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Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with the Pirates on Wednesday and likes the A’s on Thursday.
The deficit is 377 sirignanos. -
KING CREOLE
4☆ Cavs/Warriors UNDER
..."squares" on the OVER, but line has dropped = "smart money" on the UNDERComment
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RIVER CITY SHARPS
Golf The Memorial Tournament
Tournament plays for the Memorial, which starts Thursday, Jun 04, 2015 in Columbus, OH
Matt Kuchar – 10/170
Jim Furyk – 10/200
Justin Thomas – 10/450
Steve Stricker – 10/700
Harris English – 10/800
Chesson Hadley – 10/1000
Furyk has good numbers there, rounding into form a bit as well…
I’m not sure how other guys do it, but my goal on Tournament plays for golf is that the total stake of my wagers (say $60 here, could be $600, doesn’t matter) equals roughly 1/3 of the winning result with the lowest odds player I have selected. So here, I have laid out $60 for six players and if Kuchar wins (my lowest odds), I win $170.
Not sure how/why I came to this theory, but it seems to work pretty well…so I stick with it! I use the same with NASCAR, although it is generally 3-4 drivers max. FWIW….Best of luck.Comment
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Game 1 Props – Best Bets
By VI News
Game 1 of the NBA Finals tips off Thursday and bettors will have plenty of opportunities to cash tickets on the best-of-seven series between the Warriors and Cavaliers.
Along with your basic side and total wagers, all sportsbooks are offering up “Proposition Wagers” or “Props” for each game of the series.
Similar to our predictions for each round, our trio of NBA experts will be offering up their Best Prop Bets for each game.
Based on a five-unit bankroll for each game, their top plays are listed below.
Pro capper – Chris David
3 Units – Over Tristan Thompson Total Rebounds 10.5 (-120)
A lot of bettors look at averages for prop wagers but I would advise to look at current form and then the particular numbers posted by the oddsmakers. Thompson is averaging 9.9 rebounds per game in the playoffs, which is up from his regular season numbers (8 RPG). However, his minutes and numbers have both gone up since Kevin Love went out with an injury. In the last 10 games for Cavs, he’s posted 10 or more boards in seven games and 11-plus five times. What I like about Thompson is that he’s been fearless on the road, especially in the last two series. During the five games versus the Bulls and Hawks, he posted 37 and 26 rebounds respectively for an average of 12.6 PPG. Lastly, I believe the layoff for Game 1 will hurt both teams offensively, which will lead to more rebounds and hopefully a winning ticket.
1 Unit – Under Timofey Mozgov Total Points & Rebounds 17.5 (-115)
This wager is practically tied into my Thompson investment since both players will be roaming the Cavaliers frontcourt. In 14 playoff games, Mozgov has surpassed this total five times and just three times since Love went out. His numbers are much better at home than on the road and I don’t see him getting as many minutes in this series unless center Andrew Bogut gets more time for Golden State and that hasn’t been the case lately.
1 Unit – Under Klay Thompson Total Made 3 Point Field Goals 2.5 (+130)
Despite the concussion issue, I expect Thompson to be fine for Game 1. With that being said, this wager is based strictly on tendencies for him at home in the playoffs rather than the injury. In eight games at Oracle Arena in the playoffs, he’s hit at least three 3-pointers in four games (3, 3, 3, 4) and a few barely got there. For whatever reason, his percentages have been down at home and grabbing the plus money is an added kicker.
Pro capper – Tony Mejia
2 Units – Over Stephen Curry Total made free throws 4.5 (+105)
His ability to get past Kyrie Irving and Matthew Dellavedova will be a huge factor here, since the Cavs are going to be looking to take away his perimeter looks and will over-play. He’ll get to the line within the flow of the game, is always a threat to be fouled on 3-pointers and may also have opportunities down the stretch in the fourth quarter to seal this one up. Curry would be 7-8 on this prop this postseason, but has topped seven free throws in games seven times. He’s shot double-figure free throws four times. Only Mike Conley and Tony Allen were able to stay in front of him effectively this postseason and there’s no one of that caliber in this series.
