12-13-14

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MADDUX SPORTS (CFB)

Saturday – Army/Navy – Under 59.5 {10*}

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EXECUTIVE FOOTBALL

passes

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BURNS FOOTBALL

best of the best - army/navy under

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Steve Fezzik
Under Army/Navy

selection has been pulled down because of the line movement.

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Tiger


TOTAL under 29 -110 (1H ARMY vrs 1H NAVY)

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Doc's Sports

4 Unit Play. #303/#703 Take Army Black Knights +15 over Navy Midshipmen (Saturday 3 pm CBS) The Midshipmen have dominated this series of late, winning 12 straight games, but the Black Knights have closed the gap in recent years. Army has a new coach this season, and the results have been solid already with 4 wins compared to just 3 last season. Navy already has five losses this season, and they have only blown out teams (which would cover this number) this season. Army has been waiting for this game for three weeks, and I just do not see Navy running over them. The Mids lost to Air Force, and Army played Air Force pretty well, holding them to just 23 points. Grab the points in this battle! Navy is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.

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Norm Hitzges

Army / Navy UNDER 57.5

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Navy vs. Army

The Black Knights (4-7 SU) take on a Midshipmen team that is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games versus teams with a losing SU record. Army is the pick (+15) according to Dunkel, which has Navy favored by only 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Army (+15). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 13 Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (12/10)

Game 303-304: Navy vs. Army (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Navy 78.230; Army 65.643 Dunkel Line: Navy by 12 1/2; 62 Vegas Line: Navy by 15; 57 Dunkel Pick: Army (+15); Over

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PREDICTION MACHINE (CFB)

AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)

Rot – Time (ET) – Pick – Opp Line – Margin – Pick% – $
304 3:00 PM ARMY vs NAVY ♦ 15 ♦ -12.9 ♦ 52.6% ♦ $2



STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Rot – Time (ET) – Favorite – Opp – Points For – Points Against – Win%
303 3:00 PM NAVY vs ARMY ♦ 37.8 ♦ 24.9 ♦ 68.7%



OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Home – Rot – Time (ET) – Matchup – Line Total – Points – Pick – Pick% – $
304 3:00 PM NAVY vs. ARMY ♦ 57.5 ♦ 62.7 ♦ Over 56.3% ♦ $41


PREDICTION MACHINE (CFB)

AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)

Rot – Time (ET) – Pick – Opp Line – Margin – Pick% – $
304 3:00 PM ARMY vs NAVY ♦ 15 ♦ -12.9 ♦ 52.6% ♦ $2



STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Rot – Time (ET) – Favorite – Opp – Points For – Points Against – Win%
303 3:00 PM NAVY vs ARMY ♦ 37.8 ♦ 24.9 ♦ 68.7%



OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times)
Home – Rot – Time (ET) – Matchup – Line Total – Points – Pick – Pick% – $
304 3:00 PM NAVY vs. ARMY ♦ 57.5 ♦ 62.7 ♦ Over 56.3% ♦ $41


College Football Picks
Game of the Week Analysis
Army vs. Navy: Predictalator Picks

ATS Pick of the Week: Army +15 vs. Navy (Covers 53%), OVER 57.5 (56%)
The lone game of the week for the college football (FBS) schedule is not just the default “game of the week,” it’s a compelling matchup between two rival programs. Army and Navy head to Baltimore to face off in their annual iteration of the fourth oldest and 11th most often played rivalry in college football. Navy leads the series 58-49-7 all-time and has won 12 straight. The Midshipmen are prohibitive favorites (by simulation and spread) to win again, but that does not mean that we expect Navy to cover the more than two touchdown spread.

Army enters this game 4-7 straight-up and 3-6 against-the-spread versus the 127th ranked college football schedule. The Knights rank just 118th in our College Football Power Rankings. Army’s defense ranks in the bottom ten against the run and the pass in all of the FBS. None of that is good. However, for a non-Power Five conference team, Army is above average on the ground and has experience defending Navy’s option-heavy ground attack. And, though there are some ugly blowouts, Army was able to keep the game within two touchdowns in two road losses earlier in the season, meaning in six of eleven games on the year, the Knights would have covered this 15 point spread. Senior running back Larry Dixon, who has never defeated Navy yet has dealt with injuries throughout his career, is the key to his team’s offensive effort. Dixon averages 5.8 yards-per-carry on the year. When he has had at least 20 rushes this season, Army is 3-0 this year. He is coming off of a 22 carry, 158 yard performance on the ground in the win over Fordham.

