12-6-14

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Dr. Bob


*BOISE STATE (-21) 46 Fresno State 19

Sat Dec-06-2014 at 07:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 130 Over/Under 68.5

Boise State only won by 10 points, 37-27, when they hosted Fresno State earlier this season but Fresno applied to a 51-18-3 ATS situation for that game, which kept me from playing the Broncos. This time there is nothing to keep me from playing Boise State, as Fresno actually applies to a 39-108-1 ATS road dog situation that is 0-2 ATS when applying to a team playing as the visitor in their conference championship game. I’m not playing this game based on that situation but rather based on my math model, which gives Boise a profitable 54.4% chance of covering at -21 points based on the historical performance of my model.

Boise State’s offense had a down game in their first meeting with Fresno, as the Broncos should have gained more than 498 yards at 6.2 yards per play given that they have an offense that is 1.0 yards per play better than average (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and Fresno’s defense would allow 6.4 yppl on the road to an average FBS attack (0.6 yppl worse than an average team). Fresno’s average defensive rating is actually worse than that, as the Broncos have allowed 6.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. However, that average is skewed by a horrendous game against sub-par Wyoming offense in which the Bulldogs gave up 694 yards at 9.9 yppl. My model adjusts for outliers, which is why I have Fresno’s defense rated at 0.6 yppl worse than average instead of 1.0 yppl worse than average. The math projects 593 yards at 7.5 yppl for Boise State in the rematch, as quarterback Grant Hedrick should average more than the 9.0 yards per completion that he averaged in the first game (his lowest average of the season) given that Hedrick averages 12.4 ypc for the season and Fresno has allowed 14.1 ypc this year. Hedrick completed 70% of his passes in that first game against the Bulldogs, so it’s not like his receivers weren’t getting open. If Fresno would have allowed their normal 14 yards per completion in that game then Boise would have had 594 total yards, which is the same as what’s projected for this game by the math model. Even with their better than normal result against Boise State in their first meeting the Bulldogs still allowed an average of 49.3 points to the 3 good offensive teams that they faced this season (USC, Nebraska, and Boise) and Boise State has rung up 50 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games and should approach that number in this game.

It will be a challenge for Fresno’s offense to keep up, as the Bulldogs sub-par attack (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) is up against a better than average Boise State defense that rates at 0.4 yppl better than average after adjusting for outliers. Boise’s average defensive rating is just 0.1 yppl better than average but they allowed New Mexico’s option attack to gain 627 yards at 9.7 yppl, which skewed that average upwards. Fresno doesn’t run any option, so Boise’s problems defending the option won’t surface in this game and the Bulldogs are projected to gain a modest 343 yards at 4.7 yppl in this game. Fresno gained 313 yards at 5.3 yppl in the earlier meeting but that yppl average was skewed by a 76 yard run and the Broncos averaged just 4.1 yppl in their other 58 offensive plays that game while one of their other touchdowns was after Boise turned the ball over at their own 5 yard line. Fresno actually only had two scoring drives of more than 2 plays in that game, both resulting in field goals, and I don’t see them having any consistent success offensively this time around either (6 of their 13 drives in the first meeting were 3 and out).

The first meeting between these teams was very misleading and it should ensure that Boise State is focused more than they would be had that first game been the blowout that this game is likely to be. There is value on the side of Boise and the situation is favorable this time around and I’ll make a small play on the Broncos.





I’ll take Boise State in a 1-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SHEEP

Boise St -19 ($800)

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StatFox Super Situations

CFB | OKLAHOMA ST at OKLAHOMA
Play Against - Road underdogs (OKLAHOMA ST) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off a home blowout win by 28 points or more
81-40 since 1997. ( 66.9% | 37.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

CFB | OKLAHOMA ST at OKLAHOMA
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (OKLAHOMA ST) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
8-6 this year. ( 57.1% | 1.4 units )

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Dave Cokin:

121 Louisiana Tech +12
128 Ohio State +4

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Doc's Sports



5 Unit Play. #121 Take Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +11.5 over Marshall Thundering Herd

(Conference USA Championship, Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2)

Marshall's dream of reaching a major bowl game came to a crashing end last week against WKU. They scored 66 points yet lost the game. They really do not have much motivation to play this game, and they are facing a better team than the one that beat them last Friday. La Tech put up a ton of points last week as well, and they have the weapons to keep pace with the Thundering Herd. The underdog has won this championship game straight up two of the last three years. Louisiana Tech is 4-0 this season as a road underdog. This will be a very competitive game, and getting double digits is too good to pass up.



5 Unit Play. #125 Take Florida State Seminoles -4 over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

TOP College Football Play of the Week

(ACC Championship, Saturday, 8 pm ABC) .

I am done proclaiming that Florida State is due for a breakout game because they have not done that at any point down the stretch. That being said, they are much more talented than Georgia Tech, especially without DeAndre Smelter as he is doubtful for this game with a knee injury. That is a major void for Georgia Tech, and I do not feel that they will be able to overcome this loss at wide receiver. Florida State is 13-2 straight up against Georgia Tech. People seem to believe that playing a triple-option team is impossible to prepare for, but I do not believe that is true. Florida State has speed, and that is how you prevent big plays. The Noles will be able to move the football through the air at will and win this game by double digits. Florida State is 12-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 neutral-site games. Georgia Tech is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played during the month of December.



5 Unit Play. #127 Take Wisconsin Badgers -3.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes

(Big Ten Championship, Saturday 8 pm FOX)

The pointspread likely swung 7 points with the news that JT Barrett is out as quarterback for Ohio State. That being said, we really like the Badgers as they are the much better team on defense and always have a much stronger running game. Wisconsin still has their Heisman Candidate in Melvin Gordon as he passed Ron Dayne last week for most rushing yards by a Badger in a single season. Wisconsin has held nine opponents this season to under 300 total yards. Wisconsin is 2-0 in Big Ten Championship Games, and Ohio State has yet to record a title in the small history of this game. Ohio State is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Wisconsin dominates the ground game, and we collect in the process as well.

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Robert Ferringo

8* Florida State
1* Iowa St.
1* Temple
1* Kan St.
1* Okla St
2* Loui Tec

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Indian Cowboy

8* Florida State

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Strike Point Sports

5* Florida State

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Chris Torissi:

5* Louisiana Tech +11

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Mike Davis
CFB.
8*Temple
5* UCon
5* Flor St

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Jason Sharpe

8 Unit NCAAF Game Of the Year

Wisconsin -4

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Greg Shaker | CFB Total
Sat, 12/06/14 - 4:00 PM


triple-dime bet
Missouri / Alabama Over 48.5

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sleepyj | CFB Total
Sat, 12/06/14 - 10:00 PM


double-dime bet
Fresno St. / Boise St. Over 68.0

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Ben Burns football

Breakfast club Iowa st

Best bet Tulane

Conf championship goy Florida st