1 Unit – Under Kyrie Irving Total Made Points + Assists 26 (-120)
The Cavs would love to see him assert himself in this series opener to alleviate fears that he’s going to be a liability in this series, but they’re not going to fill his plate up with early responsibilities when the priority is to see how he handles moving around chasing Curry. If he’s off his game or less mobile than expected, he’s not going to get to these figures.
1 Unit – Over Tristan Thompson Total Rebounds 10.5 (-120)
What Chris David wrote. I’ll add that he’ll be able to float since it’s more likely that Mozgov is tying up Bogut, so he’ll lead the Cavs in rebounding in this series more often than not. Given the boundless energy
1 Unit – Over Iman Shumpert 3-point field goals 1.5 (-130)
Expect him to be on the floor more than J.R. Smith in this Game 1. Unless he goes Game 7 John Starks on us, he’ll have a host of opportunities to knock this out and has been aggressive and effective over the past two series in taking his looks. He’s averaged six 3-pointers per game over the last 10 (EC Semis & ECF), hitting 23 (38 pct.) and would have won this wager six of 10 times. Look for him to knock down a couple.
Pro capper – Kevin Rogers
3 Units – Under Kyrie Irving Total Points & Assists 26 (-120)
It may seem too easy to take this prop, but until the Cavaliers’ point guard proves he’s healthy, there’s no reason to think Irving is going to blow up in the opener. Irving scored 16 points and dished out five assists in just 22 minutes of the series clincher against Atlanta after missing two games. However, Irving never produced more than six assists in any of his 12 playoff games, as winning this prop would likely mean he would have to score at least 20 points. Since Game 3 of the conference semifinals against the Bulls, Irving put up over 16 points just once in his last six games.
1 Unit – Under Stephen Curry Total Made 3 Point Field Goals 5.5 (-200)
The league MVP had a strong series from behind the arc against the Rockets in the Western Conference Finals, but Curry is facing a much better defense in this round. Cleveland led all playoff teams with a .281 defensive three-point field goal percentage, while limiting Atlanta to 10-of-49 in two road victories in the East Finals. At home in the playoffs, Curry hit five three-pointers or less in six of eight contests at Oracle Arena.
1 Unit – Over LeBron James Total Made 3 Point Field Goals 1.5 (-115)
James has been dreadful from long distance in the playoffs, drilling just 12-of-68 three-point attempts. So why take the ‘over’ on this prop? The odds are -115 each way and James will definitely get looks, attempting at least five treys in nine playoff games. Asking James to hit just two at his price isn’t asking a lot, as you have the entire game to cash this prop as opposing to limiting yourself early if James knocks down a pair of three-pointers.Comment
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Brady Kannon
Golf The Memorial Tournament
Full Tournament Head to Head Match Up plays..
Brooks Koepka (-110) over Ben Martin
Chris Kirk (EVEN) over Kevin NaComment
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PREDICTION MACHINE – NBA FINALS PREVIEW
2015 NBA Finals – Odds to win the title.
The NBA Finals begin on June 4th. The championship will feature the league MVP, Stephen Curry, against the four-time MVP LeBron James. Cleveland is seeking its first NBA title while Golden State has been in a championship drought since 1975.
Before the NBA Playoffs began, we projected the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers to meet in the NBA Finals 19.0% of the time, which was the most likely finals matchup. The Warriors were our most likely champion winning the NBA Title 30.0% of the time in our simulations.
While we could not foresee the season-ending injury to Kevin Love, the suspension of JR Smith, the possible concussion of Klay Thompson or the nagging knee/ankle injury of Kyrie Irving, we can account for these injuries, roster changes and even how team depth charts have been utilized throughout the postseason to produce new projections for this specific series. Updating all numbers, the Golden State Warriors should be the favorites, but not quite as significant as the sportsbooks in Las Vegas would suggest.
