9-27-15

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Gold Medal Club NFL Selections

482 Arizona -6.5
486 Miami -3
488 Detroit +3

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Kris Barr
Patriots
Texans
Seahawks
Broncos

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Jason Sample:
Bills TT O19.5
Colts/Titans O45.5
Packers TT028 (-105) (2x)

Already sent:

Ravens -2.5 (2x)
Vikings -2
GB/Rams tease
Raiders +4

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StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | MINNESOTA at PHOENIX
Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points revenging a road loss versus opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

WNBA | NEW YORK at INDIANA
Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (INDIANA) after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 75 points or more
128-30 since 1997. ( 81.0% | 0.0 units )
7-4 this year. ( 63.6% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | MINNESOTA at PHOENIX
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games
121-66 since 1997. ( 64.7% | 48.4 units )
7-7 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.7 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

CFL | MONTREAL at SASKATCHEWAN
Play On - Any team vs the money line (SASKATCHEWAN) off an upset loss as a home favorite, with a losing record
61-47 since 1997. ( 56.5% | 0.0 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

NFL | DENVER at DETROIT
Play Against - Favorites (DENVER) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game
93-48 since 1997. ( 66.0% | 40.2 units )

NFL | PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS
Play Against - All teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (PITTSBURGH) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more, in the first half of the season
35-14 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.4% | 0.0 units )

NFL | PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS
Play Under - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total excellent passing team from last season - averaged 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

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MLB

National League

Pirates @ Cubs
Burnett is 1-0, 4.50 in his last three starts (over 6-1 last seven).

Arrieta is 9-0, 0.84 in his last ten starts (under 5-0 last five).

Pirates lost three of last five games against Chicago (under 7-3 last ten); they won last eight games overall, scoring 47 runs (under 6-2 last eight). Cubs lot their last three games (under 5-1 last six); they're in playoffs, too.

Phillies @ Nationals
Harang is 1-1, 6.18 in his last five starts (over 5-0 last five).

Gonzalez is 2-1, 2.74 in his last four starts (over 8-2 last ten).

Phillies lost nine of last 12 games with Washington; four of last six went over total. Philly lost nine of last 11 games (under 6-2 last eight). Nationals lost four of last five games, scoring 12 runs (over 6-3-1 last ten).

Braves @ Marlins
Miller is 0-7, 6.08 in his last seven starts (over 3-1 last four).

Koehler is 2-1, 3.24 in his last four starts (over 3-1).

Atlanta lost last six games with Miami (over 6-2-1 last nine); Braves won five of last eight games (under 5-4 last nine). Marlins won their last four games (over 6-3 last nine).

Mets @ Reds
deGrom is 1-2, 5.32 in his last four starts (over 5-1 last six).

Sampson is 1-3, 8.88 in his last six starts (over 5-1 last six).

Mets clinched NL East yesterday; they won 11 of last 13 games with Reds; last four series games went over. New York won last three games, scoring 28 runs; six of last seven went over total. Reds lost their last seven games (over 9-3 last twelve).

Dodgers @ Rockies
Wood is 1-1, 1.26 in his last two starts (under 5-2 last seven).

Rusin is 0-2, 10.38 in his last three starts (over 3-1 last four).

Rockies lost five of last seven games, allowing 53 runs; seven of last 11 went over the total. Colorado won seven of last ten games against the Dodgers. LA is 2-6 in last eight games not started by Greinke/Kershaw; four of their last six games overall went over the total.

Brewers @ Cardinals
Cravy is 0-5, 9.00 in his last five starts (under 3-2).

Lackey is 2-0, 1.29 in his last three starts (over 6-3 last nine).

Milwaukee lost nine of last eleven games with St Louis (over 4-2-1 in last seven). Brewers lost nine of last 12 games (under 3-1-1 last five). Cardinals won six of last seven games (under 4-2-1 last seven).

