11-19-14

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GOODFELLA

Wednesday Free NBA (2*)

#516 TORONTO RAPTORS -2.5

The Raptors won both meetings between these clubs last season (including a 99-86 home win). The Grizzlies just concluded a 4 game home-stand (4-0 SU & 1-3 ATS) & are coming off a “big game win” over conference rival Houston (blow-out win 119-93) on Monday. IMO, very possible for a bit of a “let down” here for the Grizzlies. Memphis with a quick 1 game roadie here, as they return home to host the Celtics on Friday night. The Raptors are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the entire NBA early on (quietly sitting atop the Eastern Conference at 8-2). Toronto is in the midst of a very lengthy home-stand. Tonight is their 6th game of a 14 day, 7 game home-stand. Their only home loss this season was a week ago vs the Bulls. The Raps are coming off an easy blow-out win over the Jazz on Saturday 111-93 ( granted a very tough spot for the Jazz, as it was their 5th road game in 7 days). Toronto has had the L/3 days off (some will say/think “rust” for the Raps)….perhaps early on, but there is simply no chance that these Raps “won’t be up/prepared for this game”, IMO. In fact, Toronto is (5-1-1 ATS L/7) games playing on 3 days of rest or more. The Raptors are also (9-3 ATS L/12) games following a win by double digits. The public is all over the “10-1″ Grizzlies and the +2.5 here. For me, I am going the other way in what I see as “great value” on this Raptors team at HOME. I have Toronto winning this game by 6 points tonight.

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Worlds Worse Picker

NBA
Thunder
Spurs
Memphis
Bucks

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Doc NBA:

17-22
-25.0 units
-720 flat betting

2-Unit Play #501 Take Dallas -2 over Washington (7 p.m. EST, Wednesday)
These teams are among the best in the league record-wise. However, we think that Dallas is the more complete - and better overall - team, and we think if both teams play to their capabilities then the Mavs should end up with a comfortable win here. They are playing as well as any team in the league right now and have won and covered four straight and five of six. The Wizards are 7-2, but they have had a really easy schedule up to this point. Look at the teams they have beat to earn this record: Orlando twice, Indiana twice, Detroit, the Knicks and Milwaukee. Not exactly a murderers' row. And they are only 4-5 ATS, which shows that they are overrated by the oddsmakers. The Western Conference is of course much tougher than the East, and we just think this line is short and very beatable for the road team. Dallas has won and covered three straight meetings in this series, and this is the best team that they have had in any of those meetings Their offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and we don't see the Wizards slowing them down, and we also don't think Washington can keep pace in this one for four full quarters.
3-Unit Play #516 Take Toronto -2.5 over Memphis (7:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday)
NOTE: A bunch of players for Memphis were ruled out with illnesses and this line moved soon after release. We still like the play at the new line. This one will be graded, win or lose, at the released line, as always.
This is a great matchup tonight, and both of these teams have started off the season red hot. We like the Raptors for several reasons. For one, the Grizzlies are the more public and well-known team, and they will get the benefit of the doubt from the oddsmakers and public bettors in this type of matchup. No matter how well the Raptors play, no one pays attention to them because of their lack of big-name players and their location. But when you look at their records ATS, Toronto is 7-3 ATS with a SU record of 8-2, while Memphis is 10-1 SU and only 5-6 ATS. We just think this is another line shaded in the Grizzlies direction. Toronto won and covered both meetings last season (they are on a 5-2 ATS run in this series), and these are very similar teams to last year. Toronto has also had three nights rest coming into this one and should be more prepared to succeed here as a result. That much time off is huge at this point of the season when not every player on the court has mid-season conditioning.
3-Unit Play #519 Take Oklahoma City/Denver UNDER 198 (9 p.m. EST, Wednesday)
Going to roll with the under again here with OKC as they are one of the best under teams in the league after cashing another under last night in Utah. This team is one of the worst offensive clubs in the NBA, just a hair above Philly for the distinction of the worst. The under is now 9-3 for their games this season, and this is another total that has been posted too high. Denver is one of the toughest places to play a back-to-back, and we just don't see how the Thunder will be able to generate any scoring here in this environment regardless of how bad the Denver defense is. And OKC has had to rely on its defense to stay in games (they are top 5 defensively this season), so we think there is a good chance they can hold Denver to a respectable point total. The over has cashed only once in the last seven meetings between these teams, and the under has cashed in four straight meetings.