In 50,000 simulations of the NBA Finals, Golden State wins over Cleveland 68.3% of the time. The most likely scenario (as seen below) is a five game series won by the Warriors who have home court advantage and would close out that series in front of the home crowd at Roarcle. The current consensus lines have Golden State as a -240 favorite to win the series and Cleveland at +190. To be comfortable wagering on either side, one would have to be at least 70.6% confident in the Warriors at -240 or at 34.5% confident in the Cavs at +190. In other words, this series is not bettable and there is no value in backing either team to win the title.
In our simulations we assume that Kyrie Irving is fully healthy, having eight days off between games should go a long way to calming the tendinitis he was suffering from in the conference finals. The Cavs will need their young star to shine if they are going to upset the favored Warriors. Cleveland is most likely to win the series in six games. This means LeBron and company will need to win on the road, a tall task. The Warriors only lost two homes games during the regular season and one (vs. Memphis) in the playoffs.
Neither team is likely to sweep the other. There is a 58.0% chance that the series goes at least six games and a 28.2% chance the series gets to a decisive Game 7.
Here are the results of the 2015 Warriors-Cavaliers NBA Finals played 50,000 times:
Region Team ♦ In 4 ♦ In 5 ♦ In 6 ♦ In 7
Eastern Cleveland ♦ 3.7 ♦ 5.8 ♦ 12.5 ♦ 9.7
Western Golden State ♦ 11.4 ♦ 21.1% ♦ 17.3 ♦ 18.5Comment
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Ultra Sports MLB
3* St Louis
3* Kansas CityComment
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MLB
National League
Cubs @ Nationals
Arrieta is 1-3, 4.93 in his last six starts.
Gonzalez is 1-0, 6.65 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.
Cubs lost six of last eight games with Washington, with last four going under total; they're 3-6 in last nine games overall. Seven of last eight Cub games stayed under. Washington lost five of last six games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
Reds @ Phillies
DeSclafani is 1-0, 2.08 in his last two starts; three of his last four went under.
Harang is 0-2, 3.50 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under.
Reds lost five of last six games in Philly; six of last seven series games went over total. Cincinnati five of last six went over total. Phillies lost seven of last nine games, but they won last two; four of their last six stayed under.
Mets @ Diamondbacks
Mets lost four of last five Harvey starts; he is 0-2, 5.29 in his last three road starts. Four of his last six starts stayed under the total.
Hellickson is 2-0, 3.38 in his last four starts; four of his last six went over.
Mets won six of last eight games with Arizona; road team won seven of the eight games. NY lost four of last six games; five of those six went over total. Arizona won four of last six games; over is 5-0-1 in those six.
Cardinals @ Dodgers
Wacha is 2-1, 2.92 in his last four starts.
Frias is 1-2, 5.87 in his last four starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten.
Dodgers are 21-7 at home, St Louis is 13-11 on road. LA lost four of last five games with Cardinals; last six series games stayed under. St Louis won eight of last ten games; six of its last seven stayed under. Dodgers are 3-5 in their last eight games.
American League
A's @ Tigers
Hahn is 1-4, 5.42 in his last seven starts; five of the seven went over.
Greene is 0-2, 8.56 in his last three starts; four of his last six went under.
Oakland won eight of last 11 games but lost six of last nine games vs Detroit- six of last seven stayed under. Tigers lost last six games, outscored by 37-14; seven of their last nine stayed under.
Orioles @ Astros
Chen is 0-3, 4.15 in his last four starts; under is 5-0-1 in his last six.
Keuchel is 2-1, 1.88 in his last three starts; they all stayed under.
Orioles are 4-9 in last 13 games overall; nine of those 13 stayed under. O's lost four of last five games with Houston; eight of last eleven series games stayed under. Astros won four of last five games (under 4-1).
Twins @ Red Sox
Milone returns from AAA to make first start since April 27; he is 2-1, 4.76 in his four starts, with last three going over.
Wright is 1-2, 4.24 in his three starts (over 2-1).
Home side won last nine of last ten Minnesota-Boston games (under 7-3); Twins won eight of last 11 games- four of last seven went over. Red Sox lost seven of last ten games, with five of last seven staying under.
