12-21-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WAYNE ROOT

MIIILIONAIRES------ST LOUIS
NO LIMIT CLUB-----TAMPA BAY

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PERFECT PLAY

Arizona will still need to fend off the Seahawks if they want to capture their division title. Fortunately for them, they will be playing their game against Seattle on their own home turf. Laying points on the road against a team with a great defense is not an easy task for any team and certainly not for a team built like the Seahawks. Though they have been through a string of injuries, Arizona has found ways to win. Look for emotions and inspiration to take this game to the next level by this Cardinal team. The game will not be Ryan Lindley's to win or lose. It will be inspired by the defense and creating TO's....AND the Points! TAKE ARIZONA

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INNER CIRCLE---CHICAGO

The Bears have talent. Yet it is another lost season for the Bears, after they were blown out at home by the Saints. The Bears have a lot of nice pieces, but something is not working. Whether it is Jay Cutler's inconsistency and sassiness, the head coach's inexperience or high paid players throwing in the towel. But this Sunday, they want to beat the Detroit Lions at home where they have had zero success this season. Benching Cutler is a financial move for the off season so they do not want him injured. But the bears have some pride and they do not like Jay so this is their chance to play with added enthusiasm. TAKE CHICAGO

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Pinnacle---OAKLAND......NFL UNDERDOG SHOCKER OF YEAR


Buffalo will have to win their last two games and hope to get help from a couple of teams that are currently ahead of them in the AFC standings. The Bills come into this contest winners of three of their last four overall. The problem with that is they'll be more worried about other teams creating a path for them to the playoffs and forget about the focus on the field but on the scoreboard. And their slim playoff hopes may be finished by the time this late game is played which is a more realistic situation. They had their game of the year last week as they closed their home stand for the season with a huge win over the Packers. Look for them to come out flat. Tony Sporano has his team playing more competitive football and as a result the Raiders have won two of their last four. Rookie QB Derek Carr has been a nice addition and somebody the team hopes to build around in the future. Carr, a second round draft pick, has passed for 2900 yards and 18 touchdowns in the season. The Raiders also hit on first round pick, Khalil Mack, who might just be one of the best defensive players in football in his rookie season. The Bills are not a team that can lay points on the road. TAKE OAKLAND

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Lenny stevens:

20- chic, indy,
10- oak, kc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pick city:

4- pitt, sea,
3- balt, det,
2- indy, indy over, sea under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS RUNNER

KC +3 $500.00
ATL+6 $500.00
NY Jets+10 $500.00

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big money:

Atl

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Pure lock:

G bay

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Game of the Month 125-BUFFALO -6.5

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SportsLocksmith

NCAAB:
Quinnipiac -2 -110 1* (1:00 Eastern)



NBA:
Boston +1.5 -110 2* (6:00 Eastern)

Minnesota +3 -110 2* (7:00 Eastern)



NFL:
St. Louis -6 -110 2* (4:05 Eastern)
Chairman's Play:
Kansas City +3 -125 6* (Buying from 2.5 to 3) (1:00 Eastern) (Game of the Month)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointwise Phones

3* Under in Buffalo
3* Oakland
3* Seattle
2* Atlanta
2* Baltimore
2* Under in Miami/Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog-Picks

NFL: 15
Game: Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins
Time: Sunday 12/21 1:00 PM Eastern
Pick: 1.5 units on Minnesota +7 (-120) at bovada (risk 1.5 to win 1.25)