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Jason Sharpe NBA:

12-6

+18.1 units
+540 flat betting

3 Unit Play Take #501 Dallas -2 over Washington (7:05pm est):

Once again were seeing the Western Conference dominate the Eastern Conference this year in the NBA. We seen this same type thing early on last season as well as the betting markets continue to give way too much credit to teams like the Washington Wizards who beat up on lower level teams. Go down the Washington schedule and you see they haven't played one game this year versus a Western Conference team. In their two biggest games to date they were soundly beaten in both at Miami and at Toronto, failing to cover the spread in either contest. They have also covered just once in their last four victories as they were favored (-9) over Orlando at home and won by 5 points, favored (-6) over Detroit at home and won by 4 points and favored (-9.5) over Indiana and won by just 2 points at home in overtime. There's a lot of excitement right now in Washington about the Wizards fast start to the year and a lot of folks have been waiting for their big game coming up next on Friday at home against King James and Cleveland. It might be a good idea here if the Wizards pay attention to a very good Dallas squad tonight first.

If you want to talk about being impressive, the Dallas Mavericks 8-3 start to this season has been great. The Mavericks not only sport one of the top records to start the year but they also have the largest point differential in the NBA as well. They have led by 25 or more points in over half of their games thus far this season. Dallas has covered four straight contests coming into this one and by an average margin of victory ocoming by almost 26 points in those games. These two teams don't play many times in a year but the Mavericks have owned the Wizards as they come in having beaten them eight straight times with their last loss to Washington coming way back in 2009.

Take Dallas here. Big 8 unit CFB Game of the year goes for me this Saturday. This is as good as it gets when it comes to me liking a play. I am a perfect 5-0 this season so far in plays rated this high in football. I've also won my clients a record breaking amount of profits personally so far this football season and will be hoping to add to those numbers again this weekend. $99 gets you all of my football plays for this coming week. Keep in mind I have made money in 8 of the past 9 football weeks overall.

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Scott Spreitzer
CBB Tapout. TripleDimeBet
1st of year... Gonzaga -19.5

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Indian Cowboy NHL

2* Philadelphia/ NY Rangers OVER 5.5 goals

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ATS LOCK CLUB

2* Buffalo-7 over Kent State

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RAS

1.5 Units
[540] San Jose State +4

1 Unit
[537] Cal Irvine/Arizona over 128½
[531] Wisconsin Green Bay/Wisconsin over 135

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INDIAN COWBOY (CBB)

2* Gonzaga -21

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JASON SHARPE (CBB)

3-Unit play. Take Evansville-5

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Bill Marzano

UC Irvine

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Winning Angle

NBA BASKETBALL

Play Houston -13 over Los Angeles Lakers (NBA TOP PLAY)

Los Angeles has lost 11 of the last 14 games against the spread when playing as a road underdog of 12.5 points or more and they have lost 75 of the last 133 games against the spread when the total posted is greater than 200 points.Los Angeles has lost 24 of the last 41 games against the spread when playing their 2nd game in five days and they are allowing an average of 115 points in road games this season.

Play Brooklyn -6 over Milwaukee (NBA BONUS PLAY)

Play Boston -6 over Philadelphia (NBA BONUS PLAY)



NCAA BASKETBALL

Play Arkansas -10 over Wake Forest (NCAA TOP PLAY)

Wake Forest has lost 19 of the last 22 road games and they have lost 13 of the last 14 games when playing as an underdog of ten points or more.Arkansas has won 36 of the last 39 home games and they have won 13 consecutive games when playing as a favorite of ten points or more.

Play Wisconsin -15 over WI-Green Bay (NCAA BONUS PLAY)

Play Gonzaga -19 over St. Josephs (NCAA BONUS PLAY)



NHL HOCKEY

Play Philadelphia +140 over NY Rangers (NHL TOP PLAY)

Play Edmonton +120 over Vancouver (NHL TOP PLAY)



BeatYourBookie

FOOTBALL

10* Play Kent State +7 over Buffalo (Top NCAA Play)

Kent State is 17-4 ATS after covering the spread in three of the last four games
Kent State is 7-3 ATS when playing in the month of November

10* Play Bowling Green +7.5 over Toledo (Top NCAA Play)

Bowling Green is 11-6 ATS in road games the last three seasons
Bowling Green is 7-2 ATS when playing in the month of November



Winning Angle Football

FOOTBALL

Play Bowling Green +7.5 over Toledo (NCAA)
8:00 PM EST

Bowling Green has covered the spread in11 of the last 17 road games and they have covered the spread in 7 of the last 9 games when playing in the month of November.Bowling Green has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games and they are averaging 32 points a game on offense this season.

Play Kent State +7 over Buffalo (NCAA)
8:00 PM EST

Kent State has covered the spread in three of the last four games and they have covered the spread in 9 of the last 12 games coming off two straight conference games.Kent State has covered the spread in 17 of the last 21 games after covering the spread in three of the last four games and they have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games when playing in the month of November.