White Sox @ Rangers
White Sox are 3-1 when Rodon starts (1-0, 4.43); three of four went over.
Gallardo is 2-0, 3.00 in his last two starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Chicago lost three of its last four games with Texas (over 5-2-1 in last eight); Rangers won four of last five games overall. White Sox are 5-3 in their last eight games overall; four of last six went over.
Indians @ Royals
Bauer is 2-1, 1.53 in his last four starts, all of which stayed under.
Young is 2-1, 2.28 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
Cleveland lost seven of last 11 games with KC; eight of last ten series games went over the total. Indians won five of last seven games overall; four of their last five stayed under. Royals lost six of last eight games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
Rays @ Mariners
Former Mariner Ramirez is 3-1, 3.13 in his last four starts.
Elias is 2-1, 2.49 in his last four starts; his last seven stayed under.
Tampa Bay lost last six games with Seattle; road team won eight of last nine series games, with seven of last nine staying under. Rays won four of last five games; over is 3-0-1 in their last four. Mariners lost their last five games- they traded for Mark Trumbo last night. M's scored 12 runs in last five games.
Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Chi-Wsh-- Arrieta 5-5; Gonzalez 7-3
Cin-Phil-- DeSclafani 5-5; Harang 5-6
NY-Az-- Harvey 6-4; Hellickson 4-6
StL-LA-- Wacha 9-1; Frias 3-3
A's-Det-- Hahn 2-8; Greene 6-5
Balt-Hst-- Chen 5-5; Keuchel 9-2
Min-Bos-- Milone 2-2; Wright 1-2
Chi-Tex-- Rodon 3-1; Gallardo 5-6
Cle-KC-- Bauer 5-5; Young 4-1
TB-Sea-- Ramirez 4-2; Elias 2-5
Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Chi-Wsh-- Arrieta 4-10; Gonzalez 1-10
Cin-Phil-- DeSclafani 1-10; Harang 2-11
NY-Az-- Harvey 3-10; Hellickson 5-10
StL-LA-- Wacha 3-10; Frias 3-6
A's-Det-- Hahn 4-10; Greene 3-11
Balt-Hst-- Chen 3-10; Keuchel 2-11
Min-Bos-- Milone 2-4; Wright 1-3
Chi-Tex-- Rodon 0-4; Gallardo 5-11
Cle-KC-- Bauer 1-10; Young 0-5
TB-Sea-- Ramirez 2-6; Elias 3-7Comment
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StatFox Super Situations
NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play On - Any team (CLEVELAND) average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games
128-77 since 1997. ( 62.4% | 43.3 units )
7-6 this year. ( 53.8% | 0.4 units )
NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play Against - Underdogs vs the money line (CLEVELAND) off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days
51-14 since 1997. ( 78.5% | 29.5 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -1.2 units )
NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a win by 10 points or more
66-31 since 1997. ( 68.0% | 31.9 units )
7-4 this year. ( 63.6% | 2.6 units )Comment
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StatFox Super Situations
MLB | CLEVELAND at KANSAS CITY
Play Against - Road teams (CLEVELAND) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL
177-96 since 1997. ( 64.8% | 63.6 units )
3-6 this year. ( 33.3% | -5.3 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | BALTIMORE at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 22-9 (+13.7 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.
The average score was: HOUSTON (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.5)Comment
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Hondo
Hondo walking the Wacha
Cy Kluber threw in another clunker Wednesday night, taking the loss in Kansas City to expand Hondo’s filthy figure to a shabby 785 schoendiensts.
Thursday night: Mr. Aitch expects Wacha to resume his winning ways — 10 units on the Cards’ ace to prevail in his rematch with Frias and the Dodgers.Comment
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RIVER CITY SHARPS
St. Louis Cardinals (+100)
Chicago White Sox (+115)
Cleveland Indians (+105)
Cubs/Nationals – Over 7 (-110)Comment
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EZWINNERS
MLB
2* (969) Rays +$116Comment
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Hall of Fame Picks
Houston Astros ML (-153)Comment
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