1-11-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Hawks won six in row, 20 of last 22 games (7-3 last ten HF). Wizards won last three games, all by 7+ points (2-5-1 AU).
-- Clippers won five of last six games, covered four of last five (4-1 last five HF).
-- Suns won ten of their last thirteen games (5-5-1 AU).
-- Portland won 12 of its last 14 games (3-5-1 AF).

Cold Teams
-- Miami lost eight of its last eleven games (5-9 AU).
-- Memphis lost three of last four games (1-5 last six HF).
-- Kings lost 11 of last 15 games; they're 1-11 vs spread since changing coaches (3-8 HF). Cavaliers lost seven of last eight games (2-3 AU).
-- Lakers lost six of last nine games, are 10-4-1 vs spread in last 15.

Series Records
-- Wizards lost 11 of last 12 games in Atlanta.
-- Clippers lost three of last four games with Miami.
-- Grizzlies won their last five games with Phoenix.
-- Kings won three of last four games with Cleveland.
-- Lakers lost three of last four games with Portland.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Clipper home games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Phoenix road games went over.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Cleveland road games.
-- Last four Laker games stayed under the total.

Back-to-Backs
-- Clippers are 0-3 vs spread at home of they played night before.
-- Portland is 5-2 vs spread if it played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play Sunday CBB Illinois + 2 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo’s number — one

Hondo will get right to his point, which is precisely what he took away from wild-card weekend: one singular winning sensation courtesy of the Colts. What can one say about the loneliest number? It came on one of those weekends that was one for the books (definitely not one for the money) by the one and only Mr. Aitch. One-derful!

Cowboys-Packers: America’s fortunate team has no business being in Green Bay this weekend, and it won’t have America’s officials, referee Pete Morelli and head linesman John Bergman, on hand to save it.

Thus, Green Bay’s Tundra and Lightning Offense — Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy and Jordy Nelson — will send the ’Boys home where they belong, but not by enough to beat the number. Packers 27-24

BTW: If Jerry Jones treats super fanboy Chris Christie to another all-expenses-paid playoff game Sunday, he had better pray the governor doesn’t get so excited he attempts what could be a deadly Lambeau leap into the owner’s arms every time the Cowboys score.

Colts-Broncos: To the tune of Peyton Manning’s new Nationwide Insurance commercial, which has been airing more than “Law & Order” lately. Shoulder sore and thigh hurts, too. Wobbly passes tough to catch. Will not lose to Andrew Luck. T.Y. Hilton drops the ball. Indy has no run attack. ’Nother loss to Pats up next. Broncs’ll win but not cover. Denver 38-34

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

Dallas @ GREEN BAY

GREEN BAY -5½ -105 over Dallas

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST. We’re posting this one today because we like the number at -5½. This number has dropped since it came out and the main reason is the “injury” report on Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers' calf injury has grabbed almost as much headlines this week as the shootings in Paris. Once again, the media has overreacted to an injury that means nothing. Rodgers gave up running the ball long ago and he’s likely to be as sharp this week as he always is. Furthermore, the Cowboys defense was exposed badly last week. Detroit pretty much did whatever it wanted to, which included running the ball. In fact, Detroit gained more yards, had more first downs and ran more plays from scrimmage than the ‘Boys. Detroit’s offense came into last week’s game struggling the entire year and managed to hang almost 400 yards (397) of offense on Dallas. The Packers will exploit all of it.

Dallas figures to put up some points too but they will not keep pace. Green Bay’s defense leaves plenty to be desired but the cold weather conditions are not favorable for Tony Romo. Rodgers has played in extreme cold plenty of times and almost always thrives. Another reason the Cowboys have appeal taking points is their 8-0 record on the road but aside from their win in Seattle, Dallas did not play another road game against a playoff team, nor have they faced a QB on the road like the one they’ll see here. This game is going to be broken down a million ways by Sunday with every “expert” on TV chipping in. That’s nice but it means nothing.

The main reason we’re playing the Packers in this one is because of what transpired last week in Dallas. We all saw the refs hand the game to the Lions in what has to be considered one of the most curious calls in the history of sports. What followed that game was a social-media avalanche with the NFL being accused of “fixing” games. There were photographs of Jerry Jones’ son partying with the head of officials. There were screams of foul play that lasted well past Sunday and into Wednesday before it started dying off. The NFL was and still is under heavy scrutiny and there is no way that Roger Goddell has ignored this. What you will witness this week at Lambeau Field is the complete opposite of what happened last week. Dallas will get few calls, if any. They will get flagged numerous times on even the smallest of infractions that otherwise may have been “let go”. Goddell or his officials will not be accused of favoritism this week. Goddell will do everything in his power to alleviate the perceived bias towards the Cowboys and when Roger Goddell wants something, he gets it. This week, the refs will be heavily biased against Dallas to compensate for last week's debacle and that’s the reason we’re spotting the points.

