3-9-15

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ARI ATARI

Soccer | Mar 09, 2015
Arsenal vs. Manchester United
Arsenal+196
Arsenal to finally break United hex
English Football Association Cup, Round Six
Monday 9th March 3:45pm (EST)

It would be an understatement to say in the matter of Arsenal versus Manchester, the Gunners are 'Due'. Since the Fa Cup final win in 05' Arsenal, despite being clearly a superior football team at some points, so often seem to freeze versus United. Indeed in the last eleven attempts they have won one game over them. While history is against them and the pressure will be high on the current cup holders to defend the title, I fully expect them to go a step towards it on Monday night.

In truth neither team has been playing especially well of late despite picking up wins in the vast majority of games played. The form table for the calendar year has Arsenal second and United fourth but it truly doesn't tell the whole story, especially in United's case. Van Gaal is likely to play a very deep formation as he did in the first league game this season. Arsenal peppered the United goal that game with 22 shots, but due to a woeful performance from Wilshere, who is out of the game anyway and a freak inability to finish that day, they transpired to throw away what should have been a decisive victory.

Van Gaal knows that if United play an open game, Arsenal have Sanchez, Walcott, Chamberlain and ex United man Welbeck who can hit them hard on the counter attack with blinding pace. Being fed with passes from Ozil and Cazorla this is potentially devastating, and why no team in England at least will elect to play an open game versus Arsenal. Typically United and other big teams, in recent years have elected to play deep and soak Arsenals pressure hitting them on the break. Arsenal however versus Manchester City this year showed some maturity in attack and allowed City the ball a little more, allowing the opposition for a change, the ball in non threatening areas. I believe they will want to do this again, especially given United are at home for the game. If the aforementioned players can get on the ball on the break with United on the back foot I believe they will hurt United. If they can score an early goal, more so the case, and force United to attack, exposing themselves more at the back.

Mertesacker will return to the first XI given Gabriels injury. His only weakness is his lack of pace, but given that Wenger has put Coquelin in front of the defence (the first time he has played a combative midfielder since Arsenal regularly won things) and other than Di Maria, who is highly unlikely to get in a one v one situation with him given his positioning under Van Gaal, United have no real players of pace. Koscienly has matured this year and the two of them, with Coquelin acting as a shield in front of them should be enough to keep United out. A set piece is the only likely goal threat, especially if Fellani is chosen in midfield, but if he plays his lack of mobility will see Uniteds midfield outmaneuvered consistently as the game progresses.

Sanchez, while slowing down in the last month, has had an incredible debut year and his pace, trickery and instinct will trouble any combination of Smalling and Evans, if indeed Evans isn't retroactively suspended for the game. Sanchez scored a wonderful goal on Wednesday showing what he can do if given space or too much respect. Ozil has been in fine form since his return. He has covered more ground than any Arsenal player, silencing critics claims of his laziness. Giroud, the Monaco game apart, looks good and is in a rich vein of form since returning from injury. His stats this year make for very impressive reading. Santi Cazorla is likely to cause United headaches consistently in the middle with his two-footed, ability and has enjoyed a great year.As mentioned at the start of the piece, Arsenals results haven't told the full story of the season, but they are showing more signs of resilience and a testicular fortitude which they have been accused, often correctly so of lacking, especially versus United in the past. Coquelins added bite in midfield is the physical embodiment of this.

Van Gaal has admitted he is far from finding his best XI, and further from finding a system to accommodate them all. Van Gaal perhaps has the issue of too many cooks, with Rooney, Van Persie, Falcao, Di Maria, Mata and Herrera, among others all competing for a place in the attack. As we've seen it looks good on paper but it doesn't translate to quality football.
Van Persie is out injured though, as any United fan will confirm is something of a blessing, he has very much shown his age this year and will most likely be moved on in the summer.Rooney has been experimented with several times this year. It has been pointed out seasons before, that his passing range would allow him to drop deeper and play in a Scholes-esque position, but in truth versus a competent midfield he looks out of his depth. The game often passes him by and his pass selection becomes very questionable. He will likely play up front versus Arsenal but expect him to be well marshaled by the energetic Coquelin if he plays in a more advanced role.

