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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369677

    #46
    INDIAN COWBOY

    7-Unit Play. #102. Take Under 48 Seattle vs. New England (Sunday @ 6:30pm est)
    We took the Over last year but this year we will take the Under for a variety of reasons. For starters, Coach Hoodie is a phenomenal defensive mind as he comes from the same tree of thinking that has produced the minds of Coach Nick Saban in Alabama. These are defensive minded coaches at heart and if you give Coach Bill as much time as he has had to prepare for Russel Wilson and the Seahawks it is an innate advantage for such a defensive mind. Sure the Seahawks will show new looks that the Patriots have not seen but having said that, the Seahawks are also going to do what the Seahawks are going to do and not deviate too much. Note that if Russel Wilson found it difficult against the Green Bay Packers defense per interceptions and what not then he is certainly going to find it troublesome against the Patriots who will show multiple different defensive looks.

    The Patriots will have learned a great deal from what Green Bay did and you can believe that if this team is up late Coach Bill is uniquel aware of how to run out the clock and in a relative quick manner. But per this game, this is a decent public fade as well as 2/3rds of the public is on the Over on a primetime national game and that is reason enough to take a look at a team to take the Under. Something that gets overlooked is how much better New England’s defense is better this year and this includes being 8th in the league in points allowed whereas Seattle sports a defense that does not want to get embarrassed as the Colts did. The Seahawks are #1 in the league in defnese in points allowed at just 15.9 points, #1 in passing hards allowed and #1 in total yards allowed.

    Will Brady and company have something to prove regarding the deflated balls, sure. But that doesn’t take away that Pete Carroll too has something to prove to Robert Kraft who gave up on him after 3 seasons as well. There is a lot going into this game per that. At the end of the day, look for both of these teams to do well defensively as the Under is 4-1 in the Patriots last 5 Super Bowl games and the Under is also 11-5 for thee Seahawks in their last 16 games when facing a winning team.

    1-Unit Play. Tom Brady first pass will be a Completion (YES, -180)
    With so much anger and with as much gonads as this Patriots team has with a great deal of defiance, make no mistake about it, this team will look to throw the football just to send a message to both the media, the accusers and anyone else, deflated balls or not, we are here for a reason and we can pass the ball.

    1-Unit Play. Russel Wilson Over 225.0 Passing Yards
    With Wilson’s questionable game against Green Bay, the Patriots will challenge Wilson to beat them and not Marshawn Lynch. Lynch is extremely physical. So the Patriots will indeed challenge Wilson once again to beat them as the knock is can he win you the game by himself if a variety of defensive looks are given. The Seahawks are definitely aware of this and will look to gameplan and allow Wilson to try to win this with his arm as the box will be crowded to stifle Beast Mode.

    1-Unit Play. Russel Wilson Over 17 Compeletions (-110)
    See above explanation – lots of quick screens, and quick hitches to get Wilson comfortable as the Patriots are notorious for not giving up the big play.

    1-Unit Play. Marshawn Lynch Over 82.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
    With as much heat as this guy took for meeting with the press it seems he does it not only to fire himself up for the game but also for publicity reasons (you see the new Progressive Insurance Commercial in which Lynch stars in?). Lynch is brilliant and a lot more intelligent than people give him credit for. Marshawn is well awre of what stage this is and all that pent up fire will come out once again as he has another huge rushing day even if the Patriots crowd the box or not. It’s just another extra defender to knock over for him.

    1-Unit Play. Either team scores 3 times in a row (YES, -180)
    This has hit 5 out of the last 6 years. Teams have a way of getting on a roll and getting in a pattern so there is no reason why not to do this prop once again this year.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369677

      #47
      JACK CLAYTON

      4-Star Super Bowl ATS Slam!

      NFL (101) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS (102) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS.

      PLAY the (101) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS/SEAHAWKS – UNDER THE TOTAL.
      Can’t see a lot of points scored in this Super Bowl. Both defenses are very good, one is great tops in the NFL) and the offenses will have trouble matching up. New England is not a running team, using the run simply to set up play action passes. But they won’t be able to run on this Seattle D-line and the Seahawks secondary is no. 1 against the pass. The Packers/Seahawks game went over the total but, come on, it was 19-7 with 3 minutes left. The Patriots vastly improved defense is No. 8 in points allowed (19 ppg). The problem for Seattle is the one-dimensional offense that ranks 27th in passing, tops in rushing. Belichick will focus on taking RB Marshawn Lynch away, or at least containing him, so grab the versatile Pats and their great QB and coaching staff. The Under is 4-1 in the Patriots last 5 Superbowl games and the under is 11-5 in the Seahawks last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.

