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At 4:35 PM, on Saturday, our AFC Conference Game of the Year is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Baltimore. We played against New England in its last game, and got the $$$, as the Patriots were upset at home by the Bills. But we LOVE playing on the Patriots off a loss, as they're now 12-0 ATS their last 12 when not laying 8+ points off a loss (and 28-3 ATS their last 31)! We did have our Best Bet last week on Baltimore, and were rewarded with an upset win over Pittsburgh. Unfortunately for the Ravens, road teams with a win percentage less than .666, off an upset win, are an awful 13-37 ATS in the Playoffs since 1980 vs. .666 (or better) opponents not off an upset win (including an awful 1-18 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +7.5 points! Finally, New England falls into 32-3, 85-36 and 75-35 ATS systems of mine, provided it's not laying more than 9 points. Take the Patriots.
2 Unit Play. Take UNDER 2 ½ -120 Tottenham at Crystal Palace (12:30p.m., Saturday, January 10) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time, 3-Way bet so if end in a draw we lose)
Many handicappers along with others felt the below .500 Carolina team didn’t “deserve” to be in the playoffs. Worse, some felt the NFC South Champs shouldn’t have home field advantage in a playoff game. Well, after last week’s 27-16 win over the 11-5 Cardinals that talk has subsided and the Seahawks will not take this team lightly. Carolina, at 7-8-1 visits the Super Bowl champion Seahawks on Saturday who have posted a 12-4 mark on the year. The Panthers will have their work cut out for them against a Seattle team who ranks first in rushing, averaging over 172 yards per game. Between a stout running game and a tough defense, the Seahawks may be ready to make a run at the title again. The fact that this is the first game on their title defense has me excited. The 12th man along with a superiorly more talented team will be more than enough to win by a huge number. TAKE SEATTLE
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NO LIMIT---NEW ENGLAND
The road to the AFC Championship game goes through Foxboro and Tom Brady is focused on the past few meetings these two teams have played under the same circumstances. Everyone is going to be talking about Brady and Gronk on Saturday, but one lesser-known player can make a lot of difference: Jamie Collins. Collins leads the Pats in both tackles and interceptions, making him a dangerous player to match up against the free-throwing Joe Flacco. Collins is sure to get the tough duty against Steve Smith and it's a good bet he comes out on top. As for Gronk, the Ravens like rest of league have no answer for Gronk so it really comes down to the fact if Brady can have time to get him the ball. Brady's offensive line will need a concentrated effort to hold off Elvis Dumerville,17 sacks and 28 tackles). Baltimore beat a banged up aging Pittsburgh team, don't read into it too much. Patriots at home are rested and that spells big problems for the struggling secondary for Ravens. Baltimore won't be able to get consistent pressure on Brady and that allows New England to score way too many for Ravens to win or keep it close. TAKE NEW ENGLAND
NHL information
Hot teams -- Boston won last two games, 3-2ot/3-0. Flyers also won last two, after losing previous five.
-- Nashville won four of last five games; four of their last six went OT/SO.
-- Colorado won four of its last five games.
-- Red Wings won five of their last seven games. Washington won three of last four.
-- Arizona won five of its last seven games.
-- Islanders won eight of last twelve games.
-- Canadiens won six of their last seven games.
-- Carolina won three of its last four games.
-- Rangers won four in row, 12 of last 13 games.
Cold teams
-- Minnesota lost nine of its last eleven games.
-- Dallas Stars lost last three games, allowing 12 goals.
-- Senators lost last three games, scoring five goals.
-- Columbus is 4-5 in its last nine games.
-- Penguins lost six of their last eight games.
-- Kings, Jets both lost four of their last five games.
-- Sharks lost five of their last eight games.
-- Canucks are 5-8 in their last thirteen games. Calgary lost last three games, all by one goal.
Series records
-- Flyers lost their last four games with Boston.
-- Minnesota is 5-3 in its last eight games with Nashville.
-- Avalanche won four of last five games with Dallas.
-- Washington won four of last six games with Detroit.
-- Senators are 5-3 in last eight games with Arizona.
-- Islanders lost three of last four games with Columbus.
-- Penguins are 5-3 in last eight games with Montreal.
-- Carolina is 5-3 in its last eight games with St Louis.
-- Kings won their last three games with Winnipeg.
-- Rangers are 4-3 in last seven games with San Jose.
-- Canucks won their last nine games with Calgary.
Totals -- Five of last six Philly home games stayed under.
-- Last six Nashville home games went over total.
-- Four of last five Colorado home games went over.
-- Five of last seven Detroit road games stayed under; last six Detroit-Washington games went over.
-- Four of last five Ottawa road games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Columbus home games went over.
-- Four of last five Penguin road games went over; four of last five Montreal home tilts stayed under.
-- Last six Carolina road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Los Angeles home games went over.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Ranger games.
-- Last four Vancouver home games stayed under total.
Back-to-back
-- Islanders are 4-2 if they played night before; Columbus is 2-6.
-- Calgary is 3-2 if it played the night before.
NFL | BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND
Play On - Home teams (NEW ENGLAND) after scoring 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game
52-22 over the last 10 seasons. ( 70.3% | 27.8 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )
NFL | CAROLINA at SEATTLE
Play On - Any team vs the money line (SEATTLE) a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game
57-14 since 1997. ( 80.3% | 0.0 units )
NFL | BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (BALTIMORE) off a upset win as an underdog
325-205 since 1997. ( 61.3% | 99.5 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% | 0.5 units )
CBB | OHIO U at BOWLING GREEN
Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OHIO U) off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
CBB | COLORADO ST at AIR FORCE
Play Against - A favorite vs. the money line (COLORADO ST) off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season
59-77 over the last 5 seasons. ( 43.4% | 49.8 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.5 units )
CBB | LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT at BYU
Play On - Favorites of 11 or more points vs. the first half line (BYU) after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers
78-38 since 1997. ( 67.2% | 36.2 units )
7-6 this year. ( 53.8% | 0.4 units )
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