This leads onto the Mata issue. Having paid a vast sum of money for him, it would be expected of him to play and play well, but with Rooney occupying his position and throwing in Di Maria into the mix, his chances have became more restricted, and again when given the chance he isn't necessarily in his preferred position.

Di Maria has been extremely disappointing after a great first few games. While being a more than competent technician, his greatest ability to hurt opposition is his pace. However the places on the field he receives the ball due to the positioning of his teammates, occupying the places he would ideally play, between the opponents midfield and attack, means that he can't employ his pace directly against the opponents nearly enough times per game. It becomes frustrating to watch these players taking up the same positions on the field, and often getting in each others way.

Falcao still has his great instincts, but his injuries have taken a very noticeable toll. His pace is at least a yard off what it was previously. Being dropped and rotated have evidently not helped his confidence and United are playing a very different game to Atlético (where he previously played to a consistent world class level). A combination of these things has left him looking a shadow of the deadly attacker we saw in Spain. In midfield Herrera has been quietly quite impressive when he has played, but isn't being given enough of a run in the team to get ahead. Ashley Young has actually had a decent year after a torrid time under Moyes. Januzaj has been very poor this year. Blind while very smart on the ball certainly lacks pace which Arsenal will look to exploit.

Van Gaal's 3-5-2 has been far from a success this year. If he does play it he has to fit 4 of the above attackers into various positions, assuming he plays at least one defensive mid, which leaves attacking players in unfamiliar territory for large portions of the game explaining why United have looked anything but a progressive, fluent football team throughout the course of the season. Almost all victories they have taken have came from grinding out victories instead of dominating teams as we saw under Ferguson. They have enough individual quality in these players to beat clearly inferior opposition. However versus teams of quality they look disjointed and very vulnerable.

I see Arsenal winning this fixture, and Sanchez being the difference maker for Arsenal. Additionally I see Giroud getting on the scoresheet. His record versus big teams is more than somewhat underwhelming but he looks determined to break that. Expect a big game from Ozil also, after Paul Scholes criticized him this week. If Arsenal repeat the performance and tactics they put in versus Manchester City this year, a clearly superior and more defensively competent side to United (though admittedly poor that day, caught out by the more mature Arsenal tactics), I expect Arsenal to score in both halves of the game and progress to the quarter finals.

SportsAtari
Bonus scoreline prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Arsenal

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Penguins won six of their last seven games.
-- Anaheim won four of its last five games.


Cold teams
-- Islanders lost three of their last four games. Toronto lost four of last five.
-- Edmonton lost six of its last seven games. Detroit lost last two games, 5-2/5-3.
-- Nashville lost its last six games, scoring 11 goals. Arizona lost 11 of last 12 games.
-- Sharks lost 11 of their last 16 games.
-- Canucks lost four of their last five games.


Series records
-- Islanders won six of last nine games with Toronto.
-- Red Wings won 14 of last 15 games with Edmonton.
-- Predators won their last four games with Arizona.
-- Sharks won eight of last ten games with Pittsburgh.
-- Ducks won nine of last ten games with Vancouver.


Totals
-- Four of last five Toronto home games went over.
-- Six of last nine Detroit home games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Nashville road games stayed under.
-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Pittsburgh road games.
-- Four of last five Anaheim road games stayed under.

Back-to-back
-- Edmonton is 1-7 if it played night before; Detroit is 4-3.

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Charlotte won its last five games (3-6 last nine HF).
-- Miami won three of its last four games (4-7 last 11 HF).
-- Hawks won six of last seven games (2-7 last nine HF).
-- Pelicans won seven of their last nine games (7-2 last nine AU).
-- Warriors won five of their last six games (12-4-1 last 17 HF).

Cold Teams
-- Washington lost eight of its last ten games (1-5 last six AU).
-- Celtics lost three of their last five games (12-3 last 15 AU).
-- Sacramento lost five of its last six games (3-7 last ten AU).
-- Memphis is 3-4 in its last seven games (0-4 last four AF). Bulls also lost four of their last seven (4-0 last four HU).
-- Milwaukee lost six of its last eight games (3-6 last nine HF).
-- Knicks lost 11 of last 13 games (1-3-1 last five AU). Denver lost 14 of its last 17 games (0-4 last four HF).
-- Suns lost 11 of their last 16 games (4-2 HU).
-- Minnesota lost four of its last five games (5-1 last six HU). Clippers are 3-4 in their last seven games (3-1 last four HF).

