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King Creole | CFB Side PARLAY !!!
Double-Dime Bet
New Mexico & California
Kudos to Colorado State on a great season. Their 9-1 SU record is tops in the Mountain West Conference. But they’ve never been a reliable BIG favorite. And they’ll be asked to do just that (win by more than 3 TD’s) on Saturday as they take on the #5 rushing team in the country. That would be the NEW MEXICO LOBOS. Sharp underdog players are always on the lookout for ‘value’ rushing underdogs, and we have a tailor-made one in the Lobos. They’ll be taking on the #87 defense in the country, and have put up 318 rushing yards per game so far in the 2014 season. Not only that, but the Lobos are already PERFECT 4-0 ATS on the Mountain West Road this season (covers by +28 pts, +4.5 pts, +6 pts, and +13 points). They also come into this game on quite the current ATS run. New Mexico has honed a PERFECT 4-0 ATS in their last four games. They have lost by MORE than 21 points only ONCE this season, ad that was way back on Sept. 6th in a non-conference game versus Arizona State. The Lobos have been competitive in EVERY game since. And we’re getting MORE than 21 points. Top it off; this is a series that has been dominated by the doggie. The UNDERDOG in this Rams / Lobos series has gone 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
As mentioned above, Colorado State has been a horrific BIG favorite. The Rams have gone 1-8 ATS as favs of 19 > points since 1998… including a PERFECT 0-5 ATS as favs of 3 TD’s or more (-21 > pts). In this particular conference, we note that: MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE home favorites of -20 or more points (Col. St) have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATS in the last four seasons versus any opponent off an ATS win (like NEW MEXICO).
It looks like the Lobos will once again run for a LOT of yards on Saturday. After all, they’re averaging 318 rushing YPG. First off, our conservative estimate: 41-12 ATS last six years: All Conference underdogs of +17 > points who RUSH for 200 or more yards in a game (NEW MEXICO).
Next up, our more realistic estimate: These big dogs have gone 17-3 ATS / 12-1 ATS last three years if they RIUSH for 250 or more yards (NEW MEXICO).
Game Two.
Stanford’s nightmare season thankfully comes to a conclusion. Few teams have stumbled like this one. They won 11 or more games in each of their last three years. But in 2014, the Cardinal comes in at only 5-5 SU on the year. They’re riding their FIRST 2-game losing streak of the David Shaw era. They’ll take on a California team that’s reeked to get into a bowl. And they’ll become bowl-ELIGIBLE with a home win in this one. They certainly remember the score of last year’s ‘Big Game’, in which they lost to Stanford 63-13. So big time REVENGE for the home dog Golden Bears. We already know that Stanford has gone 1-3 ATS in their road games this season. In fact, they’ve YET to cover as a road favorite (0-3 ATS). It’s very tough to lay ANY points on the road with a team that’s averaging only 15 ppg as a ‘traveler’. That’s the case for the piss-poor Stanford offense. They are a whopping 120 yards WORSE on offense (378 vs 496) than Cal.
We are certainly aware that Stanford is on a roll in terms of ‘The BIG GAME’. They have won 4 straight in this series vs Cal, and have gone 3-1 ATS in the process. SO that means that Cal is playing is playing with FOUR-time Revenge, right? PAC 12 home underdogs of +11 or less points playing with ‘REVENGE x 4’ (CALIFORNIA) have gone a PERFECT 8-0 ATS since the 1990 season.
We also queried ‘road chalk’ off BB losses during this particular week of the season. Doesn’t look good for these road teams… 0-7 ATS since 2009: All GAME 11 conference road favorites of -4 > points off BB SU losses (Stanford) versus any opponent off a SU loss (CALIFORNIA).
Remember, the UNDERDOG in CALIFORNIA games has already gone 8-0-1 ATS in this 2014 season... The GOLDEN BEARS are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their history as conference home underdogs of +4 > points vs any opponent off a SU favorite loss.
Stanford was a double-digit home fav vs tag last week. They lost OUTRIGHT in overtime to sink to .500 for the first time in four seasons... 1-6 ATS since 2008: All PAC 12 favorites of -4 > pts off a SU conference home loss in which they were a DD fav (Stanford) vs any opponent off a SU loss (CAL).
