12-6-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ivey Walters

CFB Double Dime 2% Ohio State +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root

Pinnacle - OHIO STATE
Inner Circle - MISSOURI
Perfect Play - FLORIDA STATE
Millioniares - BAYLOR

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges

December 5-8
Here are your Picks of the Pole for the football games of Dec. 5-8.




COLLEGE FOOTBALL


DOUBLE PLAYS: Oklahoma -21 Oklahoma State
Missouri +14 1/2 Alabama
Georgia Tech +4 Florida state


SINGLE PLAY's



TCU -34 Iowa State
SMU +12 UConn
Kansas State +7 1/2 Baylor
La. The +11 Marshall
Ohio State +4 Wisconsin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER (CFB)

6-Unit Play. Take Florida St. -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN (CFB)
(W) – 7-Unit Play. Take #103 Central Florida (+6.5) over East Carolina (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 4)
6-Unit Play. Take #126 Georgia Tech (+4.5) over Florida State (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 6)
I will definitely take the points with this one! Georgia Tech is on a roll. They are coming off a big win over Georgia last week in Athens. If they can go into an SEC stadium and get a win over a Top 20 team like Georgia they can win this game on a neutral field. Florida State is undefeated. But they have been lucky all season long with several come from behind winners. They are just 3-9 ATS and have covered only two spreads since early October. Both of them were come back wins, including a lucky cover at Louisville. They should be 2-10 ATS. Georgia Tech has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and they are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Their option can be very difficult to stop for teams that are not prepared for it. I do not think the Seminoles will take Tech seriously. But they are a very serious underdog and Paul Johnson has been great in that role for years. I think Johnson will work his underdog magic again and this could be just the game that throws the playoff system up in the air! Take the Jackets and look for an outright winner.
4-Unit Play. Take #116 Cincinnati (-7) over Houston (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 6)
This Bearcats team is as hot as any team in the country. They have won and covered six straight and most of them have been blowouts. Houston is not nearly as good of a team and most of their wins this year have come against the bottom teams in the American Athletic. Cincinnati beat Houston on the road last year and they dominated that game. They outgained the Cougars 593-278 and most of the same players are back for this one. Only Cincinnati gets this one at home and it will be an emotional final home game for this veteran team. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. It will also be much colder than The Bearcats need this game to claim a share of the regular season title in the conference and they should get it. They have been one of the best teams in the league.
3-Unit Play. Take #121 Louisiana Tech (+11) over Marshall (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 6)
The Thundering Herd have to feel awful going into this game. They were undefeated and making a move toward a major bowl game. But then last week they were upset 67-66 by Western Kentucky at home as a 24-point favorite! That had to take the wind out of their sails. They were almost upset as a 19-point favorite the week before at UAB. This team is overrated by the public and by the books. They are not as motivated this week as they would have been if they were trying to complete the perfect season. Louisiana Tech is a very good team. They scored 76 points last weekend and have scored 40 or more in three of their last four games. I think that Marshall is brokenhearted after last week. I don’t see them getting up enough to get a big blowout here. I will take the underdog here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

NCAAF

4* (125) Florida State -$185

NCAAB

1* (564) Tulane +1.5
1* (585) Weber State +2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookieshunter NCAA College Football

#117 K State +7 @ #118 Baylor (2*)
#115 Houston +7.5 @ # 116 Cincinnati (2*)
#121 La. Tech +10 @ #122 Marshall (3*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE (CFB)

***CFB GAME OF THE YEAR***

8 Unit Play Take #127 Wisconsin -4 over Ohio State (Saturday 8:15pm est):

I was looking to bet on Wisconsin in this match-up even before the injury to Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett as we have one of the more undervalued teams in the country here going against one of more overvalued one’s.

The loss of Barrett to Ohio State is huge. This is just a guy having an average season but instead this was the Big Ten quarterback of the year and a guy many felt was a Heisman finalist as well. The Buckeyes go with Cardale Jones here in this game. This is asking a lot of Jones who came into this season as the 3rd string quarterback and still hasn’t taken a meaningful snap yet. This isn’t guy who is in this position because he’s played well and took over the quarterback job but instead he’s only playing because of injuries. He’s not only being asked to beat one of the top defenses in the nation here in his first real action of his college football career but he also has the pressure of trying to win a conference championship and on top of that to do enough to impress the college football playoff committee as well.

