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*ST BONAVENTURE (-4.5) over Siena
04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 550
St. Bonaventure has a well balanced team that had 5 men in double-figure scoring in their impressive 77-57 win as a 6 point favorite over a pretty good Dartmouth team. The Bonnies were missing their most important player in that game, as shot blocking big man Youssou Ndoye was serving a 1 game suspension. Ndoye returns and his 10 points, 6 rebounds and mostly importantly his 2.2 blocks per game (last year's stats) will make the Bonnies even better. Siena returns all 5 starters from last year's team but they don't appear to be improved based on their first two games, both 8 point losses to U Mass and Vermont and my rating favor the Bonnies by 6 points if Siena is no better than they were last year (and by 4 points if they have their expected improvement). The reason for the play is a 179-89-8 ATS situation that applies to the Bonnies tonight and I'll take St. Bonaventure in a 1-Star Best Bet at -5 or less and for 2-Stars at -4.
**ARIZONA (-15) over UC Irvine
06:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 538
UC Irvine is a solid team and Arizona is 0-2 ATS in their first two wins. However, the Wildcats’ first half ratings in those first two games were as good as expected and they’re less likely to letdown in the second half against a more competitive team. The line on this game opened at 20 and crashed down to 15. I actually get Arizona by 17 points and 15 ½ if the standard letdown factor is applied but I don’t see a letdown given that the Wildcats apply to a 104-48-8 ATS non-conference home favorite situation tonight. I’ll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at -16 points or less.
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