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Minnesota is still playing hard for their first-year, no-nonsense coach and playing better of late (3-0 ATS in their last three). They gave the first-place Lions all they could handle on the road last week in a 16-14 Detroit victory. Minnesota had the edge in yards 360-233 and held Detroit to 2-of-11 on third down. The Vikings are 4-0 ATS after a defeat and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December. They are a big dog to a Miami squad that is at a low point, dropping to third in the division after going 1-3 SU/ATS the last four games. The defense has given up 39, 28 and 41 points in the losses, and the only win was 16-13 over the punchless New York Jets. And, the Vikings have feasted this year vs. struggling pass defenses going 8-2 ATS vs. teams allwoing 61%+ completions. Miami's offense has been below average all season at #20 in passing and #14 in rushing. The Dolphins have been outscored 69-26 in the last two weeks. Miami has forced only five turnovers in six games and recorded six sacks in the last five. Miami's last five opponents have converted 51.5% (35 of 68) of their third-down chances. The Dolphins are 15-35-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record and 0-5 ATS in December. Take the generous points the Minnesota Vikings.

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Game: Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Time: Sunday 12/21 1:00 PM Eastern
Pick: 1 unit on Game Total OVER 48.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (risk 1.0 to win 0.91)

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Green Bay and QB Aaron Rodgers got shut down in frigid Buffalo last week. Think that will happen in sunny Tampa Bay? Not against a Buccaneers' defense that is #24 against the pass and #19 against the run, and #25 in points allowed (26.2 points per game). Rodgers will be motivated to atone for his worst ever outing as an NFL QB. Green Bay which is 8-3 to the OVER in their past eleven games is 4-0 OVER the total after a defeat and 7-1 OVER against the NFC. The Packers have a potent, balanced attack behind QB Rodgers (35 TDs, 5 INTs) ranked #8 in passing and #11 in rushing. The OVER is 12-5 in the Packers' last 17 road games. Tampa Bay will get behind early and have to throw all day long, which increases the chances of a high-scoring game, and they do have excellent wide receivers. Green Bay's defense is not stellar at #15 against the pass and #26 against the run. On the season, they are allowing 26 points per game on the road. The Bucs are giving up 26.2 per game and when they have faced a team with a winning record they are 5-2 OVER the total. This season, the Pack are 7-1 OVER when they face a bad defense like Tampa's (teams allowing 350+ yards per game). This one has all the makings of an offensive show. Play OVER the Total.

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Game: Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Time: Sunday 12/21 1:00 PM Eastern
Pick: 1 unit on Chicago +9.5 (-110) at Sportsbook.com (risk 1.0 to win 0.91)
Pick: 1 unit on Game Total OVER 44 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.0 to win 0.95)

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This is the toughest play this weekend, I know. Everything points to the Lions. But wait a second. A division rival is coming to town and Detroit is just 3-3 on the road. Should they really be laying over a touchdown here? The Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the road and 10-22-1 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record. The Lions just played three straight home games and now head out on the road where they are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS their last three road contests. Historically teams going on the road after three straigh at home really struggle to live up to expectations. Detroit plays indoors and the Lions are 1-5 ATS in December and 0-5 ATS on grass. Think the benching of Cutler here is a bad thing? Consider that he has 24 turnovers this season (ridiculous 1.7 per game) and is 45-72-2 ATS in his career NFL starts. Getting him out of the lineup is a good thing. The Detroit defense isn't as sharp away from home, resulting in a 7-1 mark OVER the total on the road against a team with a losing home record, plus they're 21-7-2 OVER the total after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Chicago is home and in a great situational spot, playing its third consecutive home game. Detroit's one weak spot is the secondary at #14 against the pass, and the Bears have a lot of talent in the passing game. Coach Mark Trestman did wonders with backup QB McCown a year ago (13 TDs, 1 pick) and now he gets to try it again with QB Jimmy Clausen. Chicago's defense is a weak spot and the Bears are on a 22-10 run OVER the total, as well as 9-4 OVER against the NFC. The home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings between these division rivals. And the Lions are one of the worst favorites in the NFL having gone 53-77 ATS in that role and 26-46 as a favorite in this range (-3.5 to -9.5). I look for the Bears to show some pride here at home vs. a division rival and get a little boost from the change at QB. Take the points on Chicago and play the OVER.