Wisconsin comes playing some excellent football. If not for an unlucky turnover filled game against Northwestern earlier this season they would also be undefeated in the Big Ten. Their only other loss was against LSU in a game they dominated for most of the game. The Badgers have the top running back in the country in Melvin Gordon and he will be a load to stop. The Buckeyes defense has struggled against some of the better running teams they’ve faced as 3 of their last 4 opponents ran for over 5 yards a carry and averaged over 200 yards against them. The Badgers haven’t been stopped this season on the ground and I don’t expect them to be here either.

Take Wisconsin in this one.

3-Unit Play. Take Cincinnati-7

3-Unit Play. Take Florida St.-4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS (CFB)

5-Unit Play. Take #125 Florida State (-4) over Georgia Tech (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 6)

I have been a huge fan of Georgia Tech all season. We have won some nice cash on the Wramblin’ Wreck from Georgia Tech throughout the year, but they aren’t ready for this one. This is a tough, tough spot for GT. First, they are coming off a huge, emotional win over their arch nemesis, the Georgia Bulldogs, and second, they are running in to a team in FSU that has been bored all season. This Florida State team has had to deal with off field drama, trying to stay motivated, and getting knocked around the national rankings, even though they are undefeated for the second straight season (leading up to this point). Yes, FSU has struggled to pull away from teams, and yes, they have even been down big in a few contests, but like I said, they look bored. I saw this team first hand when they played Syracuse in the dome, and the sideline looked as if they were just going through the motions. At this point in the season, with what is at stake, it is all about to change for Florida State. This team knows that it is time to turn it up, and they know the CFB world is watching. The Seminoles are ready to make a statement, to secure their spot in the College Football Playoff, and an easy win over Georgia Tech will do just that. Florida State is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 December games. Georgia Tech meanwhile is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 December games. Lay the points in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob

*Kansas State (+7 ½) 32 BAYLOR 31
Sat Dec-06-2014 at 04:45 PM Pacific Rotation: 117 Over/Under 66.5 - Matchup Stats
Kansas State Money Line Play at +250 for 0.5 Stars
Kansas State continues not to get the respect that they deserve despite their 8-1 ATS record over their last 9 games and coach Bill Snyder’s 154-101 (60.4%) ATS record in all games since 1990 (his second season in his first stint with the Wildcats). The Wildcats have played just one bad game all season, a 20-41 loss at TCU, as their other loss was 14-20 loss to Auburn in a game they should have won. Even that TCU loss wasn’t that bad, as the Wildcats averaged 7.0 yards per play and allowed 6.7 yppl in that game. Kansas State is every bit as good as Baylor is from the line of scrimmage and the Wildcats are much, much better in special teams.

Baylor’s strength is obviously their offense, which has averaged 569 yards and 47.8 points in 10 games against FBS opposition. However, this season’s Bears aren’t quite as explosive when you look at it from a yards per play perspective, as they’ve averaged 6.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. While being 0.7 yppl better than average is good, it’s actually not as good as Kansas State’s offense, which has averaged 6.5 yppl against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. If I assume that Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty plays (he’s questionable with concussion symptoms but had a full practice on Thursday and said he expects to play), and throw out his not so good game 1 performance against SMU when he was struggling with an injury, then Baylor’s offense would rate at 1.0 yppl better than average, which is still not quite as good as Kansas State’s +1.1 yppl rating. Baylor actually does have an overall edge offensively because the Bears run a lot more plays than their opponents but that edge is not as significant as the edge that Kansas State has on defense.

Kansas State’s defense has yielded only 5.1 yards per play this season to FBS opponents despite facing a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average FBS defense and while the Wildcats didn’t play well against TCU and Oklahoma, they did hold Auburn’s prolific attack to just 5.0 yppl and 20 points and also kept the very good offenses of Texas Tech and West Virginia in check (just 13 point for Texas Tech and 5.1 yppl and 20 points allowed to West Virginia). The Wildcats’ defense has been a lot better than a Baylor defense that rates at 0.5 yppl better than average, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. The numbers aren’t quite as good if I only use Big 12 games, which excludes the 67 total yards and 1.0 yppl they gave up when they overwhelmed SMU’s pathetic offense in week 1, but even if I include that SMU game I still rate Kansas State’s defense at 0.6 yppl better than the Baylor defense. The Bears have had a particularly tough time defending quality pass attacks, as they allowed an average of 349 passing yards at 8.5 yards per pass play to TCU, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech over the last 7 weeks (they performed well against Oklahoma, but only because the Sooners were without their star WR Shepard). Kansas State’s Jake Waters is a more efficient passer than Baylor’s Bryce Petty, as Waters has averaged 8.3 yards per pass play against FBS opponents that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback (Petty is 2.1 yppp better than average). I just don’t see Baylor’s suspect secondary stopping Waters given that the Bears’ pass defense is 0.6 yppp worse than the average of the teams that Waters has faced this season.