Navy is 6-5 straight-up and 5-5 ATS against the 77th ranked schedule in college football this year. Even with six victories and an easy schedule, Navy has only won by 15 or more points once over an FBS team all season (at home against Georgia Southern, 52-19, in Week 12). The Navy defense has been an issue as the Midshipmen rank just 102nd against the pass and 93rd nationally against the run. Navy has allowed an average of 31.5 points-per-game, while opponents have averaged five yards-per-carry against the team. On the year, Navy played six games against teams ranked 85th or worse in our Power Rankings. The Midshipmen went 4-2 straight-up in those games, but out-scored opponents by an average of just 32.8-30.3 in those games. This team is not good enough defensively nor really built to blow out the opposition.

According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator at PredictionMachine, Navy wins over Army 68.7% of the time and by an average score of 38-25. As 15 underdogs projected to lose by less than two touchdowns, the Knights cover the spread 53% of the time, which is barely enough to justify a playable pick (52.4% is break even odds when wagering 11 to win 10, or -110). The total goes OVER 57.5 56.3% of the time, which warrants a wager of $41 from a normal $50 player.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Chicago won its last eight games, allowing 13 goals.
-- Maple Leafs won seven of their last nine games.
-- Washington won three of its last four games.
-- Sabres won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Blue Jackets won last five games (three of last four in OT/SO). Pittsburgh won six of its last nine.
-- Anaheim won last six games, scoring 23 goals.
-- Minnesota is 5-0 in game following its last five losses.
-- St Louis won seven of its last ten games.
-- Nashville won 12 of its last 16 games. San Jose won six of its last seven.

Cold teams
-- Boston lost six of its laat eight games. Senators lost six of last seven.
-- Hurricanes lost four in row, 11 of last 14 games. Philly lost 13 of its last 16.
-- Islanders lost last three games, allowing 17 goals.
-- Detroit lost last two games, scoring three goals; they've won four of last five on road.
-- Tampa Bay lost four of last five road games.
-- Florida is 2-9 this season in game following a win.
-- Winnipeg is 3-4 in its last seven home games.
-- Coyotes lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Dallas Stars lost five of their last six games. Devils lost eight of their last ten.
-- Colorado lost four of its last five games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last six road games. Vancouver lost its last three games, all on road.

Series records
-- Bruins won three of last four games with Ottawa,
-- Flyers lost their last four games with Carolina.
-- Islanders lost four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Red Wings won three of last four visits to Toronto.
-- Lightning lost three of last four games with Washington.
-- Sabres lost eight of last ten games with Florida.
-- Penguins won last seven games with Columbus.
-- Ducks won six of last eight games with Winnipeg.
-- Coyotes lost five of last six games with Minnesota.
-- Devils won three of last four games with Dallas.
-- Blues won five of last six games with Colorado.
-- Rangers won their last four games with Vancouver.
-- Sharks lost five of last six games with Nashville.

Totals
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Ottawa-Boston games.
-- Last six Carolina games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-2 in last nine Chicago games, 0-3 in last three Islander games.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Detroit games.
-- Four of last five Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Florida games.
-- Five of last six Penguin games stayed under.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Anaheim games.
-- Four of last five Arizona games went over total.
-- Five of last six Dallas games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine St Louis games.
-- Six of last eight Ranger-Canuck games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Nashville games stayed under.

Back-to-back
-- Red Wings are 2-1 if they played the night before.
-- Panthers are 1-1 if they played night before.
-- Pittsburgh is 2-2 if it played night before.
-- Anaheim is 2-1 if it played night before.

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StatFox Super Situations

NHL | ST LOUIS at COLORADO
Play On - Road teams against the money line (ST LOUIS) after 6 or more consecutive overs, quick starting team-outscoring opp by 0.2+ goals/game in first period
48-15 since 1997. ( 76.2% | 36.3 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.1 units )

NHL | ST LOUIS at COLORADO
Play On - Any team against the money line (ST LOUIS) after 6 or more consecutive overs, excellent defensive team - allowing <=2.4 goals/game on the season
28-6 since 1997. ( 82.4% | 22.4 units )

NHL | ST LOUIS at COLORADO
Play On - Road teams against the money line (ST LOUIS) after 6 or more consecutive overs, good team - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game
54-22 since 1997. ( 71.1% | 32.8 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.1 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

NBA | DENVER at HOUSTON
Play On - Road teams (DENVER) after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
92-47 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.2% | 40.3 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% | -1.3 units )

NBA | BROOKLYN at CHARLOTTE
Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (CHARLOTTE) cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
119-71 since 1997. ( 62.6% | 47.4 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

NBA | DENVER at HOUSTON
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
89-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.3 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

CBB | TEXAS ST at TEXAS
Play On - A home team (TEXAS) average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )

CBB | LA-MONROE at NEW MEXICO
Play Against - Any team (NEW MEXICO) off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins
260-171 since 1997. ( 60.3% | 82.8 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

