12-28-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux Sports

Chiefs -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sheep
$ 800 packers -7-120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 17 Added Best Bets - By Mike O'Connor




I'm adding 2-stars on the 49ers -6.5 and 2-stars on the Redskins +5.5 to go along with the play that I sent on Wednesday on the Chiefs (see below). That's it for this week unless there is a line move or I uncover some other significant information. I'll send a final update early on Sunday AM.

Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***KANSAS CITY (-2.5 -120) 29 San Diego 17

Sun Dec-28-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 320 Over/Under 42.5

The Chargers were lucky to win last week against a 49ers team that played inspired football early in building a 28-7 second quarter lead but then let the Chargers back in the game late in an eventual 38-35 overtime win for the Chargers. Although turnovers were even, the 49ers were -3 in fumbles (three fumbles with all three lost for the 49ers with San Diego fumbling once and recovering it themselves), indicating a bit of luck on the Chargers part. In fact, on the season overall San Diego has only fumbled 14 times (tied for third best) and lost 4 while their opponents have fumbled 21 times and lost 11. From a match-up perspective, the Chiefs good rushing attack (averaging 120 yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 106 yards at 4.2 ypr) face a San Diego rush defense that has allowed 126 yards at 4.7 ypr to teams that gain 112 yards at 4.4 ypr and just allowed the 49ers to rush for 355 yards at 8.9 ypr last week. They won’t be able to stop the Chiefs running game in this one while they likely won’t have a ground game to speak of themselves (averaging 83 yards at 3.5 ypr to teams that allow 104 yards at 4.1 ypr). If an immobile Rivers is put in predicable passing situations he’ll be faced with a strong Chiefs pass rush (tied for 8th in sacks ) and a strong pass defense that is allowing just 200 passing yards at 5.5 ypr against teams that gain 235 yards at 6.3 ypr. Adding the fact that Rivers has been banged up and will be playing with an offensive line that may be on their fifth center and just lost starting right guard Johnnie Troutman has me leaning with the Chiefs. When considering the fact that Kansas City also qualifies in a good 154-96-9 situation that plays on certain teams with worse records late in the season and benefit from a negative 114-199-8 statistical match-up indicator that plays against the Chargers, I can’t pass up Kansas City in this spot. We know that San Diego is in the playoffs with a win but the Chiefs still have a shot (need a win and some help) and will no doubt be playing this game all out. I’ll take Kansas City -2.5 -120 for 3-stars up to -3 -110 and for 2-stars at up to -3 -120.

12/26 UPDATE: With the surprisingly unfortunate news that Alex Smith is now out of this game with a lacerated spleen, I’m estimating an adjustment of 3.5 points. That being said, I don’t recommend the Chiefs at anything less than a PK for 2-stars for those that have not played this game already at the Wednesday release of -2.5 (-120). For those of you that have played already, I recommend staying with our position and I'll be graded at that number. The backup is Chase Daniel and while he hasn’t had a lot of experience in his six seasons, he played well last season in his start in Week 17 against the Chargers (21-30 for 200 yards with 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions) in a 24-27 overtime loss. Kansas City has confidence in him and I expect that the rest of the team will rally for the Chiefs win.
**WASHINGTON (+5.5) 28 Dallas 25

Sun Dec-28-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 324 Over/Under 49.5

The Cowboys have won the NFC East but still have a shot at a first round bye although it’s extremely unlikely while the Redskins are trying to end the season on a winning note. The Redskins beat the Eagles 27-24 last week and would love nothing more than to end their season with consecutive divisional victories. They should have a good chance at doing just that as Dallas could be a bit flat after their 42-7 home win last week against the Colts and their 38-27 win at Philadelphia the week prior. Not to mention the likelihood of having a playoff game next week. Washington actually matches up fairly well with the Cowboys with an offense that rates as just above average facing a Dallas defense that is below average overall and can be exploited, particularly in the passing game (allowing 6.9 yps against teams that gain 6.4 yps). Robert Griffin connected with DeSean Jackson on a couple of deep balls last week (4 for 126 yards) and I suspect we’ll see more of that in this game. In addition, the Redskins have been effective in limiting opponents ground games (allowing 104 yards at 4.0 ypr to teams that gain 114 yards at 4.3 ypr) and could slow down the Cowboys good rush offense. This is too many points to give a divisional rival on the road in what is likely a meaningless game for the favorite and my model only favors the Cowboys by 2.2 points. I’ll take the Redskins +5.5 for 2-stars down to +4.
**SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) 27 Arizona 13

