12-13-14

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National Sports Service


5* U.S.C. -6 over Army (NCAAB)


3* Dayton +10 over Arkansas (NCAAB)


3* Army +15 over Navy (NCAAF)

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Dr. Bob


**KENTUCKY (-12 ½) over North Carolina


09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 520
Kentucky beat Kanas by 32 and they beat highly ranked Texas by 12 points despite shooting poorly (8.3% from 3-point range). The Wildcats get another test today from North Carolina but the Tarheels have been relatively better against bad teams and have struggled against good defensive teams, losing to both Butler and Iowa (although they did beat Florida). Kentucky is beating their opponents by an average of 30 points despite playing their games at a slower than average pace. North Carolina is a fast paced team and the Tarheels are not doing themselves any favors by adding possessions to a game against a superior team. Kentucky’s average game rating would be 2.7 points higher if they played their games at the expected pace of this game. My pace adjusted ratings favor Kentucky by 13 points and that doesn’t take into account North Carolina’s relatively worse play against better teams. The Tarheels also apply to negative 33-113-4 ATS road underdog situation that plays against high scoring teams when facing a good defensive team. Kentucky, meanwhile, applies to a 139-69-4 ATS non-conference home favorite revenge situation and I don’t see the Wildcats having any problem getting revenge for last year’s 77-82 loss in Chapel Hill. The injury to Kentucky F Alex Poythress is unfortunate but the Wildcats are the deepest team in the nation and while his shot blocking may be missed a little (there are plenty of good shot blockers on the team) the offense will be better off (38% shooting). I’ll take Kentucky in a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less, for 3-Stars at -12 or less, and for 1-Star at -13 ½ points.


**Opinion – Golden State (-1) over DALLAS


11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 501
Golden State continues to play at a high level, even without big man Andrew Bogut, and my ratings favor the Warriors by 3 points in this game without their starting center. Dallas doesn’t play as well at home as they do on the road and the Warriors have been great on the road, going 11-1 straight up and 9-3 ATS with wins at Portland and Chicago. I’ll lean with Golden State minus the small number.


**BOWLING GREEN (-3 ½) over Cleveland State


01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 540
Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS and the Falcons still appear to be underrated based on the line on this game. The Falcons have played better than Cleveland State has so far this season and using this year’s games only would favor Bowling Green by 5 points. Cleveland State should be a bit better with G Charlie Lee back in the lineup (although they’re just 1-1 in his 2 games), but I would still favor Bowling Green by 4 points and Cleveland State applies to a very negative 16-66-2 ATS non-conference road underdog situation. I’ll take Bowling Green in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.


***Michigan (+12) over ARIZONA


02:15 PM Pacific Rotation: 520
It’s been a tough week for Michigan, who suffered a shocking home loss to NJIT as a 24 point favorite last Saturday and then followed that up with a 42-45 home loss as a 14 ½ point favorite against Eastern Michigan on Wednesday. The good news for us is that those losses have supplied us with line value in favor of the Wolverines, who apply to a very good 211-93-9 ATS situation that plays on double-digit dogs coming off two horrible performances (relative to their normal performance level). Michigan is also 22-5 ATS as an underdog after a loss, so John Beilein’s team has a history of bouncing back from losses. Michigan has beaten Oregon and Syracuse and they lost by just 5 points to a Villanova team that rates higher the Arizona does – so the Wolverines have shown that they’re more than capable of competing with good teams. Michigan’s strength is their 3-point shooting (38.2%) and their weakness is their defense of the 3-point arc (38.0% allowed). That profile matches up well against an Arizona team that is good overall defensively but ranks 201st in the nation in 3-point defense and the Wildcats don’t take a lot of 3-point shots on offense. My ratings, using this year’s games only, favor Arizona by just 9 ½ points, so we have line value to go along with a very strong situation. I’ll take Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +10.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James Jones
NCAAF-Army(+15.5)-110...(2*)
NBA-Indiana Pacers(+5)-110...(2*)
NCAAB-Gonzaga University(-5)-111...(1*)

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Falcon Sports


2.5 units North Carolina +12 (Noon Tip-Off)
2.5 Oregon State -1

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Robert Ferringo
early plays
1* nc +13
1* moorehead +20

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Dave Cokin:

517 Wichita State -12
533 Oklahoma -5
554 VCU -6
574 Nebraska -5
579 Gonzaga -4.5
590 VMI -12

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Mike O' Connor :

I'm adding three Best Bets below and barring any significant line moves that will be it for this week.

