8-30-08

[Mr. IWS]

Ted Sevransky / teddy covers

3:30PM ET CFB 4* Best USC (-19.0 / -110) vs Virginia
3:30PM ET CFB 5* Top Oklahoma State (-7.0 / -110) vs Washington State
7:00PM ET CFB 3* Action Auburn vs Louisiana Monroe OVER 49.0 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-08

LT Profits

6:45PM ET CFB 2* Action Louisiana Tech (7.5 / -110) vs Mississippi State
7:00PM ET CFB 2* Action Northern Illinois (8.0 / -110) vs Minnesota
8:00PM ET CFB 2* Action Michigan State (4.5 / -110) vs California

[timbob]

Re: 8-30-08

ace-ace / allen eastman


4-Unit Play. Take ‘UNDER’ 40.5 Utah at Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)-105

6-Unit Play. #171 Take Oklahoma State (-7) over Washington State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)-108

3-Unit Play. #203 Arkansas State (+19) over Texas A&M (7 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)-105

4-Unit Play. #162 Take Oregon (-13.5) over Washington (10 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)-108

[timbob]

Re: 8-30-08

Welcome to the first edition of the NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 1

Recapping 2007

Since this is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, we have no results to brag about. Sports Insights did have another positive year with NCAA Football Smart Money and Square Plays, so check out those valuable Betting Systems.

If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a membership. We are a leader in sports betting information and statistics.

Overall = 0-0 = 0.0%

NCAA WEEK 1

The faces are ready to be painted. The beer is cold for the tailgate. The fans are ready to sing the fight song, and the marching band is leaving the field. No preseason games for the NCAA, only Spring games and Fall two-a-days to get the teams prepared. Week 1 can always be a guessing game based on Pre-season polls and lasting impressions from 9 months ago, but we're ready for teams to battle on the way to the BCS Championship Game in Miami.

Warning to all new readers of the Sports MarketWatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

We anticipate there will be quite a few lopsided bet games this week due to the cupcakes on the schedules of many top teams. Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here are a trio of line value games we are keying on.

NCAA Week 1 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

Bowling Green vs Pittsburgh (8/30 -12:00P)

Pittsburgh is being heavily hyped heading into the season despite a 5-7 record in 2007. Sophomore RB LeSean McCoy broke the Big East and Pittsburgh records for yards by a freshman last season, amassing 1,328 yards. The previous Panthers' record was held by NFL Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett. McCoy also tallied 14 TDs. Junior QB Bill Stull returns after missing last season with an injury.

Bowling Green isn't receiving much attention after getting stampeded by Tulsa 63-7 in the GMAC Bowl, but they did end the regular season with four straight wins. They return eight starters on offense, including Junior QB Tyler Sheehan (3,264 yards and 23 TD in 2007) and his top two WRs. The Eagles also return nine starters on defense, including the entire secondary containing multiple all-conference players.

All that preseason hype for Pitt has transferred over to the betting marketplace. This is the most lopsided bet game of the weekend, with the Panthers receiving over 90% of the bets. The line has only moved half a point with those percentages, so we like going against the public and taking Bowling Green and the points against a Pitt team that still hasn't proven anything.

Bowling Green +13

Utah vs Michigan (8/30 - 3:30P)

Michigan hopes to begin this season on the right foot after last season's shocking defeat at the hands of Appalachian State in the Big House. The start of the Rich Rodriguez era takes place at home against Utah. The Wolverines still haven't named many of their starters for the season opener, as Rodriguez is still trying to find the players that best suit his spread offense. Adding to this is the one-game suspension of RB Kevin Grady for an offseason DUI arrest. He missed last season with a knee injury, but he is one of the few returning players considered a good fit for Rodriguez's system. Michigan does return a solid defense that should keep games close.

Utah won 8 of their 9 final games last season, with their only defeat coming by a touchdown on the road to a top-25 BYU team, to finish 9-4. The Utes return eight starters from an offense that averaged over 26 points per contest in 2007. They also return eight starters on a defense that led the Mountain West Conference in defensive scoring last season, allowing only 16.8 points per game.

Michigan is receiving 68% of bets, but the line has actually moved in the opposite direction. Pinnacle opened at Michigan -3.5, but have since moved to Michigan -3, indicating some sharp money on Utah. We'll go with the sharps and against the public, to take Utah and the points. Most books are at Michigan -3, but you can still find some books with a line of Michigan -3.5, including SIA.