Pick Made: Nov 21 2014 9:16AM PST
Double-Dime Bet
New Mexico & California
Kudos to Colorado State on a great season. Their 9-1 SU record is tops in the Mountain West Conference. But they’ve never been a reliable BIG favorite. And they’ll be asked to do just that (win by more than 3 TD’s) on Saturday as they take on the #5 rushing team in the country. That would be the NEW MEXICO LOBOS. Sharp underdog players are always on the lookout for ‘value’ rushing underdogs, and we have a tailor-made one in the Lobos. They’ll be taking on the #87 defense in the country, and have put up 318 rushing yards per game so far in the 2014 season. Not only that, but the Lobos are already PERFECT 4-0 ATS on the Mountain West Road this season (covers by +28 pts, +4.5 pts, +6 pts, and +13 points). They also come into this game on quite the current ATS run. New Mexico has honed a PERFECT 4-0 ATS in their last four games. They have lost by MORE than 21 points only ONCE this season, ad that was way back on Sept. 6th in a non-conference game versus Arizona State. The Lobos have been competitive in EVERY game since. And we’re getting MORE than 21 points. Top it off; this is a series that has been dominated by the doggie. The UNDERDOG in this Rams / Lobos series has gone 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
As mentioned above, Colorado State has been a horrific BIG favorite. The Rams have gone 1-8 ATS as favs of 19 > points since 1998… including a PERFECT 0-5 ATS as favs of 3 TD’s or more (-21 > pts). In this particular conference, we note that: MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE home favorites of -20 or more points (Col. St) have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATS in the last four seasons versus any opponent off an ATS win (like NEW MEXICO).
It looks like the Lobos will once again run for a LOT of yards on Saturday. After all, they’re averaging 318 rushing YPG. First off, our conservative estimate: 41-12 ATS last six years: All Conference underdogs of +17 > points who RUSH for 200 or more yards in a game (NEW MEXICO).
Next up, our more realistic estimate: These big dogs have gone 17-3 ATS / 12-1 ATS last three years if they RIUSH for 250 or more yards (NEW MEXICO).
Game Two.
Stanford’s nightmare season thankfully comes to a conclusion. Few teams have stumbled like this one. They won 11 or more games in each of their last three years. But in 2014, the Cardinal comes in at only 5-5 SU on the year. They’re riding their FIRST 2-game losing streak of the David Shaw era. They’ll take on a California team that’s reeked to get into a bowl. And they’ll become bowl-ELIGIBLE with a home win in this one. They certainly remember the score of last year’s ‘Big Game’, in which they lost to Stanford 63-13. So big time REVENGE for the home dog Golden Bears. We already know that Stanford has gone 1-3 ATS in their road games this season. In fact, they’ve YET to cover as a road favorite (0-3 ATS). It’s very tough to lay ANY points on the road with a team that’s averaging only 15 ppg as a ‘traveler’. That’s the case for the piss-poor Stanford offense. They are a whopping 120 yards WORSE on offense (378 vs 496) than Cal.
We are certainly aware that Stanford is on a roll in terms of ‘The BIG GAME’. They have won 4 straight in this series vs Cal, and have gone 3-1 ATS in the process. SO that means that Cal is playing is playing with FOUR-time Revenge, right? PAC 12 home underdogs of +11 or less points playing with ‘REVENGE x 4’ (CALIFORNIA) have gone a PERFECT 8-0 ATS since the 1990 season.
We also queried ‘road chalk’ off BB losses during this particular week of the season. Doesn’t look good for these road teams… 0-7 ATS since 2009: All GAME 11 conference road favorites of -4 > points off BB SU losses (Stanford) versus any opponent off a SU loss (CALIFORNIA).
Remember, the UNDERDOG in CALIFORNIA games has already gone 8-0-1 ATS in this 2014 season... The GOLDEN BEARS are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their history as conference home underdogs of +4 > points vs any opponent off a SU favorite loss.
Stanford was a double-digit home fav vs tag last week. They lost OUTRIGHT in overtime to sink to .500 for the first time in four seasons... 1-6 ATS since 2008: All PAC 12 favorites of -4 > pts off a SU conference home loss in which they were a DD fav (Stanford) vs any opponent off a SU loss (CAL).
Pick Made: Nov 21 2014 9:16AM PST
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