8.

--TENNESSEE is 15-3 OVER (+11.7 Units) in home games versus poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was TENNESSEE 26.3, OPPONENT 21.3.

--TENNESSEE is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) versus dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992.
The average score was TENNESSEE 22.0, OPPONENT 31.2.

--TENNESSEE is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE 28.8, OPPONENT 32.8.

--TENNESSEE is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE 24.3, OPPONENT 32.3.

--TENNESSEE is 26-7 against the 1rst half line (+18.3 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was TENNESSEE 13.8, OPPONENT 8.8.

--TENNESSEE is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE 9.1, OPPONENT 9.7.

--TENNESSEE is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) the 1rst half total after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE 9.1, OPPONENT 10.4.

•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE TOMLIN is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 21.8, OPPONENT 16.3.

--MIKE TOMLIN is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.9, OPPONENT 24.0.

--KEN WHISENHUNT is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was WHISENHUNT 19.3, OPPONENT 25.6.

--KEN WHISENHUNT is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games versus good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was WHISENHUNT 29.8, OPPONENT 22.5.

--KEN WHISENHUNT is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was WHISENHUNT 29.0, OPPONENT 23.3.

--KEN WHISENHUNT is 21-6 OVER (+14.4 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was WHISENHUNT 26.0, OPPONENT 25.5.

--KEN WHISENHUNT is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was WHISENHUNT 13.6, OPPONENT 16.6.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PITTSBURGH is 15-14 against the spread versus TENNESSEE since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 16-14 straight up against PITTSBURGH since 1992.
--18 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--TENNESSEE is 17-13 versus the first half line when playing against PITTSBURGH since 1992.
--17 of 28 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Tennessee.
--Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Tennessee.

•RECENT TRENDS
--PIT is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
--PIT is 2-6-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week #11.
--Under is 5-2 in PIT last 7 Monday games.

--TEN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
--TEN is 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 versus the AFC.
--Over is 8-3 in TEN last 11 home games.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 44 times, while the favorite covered the spread 33 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 52 times, while the underdog won straight up 29 times. 28 games went over the total, while 20 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 65 times, while the underdog covered first half line 59 times. *No EDGE. 50 games went over first half total, while 43 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG), in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP), after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games.
(42-13 since 1983.) (76.4%, +27.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 45.7
The average score in these games was: Team 27.6, Opponent 25.8 (Total points scored = 53.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 25 (46.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (22-7).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy


6-Unit Play #476 Take Over 47 Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee (Monday @ 8:30pm)

Youwould think that this would be a hard hitting and defensive struggle as it waswhen these two teams met last year but much has changed. Note, that the lineopened up at -4 and quickly shot up to -6 as the public is heavily on theSteelers who come off an egg at the Jets. Of course we will root for theSteelers because they are our 8-unit future for the and at 6-4, the win at theJets could have been huge for us as they could have gone to 7-3 but all we needis 9-7 and that 8-unit future will come through for our 2nd straight NFL Futureprediction winner as we had the Chargers Over 8.5 wins in 2012. Per this game,the Steelers looked horrendous against the Jets as the sharps were all over theJets at home and Pittsburgh put up just 13 points after scoring 43 onBaltimore, 51 against Indianapolis and 30 against a good Texans defensivefront. But the one thing the Jets do right is their defensive line can getafter the quarterback and that was bound to be a difficult game for theSteelers as the Jets lines are as good as anybody in the league. Per this game,with the Steelers coming off a loss, needing a big offensive bounce-back andfacing a Titan team that has only been able to put up 23 points in their lasttwo games facing the Texans and Ravens defense who was on a bounce-back againstthe Steelers +50 point performance, look for Tennessee to come out firing aswell and being able to being a decent underdog and score some points. TheSteelers defense is not the same defense as they have given up 121 points intheir last 5 games (about 24.2 points per game). With the Titans needing anoffensive bounce-back and the Steelers needing the same, the public heavily onPittsburgh, don't be surprised to see Tennessee take an early lead andPittsburgh to play catch up as this contest likely spills over the postedtotal. The Over is 5-1 for the Steelers following a straight up loss and theOver is 8-1 for the Titans after scoring less than 15 points in their previousgame as well.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ivey Walters

CBB Double Dime 2% Louisiana Tech -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

Pittsburgh at Tennessee

The Steelers head to Tennessee tonight to face a Titans team that is 7-18-2 ATS in its last 27 home games. Pittsburgh is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17 Time Posted: 1:00 p.m. EST (11/12)

Game 475-476: Pittsburgh at Tennessee (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 132.419; Tennessee 124.067 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 47 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Dallas at Charlotte

The Mavericks head to Charlotte tonight to face a Hornets team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games versus Southwest Division opponents. Dallas is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mavericks favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Denver at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 116.327; Cleveland 125.600 Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 9 1/2; 220 Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 12 1/2; 216 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (+12 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: Dallas at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 124.810; Charlotte 118.718 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 6; 204 Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 3 1/2; 199 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Orlando at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 113.542; Detroit 119.921 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 6 1/2; 187 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 4 1/2; 191 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4 1/2); Under

Game 507-508: Miami at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line & Total: Vegas Line & Total: Dunkel Pick:

Game 509-510: Phoenix at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 118.577; Boston 119.789 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 218 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 214 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+1 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: Houston at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 120.487; Memphis 125.978 Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 5 1/2; 181 Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 3; 186 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3); Under

Game 513-514: Philadelphia at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 113.195; San Antonio 127.399 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 14; 188 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 16; 194 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+16); Under

Game 515-516: New Orleans at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line & Total: Vegas Line & Total: Dunkel Pick:

Game 517-518: Chicago at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line & Total: Vegas Line & Total: Dunkel Pick:

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

The Rangers host a Lightning team that is 7-15 in its last 22 Monday games. New York is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-105). Here are all of today's NHL picks.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.228; NY Rangers 12.876 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-105); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | MIAMI at BROOKLYN
Play Against - Home favorites (BROOKLYN) after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half
50-21 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.4% | 26.9 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

NBA | DENVER at CLEVELAND
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (DENVER) after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games
49-27 since 1997. ( 64.5% | 28.6 units )

NBA | HOUSTON at MEMPHIS
Play On - Road teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (HOUSTON) after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB | TEXAS SOUTHERN at INDIANA
Play On - Home teams as a favorite or pick (INDIANA) off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record
70-33 since 1997. ( 68.0% | 33.7 units )

CBB | OAKLAND at E MICHIGAN
Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (OAKLAND) off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, with just two starters returning from last season
496-133 since 1997. ( 78.9% | 155.4 units )

CBB | DETROIT at OREGON
Play Against - A favorite vs. the 1rst half line (OREGON) after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season
47-19 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.2% | 26.1 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Steelers (6-4) @ Titans (2-7)-- Pitt laid egg in Swamp last week after Big Ben tossed 12 TD passes in last two home games; Steelers are 2-3 on road, beating Panthers/Jaguars- all three of their losses are on carpet- they're 6-1 on grass, but lost four of last five trips here, losing 26-23/16-9 to Tennessee last two years. Titans scored 17 or less points in last four games, losing last three by 2-14-14 points; they averaged 6.7/4.5 ypa in first two Mettenberger starts, but defense also had no takeaways in those games. Since '06, Steelers are 14-25-1 as road favorites, 1-1 this year. Coming into this week, over is 23-8 in NFL primetime games. Steelers have their bye week after this game; Titans had bye two weeks ago, one of few edges they have in this game.