Kansas State has a clear advantage on a yards per play perspective, as the Wildcats are slightly better in that regard offensively and much better defensively. Baylor makes up for that difference by controlling the ball, as they have averaged 17.8 more plays per game than their opponents and are projected to have a 17.7 play advantage in this game. However, Kansas State is one of the best teams in the nation in special teams with a 2.9 yards edge in net punts and a 6.5 yards advantage in net kick off yard line average (their average starting yard line on a kickoff is 30.9 yard line and their opponent’s is the 24.4 yard line), which matters in a game with a lot of kickoffs expected. Baylor is just average in those categories and the field position due to special teams is a hidden advantage for Kansas State. Kansas State is a better overall team and Baylor may be a bit overrated due to being +9 in fumble margin in their 10 FBS games. That positive fumble margin is random and has benefitted Baylor an average of 3.2 points per game – points that aren’t likely to translate going forward. Baylor does have a strong home field advantage, as they are 18-3 ATS at home since 2011, but the Bears have won by more than 7 points just twice in 8 home games since 2011 when not favored by 10 points or more. Baylor is a bully that doesn’t play as well against other good teams while Kansas State is at their best as an underdog (53-28 ATS as a dog under Snyder since 1990, including 3-1 ATS this season). I do have a couple of general situations that favor Baylor but neither is strong enough to keep me off of Kansas State here – although I will make this a smaller rated play than the math merits (Kansas State is a 57% play based solely on the math). I’ll take Kansas State in a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more. I also will play 0.5 Stars on Kansas State on the Money Line at (+250 or so).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRIAN EDWARDS (CFB)

Missouri +14.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Play

Game: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Time: Saturday 12/06 8:15 PM Eastern
Pick: Ohio State +4.5 (-102)

Ohio State has had an amazing season. When you consider they lost their starting QB before a single snap was made, and now have lost their #2 QB, and sitting at 11-1 with a chance to make the Final Four if things go right is pretty amazing. Cardale Jones will now call the signals, and he was a #12 rated pick overall coming out of high school, and he has great speed and size. He has run 26 times on the season for over 200 yards and 7.9 yards per carry, so I don’t think the Ohio State offense is going to slow down too much. Urban Meyer has enjoyed the spotlight in the role of a pick ‘em or a dog, where he is 15-9 straight-up and 18-6 ATS in his coaching career. Wisconsin has had success with Heisman hopeful Melvin Gordon. Gordon has run for 2,260 yards and 26 TDs on the season. I think this line has been over-adjusted with the OSU QB situation, disregarding the skill level of this entire Ohio State team. Wisconsin has been a dog in this series in 44 of the last 46 games played, and the two times they have been favored, they lost straight up, and I would not be surprised if that is three after this one. Take Ohio State and the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Lab

NCAA:
5* Missouri +14.5 *
1* SMU +11.5
1* Louisiana Tech +11.5

[golden contender]

GC: NCAAF Play

Saturday The 7* 100% Highest Rated College Football Game of the Year takes center stage along with 4 more Powerful systems winners. In the NBA a 30-1 Power angle side play and 15-1 totals system are up along with Powerful College Hoops winners. Football overall is ranked #1 for a 5th straight week. Free NCAAF Play below




The free American Athletic Conference play is on Houston. Game 115 at 12 noon eastern. Houston has Home loss revenge for last seasons loss to Cincy. They are 5-1 ats as dogs with revenge off a win of 10 or more and dogs of more than 3 to +10 that are off 2 straight conference wins are 66-28 ats vs an opponent off a road win. The Cougars are 9-0 ats in lined road games and have won both games this season vs winning opponents. They have also covered 4 of 5 on the road when the total is 56.5 to 63. Look for a good game between these two with Houston getting the cover. Don't miss the Saturday The 7* 100% Highest Rated College Football Game of the Year takes center stage along with 4 more Powerful systems winners. In the NBA a 30-1 Power angle side play and 15-1 totals system. NCAAB Power Angle and simulator plays will be added throughout the day. Football is ranked #1 for a 5th straight week on some of the high end leader boards. Message Jump on now and Cash big with the most powerful data in the Industry. For the free play take Houston. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SHARP

4 Units Each
NCAAF - Ohio St. +4.5
NBA - Golden St. Warriors -2.5