Utah +3.5 (Sports Interaction)

Tennessee vs UCLA (9/1 - 8P)

Traditional powerhouse Tennessee travels to LA to welcome Rick Neuheisel back to college football. Neuheisel returns to his alma mater and brings offensive mastermind Norm Chow with him as offensive coordinator. The Bruins lost starting QB Ben Olson to a season-ending foot injury early in fall camp, and JC transfer Kevin Craft gets the opening start. UCLA's defense finished last season ranked 14th in the nation against the run, and they will have to have a good day against Volunteers RB Adrian Foster and a strong offensive line. The Vols defense was up-and-down last season, but they finished the year with two strong showings against top 25 teams.

The intrigue in this game comes from the public backing the away Volunteers and pushing the line in that direction. We like home dogs at Sports Insights, especially when when they're receiving more than a touchdown in the spread. Tennessee opened as -7 favorites at Pinnacle and other books, but are currently sitting at -7.5 at most books due to receiving over 75% of public bets. We're looking for Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow to keep it close and maybe sneak out a win at home, so we're taking the Bruins +7.5.


UCLA +7.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 1.

Games to Watch (0-0)
Bowling Green +13
Utah +3.5 (Sports Interaction)
UCLA +7.5

It should be another exciting NCAA season. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won't find anywhere else.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com

[timbob]

Re: 8-30-08

WILD BILL CFB

Memphis + 9 (5 units)
Nebraska -14 (5 units)
Washington State + 6 (5 units)
Florida -33 1/2 (5 units)
Kansas -37 (5 units)
Illinois +8 (5 units)
Virginia +21 (5 units)
Rutgers -5 1/2 (5 units)
Ucla +6 (5 units)
Under 70 1/2 Florida-Hawaii (5 units)
Arizona St-Idaho Over 62 (5 units)

[timbob]

Re: 8-30-08

ATS Weekly Review Football Selections

***Best Bets***

Utah (+3) over Michigan
Washington (+ 13 1/2) over Oregon


***Preferred***

Virginia (+19) over USC
Memphis (+ 7 1/2) over Ole Miss

[timbob]

Re: 8-30-08

Gamebreaker College Football Saturday

Power Triple Play

Virginia Tech
Boston College
Clemson

[timbob]

Re: 8-30-08

Alex Smart

8:00PM ET CFB 3* Action Michigan State (5.0 / -110) vs California

[timbob]

Re: 8-30-08

Robert Ferrrrrrringo

SATURDAY'S SELECTIONS

3-Unit Play. Take #171 Oklahoma St. (-7) over Washington St. (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
Here we have two teams that are at two completely different stages. Oklahoma State is a dark horse in the ultra-competitive Big 12 which, to me, is the No. 2 conference in the country. Washington State is breaking in a new coach, an entirely new offensive system, and a new quarterback to replace the school’s all-time leading passer. The Cougars are a second-tier team in a conference on the decline (at least for this year) and I think they are still finding themselves. Also, Wazzou players have been dinged up over the past couple weeks and I’ve read reports that Wulff has said that the number of injured players is “unacceptable”. We already know they will be starting a freshman left tackle and they just dismissed DT Andy Roof this week. Further, this game is being played in Seattle, which negates some of the WSU’s home-field edge and will only make the OSU speed that much more lethal. Oklahoma State is an experience team, with a veteran quarterback leading a sharp, athletic offense. The Cowboys know what they’re doing, and coach Mike “I’m a Man” Gundy said he learned a lot from last year’s opening-week beat down at Georgia. He will have his Cowboys in Seattle a day earlier and they will be more prepared for this contest. We’ll take the talent and the more advanced offense in this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #185 Southern California (-19.5) over Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
This is one of those games that I’ve looked at and I just don’t see how it could NOT be a blowout. And it’s not that I am so overwhelmed by USC. That’s not it. It’s that Virginia caught lightning in a bottle in 2007 and were – literally – about a half-dozen plays away from being a 4-9 or 5-8 team. They lost their heart and soul in Chris Long and have been gutted on both the offensive and defensive lines. They lost their quarterback, two of their top three wideouts, and seven of their nine starting linemen. Much like the South Carolina game, this is a situation that I just don’t think that UVA will score more than 10 points. The Trojans, on the other hand, will find ways to score with their plethora of skill position players. Also, I like it that they are going on the road to start the season. It gets them out of their comfort zone, gets them away from everyone at home telling them how good they are, and makes them focus on just what’s going on between the lines. The ACC has been dreadful against other BCS schools and is 36-56-3 ATS in nonconference games over the last two years.