Sun Dec-28-2014 at 01:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 330 Over/Under 36.5

The Cardinals are reeling with the loss of their top two quarterbacks and are now faced with the prospect of playing Ryan Lindley in this game and potentially through the playoffs. Lindley has not been good as since entering the league in 2012 he has 225 pass attempts without scoring a touchdown and has thrown nine interceptions. Last week against the Seahawks he was terrible, passing for 187 yards at 3.8 yps with one interception and taking four sacks. Part of the problem in this game for the Cardinals is that they don’t have much of a run game to lean on (averaging 85 yards at 3.5 ypr against teams that allow 105 yards at 4.2 ypr) while the 49ers are tough defending the run (allowing 4.2 ypr to teams that gain 4.4 ypr on average). While the San Francisco defense isn’t at the same level as the Seahawks, it’s still very good in allowing 317 total yards at 5.2 yppl to teams that average 353 yards at 5.6 yppl and is tied for second in the league with 20 interceptions. I expect that a motivated 49ers team, playing in their final game at home with Jim Harbaugh as coach will play well and will be very difficult to beat. Offensively, Frank Gore and a good 49ers running game that averages 132 yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 109 yards at 4.3 ypr should be able to run the ball on a Cardinals rush defense that has played well at times but overall are just better than average (allowing 4.3 ypr to teams that gain 4.4 ypr). The 49ers get a fumble luck adjustment in this game as they have had poor fortune in regards to fumbles while the Cardinals have been lucky (have only lost 5 of their 16 offensive fumbles while opponents have lost 7 of their 13). The 49ers qualify in good 681-503-40 and 32-5 situations and my model, adjusted for Lindley, favors San Francisco by 9.5 points. I like the spot for the 49ers as they try to send Harbaugh out with a win and with both good situations and line value I’ll take the 49ers -6.5 for 2-stars up to -7.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PhillyGodFather

Steelers-3
Packers -7
Tampa Bay +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges NFL

DOUBLE PLAYS: Green Bay -7 1/2 Detroit
Seattle -12 1/2 St. Louis

SINGLE PLAYS:

NY Giants -3 Philly
Baltimore -10 Cleveland
Jacksonville +9 1/2 Houston
Indianapolis -7 Tennessee
Carolina +4 Atlanta
Minnesota -6 1/2 Chicago
Denver -14 Oakland

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

The Bengals (10-4-1 SU) head to Pittsburgh on Sunday night to face a Steelers team that is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a winning SU record. Pittsburgh is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 28
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/24)

Game 301-302: Detroit at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 132.879; Green Bay 143.196
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7 1/2); Under

Game 303-304: Jacksonville at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.369; Houston 132.756
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 10 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+10 1/2); Over

Game 305-306: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 134.320; Pittsburgh 140.294
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 51
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3 1/2); Over

Game 307-308: Indianapolis at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.666; Tennessee 125.039
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.532; Baltimore 134.116
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+10); Over

Game 311-312: Buffalo at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 135.211; New England 146.708
Dunkel Line: New England by 11 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: New England by 5; 44
Dunkel Pick: New England (-5); Under

Game 313-314: NY Jets at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 132.340; Miami 134.627
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Miami by 6; 42
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+6); Over

Game 315-316: Carolina at Atlanta (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 127.447; Atlanta 136.034
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Under

Game 317-318: Chicago at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 121.846; Minnesota 132.623
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 11; 41
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Under

Game 319-320: San Diego at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.997; Kansas City 132.960
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Over

Game 321-322: Philadelphia at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 131.032; NY Giants 132.498
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 52
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over

Game 323-324: Dallas at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 140.021; Washington 126.173
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14; 45
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6); Under

Game 325-326: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.743; Tampa Bay 128.389
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 52
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over

Game 327-328: St. Louis at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 133.176; Seattle 142.991
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 10; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 13; 41
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+13); Under

Game 329-330: Arizona at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 130.972; San Francisco 130.742
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 7; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+7); Over

Game 331-332: Oakland at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.535; Denver 143.159
Dunkel Line: Denver by 17 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 14; 48
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-14); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

3 Unit Play. #315 Take Carolina Panthers +3.5 over Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 12/28 4:25 pm FOX) This looks like a field goal game either way and it would not surprise me to see the Panthers win this game straight up and host a playoff game next week. These games have either been very close lately or Carolina blowouts in recent meetings. In fact, the Panthers have covered four out of the last five meetings. The key number of three is so important in NFL betting, and I think that that number will play a crucial role here and this one has all the makings of a hard-fought, close game on both sides with one team kicking a field goal at the end of the game and claiming the division. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and that is the way to play this game on Sunday as well.

