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TheRealWiseOne
ILL -5.5 ($3,000)
ILL -5.5 ($3,000)
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Dr Bob
2* IUPUIComment
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OC Dooley:
“2 UNIT” NCAA AFTERNOON LINETRACKER (Iona +1 at Canisius in a 2:05 pm eastern tipoff):
For those who took the time to read this analysis you most likely are aware of a nationally televised Metro Atlantic Conference tilt back on Friday evening on ESPNU where Iona as a hefty favorite (-11’) failed to cover the spread on the road against a horrible opponent who entered with a 3-12 overall record. Iona ended up barely surviving that visit to Niagra with a “one point” margin of victory. Due to inflated price tags (four consecutive games laying 9’ points each time) Iona has had problems where it counts “failing” to cover the spread four times in a six-game stretch versus league opposition. But the story this afternoon is different as Iona opened offshore as only a one-point favorite and are now at many a locations actually a slight underdog. It was almost exactly a year ago in a National-TV Friday telecast when Iona (-7) suffered an outright home loss versus Canisius who at the time were led by the coach’s son Billy Baron who has since graduatedComment
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VEGAS SHARP
4 Units
302 Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (+100) over Green Bay Packers
4 Units
304 New England Patriots -6.5 over Indianapolis ColtsComment
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TheVegasNightmare
Seattle -8.5Comment
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Rooster
817 Boise state+5.5
833 Fairfield+7.5Comment
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Strike Point Sports
NFL
8* Seattle -7.5Comment
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Cajun Sports
5* New England -6.5
4.5* Over Seattle 45.5Comment
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Over/Under Hotline
Both UNDERS in the NFLComment
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FRANK SANTILLI
200* NFL New England -6½
200* NFL Green Bay +8
200* CBB St John's -5
100* CBB Washington -4½
100* NBA Oklahoma City -9
75* CBB Rider +3Comment
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Worlds Worst Picker
Illinois
St johns
Virginia Tech
WashingtonComment
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Chris James Sports
Packers +8
Colts +7
Loyola Chicago -1Comment
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Strike Point Sports
5* Iona -1Comment
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Wunderdog Sports
NFL : Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Time: Sunday 01/18 3:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Green Bay +7.5 (-115)
I’ve been one of the biggest backers of the Seattle Seahawks the past two years. Over that span I am 16-8 in game picks in Seahawks games, including the call in last year’s Super Bowl over Denver. In that game and leading up to it I have felt the Seahawks were very underrated. I have felt that Russell Wilson is one of the best QBs in the game and didn’t get the respect he deserved. Well, times – they are a changin’. The Green Bay Packers suffered a blow when Aaron Rodgers injured his calf and has been hobbling around the last two games. It will likely not be much better vs. Seattle in the NFC Championship game as he’ll have just a week to try to heal. That may not be as important as everyone thinks. Rodgers was able to lead his team to 30 and 26 points the past two weeks. And, Mike McCarthy has a plan on how to attack the Seattle defense. McCarthy is planning on using a lot of Eddie Lacy, James Starks, and even Randall Cobb on the ground. Looking back at the last two seasons when Seattle has had their stellar defense, teams that succeeded against them all had one thing in common. They beat Seattle by running between the tackles. The Seahawks are too good and too fast to lose through the air or running wide. Teams that commit to running the ball, regardless of early success, have been the Seahawks’ biggest challenge. The last two seasons they are 18-2 ATS if the opponent runs the ball 25 times or fewer, and 26-0 straight-up if the opponent runs the ball 26 or fewer times. When an opponent sticks to the running game, Seattle’s success drops to 8-7 straight up! That’s right: all their losses have occurred vs. teams committed to the run. I think Green Bay’s game plan will be heavy on the run, forcing Seattle to commit extra defenders in the box and giving Rodgers a much better chance. Rodgers is the best ever at avoiding costly interceptions (1.6% INT rate in his career). As hard as it is for opposing QBs to have success against Seattle, if anyone can, it is Aaron Rodgers. It isn’t necessarily the success of running the ball – it is the commitment to it, as four of the seven losses Seattle has sustained the last two years were by teams that ran for much less than 4 yards per carry. Green Bay is vastly improved defensively since moving Clay Matthews to the middle of the field, and the Seattle offense has gone for less than 400 yards 12 times this season. In games against defenses similar to Seattle’s, the Packers scored about 17 points per game this season. But, when Seattle faced high-powered offenses like Green Bay’s, they allowed around 20 points per game. Seattle’s amazing defensive run in the second half of the season has to come with an asterisk. In their last twelve games this team hasn’t faced an offense like they will see on Sunday. Here are the offenses that Seattle has beat up on: St. Louis (2), Carolina (2), San Francisco (2), Arizona (2), Oakland, Giants, Kansas City, Philadelphia. The average rank of those teams offensively? 20th. The only good offense in the bunch was Philadelphia. If we look at the offenses that Seattle faced this year that are similar to the one they will see in this game, Seattle gave up 16 (GB), 20 (Denver), 30 (Dallas) and 14 (Philly). That’s 20 points per game which is a far cry from the 8.0 per game they have allowed over their last seven games. Yes, Seattle’s defense is great. It’s just not as great as the numbers make it seem right now. As a result, we get line value opposing them. I think Green Bay gets into the low to mid 20s in this game. Seattle should also score in that range. It should be a close game that comes down to one possession. Since taking over in Green Bay, the Packers are 34-22 ATS vs. winning teams. Yes, the Seahawks laid a beating on Green Bay when they met in week one. But, NFL playoffs teams that lost to their opponent during the regular season have a distinct advantage, going 55-34-3 (62%) ATS since 2001. I think this line is inflated, even with a hobbled Rogers (who I expect to rise to the occasion). Take Green Bay with the points.Comment
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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
NBA Game: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic
Time: Sunday 01/18 6:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Game Total UNDER 213 (-105)
Orlando is home, but they can’t score, 27th in the NBA in scoring. Orlando is 14-6-1 UNDER the total against the Western Conference, plus 7-1 UNDER against a team with a losing record. Into town comes an Oklahoma City team that’s one of the best defensively in the league, third in field goal shooting defense and 12th in points allowed. They are also No. 6 at defending the three pointer. Oklahoma City is 21-9 UNDER the total on one day of rest. Oklahoma City has been difficult to contain at home, averaging 118.0 points the past four games, but the team hasn’t been able to match that production on the road, scoring 91.7 per game with a 35.1 field-goal percentage while dropping the last three of a four-game skid by an average of 19.3 points. They just ripped Golden State at home, but the Thunder is 11-1 UNDER the total after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. And when these teams meet, the UNDER is 7-3 in Orlando. Play Oklahoma/Orlando UNDER the total.Comment
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