2-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (+13.5) over Tulsa (4 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
I think this number is a little thick for a Tulsa team that is trying to replace seven defensive starters and All-World quarterback Paul Smith. The Golden Hurricanes rang up nearly 700 total yards against the Blazers last year at home, but won just 38-30. Now they open on the road, against a more experienced, improved, revenge-minded UAB club, without their quarterback as a two-touchdown favorite? UAB is 11-1 SU in home openers dating back to 1996 and they are 8-3-1 ATS as a home dog over the last eight years. Tulsa is not a great road program, traditionally, going just 17-32 SU over the last eight seasons. And UAB has a history of early-season surprises. Remember their seven-point loss AT Oklahoma in 2006? Or how about their seven-point loss AT Tennessee in 2005? I remember both clearly. And I think that they might actually get the upset this time around.

2-Unit Play. Take #165 TCU (-6.5) over New Mexico (6 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
I am looking for a steep drop-off from New Mexico, a team that had a nice W-L record (9-4) but a weak ATS mark (5-7) last year. Basically, despite a host of talent and one of the better offenses in the Mountain West, the Lobos overachieved and got a bit lucky. Not this year. And not in this game. TCU has been dominating in conference over the last several years (34-14 SU in L6 years, 15-7-2 ATS in L3) and they have owned the Lobos. They have won three straight in the series by an average score of 38-16, including last year’s 37-0 blowout. New Mexico brings back just 10 total starters from that game, including just one offensive lineman, zero linebackers, and zero DE’s. TCU welcomes back 15 starters from the team that rocked the Lobos, including eight defensive starters. The Frogs have a load of experience and a great coach. If this game was played later in the year at this line I might stay away. But I just think that TCU is much further along than NMU and that will negate any home-field edge.

(I WOULD WAIT TO PLAY THESE NEXT TWO PICKS BECAUSE I THINK THE LINES MAY REACH +28)

1.5-Unit Play. #195 Louisiana-Monroe (+26) over Auburn (7 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
It’s a similar theme to the weekend: Auburn has a new offense, two new quarterbacks, two new coordinators, and are just 3-3 SU in their last six home openers. Yet they are laying nearly four touchdowns. Curious. Louisiana-Monroe has been spry under Charlie Weatherbie. Last year they covered as 26-point underdogs at Clemson and won as 25-point dogs at Alabama. In 2006 they went 3-1 as an underdog of 20 or more points, nearly winning at both Kansas and Kentucky, while also covering at Arkansas. In 2005 they covered at Georgia early in the year also, and in 2004 they covered at both Auburn and Arkansas as underdogs of more than four touchdowns. This is a veteran Warhawks squad, with eight retuning defensive starters and six three-year starters on offense. ULM is 9-3 ATS in the last two years as a road underdog and 12-5 ATS over the L3 years. They are also 8-3 ATS over the last four years as an underdog of 20 or more points, with most of those covers (7-2) coming on the road against SEC opponents. Tony Franklin knows UL-M from his days at Troy, but the Warhawks held Troy to two of its lowest outputs (24 each) the L2 years. That means Monroe might be more familiar with Auburn’s offense than the Tigers are!

2-Unit Play. Take #189 Idaho (+27) over Arizona (10 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
The Wildcats are just 3-14 ATS as a home favorite over the last seven years and just 1-7 ATS in the last three years. Idaho has covered its first game of the year – a road game as a huge underdog against a marquee BCS foe – in each of the past three years. Last year they actually put up nearly 200 yards of offense at USC to easily cover a 47-point line, losing 38-10. In 2006 they lost by just 10 at Michigan State (as 29-point dogs) and in 2005 they lost by just 12 at Washington State (as 29-point dogs). Arizona can’t stop anyone and the Vandals, like Arizona, return 10 starters on offense. Arizona is without a key offensive weapon and I have little, if any, confidence in Mike Stoops. And Willie Tuitama, for that matter. The Stoops-Willie combo is a bit shaky, and Stoops is just 2-5-1 ATS in nonconference games in his tenure at U of A. And that doesn’t count three shaky wins over Northern Arizona in non-lined game (agv .win: 20 points). Arizona has also won seven straight home openers, but just by an average of 20 points. I think Idaho can score just enough to keep this one interesting and keep us in the back door.

