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Baltimore ML +139 (Game 1) Really a bad spot for Chicago as they fly in from Toronto, play 2 in Baltimore today, then go to Houston. As for Baltimore going up against Chris Sale, the O's have been a tough team at home this year, hitting .277 at home and averaging over 5 runs/gm in Camden Yards this season. White Sox are averaging fewer than 4 runs/game on the road. Plus, the O's have done a decent job of hitting Sale in the past. Meanwhile, Tyler Wilson makes his first career start, and he gets to do so against the lowest scoring team in the AL. The Sox have had a bit of an offensive explosion the past two games, but I don't think that lasts. O's get it done here.
SD/Pit Over 6.5 I really really want to take Pittsburgh in this game and I may end up doing so. In the meantime, SD starter Ian Kennedy has an 8.15 ERA at home this season in what is perhaps the friendliest pitcher's park in all of baseball. And Pittsburgh is starting a pitcher with a 1.37 ERA? Why not jump on Pittsburgh? The one fly in the ointment is that Kennedy, for all his numbers, has shut down RH hitters this season (they are hitting .200 against him, lefties .329). And Pittsburgh has a roster full of RH hitters. I think they have 2 LH on their roster and one switch hitter. In other words, we might not see the offensive explosion from Pittsburgh today that one would expect to see. And SD has done a decent job of getting to Burnett in the past several seasons. So, Pittsburgh scores 3 or 4 runs instead of 6 or 7. SD will still get their 3 on AJ. I see a mininmum score of 4-3.
Boston has lost 56 of the last 94 games when the line posted is between -100 to -150 and they have lost 18 of the last 28 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Boston has lost 71 of the last 130 games when playing in the 1st half of the season and they have lost 53 of the last 93 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game.
Analysis:
PERSONAL PLAY on CLEVELAND/SEATTLE UNDER 7
Listed Pitchers
Bottom line is I have this game lined at 6.5 so I shall take the "very key total number" of 7 here. Both starters are rolling along and have had extremely good command over the last month. I also like the fact that both clubs are more potent offensively when they face pitching from the other side. These Mariners are dead last in .avg vs RH and 2nd to last in .OBP vs RH pitching. They face a dominating one who is thriving tonight, in Kluber. The fact of the matter is that these Indians are more potent vs RH pitching and add on the fact that they not only face a left-hander who has dominating stuff and is in peek form right now, they also have not seen Paxton before. Add this all up and I just don't see these clubs plating more than 7 runs this evening & I am on the UNDER here.
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