FantasySportsGametime

FOOTBALL

5000* Play Kent State +7 over Buffalo (TOP NCAA PLAY)

Buffalo has lost 11 of the last 15 games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their last game and they have lost 5 consecutive games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in their last game.Buffalo has lost 16 of the last 22 games coming off a win as an underdog and they are allowing an average of 32 points a game on defense this season.

5000* Play Bowling Green +7 over Toledo (TOP NCAA PLAY)

Bowling Green has won 19 of the last 23 games vs. conference opponents and they have won 14 of the last 17 games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in their last game.Bowling Green has won 10 consecutive games coming off a game where they forced three or more turnovers and they have won 7 of the last 8 games when playing in weeks ten through thirteen.



XpertPicks

TOP FOOTBALL PLAY

Play Kent State +7 over Buffalo—-RISK 25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
8:00 PM EST

Buffalo has lost 12 of the last 15 games against the spread after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their last game and they have lost 4 consecutive games against the spread after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in their last game. Buffalo has lost 9 of the last 13 games against the spread when playing as a home favorite of 7 points or less and they have lost 7 of the last 11 games against the spread coming off three or more conference games.

BONUS FOOTBALL PLAYS

Play Bowling Green +7.5 over Toledo—-RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL

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ALLEN EASTMAN (CBB)

3-Unit Play. Take #529 Oklahoma (-4.5) over Creighton (8 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 19)

A lot of sharp money has pushed this spread up and it is even hitting 5.0 at some books. There is a good reason for that. This one should be a blowout. Oklahoma is a much stronger team out of the Big 12. The Bluejays have the home court advantage in this one. But that is the only advantage they have. This team lost as much talent as any team in the country from last year. That includes the coach’s son and the reigning national POTY Doug McDermott. It is going to take some time for this team to get used to playing without McDermott to lean on. Oklahoma looked great in its opener and was up 42-19 at halftime. Creighton failed to cover against Chicago State and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. I like the roadie in this one.

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ROBERT FERRINGO (CBB)

5-Unit Play. Take #524 Bowling Green (-6.5) over Wright State (4 p.m.)
These are two teams going in completely opposite directions. Bowling Green has five seniors and three juniors leading the way and they have a little pep in their step. They welcomed in a new coach, formerly of Wichita State, and have some key JUCO transfers that are ready to bolster the talent they already brought back. This is the Falcons’ first home game and I think that they are ready to light up Wright State. This is a revenge game for the Falcons for a 46-43 loss on the road last year. But do you know how many points Wright State brought back from that game? Four. They graduated four senior starters and lost another key player in the offseason. Wright State welcomed back some rotational guys (and they generally play 9 or 10 guys) but two of them – would-be starters – are going to miss this game due to a concussion and a suspension. Bowling Green is a much stronger team in all facets of the game and I expect an easy double-digit victory with this one.

5-Unit Play. Take #525 Evansville (-4) over Miami, OH (7 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. Take #527 Western Michigan (+1) over Oakland (7 p.m.)

2-Unit Play. Take #529 Oklahoma (-4.5) over Creighton (8 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. Take #532 Wisconsin (-15) over UW-Green Bay (9 p.m.)

2-Unit Play. Take #534 Arkansas (-12.5) over Wake Forest (9 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. Take #547 Morehead State (+11) over Cincinnati (7 p.m.)

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GoodFella - NBA Double Dime Raptors -2.5

The Raptors won both meetings between these clubs last season (including a 99-86 home win). The Grizzlies just concluded a 4 game home-stand (4-0 SU & 1-3 ATS) & are coming off a "big game win" over conference rival Houston (blow-out win 119-93) on Monday. IMO, very possible for a bit of a "let down" here for the Grizzlies. Memphis with a quick 1 game roadie here, as they return home to host the Celtics on Friday night. The Raptors are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the entire NBA early on (quietly sitting atop the Eastern Conference at 8-2). Toronto is in the midst of a very lengthy home-stand. Tonight is their 6th game of a 14 day, 7 game home-stand. Their only home loss this season was a week ago vs the Bulls. The Raps are coming off an easy blow-out win over the Jazz on Saturday 111-93 ( granted a very tough spot for the Jazz, as it was their 5th road game in 7 days). Toronto has had the L/3 days off (some will say/think "rust" for the Raps)....perhaps early on, but there is simply no chance that these Raps "won't be up/prepared for this game", IMO. In fact, Toronto is (5-1-1 ATS L/7) games playing on 3 days of rest or more. The Raptors are also (9-3 ATS L/12) games following a win by double digits. The public is all over the "10-1" Grizzlies and the +2.5 here. For me, I am going the other way in what I see as "great value" on this Raptors team at HOME. I have Toronto winning this game by 6 points tonight.