12-27-14

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Tony Wright

5 Nebraska
5 Duke

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Leiner 2000 USC 500 BC

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NESS LEGEND

S. Carolina

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DR.BOB

Celtics

IUPUI
Chicago Bulls

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By Mike O'Connor

I'm adding 2-stars on the 49ers -6.5 and 2-stars on the Redskins +5.5 to go along with the play that I sent on Wednesday on the Chiefs (see below). That's it for this week unless there is a line move or I uncover some other significant information. I'll send a final update early on Sunday AM.

Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***KANSAS CITY (-2.5 -120) 29 San Diego 17

Sun Dec-28-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 320 Over/Under 42.5

The Chargers were lucky to win last week against a 49ers team that played inspired football early in building a 28-7 second quarter lead but then let the Chargers back in the game late in an eventual 38-35 overtime win for the Chargers. Although turnovers were even, the 49ers were -3 in fumbles (three fumbles with all three lost for the 49ers with San Diego fumbling once and recovering it themselves), indicating a bit of luck on the Chargers part. In fact, on the season overall San Diego has only fumbled 14 times (tied for third best) and lost 4 while their opponents have fumbled 21 times and lost 11. From a match-up perspective, the Chiefs good rushing attack (averaging 120 yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 106 yards at 4.2 ypr) face a San Diego rush defense that has allowed 126 yards at 4.7 ypr to teams that gain 112 yards at 4.4 ypr and just allowed the 49ers to rush for 355 yards at 8.9 ypr last week. They won’t be able to stop the Chiefs running game in this one while they likely won’t have a ground game to speak of themselves (averaging 83 yards at 3.5 ypr to teams that allow 104 yards at 4.1 ypr). If an immobile Rivers is put in predicable passing situations he’ll be faced with a strong Chiefs pass rush (tied for 8th in sacks ) and a strong pass defense that is allowing just 200 passing yards at 5.5 ypr against teams that gain 235 yards at 6.3 ypr. Adding the fact that Rivers has been banged up and will be playing with an offensive line that may be on their fifth center and just lost starting right guard Johnnie Troutman has me leaning with the Chiefs. When considering the fact that Kansas City also qualifies in a good 154-96-9 situation that plays on certain teams with worse records late in the season and benefit from a negative 114-199-8 statistical match-up indicator that plays against the Chargers, I can’t pass up Kansas City in this spot. We know that San Diego is in the playoffs with a win but the Chiefs still have a shot (need a win and some help) and will no doubt be playing this game all out. I’ll take Kansas City -2.5 -120 for 3-stars up to -3 -110 and for 2-stars at up to -3 -120.

12/26 UPDATE: With the surprisingly unfortunate news that Alex Smith is now out of this game with a lacerated spleen, I’m estimating an adjustment of 3.5 points. That being said, I don’t recommend the Chiefs at anything less than a PK for 2-stars for those that have not played this game already at the Wednesday release of -2.5 (-120). For those of you that have played already, I recommend staying with our position and I'll be graded at that number. The backup is Chase Daniel and while he hasn’t had a lot of experience in his six seasons, he played well last season in his start in Week 17 against the Chargers (21-30 for 200 yards with 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions) in a 24-27 overtime loss. Kansas City has confidence in him and I expect that the rest of the team will rally for the Chiefs win.
**WASHINGTON (+5.5) 28 Dallas 25

Sun Dec-28-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 324 Over/Under 49.5

The Cowboys have won the NFC East but still have a shot at a first round bye although it’s extremely unlikely while the Redskins are trying to end the season on a winning note. The Redskins beat the Eagles 27-24 last week and would love nothing more than to end their season with consecutive divisional victories. They should have a good chance at doing just that as Dallas could be a bit flat after their 42-7 home win last week against the Colts and their 38-27 win at Philadelphia the week prior. Not to mention the likelihood of having a playoff game next week. Washington actually matches up fairly well with the Cowboys with an offense that rates as just above average facing a Dallas defense that is below average overall and can be exploited, particularly in the passing game (allowing 6.9 yps against teams that gain 6.4 yps). Robert Griffin connected with DeSean Jackson on a couple of deep balls last week (4 for 126 yards) and I suspect we’ll see more of that in this game. In addition, the Redskins have been effective in limiting opponents ground games (allowing 104 yards at 4.0 ypr to teams that gain 114 yards at 4.3 ypr) and could slow down the Cowboys good rush offense. This is too many points to give a divisional rival on the road in what is likely a meaningless game for the favorite and my model only favors the Cowboys by 2.2 points. I’ll take the Redskins +5.5 for 2-stars down to +4.
**SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) 27 Arizona 13

Sun Dec-28-2014 at 01:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 330 Over/Under 36.5

The Cardinals are reeling with the loss of their top two quarterbacks and are now faced with the prospect of playing Ryan Lindley in this game and potentially through the playoffs. Lindley has not been good as since entering the league in 2012 he has 225 pass attempts without scoring a touchdown and has thrown nine interceptions. Last week against the Seahawks he was terrible, passing for 187 yards at 3.8 yps with one interception and taking four sacks. Part of the problem in this game for the Cardinals is that they don’t have much of a run game to lean on (averaging 85 yards at 3.5 ypr against teams that allow 105 yards at 4.2 ypr) while the 49ers are tough defending the run (allowing 4.2 ypr to teams that gain 4.4 ypr on average). While the San Francisco defense isn’t at the same level as the Seahawks, it’s still very good in allowing 317 total yards at 5.2 yppl to teams that average 353 yards at 5.6 yppl and is tied for second in the league with 20 interceptions. I expect that a motivated 49ers team, playing in their final game at home with Jim Harbaugh as coach will play well and will be very difficult to beat. Offensively, Frank Gore and a good 49ers running game that averages 132 yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 109 yards at 4.3 ypr should be able to run the ball on a Cardinals rush defense that has played well at times but overall are just better than average (allowing 4.3 ypr to teams that gain 4.4 ypr). The 49ers get a fumble luck adjustment in this game as they have had poor fortune in regards to fumbles while the Cardinals have been lucky (have only lost 5 of their 16 offensive fumbles while opponents have lost 7 of their 13). The 49ers qualify in good 681-503-40 and 32-5 situations and my model, adjusted for Lindley, favors San Francisco by 9.5 points. I like the spot for the 49ers as they try to send Harbaugh out with a win and with both good situations and line value I’ll take the 49ers -6.5 for 2-stars up to -7.

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Maddux
CBB
10* lou +6

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BETTING AS A BUSINESS

NCAAB 5:00 et

Oakland +16.5 / Maryland 5:00 ET 1.25 Unit
(Play ON Oakland)

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jack jones

20* south Carolina
15* penn st

15* hornets under
20*bulls under

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Rooster CBB:


#543 IUPUI +12
#545 Mercer +15½
#549 S Utah +18
#563 Colorado state -1.5

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Strike Point Sports
4* raptors +5