3 Unit Play. #319 Take San Diego +3 over Kansas City (Sunday 12/28 1 pm CBS) The Chiefs sunk their season with last week's loss in Pittsburgh. Although they are not mathematically eliminated, they still need some huge upsets to happen and need to win this game to claim the last wild card spot in the AFC. It aint gonna happen, and all the players know this. This game is not really as important for both teams as the media would have you believe. It is important for the Chargers, however, as if they win they are in. They got in last season in Week 17 as well with a big home win over Kansas City, and we see the same think here on the road. The Chiefs are playing their worst football of the season down the stretch just like last year and they have to be seriously deflated after blowing what looked like a sure playoff spot just a few weeks ago.

5 Unit Play. #322 Take New York Giants -3 over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 12/28 1 pm FOX) I think that the New York Giants have all the motivation here. The players seem to love Tom Coughlin, and they may be fighting for his job here. We think they go all out to win this one and win it big against a team that has been overhyped all season and is playing some of its worst football here down the stretch. The Giants have won three straight and covered in all those games. The Eagles have lost their last three without a single cover. With the extra motivation for playing for their coach and the absolute lack of motivation we have seen from the Eagles here down the stretch we think this line should be over the key NFL number of three and that the Giants are the clear play here.

4 Unit Play. #325 Take New Orleans Saints/Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 46.5 (Sunday 12/28 1 pm FOX) Both of these teams are eliminated from playoff contention and neither cares much about this game. I expect both teams to go through the motions here and for this one to be real low scoring. The Saints have put up a total of 24 points in their last two divisional games, and this team has had such a disappointing season that we expect them to put up a stinker here. This just looks like a team that is ready for a vacation. Tampa Bay has one of the worst offenses in the league and has gone under in 8 of their last 9 games. We don't see them doing anything exceptional here, and this team probably has even less motivation to play well than the Saints since they have a high draft pick coming and want to get the best position.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Eastman

ATL 1st half -3…………..$2000.00 -110
DET +8…………………….$500.00 -105
SD +3……………………….$600.00+103
Mia -5.5……………………..$600.00-108
NYG -3………………………$600.00 -105
PIT -3.5………………………$2000.00 -105 411 play
Ind -7………………………….$600.00 -105
Dal -5.5………………………$600.00 -107
NE -4.5………………………..$400.00 -108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VegasButcher (NFL 60-53 Overall)

Miami Dolphins -6

This is most likely the LAST game of the Rex Ryan era in New York, and though many might expect a strong effort from the Jets, I believe they are due for a big let-down. There has been 3 very strong efforts from the Jets this year, against top-level teams: week 7 @ NE, week 10 vs PIT, and week 16 vs NE. After almost winning @ Foxboro in the first meeting, NY proceeded to get destroyed the Bills 43-23 the following week. Then after defeating the Steelers at home, NY once again got outplayed by Buffalo in their next game, losing 38-3. Now they’re coming off an absolutely huge effort against the Pats, as Ryan was coaching against Belichick for the last (most likely) time as a HC of the Jets. The Jets D never allowed a gain longer than 17 yards in that game, they held Brady to 5.2 PY/A average, and NE averaged 3.7 YPP for the game. Heck, the 231 net yards that the Patriots gained was their lowest output of the season, and this is the offense that ranks 3rd in the league. Let’s not kid ourselves, it’s not like this 21st ranked defense all of a sudden figured out how to shut-down elite offensive opponents. Ryan is excellent at game-planning, and it’s not a secret that he most covets beating his nemesis, Bill Belichick. His players played extremely hard for him last week, but I don’t think that kind of effort will be sustainable…especially on the road. While Jets are overall 21st defensively this year, they actually rank 11th at home with a DVOA of -7.9%, compared to their 30th rank on the road with a DVOA of +15.5%. That’s an absolutely huge variance in levels of performance. NYJ have allowed 23.1 PPG this year at home and 27.4 on the road.