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Game: Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Time: Sunday 12/21 1:00 PM Eastern
Pick: 1 unit on Atlanta +6.5 (-108) at BetOnline (risk 1.0 to win 0.93)
Pick: 1 unit on Game Total UNDER 56 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.0 to win 0.95)

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At 5-9, the Falcons are somehow still in the hunt for a playoffs spot. The NFC South has been ultra soft this season, with no team stepping forward to take charge. The Falcons have been somewhat better lately after their 2-6 start and the defense, which is still pretty mediocre, has elevated its status over the last seven games. They did give up 43 points to Green Bay, but held the Pack to 12 second half points and almost came back to win. They have given up 27 or less in the other six - a vast improvement from giving up 28 or more in five of their first seven. New Orleans has not been the same lethal offense we have seen over the last several years as they have been slowly declining each year. Their 30-point regular season games per season have gone from 10, 8, 6, 4 and 3 this year with two games left. And, last week it got to 31 because the Bears went for it on their own 23 near the end of the game and the Saints punched it in on a short field. There is a lot at stake here, which usually means the defenses make some plays. The Falcons come into this game at 43-19-3 ATS in their last 65 after holding an opponent to less than 90 yards rushing. Atlanta has been the best of the bad teams in the NFC South, where they have a clean slate at 4-0. The Saints have lost their home mystique and magic, losing four straight here, and the points aren't coming as easy as they once did. Since 1992, New Orleans is 26-46-2 ATS at home vs. losing teams including 10-16 in the Drew Brees era. Under Mike Smith, Atlanta is at their best following a loss, going 27-15 ATS after a setback. Under Smith this team is also 18-6 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 8-0 UNDER following back to back 400+ yard games. This is a lot of points in a meaningful division game. Play on Atlanta and the UNDER in this one.

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Game: New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Time: Sunday 12/21 1:00 PM Eastern
Pick: 1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 (-115) at bovada (risk 1.5 to win 1.30)

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The Patriots have enjoyed as much success as anyone in recent years. But, they have had a lot of nightmares at MetLife, as they have dropped three of the last four meetings in New Jersey as a favorite. Three of the last four New England wins have come by 3 points or less as the Pats offense hasn't lived up to expectations. New England has scored fewer than 20 points in a game just 23 times since the start of the 2008 season, covering 119 games, but have failed to do so here in three of their last six trips to the Big Apple. I think the total is over-done in this one because this has been a tough out for the Pats for several years running. It seems the Jets, good or bad, save their best "A" game for the Patriots. The good news for New England is that their defense is playing very well, sepecially in games on turf this season where they have given up just 16.2 points per game. With New York's offense, I expect even less than that. The Jets have played to a 5-0 mark to the UNDER in their last five vs. the AFC. New York plays them tough, so take the UNDER.

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Game: Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Time: Sunday 12/21 1:00 PM Eastern
Pick: 1 unit on Kansas City +135 (moneyline) at Bookmaker (risk 1.0 to win 1.35)
Pick: 1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (risk 1.5 to win 1.36)

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The Pittsburgh Steelers have gotten another big year out of QB Ben Roethlisberger who has already thrown for more yards than any season in his career with two games still remaining. That will be put to the test in this one vs. the Kansas City Chiefs who have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, allowing just 5.7 yards per attempt on the season to a schedule of teams that average 6.5. The Chiefs have a solid running game, so they will be putting the ball on the ground a lot to shorten the game, which keeps their defenders fresh and Big Ben and Antonio Brown off the field. The Steelers may decide to run it more themselves to try and loosen things up as the Chiefs are not nearly as good against a ground attack as they have been vs. quarerbacks. Overall, I think this becomes more of a ground war. If KC can seduce the Steelers into one, it is a game they can surely win by keeping the clock running and producing more on the ground, which is their game. That has been the plan with Alex Smith at QB who is 23-15 to the UNDER in his 38 career road starts, which includes 14-6 to the UNDER as a road dog. Alex Smith has produced an average score of 22.0-19.8 in all his road starts, which have had favorable results straight-up, and low-scoring as a whole. Since Mike Tomlin took over here, the Steelers are 8-1 UNDER after back-to-back-to-back 25+ point games and a perfect 6-0 UNDER in the final two weeks of the regular season. The Steelers have faced four good rushing teams this season (teams that average 4.5+ yards per carry) and they are 0-4 straight-up in those games. In his coaching career, Andy Reid has made a name for himself in pulling upsets when the line is short. In games where his team is a road dog of +230 or less, Reid is 31-25 straight-up. And he's 23-11 in all road games in December in his career. Take Kansas City on the moneyline and play the UNDER in this one.

