4-4-15

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Machine

kentucky
kentucky ml
mich st

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Diamond Dog Sports

NBA
#819: Pelicans: +5.0 (-105) (1.5*)


NCAAB
#821: Wisconsin: +5.0 (-105) (0.5*)

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Scott delaney

150 dime – duke

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Bryan rosica

100 dime – duke

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ROBERT FERRINGO (NBA)

7-Unit Play. Take #807 Brooklyn (+9.5) at Atlanta (7:30 p.m., Saturday, April 4)

Note: Was mis-posted as a 3-Unit Play.

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BETTING AS A BUSINESS

NBA

Dallas +6.5 / Golden St. 7:35 ET 1.25 Units
(Play ON Dallas)

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STEEL CITY CAPPERS 6-1 over last 7 ncaa

Kentucky
Michigan St.

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Winyourwagers

Kentucky vs Wisconsin – Under 131

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Vincent Rizzo Sports

NCAA Tournament FinalFour Top Play 1 — Duke -5 (3U)

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DHAYES2

1* Nets +9.5

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marco d'angelo

4% kentucky

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Tony Finn
Late Look Sharp Move
UN 186 Jazz

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EZWINNERS Added Play for Saturday

NCAAB

3* (821) Wisconsin +4.5

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VEGAS SORTS INFORMER

COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAY

4 Unit Play. Take #821 Over 131 Wisconsin at Kentucky (8:45p.m., Saturday April 4 TBS)
Yes I know the Kentucky Wildcats have an outstanding defense but if you are Wisconsin you need the spread out the floor a must hit the 3-ball. The Badgers are averaging 80.5ppg in their 4 tournament games this season and I see them scoring against the Kentucky ‘D’. The Wildcats offense has been great in the tournament as well but again their defense has been the whole story. As long as the Badgers play their game this total should have no problem going over and I see both teams creeping around the high 60’s or low 70’s tonight in Indianapolis.

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JASON SHARPE

4 Unit Play Take #821 Wisconsin +5 over Kentucky (8:45pm est):

These two teams are much closer than most people realize as Wisconsin is the exact type of team who matches up very well with Kentucky. Kentucky has the best defense (raw numbers) we’ve seen in CBB the last 15 years at Kenpom while Wisconsin comes in with easily having the best offensive season ever this year. I doubt that either one of these sides has any real edge over the other when Wisconsin has the basketball on offense against the Kentucky defense.

It’s the other side of the equation where I feel the Badgers biggest edge plays out. Kentucky’s offense isn’t anywhere near the same level of greatness as their defense and can actually be slowed down by the right kind of team, one built like Wisconsin. The Wildcats are the tallest team in the country and they use that size to overpower teams down low as they score a high percentage of their points off of their offensive rebounds. The problem here is that the Badgers defensive rebounding percentage ranks in the top five nationally as it’s extremely difficult to gain any kind of edge against Wisconsin this way as the Badgers are also a big team and rank as the 2nd tallest team in CBB behind only Kentucky. The Wildcats also use their power and size down low to draw a ton of fouls which is another area that Wisconsin is great at defensively as their ranked #1 in the nation in percentage of points allowed on free throws by an opponent.

Looking closely at their resumes this season and you see that Wisconsin has been every bit as dominant this year as Kentucky especially when you start to factor in their schedules. The Badgers rolled thru the much tougher Big Ten Conference this year where they went 19-2 overall as they won both the regular season and conference tournament titles. The Badgers played the 37th toughest non-conference schedule and 13 of their 16 non-conference wins came by more than 10 points. Kentucky is from the much weaker SEC which has been clearly the worst of the so called power conferences in basketball the last few years. The Wildcats have played the 99th ranked non-conference schedule this season and 14 of their 17 non-conference wins were by more than ten points overall which amounts to one more blowout type win and they do so against an easier schedule as well.

The only real difference between these two teams comes in the loss column as Wisconsin was beaten in one non-conference game this year and that was to Final Four team Duke and was four months ago. The Badgers had two league defeats as well, one in which their superstar Frank Kaminsky didn’t play in the game and the other loss was to a highly ranked Maryland team who wanted revenge in what was a huge game for them but the game had a lot less meaning for the Badgers as they had all but wrapped up the Big Ten regular season title at that point of the year. The most impressive thing is that no Big Ten team came within five points of beating Wisconsin in any of the Badgers 19 conference wins this season.

Kentucky on the other hand actually had two very close calls in the SEC this year, winning one game by just three points and getting another victory by only two points overall. There’s no doubt that Kentucky wouldn’t be getting this sort of love from the media and public if they weren’t still undefeated. It’s unlikely that the Wildcats would still have zero losses this year if they had played against the 37th toughest non-conference schedule and then had to also play 21 more games against arguably the top conference in CBB which is the exact type of schedule that Wisconsin has faced this season. There’s no questioning this Kentucky squad is very good but they are also overvalued and in a big way by the betting public especially so in this tournament. In their four games against the spread during this year’s NCAA tournament, Wildcat bettors have cashed just one ticket against the spread. In fact it’s been just one point spread cover the last six NCAA tournament games if you go back to their last two games played last season. A lot of Kentucky’s reputation this season has been built on some of the beatings they’ve put on teams but when you look closely you notice that a lot of those wins came in games against average teams or worse as the Wildcats are just 3-7 against the number their last ten games when facing a team with win percentage above .600.

This should be a great game that I expect to be very close. Every point will be huge in this contest so getting this many points here feels like a gift. Take Wisconsin plus the points in this one.