[timbob]

Re: 8-30-08

Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, August 30, 2008
$49.00 Guaranteed: We are currently on a 101-61 run with all of our guaranteed selections! Today in COLLEGE FOOTBALL we are featuring our 5000* ELITE NON CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR you can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $49 and you will pay only after you win! We were 33-11 last year in College Football so make sure you POUND THIS WINNER!! 8/29/2008

5000* ELITE NON CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
178 Florida -34 12:30 EST

[timbob]

Re: 8-30-08

Sat, 08/30/08 - 3:30 Tommy Rider | CFB Side
triple-dime bet185 Southern Cal -20.0 (-110) Bodog vs 186 Virginia
Analysis:
There is no reason for me to wait on this one. I've already bet it big. Some may look at this as being a square play. Well, you can call me Sponge Bob Square Pants because I'm all over the Trojans in this game. Everyone knows about USC and their amazing defense so I'm not going to waste your time talking about the obvious. But let's take a look at the Cavs. This offseason, the Virginia coaching staff visited Texas Tech so they could employ elements of the Red Raiders high flying spread offense. That's great. There's only one problem: Virginia has no quarterback. There is a chance that three different quarterbacks could play in this game for Virginia. It's like me saying I want to date a Supermodel. That's a great idea in theory but in reality, no good looking girl would even talk to my ugly ass.



So, Virginia is going to throw the ball a lot more this year and its first test with its new offensive system just happens to be against the fastest, nastiest defense in the country. Good luck with that. By the way, did I mention that the Cavs must replace virtually everyone on both their offensive and defensive lines? The Trojans believe they are the best team in the country and they have a chip on their shoulder after falling short of the National Title game last year. So what does this all mean? It means that Virginia is going to get hammered and that's why I'm releasing this as my WEEK 1 CFB TRIPLE PLAY

[timbob]

Re: 8-30-08

Colin Cowherd:

USC
Tennessee
Missouri
Utah
Cal
Oregon

[timbob]

Re: 8-30-08

norm hitzges

utah
wyoming
colorado
mich st

[timbob]

Re: 8-30-08

Here is a nice dog play off my card for Saturday courtesy of selectivesportssystems.The play is game 159 at 7:00 eastern the Western Michigan Broncos.The Broncos return 18 starters from last years squad and should be no pushover for a Nebraska team that severely underahieved last year.The Broncos are a solid 9-3 ats as road dogs from 14.5 to 21 long term.They also fit 2 nice opening week systems one that is 19-4 ats the other that is 14--3 ats.Lets take a look at the 14-3 system.What were looking to do in opening week play is to take certain road teams in there first game of the season, if there playing at home in a conference game next week,and todays opponent is also playing there first game of the year.Teams in this set have covered 14 of 17 times, with the 12 of them winning straight up.With Nebraska returning just 12 starters from last years dismal 5-7 team will take the Broncos. to hang with the Huskers here on Saturday.The overall record on plays at youwinnow is 105-69 since march 1st.This record can be retrieved at any time,bol with the Broncos GC-

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-08

Players of America



Today's Selections


TCU vs. N MEX
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: TCU Horned Frogs vs. New Mexico Lobos
The Play: New Mexico Lobos +7.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Writeup:
And we're off! Six total plays to kick off the college football season this Saturday. Keep in mind it is important to get a nice, solid feel for all of these teams before placing any wagers over our heads. Welcome to the 2008-2009 NCAA football season, brought to you by your very own Players of America.

Our first release comes to us live from the state of New Mexico. At 7:00PM EST, the Lobos of New Mexico will play host to the TCU Horned Frogs. We'll be all over the home dog here, and this is why. The Lobos are not a bad team. It is almost a slap in the face for Vegas to smack seven points on these fella's backs right off the get go. This team WON a bowl game last year and piled up an overall 9-4 record. Don't get us wrong, TCU is a solid overall team, but come on. The Lobo's absolutely laid it on Nevada opening week last year 23 to zip. After that they smacked UNLV 27-6. They went on through the season and beat Colorado State, San Diego State, Wyoming, Sacramento State, Arizona, New Mexico State along with a very talented Air Force team. These guys can play football. That is one thing their good at. Now, let's rewind a bit. Last season NM went into Fort Worth, Texas and got their rear ends handed to them by this same TCU group. Don't think that a little revenge isn't lingering in these player's minds.