      Play (101) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS/SEAHAWKS UNDER THE TOTAL.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369677

        #48
        Esquire Picks

        TOP NFL PICK OF THE MONTH ($5,000)
        New England Patriots
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369677

          #49
          Football Crusher

          Play of the Day
          Seattle Seahawks PK over New England Patriots

          Rest of the Plays
          none
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          Comment

          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369677

            #50
            Hockey Crusher

            Play of the Day
            Vancouver Canucks -140 over Minnesota Wild

            Rest of the Plays
            Nashville Predators + Pittsburgh Penguins UNDER 5.5
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369677

              #51
              Basketball Crusher

              Play of the Day
              Western Illinois +5.5 over North Dakota State

              Rest of the Plays
              USC +12 over Utah
              Youngstown State* +2.5 over Oakland
              Florida State* +1.5 over Miami (FL)
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369677

                #52
                Soccer Crusher

                Lokeren + AA Gent UNDER 2.5
                This match is happening in Belgium
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369677

                  #53
                  Totals 4 U
                  2015 NFL Super Bowl XLIX Super Total of the Year!!!!!
                  New England/Seattle under 47 1/2
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369677

                    #54
                    SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS NFL is 10-3 this postseason

                    4.5-STAR Seattle over New England as" We see it often in the playoffs and even more so in the Super Bowl. When an elite defense matches up with an elite offense, it is the defense that carries the edge. The discrepancy here isnae t as big as it was with the Broncos a season ago but it still exists. Seattle played their worst game possible, committing a complete outlier in five turnovers, yet still survived against one of the leagueae s best teams. Look for a significant regression in the turnovers, while forcing a couple will be the key difference.
                    Seattle has not been more than a 1.5-point dog all season and has played to an average line of -6.8 ppg., the second highest in the league despite a tough schedule and 2.4 ppg higher than the Patriots. Playoff teams are 57-41-2 ATS when the line in the game is at least 6.8 points higher than their average line this season (playoffs=1 and tA(line)-line<=-6.8).
                    As an underdog, Seattle has performed fantastically for several years. The Seahawks are 18-4-2 ATS (7.9 ppg) since September 25, 2011 as underdogs (team = Seahawks and D and date >= 20110925).
                    This total of 48 is being drive by New England as well as Seattleae s games have only averaged 41.5 ppg. Teams playing in games where the total is at least 4.4 points higher than the average amount of points scored in their games are 36-18 ATS (playoffs=1 and total-(tA(points)+tA(ooints))>=4.4).
                    The Patriots are the leagueae s highest scoring offense at 30.4 ppg. Teams averaging at least 27.5 ppg are 23-38 ATS (playoffs=1 and tA(points)>27.5).
                    They will be playing in hostile territory after getting comfortable playing three straight home games. Teams that are favorites after playing at least three straight home games are 31-51 ATS (F and p:H and pp:H and ppp:H).
                    New England put a historic beating on Indianapolis in the AFC Championship game, winning 45-7. Teams that scored at least 39 points in a playoff game are 3-17 ATS next game (points>=39 and playoffs = 1).
                    They picked up 28 first downs in the easy victory. Teams which picked up at least 25 first downs in a playoff game last game are 10-21 ATS (playoffs=1 and p:FD>=25).
                    Seattle meanwhile could not have had any different of a game in the NFC Championship game which they won in overtime. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS (20.6 ppg) since 2005 coming off an overtime game when they are not undefeated on the season (team = Seahawks and p:overtime = 1 and season>=2005 and losses>0).
                    The game winner came on the first possession of overtime with a Jermaine Kearse game winner. Teams coming off overtime wins with a touchdown are 49-36-4 ATS (p:overtime=1 and p:margin=6).

                    It took that miracle comeback after they trailed 16-7 entering the fourth quarter. Teams that outscored their opponent by at least 15 points after the third quarter are 139-109-7 ATS (p:margin - p:M3>=15). Also, the Seahawks are 9-0 ATS since January 2007 coming off a win where they trailed by less than 14 points after three quarters (team=Seahawks and p:W and -14
                    =20070101).
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                    Comment

                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369677

                      #55
                      Tony Appz Full ticket

                      15* Seattle PK
                      20* Seattle Pats UNDER 48
                      10* Stl vs caps Under 5.5
                      5* Heat vs Celtics UNDER 186
                      5* Parlay Seattle and Under of superbowl
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 369677

                        #56
                        VEGAS SHARP


                        5 Units - Seattle Seahawks +1
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 369677

                          #57
                          Just Cover Baby

                          Here is my rock-solid guess for the Superbowl:

                          5* New England

                          If the line is a point or two either way, I would suggest simply betting the moneyline. However, Just Cover Baby only releases plays vs the pointspread. (Just Cover Baby and Coin Flipper Sports both use the closing line at Don Best Sports for monitoring purposes.) I have no opinion on the "total."