Series Records
-- Hornets won their last five games with Washington.
-- Celtics lost eight of last eleven games with Miami.
-- Hawks won their last eleven games with Sacramento.
-- Grizzlies won four of last six games with Chicago.
-- Bucks lost six of last seven games with New Orleans.
-- Home side won ten of last eleven New York-Denver games.
-- Warriors are 9-3 in last 12 games with Phoenix; home side won eight of last nine series games.
-- Clippers won their last eleven games with Minnesota.

Totals
-- Six of last seven Washington road games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Miami home games went over.
-- Five of last six Sacramento road games went over.
-- Six of last eight Memphis road games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten New Orleans road games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Denver home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Golden State road games stayed under.
--

Back-to-Backs
-- Charlotte is 3-4 at home if it played night before.
-- Celtics are 8-3 if they played the night before.
-- Chicago is 1-3 at home if it played night before.
-- Warriors are 3-5 vs spread if they won night before.
-- Clippers are 5-8 if they played the day before.

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StatFox Super Situations

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at PHOENIX
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half
44-17 since 1997. ( 72.1% | 25.3 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

NBA | SACRAMENTO at ATLANTA
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games
77-29 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.6% | 37.2 units )
7-3 this year. ( 70.0% | 2.5 units )

NBA | MEMPHIS at CHICAGO
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games
102-54 since 1997. ( 65.4% | 42.6 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% | 1.7 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

CBB | BALL ST at BOWLING GREEN
Play On - Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (BALL ST) after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams score 75 points or more
52-22 since 1997. ( 70.3% | 27.8 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

CBB | MIAMI OHIO at E MICHIGAN
Play Against - A favorite vs. the money line (E MICHIGAN) off an upset win as a home underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record
29-27 over the last 5 seasons. ( 51.8% | 29.7 units )
2-7 this year. ( 22.2% | -2.2 units )

CBB | SAVANNAH ST at DELAWARE ST
Play On - Neutral Court underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (SAVANNAH ST) revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a road loss
124-69 since 1997. ( 64.2% | 48.1 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

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Totals 4 You NBA Selections for Monday, March 9th

March's Pro Basketball Scoreboard-Scorcher of the Month!!!!!
New Orleans/Milwaukee over 186 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Tuesday's NBA Report Free of Charge!!!

NBA Best Bets
Washington/Charlotte over 187 1/2
Sacramento/Atlanta under 205
New York/Denver under 202
Golden State/Phoenix over 216 1/2

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Steven Nover

3* New Orleans +2

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PAUL LEINER

100* NBA - Bulls/Grizzlies - Over 185.5
100* CBB - Ohio +9
50* CBB - Akron -6.5

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Ethan Alexander: Sacramento Kings +11
Bob Greenfield Sacramento Kings +11
Cameron Owens: Sacramento Kings +11

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Northeastern vs. William & Mary

The Tribe play for the Colonial Athletic Association championship tonight against a Northeastern team that is coming off a 78-71 win over NC-Wilmington on Sunday and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU victory. William & Mary is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tribe favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's NCAA Basketball picks.

MONDAY, MARCH 9 Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 865-866: Ball State at Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 48.720; Bowling Green 57.338 Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 11 Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+11)

Game 867-868: Northern Illinois at Akron (7:00 a.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 56.799; Akron 59.131 Dunkel Line: Akron by 2 1/2 Vegas Line: Akron by 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+6 1/2)

Game 869-870: Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 50.871; Eastern Michigan 61.361 Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 10 1/2 Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (-7 1/2)

Game 871-872: Ohio at Western Michigan (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 50.575; Western Michigan 62.066 Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 11 1/2 Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 9 Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (-9)

Game 873-874: Northeastern vs. William & Mary (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 51.360; William & Mary 54.780 Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 3 1/2 Vegas Line: William & Mary by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (-1 1/2)