The matchup with the Dolphins will not be easy. Miami ranks 5th offensively at home and 7th defensively. They have the 10th best passD and the Jets will be a bit more limited there as they’ll be without Harvin for the game. In addition, they will be without Mangold who has a high ankle sprain. This is a very significant loss, as Mangold grades out as PFF”s #1 overall center this year. He is also NY’s BEST offensive player, while Harvin graded out as their 2nd best. These are pretty significant losses, especially given the fact that Miami has the 3rd best pass-rush in the league. I expect a lot of pressure on Geno Smith in this one. In addition, I don’t think NY will have as much success running the ball on Miami as they did in the first meeting. In that game, the Jets ran the ball 49 times for 277 yards, enabling them to keep the game close. Well, Mangold is NY’s best run-blocking O-lineman so his absence will be felt there as well. In addition, Miami’s run-D has been improving, as they’ve held NE and MIN to 227 combined rushing yards on 57 carries, or 3.9 RY/A. Expect the Dolphins to make the necessary adjustments, sell out to stop the run, and force one of the very worst QB’s in the league beat them….on the road.

I expect Dolphins to play loose here. They have nothing to play for but they found out this past week that Philbin is returning for another season, so the players know to expect stability going forward. And after playing a brutal schedule (4th toughest), they get to finish up against one of the worst teams in the league. Unlike Miami, the Jets know that Rex Ryan is out of the door after this season. His players gave him a great send-off last week by almost beating the Pats at home, but I believe we’ll see a major let-down out of them here. Heck, Geno Smith is already telling the media that a HC change could be a good thing for all parties involved. Miami was listed as a -6.5 road favorite against the Jets less than a month ago. Now they’re at home, yet the spread is even lower? Value on the Dolphins here and a great situational spot to back them

Baltimore Ravens -9

A Ravens win and a San Diego loss, and Baltimore is in the playoffs. I’ll get to the Chargers game in a bit here, but my point is that the Ravens have plenty to play for in this one. They played a horrendous game last week, the worst game of their season actually. The defense continued to be stout, holding Houston to 3.9 YPP and only 1 TD, as the Texans kept kicking FG after FG after every one of Flacco’s INT’s. Baltimore’s offense was putrid, averaging 3.1 YPP with Flacco recording a QBR of 3.2 for the game. Baltimore ranks 11th offensively on the season, and averaged+16% offensive DVOA (top-8) in the 6 games prior to last week. Their -70% offensive DVOA @ Houston was clearly an anomaly. And I like them to bounce back this week. In the last 3 weeks, here are the number of plays ran by CLE vs their opponent:

IND 76 vs CLE 63

CIN 71 vs CLE 38

CAR 77 vs CLE 46

In the last 3 weeks, Cleveland offense ran 147 plays while their opponents ran 224. That’s a 60% advantage. In the last 2 weeks alone, Cleveland’s opponents ran 64% of all the plays, and the average in the last 3 weeks has been 75 offensive plays by their opponent. To put that in perspective, the league leader this year for # of plays run per game is Philly, and they’re at 70.6. The NFL average is about 63/64. You can see how many more plays per game Cleveland’s opponents have been running compared to league average, and I am betting that this Browns D is absolutely gassed by now. Baltimore bouncing back from their atrocious showing offensively last week isn’t just probable; I believe it’s a near-certainty.

Biggest reason for such a “plays per game” discrepancy is because Cleveland has been absolutely horrible on the offensive end lately. In the last 5 weeks, they are averaging a -43% DVOA on offense, regardless if it’s Hoyer or Manziel behind center. To put that in perspective, the worst offensive DVOA this year belongs to Tampa, and they’re at -30%. Of course this week neither Manziel nor Hoyer will be available. It’s Connor Shaw time, an undrafted rookie out of South Carolina. I didn’t really bother to look up Shaw’s scouting numbers and college football numbers. It’s irrelevant. If he went undrafted, then I trust the talent evaluators in the league with their assessment of the guy (they miss on ‘undrafted’ players sometimes but it’s very rare). Besides, I expect a run-heavy game plan by the Browns, even though Baltimore’s struggles defensively are in their secondary. The problem of course is that Cleveland ranks 28th running the ball, while Baltimore is 4th in run-defense. Even without Ngata the last few weeks, this runD has been stout. In addition, you have the Ravens’ 7th ranked pass-rush to deal with, so even when Shaw drops back to pass, he needs to get the ball out quickly. And getting the ‘ball out quickly’ is not something that is easy for young players to learn – just ask Peyton Manning how long it took him to master it. Baltimore gives up 24.1 PPG on the road, but they are the BEST scoring defense at home, allowing 14.1 PPG. I’d be very surprised if this horrible Cleveland offense can exceed that number. Offensively, I already mentioned that I expect Baltimore to bounce back from their poor performance last week. They’ll be facing Cleveland’s 32nd ranked runD and 30th ranked D-Line against the run. Forsett should be able to gash this front-7, which will only open up the passing game for Flacco and Co. This is for all the marbles, and Baltimore MUST win this game to have a shot at the post-season. They are 4-1 ATS against teams with ‘losing records’ this year and 4-1 ATS when bouncing back off losses this season. I like their chances for a comfortable DD-win here.