                          Certain games throughout the year I simply go with the team that I want to win, or a gut feeling, things that most people would consider ridiculous reasons for picking one team over another. The Super Bowl is the one game each year where I just go with the team that I want to win, then I rate the game accordingly depending on how confident I am in "my" team. It just so happens that in this year's game, the team that I want to win is the same team that I honestly believe will win this game, that team being the Patriots. This will be my largest wager of the year because 1) I only wager on football, this is it for me until next season. 2) It's the Super Bowl. 3) I'm playing with profits. 4) I feel that strongly about New England winning this game. This is also a game that I want the Patriots to win. If I had no money on this game I would be rooting for the Patriots. I'm from Redwood City CA. Brady grew up about five miles from me in San Mateo. Edelman went to the same high school as my kids. I've always liked Belichick. Have never been a big fan of Pete Carroll, just don't like the way he celebrates alone on the sidelines when winning, then surrounds himself with his assistants when losing. I think the Seahawks have the worst uniforms this side of Maryland. And I just like the way the Patriots go about their business.

                          Now for my "in-depth" analysis: Yes, I truly believe that New England will win this game, hence the 5* rating. I think it will be a great game, and probably a close game, but I just see Belichick and Brady holding that trophy after the game. I know that Seattle has a good defense (And stop it! No more comparing this unit to the '85 Bears) But they're good. But are they good enough to shut down Brady, Gronk, and Edelman with Belichick having two weeks to prepare? I don't think so. I can easily see the Pats scoring over 30 points. I don't see the Seahawks doing that. Lynch is going to get his yards, might even break a couple long ones. But I just see the Patriots' offense being able to move the ball, both running and passing, and the Patriots' defense disrupting Wilson into a couple mistakes and winning this game. That's it. No systems or angles, no "inside information" (whatever that is). Just a hunch, but my hunches recently won 16 straight 5* plays over three months.

                          Still not sure which way to go on this game? (oh c'mon you can do it!) Allow me to make a suggestion. Odds are that you are a big football fan. And there's a good chance that you like one of these teams more than the other. Why not just bet on the team that you want to win. This is the Super Bowl, for a football fan the biggest day of the year, a fun day. Keep it fun, root for your team, bet on your team, and don't overdo things. And whatever you do, do not! I repeat, do not! pay some phony-baloney your hard-earned money to make this pick for you.

                          If you're simply going back and forth on this, remember, we've all been there. When you're on a "hot" streak, picks just seem to come a little easier, at least for me. But when you're on a "cold" streak, oh baby, we all know how that feels, everybody on the edge of their seats waiting for you to make your call so they can "fade" your sorry ass. Yeah, cold streaks are no fun. Knowing (for a fact!) that whichever team you pick is going to get it's butt kicked and doesn't stand a chance in hell of covering and if you try going "the other way" it only guarantees that your new team will lose on the last play of the game with the announcer screaming "Wow, I've never seen that happen before!" Yep, it happens to us all. Luckily I've been on a nice little hot streak lately and I don't see too many cold streaks anymore. That, however, means nothing. This is one game, the game, and nobody knows what's going to happen. You have my opinion, I think the Patriots win. And there are millions of other opinions out there, about half for each team. But all that matters is what you think.

                          Now, c'mon, make your pick. (No! the other team!)

                          Seriously, just go with the Patriots. I think you'll be glad you did.
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 369677

                            #58
                            Jason Sample:

                            1 Unit
                            Pats/Seahawks 1H U24 (-120)

                            1/2 Unit
                            Neither Team Scores 30+ (+100)
                            Field Goals O3.5 (+115)
                            Jon Ryan Shortest Punt U35.5

                            1/4 Unit
                            First Half Tie/NE Wins (+1900)
                            First Half Tie/Sea Wins (+1900)
                            Vereen Scores First TD (+1750)
                            Wilson Scores First TD (+1400)

                            1/8 Unit
                            First Half Tie/Goes to OT (+5000)
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 369677

                              #59
                              Steve Budin - CEO

                              Sunday's Play

                              The Cali-Cartel has a 50 Dime play on New England against Seattle. The Patriots can be found from -1 to +1 at the Vegas and offshore books I've checked as of 3:00 A.M. Eastern.

                              Note From Stevo

                              One final football play today from the Cali-Cartel, a long-time favorite and one that you're well familiar with over the past decade, for their 50 Dime Winner # 20 of 28 this season on the Patriots-Seahawks.

                              They are 26-14-1 overall in college and the NFL combined, cashing with two of their last three NFL 50 Dimers.
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 369677

                                #60
                                Arthur Ralph

                                Super Pick Washington -7 CBB

                                Gold Key CBB Utah -11 1/2

                                Trophy Play NE Pats + 1, opinion over 47 on the total Pats/ Seahawks
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