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Game: Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Time: Sunday 12/21 1:00 PM Eastern
Pick: 1.5 units on Houston +6 (-110) at Sportsbook.com (risk 1.5 to win 1.36)
Pick: 1 unit on Game Total OVER 41.5 (-105) at BetPhoenix (risk 1.0 to win 0.95)

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This is a low total for a Baltimore team with a strong, balanced offense. Baltimore is 4-1 OVER the total on the road and this game is indoors. For over a decade, Baltimore has been a much better team at home than on the road and the same is true in 2014 with a better home mark. The Ravens are 3-9-1 ATS against the AFC and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games in December. They are a road favorite against a Houston team that has outscored its opponents by +47. Every other team in the NFL with that ratio or higher has a winning record! That's even better than the 10-4 Lions or 11-3 Cardinals. Houston is on a 3-1-1 ATS run and 6-2 ATS after a loss, with the fourth-best ground attack in the NFL. Houston's All-Pro DE J.J. Watt continues to terrorize opposing quarterbacks with seven sacks in the last three games, giving him 16 1/2 on the season to rank third in the league. This line is an over-reaction to the change at QB for Houston. Case Keenum started eight games for Houston last season and was decent. He won't be that big of a dropoff from Fitzpatrick and the line here doesn't reflect that. In addition, Houston is 4-1 OVER the total after a defeat and 26-10 to the OVER in their last 36 as a home dog. When these teams meet, the OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Houston. Play the points on Houston and take the OVER.

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Game: New York Giants @ St. Louis Rams
Time: Sunday 12/21 4:05 PM Eastern
Pick: 1.5 units on New York +6.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (risk 1.5 to win 1.36)

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The St. Louis Rams were the talk of the NFL world 10 days ago as a young team with a ton of talent was off back-to-back wins of 76-0. The betting public was all over them against Arizona, but a funny thing happened. They not only failed to cover, they couldn't even win, losing 12-6 at home. St. Louis is still a last place team with a losing record. The problems run even deeper with an offense ranked #26 in the NFL in passing and #21 in rushing. The Rams have been hurt by injuries on their offensive line. Tackle Jake Long is out for the year with a knee injury. Left guard Rodger Saffold is at less than full strength with a nagging shoulder injury that will require offseason surgery. Injury-prone center Scott Wells is wearing a brace covering his left arm while right guard Davin Joseph is a journeyman. The line problems will be an issue against a resurgent Giants' pass rush that has produced 22 sacks in the last three weeks for a total of 41 - fourth-best in the NFL. The Rams are 4-9 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. The Giants' offense is #13 in the NFL in passing with an outstanding duo of QB Eli Manning and rookie WR Odell Beckham. Beckham caught 12 passes for 143 yards from Manning last Sunday with his first three-touchdown effort in a 24-13 home win over Washington. The Giants are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 6-0 ATS against the Rams. The Giants have outscored their last three opponents by an average of 28-15. Under Tom Coughlin, New York is 30-16 ATS off a home win and 19-5 ATS on the road following back-to-back ATS wins. Play on the NY Giants.