Kansas City Chiefs -3

How many ridiculous ‘comebacks’ can Rivers and the Chargers muster up in a season? Besides an early-season comeback against the Raiders, they now have recorded two more in the last 4 weeks. But look at this team’s performance since their BYE-week: won by 7 against OAK at home, won by 3 against STL at home, needed a huge comeback @ BAL to win by 1, lost vs NE, lost vs DEN, needed another huge comeback @ SF to win in OT. Defensively, this team has really struggled on the road, allowing 28.0 PPG on the season and 35.0 PPG in the last 3. While they give up only 16.6 PPG at home and rank 9th with a home defensive DVOA of -9.9%, they rank 32nd in the league on the road with a defensive DVOA of +22%. For perspective, Atlanta’s +14.1% defensive DVOA is the league-worst mark fur the full season. San Diego has performed much worse on the road defensively than even ATL’s D this year. KC has struggled a bit offensively lately but I think they will have a strong showing in this matchup. Last time they faced the Chargers, KC accumulated 365 yards of offense (+114 over San Diego that game) and controlled the ball for 39 minutes. Charles and the run-game weren’t featured much last week, so I would expect the Chiefs to recommit to it against the Chargers. At the same time, I expect a strong game from KC defense. Philip Rivers is banged up, but more importantly he will once again be without Allen and Mathews, two of his most important offensive weapons. Playing behind a makeshift O-line, Rivers could have a tough game in this one. KC ranks 6th in ASR% (adjusted sack rate) and this D only allows 17.0 PPG at home, the 6th lowest mark in the league. In addition, the Chiefs should have a large advantage on Special Teams. Chiefs have some of the best return units (punt and kick-off) in the league while that’s an area San Diego tends to struggle. I know that KC has very slim hopes of making the playoffs (both CLE and JAX need to post upsets) and San Diego is in with a win, but I still expect a strong effort from the Chiefs. They are 5-2 SU/ATS at home and the crowd will be hyped up once again for a divisional game. I know the Chiefs are 1-4 in the last 5 but 3 of those losses came @ ARZ, @ PIT, and vs DEN. Chargers aren’t the same quality of a team and I like KC to end their season with a “W”.

Carolina Panthers +4

One of the most meaningful games of the weekend here as the winner will secure the division and consequently a “winnable” home playoff game -- they’ll most likely host Arizona in the Wild Card round. And in a divisional game, with so much on the line, every single point matters. But backing Panthers with such a ‘strong’ number (over a FG) isn’t as simple as that, though it could be. I think Panthers have a strong shot to win this game.

The first important factor is the health of Cam Newton. Remember, he was dealing with some injuries earlier this year and missed week-15 after being involved in a car accident. Well, last week he rushed 12 times for 63 yards and a TD, and indication to me that he is fully healthy.

The second key factor is the emergence of Jonathan Stewart. Always high on ‘talent’ but low on ‘staying healthy,’ Stewart has put together a very impressive stretch. In his last 4 games, he’s rushed 78 times for 437 yards, or 5.6 RY/A, and has looked pretty explosive doing so. Controlling the game via the run could be Carolina’s strategy here, and they’ll be going up against 28th ranked ATL runD. Stewart only received 7 carries in the first meeting with ATL and I expect him to be fully unleashed in the rematch.