Donovan Porterie is back assuming the starting role at QB for the Lobos. This guy makes it all happen. He's over looked, under-hyped and gets little credit more of less because of that Mountain West Conference out west. He threw just eight picks last season behind 3060 passing yards. In addition, he completed 59% of his passes. He had the absolute worst day of his career last season against this TCU team and now is the time to go out and regain that composure.

The Frogs are legit all the way around. "Legit" enough to come in and lay a TD on the line to this team? Not really. They are good when their good and bad when their bad. Their inconsistency cost them some decisions last year as they played dead against Utah and couldn't handle the passing attack of the Air Force Falcons (something the Lobos will be sure to exploit). Wyoming also played TCU's game as they squeaked out a win last season against the Frogs.

All in all, this one comes down to value. There is absolutely, positively no reason that this New Mexico team doesn't start this fresh season out at 1-0. Vegas is begging for action on a short line with a highly touted and hyped TCU team from the past. Don't fall into trap they've set. Porterie, the Lobos and home field advantage plus the underdog status for a 3* / 30 unit wager Saturday evening.

New Mexico 28, TCU 17


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UTAH vs. MICH
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: Utah Utes vs. Michigan Wolverines
The Play: Michigan Wolverines -3.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup:
You have got to be kidding. All the sharps think they're on to something here, right? Utah, the talk of the town...upset central to the "big time" Michigan Wolverines. "They lost to Appy State to open last year, they aren't that good!" "They've got all kinds of drama in the head coach position, question marks in the roster, and more!" SAVE IT...please. Utah is out classed, out coached, over matched in virtually every position and WILL be out played today in The Big House. You may laugh and say this one is a trap, but so be it...we'll dive in head first for the bait.

The Wolverines have a lot, and we mean A LOT, of eyeballs on them this Saturday. They may have question marks all over the place, but Sunday morning those turn into exclamation points. The Utes come in with that lethal passing attack, and more than likely a clear frame of mind. People are forgetting, Michigan went out with a bang last season. They went out how a major-conference team is suppose to. They went out Bowl Champions of a supposed sub par league. They went out knocking a "BCS Contender" back to where they came from. They showed life. They showed pride. Adapting to changes in Michigan may have been difficult for many of these young players, but that is part of the collegiate process...changes.

Digging up stats, figures and trends won't be necessary here. Michigan is Michigan. They are a powerhouse, smash mouth football team and on Saturday, August 30th they take hold of those reigns again by, making a big time statement. The blue and yellow, the Big M, the Wolves minus the small margin for a 1* / 10 unit wager.

Michigan 30, Utah 17


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VT vs. ECU
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: Virginia Tech Hokies vs. East Carolina Pirates
The Play: East Carolina Pirates +10.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup:
Our next release will be a doozy. Coming live from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, the Virginia Tech Hokies meet the East Carolina Pirates for an opening show down. Both of these teams are looking to take their program to the next level. Both are capable of big things this year with Tech probably getting a little more notoriety than the Pirates.

There is quite a contest at the quarterback position for Va Tech. Red shirt senior Sean Glennon has recently been tabbed the starting QB for the Hokies. He'll make his debut this afternoon. The highly talked about Tyrod Taylor will be sidelined as a red shirt this season, his sophomore. On September first last season, the East Carolina Pirates waltzed into Virginia and faced this very team. They came out behind at the end of the day, 17-7. They lost to the #9 ranked team in the country, the Hokies, by ten points in Blacksburg. If that alone doesn't tell you something, or give you some sort of idea the type of energy and intensity this team plays with, then you don't know football very well. Blacksburg, VA has been one of the toughest locations for a football team to travel to and play in.

ECU went a respectable 8-5 overall last season. They topped things off on December 23 by beating a very good Boise State team 41-38 in an absolute thriller. Other big wins for this squad included UNC, Tulane, Houston, Central Florida and more. They play with heart, they play with passion and to be, in essence, at home in front of family and friends this afternoon, it's a great spot.

Flip on ESPN at Noon EST Saturday for this one. Expect adrenaline to be pumping with this nationally televised dual, and the underdog East Carolina Pirates to put up a fight to the very end. These fellas plus double digits is well worthy of a 1* / 10 unit early day wager.

East Carolina 24, VA Tech 22


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OK ST vs. WASH ST
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Washington State Cougars
The Play: Oklahoma State Cowboys -7.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A


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MISS ST vs. LA TECH
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
The Play: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +7.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A


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ILL vs. MIZZ
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Missouri Tigers
The Play: Over 58.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A