Game 875-876: Pepperdine vs. Gonzaga (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 58.358; Gonzaga 74/910 Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 16 1/2 Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 14 Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-14)

Game 877-878: Portland vs. BYU (11:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 59.089; BYU 65.117 Dunkel Line: BYU by 6 Vegas Line: BYU by 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Portland (+8 1/2)

Game 879-880: South Dakota vs. South Dakota State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 53.453; South Dakota State 58.583 Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 5 Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: South Dakota (+8 1/2)

Game 881-882: Oral Roberts vs. North Dakota State (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oral Roberts 51.945; North Dakota State 52.821 Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 1 Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 3 Dunkel Pick: Oral Roberts (+3)

Game 883-884: Furman vs. Wofford (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Furman 45.422; Wofford 55.579 Dunkel Line: Wofford by 10 Vegas Line: Wofford by 12 Dunkel Pick: Furman (+12)

Game 885-886: Manhattan vs. Iona (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 53.437; Iona 58.983 Dunkel Line: Iona by 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Iona by 3 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Iona (-3 1/2)

Game 887-888: Savannah State vs. Delaware State (6:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Savannah State 37.470; Delaware State 47.894 Dunkel Line: Delaware State by 10 1/2 Vegas Line: Delaware State by 7 Dunkel Pick: Delaware State (=7)

Game 889-890: Morgan State vs. Hampton (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 37.054; Hampton 44.569 Dunkel Line: Hampton by 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Hampton by 5 Dunkel Pick: Hampton (-5)

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Today's NBA Picks

Minnesota at LA Clippers

The Timberwolves head to Los Angeles tonight to face a Clippers team that is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 Monday games. Minnesota is the pick (+8) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+8).. Here are all of today's NBA picks.

MONDAY, MARCH 9 Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: Washington at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 113.323; Charlotte 125/570 Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 12; 183 Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 1 1/2; 187 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-1 1/2); Under

Game 703-704: Boston at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 115.997; Miami 120.808 Dunkel Line & Total; Miami by 5; 195 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2 1/2; 200 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2); Under

Game 705-706: Sacramento at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 114.801; Atlanta 122.116 Dunkel Line & Total; Atlanta by 7 1/2; 211 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 11; 207 Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+11); Over

Game 707-708: Memphis at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 117.645; Chicago 122.216 Dunkel Line & Total; Chicago by 4 1/2; 189 Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 4 1/2; 184 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4 1/2); Over

Game 709-710: New Orleans at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 116.553; Milwaukee 118.922 Dunkel Line & Total; Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 181 Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 186 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-1 1/2); Under

Game 711-712: New York at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 108.440; Denver 116.510 Dunkel Line & Total; Denver by 11; 197 Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 9; 204 Dunkel Pick: Denver (-9); Under

Game 713-714: Golden State at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 122.354; Phoenix 119.191 Dunkel Line & Total; Golden State by 3; 222 Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 215 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+5); Over

Game 715-716: Minnesota at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 117.230; LA Clippers 122.855 Dunkel Line & Total; LA Clippers by 5 1/2; 212 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8; 208 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+8); Over

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Today's NHL Picks

Pittsburgh at San Jose

The Penguins head to San Jose tonight to face a Sharks team that is 1-9 in its last 10 home games. Pittsburgh is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-115). Here are all of today's NHL picks.

MONDAY, MARCH 9 Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: NY Islanders at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 9.546; Toronto 10.674 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-180: 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+160); Over

Game 3-4: Edmonton at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.227; Detroit 9.868 Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-340): 5 Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+270); Over

Game 5-6: Nashville at Arizona (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.204; Arizona 9.795 Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-220); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-220); Under

Game 7-8: Pittsburgh at San Jose (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 13.445; San Jose 11.827 Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-115); Under

Game 9-10: Anaheim at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.182; Vancouver 10.485 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-110); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (=110); Over

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Larry Ness

Game: Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets Mar 9 2015 7:00PM
Prediction: over
Reason: My 10* Conf Goin' Over Total G.O.M. (East) is on Was/Cha Over at 7:05 ET.

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Sports Handicapper King

Ross Raposo: San Jose Sharks