The third key factor is the current play of both defenses. Atlanta is the 32nd ranked defense in the league, and they’ve been even worse in the first 6 games following their week-9 BYE. The 7th game of course was last week’s domination of the Saints, where they’ve held NO to only 14 points and 328 yards of offense, averaging 4.7 YPP. Falcons forced 2 fumbles and registered 2 INT’s of Brees, and it was clearly their best defensive effort of the season. Keep in mind this was Atlanta’s only 2nd ‘negative’ DVOA effort of the season. Usually when a horrid D has a big game one week, you can typically count on them to revert back to their ‘usual’ selves the following. I doubt we’ll see such a strong effort against the Panthers. On the other side, the Panthers’ D is also coming off a strong effort. But I think their effort is much more sustainable. This Panthers’ D had a horrible start to the year, averaging a defensive DVOA of +15% in the first 7 games of the season, which is on par with Atlanta’s +14% season long mark. Since then, Panthers’ D averaged an impressive -13% DVOA, and had a defensive DVOA of -14% of better in 7 of those 8 games. The -13% DVOA would rank 5th in the league if we compared to season-long marks, behind only DET, BUF, DEN, and SEA. Remember, Carolina ranked 3rd defensively last season with a DVOA of -16%, so this mid-season turnaround isn’t really that surprising. The D has adjusted to playing without Hardy and now ranks 13th against the pass, 12th in pressuring the QB, and 10th in ALY (Adjusted Line Yards) allowed by their DLine. These are impressive rankings compared to where the Panthers started out the year (bottom-5 D). Even if Panthers’ offense falters, this Carolina D should be able to keep them in this game.

Finally, I just want to point out that this is a ‘revenge’ game for the Panthers after losing to Atlanta by 2 earlier this year. Divisional rivals tend to adjust for ‘rematches’ and as often is the case, they end up splitting season-series with one another. Carolina is 2-0 ATS this year in such scenarios, and 9-2 ATS over the last few seasons. In addition, Mike Smith is one of the worst head-coaches in the league, as he often mismanages time late, is very timid, and overall coaches more “NOT to lose” than to actually win the game. Ron Rivera, on the other hand, has a “Riverboat Ron” moniker for a reason. He is more decisive and aggressive, and that’s the approach you need to win games in the NFL. We have a ‘revenge’ angle on our side, a better coach, and a defense that seems to be playing at an ‘elite’ level right now. But more importantly, we have over a FG on our side as well. In what will be a ‘playoff’ game pretty much, this many points could very well be the difference in this one. I think Panthers have just as good of a shot as Atlanta to win this game, and getting this many points is a nice bonus to have if this one is close late. Panthers might be my favorite play of the last month or so, and I hope they get the job done.

[golden contender]

GC: NFL Play

Sunday NFC South Play of the Year + Triple Perfect NFL Afternoon Totals And Sunday Night Football up Along with a Perfect NBA System and a NCAAB RPI Super Side. NFL Ranked #1 7 straight weeks and NCAAB Sweeps. Free NFL System play below.



On Sunday the free NFL System Club Play is on Denver. Game 332 at 4:25 eastern. The Broncos will look to get back on track after the Monday night football loss at Cincinnati. They have Oakland coming in and the Raiders are 0-12 ats as a dog off a spread win of 7 or more in their last game and 0-7 as after scoring 25 or more. The Broncos are 14-4 ats vs losing teams and have covered 4 of 5 in division play while averaging 33 points per game at home. The Raiders were blown out at home by Denver and this one wont be any easier. Teams like Denver who lost the Super Bowl that are playing in their last game of the season have covered 8 of 11 times off a loss. Look for Denver to coast in this one to an easy win and cover. On Sunday their are 4 Bog NFL Plays up Including the NFC South Game Of the Year a Triple Perfect Afternoon Totals system, the Sunday Night Football play, an Undefeated NBA Super system and an NCAAB RPI Power angle play. NFL Ranked #1 for a 7th straight week on several leader boards. NCAAB Sweeps and Bowls go 3-1. Jump on now and End the week big with the Most Powerful data in the Industry. For the free play take. Denver. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WAYNE ROOT

Millionaires---Denver
No Limit---Atlanta
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Perfect Play---Detroit

Just about everyone expected the Packers to win the NFC North this season, and while it's still possible, the Lions might be the team to get a bye while the Packers have to slog through a first-round playoff game. No matter who wins on Sunday when the Lions travel to Lambeau, the division is theirs.
Aaron Rodgers might win the MVP this year, and it might come down to his performance on Sunday. Rodgers might win it or lose it when he faces the Lions, but he's still put in the second-best season of his young career. If you had told a Lions fan they'd lose Calvin Johnson for half the season, they'd likely have responded that the team had no hopes of the playoffs. It turns out, however, that Golden Tate might be just as good as the receiver considered the best in the game. Tate has 1286 receiving yards with 4 touchdowns on the year and has been a pivotal component of the Lions' success. The Lions learned how to maintain with offense and win with defense. Speaking of defense, the same game plan Buffalo implemented two weeks ago with their pressure put on Rodgers will be enough to cover the spread. TAKE DETROIT


