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Everyone is aware of the phenomenal run that Wesbrook has been on: 43 PPG, 13 RPG, and 10 APG in his last 4 starts. But one thing that some might not be aware of is that he’s averaging 34 shot-attempts per game in those starts, accounting for 36% of all the team’s shots during this span. What else is interesting is that OKC is only 1-3 in those games, with the only win coming at home in OT, against the worst team in the league – the Sixers. Defensively, the Thunder have allowed 109 PPG during this Westbrook-run. It’s one thing to allow Phoenix to score 109 on you (in regulation…game also went to OT) and Portland to put up 115 – those are excellent offensive squads. But when the 30th ranked offensive team like the Sixers scores 110 on you in regulation (118 with OT) and an injury plagued squad (no Rose, no Butler, no Gibson) like the Bulls puts up 108, then clearly there are some very serious defensive issues with this team. And that’s why a team like the Raptors should have success in this one. Toronto ranks 3rd in Off-Efficiency, 8th in eFG%, 5th in TO-rate, and 3rd in FT-rate. This is a very efficient scoring squad and they should be able to put up points in this one. I know Toronto has been playing really poorly lately, going 2-7 in the last 9 games. But they’ve played some of them without Lowry and faced top-notch teams like HOU, GSW, and CLE in others. Out of all these games during this stretch, the highest spread they’ve had was +5.5 @ Atlanta, a game they actually won. The number tonight indicates to me that Toronto is as ‘undervalued’ as they’ve been all season and a good spot to back them while receiving some ‘pure value’ with this line. Besides being 1-3 in Westbrook’s last 4 starts, OKC is also 2-6 this year when he has 30+ FG-attempts. Unless something drastic changes, I expect Westbrook to once again hog most of the possessions for OKC and attempt a ton of shots in this one. He should put up stats with ease, but winning this game while covering an inflated number should be more difficult.
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