I'm adding:
(319)**Washington +7 (-120)
(329)**San Francisco +10 (-115)
(331)**Dallas +3.5 (-125)

Previously sent:
(305)***Oakland +10.5 (-115)

Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***Oakland (+10.5 -115) 20 KANSAS CITY 21

Sun Dec-14-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 305 Over/Under 41.5

With three straight losses the Chiefs find themselves on the outside looking in at the playoffs and will likely need to win out for a wild-card spot. It won’t be easy getting the first of those wins against a Raiders team that began the Chiefs three game slide with a 24-20 victory in Oakland a few weeks ago. The Raiders have improved recently, winning two of their last three and last week beat the 49ers 24-13 in a game that they dominated (330 total yards at 5.5 yppl to 248 yards at 4.4 yppl for the 49ers). Quarterback Derek Carr has improved and a running game led by running back Latavius Murray has shown some explosiveness recently (265 rushing yards at 6.5 ypr). This is a rivalry game and the Raiders know that they can beat Kansas City so I expect a strong performance against a limited Chiefs team that has trouble stopping the run (136 yards allowed at 5.0 ypr against teams that gain 109 yards at 4.3 ypr) and has no downfield passing attack to speak of (averaging 191 passing yards at 5.8 yps against teams that allow 229 yards at 6.1 yps). This is too many points to give as my model predicts a 8.2 point Kansas City win and the Raiders qualify in a 500-414-16 turnover based situation as well as a 404-338-13 divisional match up spot. I’ll take Oakland +10.5 (-115) for 3-stars down to +10 and for 2-stars down to +8.5.
**Washington (+7 -120) 26 NY GIANTS 24

Sun Dec-14-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 319 Over/Under 47.0

From a yppl perspective the Redskins actually look like a just below average team as they have gained 357 total yards at 5.7 yppl against teams that allow 354 yards at 5.6 yppl on offense while allowing 343 yards at 5.8 yppl to teams that gain 343 yards at 5.5 yppl defensively. Their problems have stemmed from their terrible third down offense (#30) and their below average third down defense (9th worst). Meanwhile, the Giants have been just the opposite with adjusted yppl stats that are well below average - gaining 348 total yards at 5.2 yppl against teams that allow 352 yards at 5.6 yppl on offense while allowing 371 yards at 6.1 yppl to teams that gain 357 yards at 5.7 yppl defensively. However, they have been very good in their third down offense (#8) and their third down defense (6th best). I’m banking on some regression to the mean in this game in those categories and that has me leaning the Redskins way. Washington also qualifies in a 13-1-2 situation that plays on certain teams off of a shutout loss while benefitting from a negative 111-199-8 situation that plays against the Giants. My model likes the Redskins in this game quite a bit as well (-.4 points) and with these teams off divergent results (the Giants with a 36-7 win versus Tennessee and the Redskins off the 0-24 shutout) I’ll take the clearly contrarian route in this one and take the Redskins +7 -120 for 2-stars down to +6.
**San Francisco (+10 -115) 17 SEATTLE 18

Sun Dec-14-2014 at 01:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 329 Over/Under 38.0

The 49ers playoff hopes took a hit last week in their 13-24 loss to the Raiders in Oakland and now at 7-6 are projected to be the 8th seed and in desperate need of a win in this game. They were somewhat understandably flat last week against non-conference Oakland as a big favorite and in between games against dreaded division rival Seattle. They are now clearly in red alert mode and Harbaugh has historically been good in these sorts of spots with a 4-1 SU and ATS record as an away dog of greater than 4 points. Harbaugh is also 4-0 SU and ATS in games off two consecutive losses, including wins over the Eagles and Saints earlier this season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been playing well but may be a bit overconfident in this game. They are coming off of consecutive dominant defensive performances against the Eagles and the 49ers and have a primetime matchup with the division leading Cardinals in Arizona on Sunday night next week. This is another classic buy low and sell high opportunity as everyone is sky high on Seattle while having given up on the 49ers. I expect an excellent effort from San Francisco and 10 points is just too much to pass up in this spot in what my numbers project will be another low scoring game. San Francisco qualifies in a good 117-65-6 bounce back trend as well as a 500-413-16 turnover based situation and with a good spot and I’ll take the 49ers +10 -115 for 2-stars down to +8.5.
**Dallas (+3.5 -125) 30 PHILADELPHIA 26

Sun Dec-14-2014 at 05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 331 Over/Under 55.0



In a game for the lead in the NFC East, the Cowboys travel to face a Philadelphia team that dismantled them in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day but that loss may have served the Cowboys well in this game. Looking for revenge after being dominated along both lines, the Cowboys have had a chance to see Chip Kelly’s offense up close and should be better prepared to attack Mark Sanchez and exploit his weaknesses. They also have seen how the Eagles defense wants to attack their offense and should benefit from making some adjustments. Last week against the Seahawks, Philly was dominated on both lines as Seattle rolled up a 442 yard at 5.3 yppl to 139 yard at 3.1 yppl advantage. Seattle controlled the game and ran 85 plays, 40 more than the Eagles’ 45. The Philly defense could be a bit fatigued after a physical game and will be facing a motivated Dallas offensive line that will look to pound Philly with a rushing attack that averages 150 yards at 5.0 ypr. In addition, the Cowboys are well rested having played last Thursday night in an easy 41-28 win in Chicago.