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Game: Buffalo Bills @ Oakland Raiders
Time: Sunday 12/21 4:25 PM Eastern
Pick: 1 unit on Oakland +7 (-110) at Sportsbook.com (risk 1.0 to win 0.91)

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Last place Oakland is 2-2 straight-up the last four games, and are playing hard for likable players-coach Tony Sporano. They are 2-0 SU/ATS their last two home games and this is the home finale for 2014. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a loss as the lines get shaded on this disliked team. They face a Buffalo team that is just 3-3 on the road and 3,000 miles from home while crossing three time zones. Buffalo is a big road favorite, but is not a great offensive team at #19 in passing and #24 in rushing. They have been poor the last two road games, losing 24-17 at Denver and 22-9 at Miami. They come off an emotional win at home over Green Bay 21-13, but the Bills are 3-10 ATS after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game. Even in the win, QB Kyle Orton was just 14-of-27 for 158 yards and an INT while being sacked three times. Buffalo continues to be vulnerable on the ground, giving up 5.0 yards per carry and 10 TDs over their last eight. Buffalo has lost nine of 10 on the road against the Raiders since its last victory in Oakland on Nov. 24, 1966. The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings vs. Oakland, so look for an inspired effort by the home team. Take the Raiders.

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Game: Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys
Time: Sunday 12/21 4:25 PM Eastern
Pick: 1 unit on Indianapolis +3.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (risk 1.0 to win 0.91)

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Dallas won a big game last week on the road at Philadelphia to take over the division lead, but it came with a huge price. DeMarco Murray suffered a broken hand and will need surgery. The Cowboys are trying to find a way to have him in the game, but how effective he can be remains to be seen, if he can even play. Murray has rushed for 1,687 yards on the season and he is one reason why Tony Romo has been effective as Dallas has finally established a running game, but that may not be the case Sunday vs. the 10-4 Colts. This has been a historically bad time of year for Dallas who is now 3-19-1 ATS from week 13 out as a non-division favorite, which includes 0-11 ATS off a win. Many forget Indianapolis is 10-2 in their last 12 games and even though they got the win last week 17-10, it was their lowest scoring offensive game of the season. That may sound like a bad thing, but since Andrew Luck has been around, the Colts offense does not stay down long as they are 13-0 ATS following a game where they scored less than 21 points since Luck took over. Dallas is 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite. Make the play on Indianapolis.

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Game: Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Time: Sunday 12/21 8:30 PM Eastern
Pick: 1 unit on Arizona +9 (-115) at Sportsbook.com (risk 1.0 to win 0.87)

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Whoa an 11-3 team is a home underdog of more than a touchdown. What?!? After a lackluster 3-3 start to the season, the Seattle Seahawks have come to life, at least on the defensive side of the ball. They have allowed just 27 points in their last four games. That in and of itself will have a lot of bettors on Seattle in this game. But as good as those numbers sound, there have been six teams over the last 25 years in the NFL that held opponents to less than 34 points over their last four games and they proceeded to go 1-5 ATS if they were a road favorite against a winning team. The reason? Overreaction and line value. Sure, Seattle is the better team here, but this is too many points for an 11-3 team to be receiving at home. Seattle has also scored 24 or less points in their last five games which makes it hard to cover such a large number here, especially on the road vs. one the NFLs best defenses. If the above history pans out and Seattle scores 20 or fewer points, teams as road favorites of more than 7 in that situation are 10-80 ATS! The Cards are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a home dog of more than 7.5. From week 14 on, there have been just 65 home dogs of a touchdown or more. The home dogs in those games are 42-20-3 against the number. Make the play on Arizona.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Higgs

5* Cleveland State
5* Georgia State

5* Packers
4* Chiefs
4* Dolphins

4* Dallas
4* Oakland

8* Seattle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Leiner 2000 saints/falcons OVER

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EXECUTIVE NFL

450 -saints
400 - kc
150 - dallas
100 - giants
100 - oakland

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SKY BLUE PICKS.....Green Bay-11.....Oakland+7

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Goodfella

3* dallas