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Inner Circle---Cincinnati

In week 17 NFL action, the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers will meet at Heinz Field to determine the AFC North Division winner. Both teams have already qualified for the AFC Playoffs. The winner will get the division title and the #3 seed, while the loser will get the wildcard and the #5 seed. The Bengals come into this contest winners of five of their last six and seven of their last nine games overall. Last week, Cincinnati shook their primetime demons in an impressive 37-28 home victory over Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. The Bengals’ defense forced four turnovers in the rain soaked game, including two interceptions in the closing minutes. Through 15 games, Cincinnati ranks 22nd in passing offense, 5th in rushing offense, and 15th in scoring offense at 23.2 points per game. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh feature statistically similar defenses that have been playing better as of late. The Bengals rank 22nd in total defense and allow an average of 19.3 points per contest. The Steelers rank 20th in total defense and allow an average of 23.4 points per contest. The "swag" is back with the Bengals after last weeks win. Winning is about emotions and momentum. Dalton comes up big in a big game. TAKE CINCINNATI


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Pinnacle---Kansas City

As Arizona can attest, losing your starting QB can put a damper on an Arrowhead crowd. But for the visiting team, this is a difficult venue to win. "In and you're in" is one of the great truisms that's part of the magic of the last week of NFL regular season football. It's not always exactly the case, since some teams need help from other franchises, but it makes for excitement and sometimes a regular-season playoff game. We'll see such a game as the San Diego Chargers travel to Kansas City, with whichever team winning having the chance to make the playoffs. Here's how we spell win: Jamaal Charles. Losing Alex Smith is a "deal" but not a big deal. Keep in mind that a Chiefs wide receiver has not caught a touchdown pass this entire season. Defense, rushing and the 12th man are Sunday's formula as the Pinnacle plays stay hot. TAKE KANSAS CITY.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Banker Sports
6 Units Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointwise Phones

3* Giants
3* Packers
3* Seahawks
3* Colts
2* 49ers
2* Panthers
2* Under in Texans/Jaguars

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-9?) 1:00 PM EST
Each week, I isolate an NFL team who will dominate their opposition at the point of attack. We know from statistical research that any team who outrushes their foe by 30 or more yards in a game has an over 70% chance to beat the pointspread. In a similar way, we know that any team who runs the ball 30 times in a game while their opponent does not has an over 80% chance to cover the pointspread. Finally, if one team runs the ball 22 or less times in a game while the other does not, they are an over 80% ATS play against. When the dust clears this afternoon in Baltimore, expect the Ravens to have recorded this double digit victory on the basis of their strong numbers at the point of attack.

It was just four short weeks ago that these two teams were tied in the division in what was then a four team race. But their lack of experience, poor rush defense, and deplorable signal caller play have negatively separated the Browns from the division pack. Baltimore clings to slim hopes of making the playoffs, as they need a victory today combined with a San Diego loss at Kansas City. It sure looks like the Browns have tossed the towel. In losing four straight games, Cleveland has managed only 47 points. With QB Manziel as the starter the last two weeks, the Browns have been outgained 751-335. In last week’s loss at Carolina, Cleveland was outrushed 209-84 and outgained 404-228. QB Manziel injured his hamstring in that contest, allowing former starter QB Hoyer to again take controls. It may not matter who plays QB today, as the Cleveland rush defense is now allowing 141 RYPG.

As stated above, Baltimore playoff hopes rest on this victory with a San Diego loss in the same time frame at Kansas City. Baltimore is in this predicament because of their shocking 25-13 loss last week at Houston, when they were outrushed 123-33. A trio of Baltimore INTs greased the slide for that loss. That performance was uncharacteristic of Baltimore, who entered that game averaging 132/4.6 overland. But the Ravens have played far better on their home field, where their five home wins have come by 20, 28, 22, 14, and 8 points. In addition, Baltimore is 6-0 SU ATS at home following a defeat. With those victories coming by an average of 13 PPG, Baltimore will not take Cleveland lightly. Remember they needed last play magic to win 23-21 at Cleveland earlier in the season

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

Indy -5.5 1st half (20*)
49ers -6.5 (10*)
6pt teaser G.Bay/Washington (10*)