3-27-15

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Godfather locks

3 Louisville
5 zags
5 MSU
5 Utah

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GP From Vegas

CBB


Utah+5.5
UCLA+9
NC State/Louisville Under 129
Oklahoma+2.5
Northern Arizona-2

NHL
No Plays

NBA
No Plays

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Sebastian

1000* Gonzaga

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DOC SPORTS (NBA)

2-Unit Play #852 Take Orlando +2 over Detroit (7 p.m. EST, Friday)

The Magic have had a very tough schedule lately and have had some lousy overall results outside of that home win against Portland last week. But this is probably their most winnable game of the month and we think they bring their A Game tonight. The Pistons have been playing well but they are getting overrated by the oddsmakers here tonight. This team always seems to underachieve when you start to have some confidence in them, and we expect the Magic to win this game was we had them as a slight favorite in our handicapping with this matchup.

7-Unit Play #853 Take LA Clippers/Philadelphia UNDER 201 (7 p.m. EST, Friday)

This total has been inflated because the Clippers churned out 127 points at home in January in the last meeting between these teams. There are plenty of reasons to think that this one will turn out a different way. The Clippers got out to a huge double-digit lead in the first quarter and the rest of the game was just a free for all as not much defense was played on either side in a game that was not competitive. LA scored nearly 40 points in the fourth quarter when the game was already way out of hand. They shot over 54 percent in that game, which is a full 10 percentage points over what the Sixers average on the season. We think that this game will be more competitive and the Sixers have been playing pretty good defense lately. We think they can slow the Clippers down in this game. They have held three of their last five opponents in the 80s, although those are poor offensive clubs. But holding an opponent in the 80s in any NBA game shows a dedication to defense. Lately the Sixers are holding opponents to less than 100 on most nights and when they do allow an opponent to the century mark they are not giving up those 110+ kind of results on a regular basis. In fact, they only played a couple bad defensive games in the last month. The Clippers are not as good on the road offensively as they are at Staples Center, and although we expect them to score more than 100, we don’t think they will put up a monster offensive total here tonight. The Philly offense straight up stinks. They are dead last in the NBA for points scored and they are way down at the bottom of the list for shooting percentage at 40.9 percent, almost two full percentage points lower than the next worst team, New York. Philly is one of the best under teams in the league at 44-28, and we think that this total is about seven points too high tonight. There’s no reason to think that the Clippers won’t totally shut down the Philly offense, and we are sure the Sixers remember that big point total they gave up in LA last time and will try to play a lot better defense here at home. Plus, the Clippers have been playing great offensively but they always have that one road game where they play a horrible offensive game, and this one could be it, which if it happens would bring this one in well under tonight’s posted number.

3-Unit Play #866 Take New Orleans -6.5 over Sacramento (8 p.m. EST, Friday)

The Pelicans have dropped four straight against a very tough schedule and we think that this game is basically a playoff game for them. They must win this game in order to have any hope stay alive for the playoffs. Sacramento has won four straight, but sans Phoenix they had a very easy schedule during that stretch. Philly is no good and the Wizards and Hornets have been playing awful lately. Just think they are getting a little too much respect with this line because of the way these teams have played lately, and we had the Pelicans at -9 for this game. Getting this number on the other side of the key NBA number of 7 is huge, and we expect a very comfortable win by the home team tonight.

4-Unit Play #870 Take Memphis +3 over Golden State (8 p.m. EST, Friday)

There are several reasons we think Memphis has a great chance to win this game. The Warriors are pretty much guaranteed the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and they could sleepwalk the rest of the way through the season and still get it. No matter what they say publicly this is a mental issue that will probably affect this team down the stretch. Memphis has always been competitive in this series and they won the lone meeting this season and have covered in six of the last eight meetings. Even though the Warriors keep covering, these lines are getting outrageous and we had the Grizzlies handicapped as a slight favorite in this game. They got steamrolled last time out here in this same building against the Cavs, and we expect to see a much better game from them this time out since we don’t often see them play two bad games in a row, especially at home.

3-Unit Play #872 Take San Antonio -9.5 over Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST, Friday)

Huge revenge spot for the Spurs as they got creamed in Dallas earlier this week. Revenge is not a huge handicapping angle in the NBA as it is more relevant in college hoops, but when teams are rivals like this and play the games in such close succession it does come in play. And that is the situation we have here tonight. Besides that blemish against the Mavs and that head-scratching loss to the Knicks in New York, the Spurs have been playing otherwise flawless basketball, and we expect them to bring their A Game tonight and to win this one by double digits in the Alamo City.

5-Unit Play #874 Take Denver -1.5 over Utah (9 p.m. EST, Friday)

Utah went from hot to ice cold and they have now lost three straight both straight up and against the spread. We had the Nuggets handicapped at -4.5 for this game so we think there is some great value tonight. Denver has had a very tough road-heavy schedule lately, and now that they got their tough first game back home out of the way we think they are in a great position for a big win tonight against a team that is overrated by the oddsmakers tonight. One day of rest has been key for this Denver team lately and that has been the sweet spot with a 7-0 ATS mark in this situations. They are also 5-1 ATS as a slight favorite this year and they have better overall talent than the Jazz and we will take advantage of this short line on Friday.

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10 Top Total Play · Over [881] UCLA Bruins vs. [882] Gonzaga Bulldogs
The Stat Report Fri Mar 27th, 2015 7:15pm EDT

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Pointwise
Gonzaga 3*
Mich st 4*
Duke 5*
Nc st 6*

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Sheep

Open Order Utah +5