Recommendation: There is a possibility that this number will drop to -5 but we’re not sure about that and 5 is a dead number anyway. There is also a possibility of hitting -6 and because we much prefer to be under 6, the recommendation is to play it now if you’re playing the favorite.

Our Pick

GREEN BAY -5½ -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

NFL | INDIANAPOLIS at DENVER
Play Over – Home teams against the total after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game
49-22 over the last 10 seasons. ( 69.0% | 24.8 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )

NFL | INDIANAPOLIS at DENVER
Play Against – Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) excellent offensive team – scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less last game
135-126 since 1997. ( 51.7% | 0.0 units )
7-3 this year. ( 70.0% | 0.0 units )

NFL | DALLAS at GREEN BAY
Play Against – Underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (DALLAS) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games
98-51 since 1997. ( 65.8% | 41.9 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

CBB | SMU at UCF
Play On – Road favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (SMU) good defensive team – allowing <=64 points/game on the season, after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game
195-117 since 1997. ( 62.5% | 66.3 units )
3-7 this year. ( 30.0% | -4.7 units )

CBB | ILLINOIS ST at MISSOURI ST
Play On – Any team (MISSOURI ST) a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after scoring 65 points or less 5 straight games
92-100 since 1997. ( 47.9% | 31.5 units )

CBB | MARIST at QUINNIPIAC
Play On – Underdogs of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (MARIST) terrible shooting team (<=40%) against an good defensive team (40-42.5%), after 2 straight games – allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL information

Hot teams
— Florida won three of its last four games. Oilers won last three home games.
— Chicago is 9-0 in game following its last nine losses.
— Jets won six of their last nine road games. Ducks are 6-1 in game following last seven losses.

Cold teams
— Minnesota lost ten of its last twelve games.

Series records
— Oilers won their last five games with Florida.
— Blackhawks won last four games with Minnesota.
— Ducks won four of last five games with Winnipeg.

Totals
— Five of last six Edmonton home games went over.
— Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Minnesota road games.
— Five of last seven Anaheim games stayed under total.

Back-to-back
— Minnesota is 2-2 if it played night before.
— Winnipeg is 2-2 if it played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

NHL | FLORIDA at EDMONTON
Play On – Home teams against the money line (EDMONTON) horrible offensive team – scoring <=2.4 goals/game on the season, after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game
113-74 since 1997. ( 60.4% | 49.0 units )
3-4 this year. ( 42.9% | -0.4 units )

NHL | WINNIPEG at ANAHEIM
Play On – Road teams against the money line (WINNIPEG) after 6 or more consecutive overs, good defensive team – allowing <=2.55 goals/game on the season
31-11 since 1997. ( 73.8% | 20.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

NHL | FLORIDA at EDMONTON
Play On – Home teams against the money line (EDMONTON) horrible offensive team – scoring <=2.4 goals/game on the season – 2nd half of the season, after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game
46-25 since 1997. ( 64.8% | 26.6 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

NBA | PHOENIX at MEMPHIS
Play Under – Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 off a road loss by 10 points or more, on Sunday games
76-37 since 1997. ( 67.3% | 35.3 units )
5-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 5.0 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at SACRAMENTO
Play On – Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) off a home loss, on Sunday games
62-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 86.1% | 38.6 units )
5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | -2.0 units )

NBA | MIAMI at LA CLIPPERS
Play Under – All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team
135-76 since 1997. ( 64.0% | 51.4 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS LOCKCLUB

FOOTBALL
3* Dnvr -7

HOCKEY
PASS

B-BALL
5* Nebr -2.5
4* Missouri St +1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Florida Panthers -119 over Edmonton Oilers
(System Record: 50-2, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 50-36-1

Rest of the Plays
Winnipeg Jets + Anaheim Ducks OVER 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Basketball Crusher
Loyola Chicago +7 over Wichita State
(System Record: 34-0, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 34-35-1

Rest of the Plays
Houston +3 over Memphis
Missouri State +1.5 over Illinois State
Wisconsin Green Bay -16.5 over Youngstown State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
Dallas Cowboys +6 over Green Bay Packers
(System Record: 52-5, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 52-46-3

Rest of the Plays
none

Hockey Crusher
Florida Panthers -119 over Edmonton Oilers
(System Record: 50-2, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 50-36-1

Rest of the Plays
Winnipeg Jets + Anaheim Ducks OVER 5

Basketball Crusher
Loyola Chicago +7 over Wichita State
(System Record: 34-0, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 34-35-1

Rest of the Plays
Houston +3 over Memphis
Missouri State +1.5 over Illinois State
Wisconsin Green Bay -16.5 over Youngstown State

Soccer Crusher
Cagliari + Cesena UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Italy
(System Record: 688-24, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 688-573-106

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

NFL

3* (117) Dallas +5.5
3* (119) Indianapolis +7

NBA

1* (809) Portland -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE WIZ

Parlay: Dallas/Denver

PAYW: Murray St NCAAB

Late a Phone: Dallas Under
bonus Late Phone: Denver Over