CBB | S CAROLINA ST at MARYLAND
Play Against - Underdogs of 11 or more points vs. the first half line (S CAROLINA ST) after a combined score of 110 points or less
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )

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Scott Spreitzer | CBB Sides

Nebraska -4.0 vs Cincinnati triple-dime bet
Analysis: I'm laying the points with Nebraska on Saturday night. The Huskers are in off a rough home loss to Incarnate Word and they're on a 19-6-1 ATS run following a SU loss. While knee-jerk reaction has many thinking a loss to IWU equates to a loss against an NAIA-level opponent, the truth is, the Cardinals are not that bad, standing 6-1 SU and beating Princeton by 11 points. Having said that, it sure doesn't look too good to lose to the Cards on your home floor when you had preseason thoughts of challenging for the Big-10 title and finally winning a game or two in the Big Dance. Nebraska is now in an early-season situation where the game against the Bearcats has taken on even bigger meaning. The Cornhuskers have a lot of talent back from last season, including a pair of big-time scorers in Terran Petteway (20.6 ppg) and Shavon Shields (18.2 ppg). Cincinnati's record (6-1) looks shiny †, but they have faced a slate of "softies," losing their only game against halfway decent opposition when Ole Miss beat the Bearcats 66-54 on November 29. Saturday also marks the first time this season UC will play a true road game and Mick Cronin's troops own a negative assist-turnover ratio. In fact, they had 14 more turnovers than assists in their previous six games before a win last time out over out-manned Stony Brook. At the same time, Cincy does not bring much pressure on the defensive end and UNL has thrived against these kinds of teams, currently on a 40-17 ATS run at home against teams that force no more than 14 ppg. Nebraska is also 7-0 ATS as home chalk of less than six points, winning by nearly 13 ppg. while the Bearcats, who haven't played since December 2, are 0-6 ATS under Cronin when playing with at least seven days off between games. I expect Husker coach Tim Miles to have his team focused and champing at the bit and I'm laying the points, my Tapout GOM.

VMI -12.0 vs Marist double-dime bet
Analysis: I'm laying the points with VMI on Saturday. The Marist Red Foxes are 1-8 SU on the season and they're now officially a mess. Marist has lost four players, including Khalid Hart (24.5 ppg.) to a foot injury and now Chavaughn Lewis (17.9 ppg.) is expected to miss this game with an ankle injury. Not only does that erase over 42 ppg. from the lineup and the team's only two players averaging in double digits in scoring, but the available remaining players have just 50 assists with a hefty 110 turnovers in nine games. Marist is 0-4 ATS as a double digit underdog this season, losing by an average final score of 64-46, and they have covered just 2 of their last 12 games off a SU loss going back to last season. The lucky team that gets to face the Red Foxes is VMI. The Keydets will attempt to run the depleted opponent off the floor. VMI averages nearly 90 ppg. and will not let-up for a moment in this one. Nine Keydets average more than 12 minutes played per game and Q.J. Peterson's 21 ppg. leads six players averaging over 8 ppg. Peterson and Julian Eleby are also matchup nightmares for Marist's makeshift backcourt on the defensive end, where they have combined for 30 steals on the season. I believe this one is going to get ugly early and with VMI's ability to fill the bucket; they should extend that lead down the stretch. I'm laying the points with VMI my Under the Radar Wipeout.

Gonzaga -4.5 vs UCLA double-dime bet
Analysis: I'm laying the points with Gonzaga on Saturday night. There aren't a lot of big name wins for UCLA so far this season and they lost both of their step-up games, including double digit defeats to North Carolina and Oklahoma. The Bruins are not a deep team with too many minutes going to too few players. They couldn't handle the Heels or the Sooners quickness or talent, finishing with just 15 assists and a whopping 36 turnovers in the two games, combined. I suspect they'll have problems with the best team they'll have faced yet, the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Gonzaga has eight players averaging over 16 minutes of action and their outstanding backcourt should have their way with the Bruins. Led by Kevin Pangos, the Zags have four healthy guards averaging well into double digits in minutes player per game and the four have a combined 107 assists with just 35 turnovers. This is also a spot where the strength of the Bruins, their frontline, will be matched and maybe bettered by Gonzaga's. Przemek Karnowski threw down 22 points last time out and is one of three frontline players to average in double digits in points scored per game, while the three grab between 5.4 and 7.1 rpg. In a nutshell, this year's Bulldogs, arguably Mark Few's best group yet, out-class UCLA, in my opinion. The Bruins enter on a 0-5 ATS slide against teams with a winning record, while Gonzaga is 9-1 ATS on the road against teams that out-score their opponents by an average of 12 or more ppg. over the last three seasons. I'm laying the points with Gonzaga, my Knockout release.