While Sanchez has been mediocre since taking over for Nick Foles, Romo has been having another very good season and despite his back injury is currently rated #3 in Total QBR. He had a bad game against the Eagles last time out and I expect a much better performance from him this time around. In that game he decided not to take a painkilling shot and he was clearly not himself. He bounced back with a strong effort (80.7% completion rate and 7.5 yps with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions) last week and I expect another solid outing from him this week.

The Cowboys qualify in a good 141-68-7 statistical match up situation and my model only favors the Eagles by 1.3 points. Dallas has played well on the road this season (6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS) and with situation, value and a revenge spot all lining up on the Cowboys, I’ll take Dallas +3.5 -125 for 2-stars down to +3 -120.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo
1-Unit Play. Take #519 North Carolina (+13) over Kentucky (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #525 St. Mary's (+6.5) over Creighton (2 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


2-Unit Play. Take #536 Kansas (-3) over Utah (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #543 Western Kentucky (+11) over Mississippi (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


3-Unit Play. Take #547 Michigan (+12.5) over Arizona (5 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


7-Unit Play. Take #549 Oklahoma State (-1) over Memphis (6 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


When last we saw the Cowboys they were getting bombed on the road against South Carolina. That was a week ago, so they've had all that time to stew. That game was somewhat understandable. The Cowboys were playing their first true road game of the season. They had to fly across country and they were making a noon local (10 a.m. CST) tip. And they were doing it against a better-than-people think South Carolina team. It was the perfect storm and they got run out of the gym. But I think they will be much better today against a sagging Memphis team. College hoops is all about guard play. And it isn't even close between these two teams. Oklahoma State has two veteran point guards, Anthony Hickey (an LSU transfer) and Phil Forte (a deadly shooter). Memphis has no one. They have four new guards trying to replace the absolute studs that they were working with last year. It's not going well. They are one of the least experienced teams in the nation and they have been awful offensively. Memphis' strength is on the interior with Shaq Goodwin and Austin Nichols. I think the Cowboys are at least competent enough on the block to hold their own on the inside. And that's when it comes back to the guards. And I will take Forte, Hickey, and wing LeBryan Nash over anyone that Memphis has on the perimeter. It is early in the season. Both teams lost a lot from last year. The books and the public still don't know what to make of these teams. But I think I do. OSU isn't a great team. But they are better than Memphis. Home court will keep this one close. But it isn't enough to give the Tigers the win. I will take the better team here and look for a six-point win.


1-Unit Play. Take #552 Illinois (-6) over Oregon (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


2-Unt Play. Take #554 VCU (-6.5) over Northern Iowa (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #575 Purdue (-2) over Vanderbilt (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #579 Gonzaga (-5.5) over UCLA (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #584 Santa Clara (-4) over Washington State (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


2-Unit Play. Take #585 UT-Arlington (+12.5) over UC-Irvine (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #587 Morehead State (+20) over Ohio State (1 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #596 Massachusetts (-10.5) over Canisius (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #600 Colorado (-12.5) over Northern Colorado (6 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


3-Unit Play. Take #602 Stanford (-14) over Denver (6 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #606 Davidson (-17) over Niagara (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 130


1-Unit Play. Take #614 Evansville (-7.5) over Murray State (2 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


2-Unit Play. Take #617 UNLV (-2.5) over South Dakota (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #621 BYU (-9.5) over Weber State (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)


2-Unit Play. Take #624 Northern Arizona (-4.5) over Loyola-Marymount (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 13)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA

4* Neb CBB

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Doc Sports CBB
All 4*
#529 Take St. Bonaventure +8.5 over Pittsburgh (2 pm ESPN U)


#536 Take Kansas -3.5 over Utah (3:15 pm ESPN)


#547 Take Michigan +12 over Arizona (5:15 pm ESPN)


#549 Take Oklahoma State -1 over Memphis (6 pm ESPN 2)


#574 Take Nebraska -4.5 over Cincinnati (9 pm BTN)


#602 Take Stanford -14 over Denver (6 pm PAC-12 Network)


#617 Take UNLV -2.5 over South Dakota (8 pm ESPN 3)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

tkwins full card:
3units unc+12.5, memphis grizz-10,
4unit LAC o208

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Power Play Wins

POD

NCAAB: Kansas -4

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PAUL LEINER

100* Pistons / Kings – Over 196

100* Army +15.5

100* Ohio State -19.5

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Teddy Covers | CBB Sides

dime bet – 549 Oklahoma St. -1.0 (-110) vs 550 Memphis
Analysis: 1* Take Oklahoma State (#549).

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8 Unit Side Play · [553] Northern Iowa Panthers
Action Jackson Sat Dec 13th, 2014 7:00pm EST
Expert Analysis: Northern Iowa has been playing great team ball this season. Line currently 7 to 8 looks too high to ignore points. Play the team with the best defense: Panthers plus 6 or more.