Diamondbacks @ Padres
Godley is 4-1, 3.38 in his five MLB starts (over 3-2).

Shields is 3-0, 4.12 in his last three starts (over 10-0 last ten).

San Diego won five of last eight games with Arizona; five of last seven in series went over the total. D'backs lost three of last four games;four of last six went over total. Padres won four of last six games; six of their last eight games went over the total.


American League

White Sox @ Bronx
Johnson is 3-0, 3.52 in his four starts (over 2-1-1).

Severino is 4-1, 3.06 in his last six starts.

White Sox lost nine of last 11 games with Bronx; four of last seven series games went over the total. Chicago is 4-7 in last 11 games; six of last seven stayed under. New York won five of its last eight games; under is 10-3 in their last thirteen games.

Rays @ Blue Jays
Andriese is 2-1, 2.91 in his last four starts, last of which was July 7; five of his last six starts went over the total.

Buehrle is 0-1, 6.28 in his last three starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten.

Toronto won five of its last six games with Tampa Bay (under 7-2-1 last ten); Jays are 7-3 in last ten games (under 6-3 last nine). Rays won four of last seven games overall (under is 9-5 last 14 games).

Twins @ Tigers
Santana is 4-1, 1.50 in his last five starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine.

Wolf is 0-2, 8.50 in his last four starts; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine.

Twins lost three of last four games with Detroit (over 4-3-1 last eight); they lost seven of last 11 games overall (under 5-3 last eight). Detroit won seven of last 11 games (over 6-4 last ten).

Orioles @ Red Sox
Jiminez is 3-0, 3.80 in his last four starts (over 5-3 in last eight).

Owens is 1-1, 2.66 in his last three starts (over 7-2 in his MLB starts).

Baltimore lost last three games with Boston (over 5-4 last eight), getting shut out by Boston last two days. Orioles won five of last nine games overall (under 3-1-1 last five). Red Sox lost three of last five games; six of their last seven stayed under.

Indians @ Royals
Salazar is 1-2, 5.09 in his last four starts (under 4-1 last five).

Young is 1-2, 5.11 in his last five starts (under 4-1-2 in last seven); this is his first start since July 27.

Royals are 3-5 in last eight games; seven of their last nine games went over the total. Cleveland won five of last seven games vs KC; three of last five stayed under. Indians are 5-3 in last eight games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine.

Rangers @ Astros
Perez is 1-2, 5.73 in his last four starts (under 5-2 last seven).

Keuchel is 1-2, 6.38 in his last three starts (over 5-1 in his last six).

Rangers won eight of last nine games with Houston- over is 4-0-1 in last five. Texas won ten of last 13 games overall-- over is 9-1-1 in last 11. Astros are 4-8 in their last twelve games; over is 7-3-1 in their last eleven.

Mariners @ Angels
Iwakuma is 4-1, 2.01 in his last five starts (under 3-1 last four).

Weaver is 0-2, 6.97 in his last two starts (under 3-1 last four).

Angels are 7-4 in last 11 games with Seattle (over 5-3-1 last nine). Mariners are 2-5 in last seven games (over 5-2). Angels won seven of their last nine (over four of last six). games overall


Interleague

Giants @ A's
Heston is 0-3, 4.63 in his last five starts (under 3-1 last four).

Nolin is 1-1, 4.57 in his four starts (under 3-1)

Giants won five of last seven games with Oakland; under is 4-4-2 in last ten games in series. A's are 4-8 in last 12 games; six of last seven Oakland games went over total. Giants lost five of their last eight games (over 4-0 last four).


Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Pitt-Chi-- Burnett 13-11; Arrieta 23-8 (15-1 last 16)
Phil-Wsh-- Harang 10-17; Gonzalez 15-13
Atl-Mia-- Miller 10-21 (0-7 last 7); Koehler 13-16
NY-Cin-- deGrom 18-10; Sampson 3-6 (0-4 last 4)
LA-Col-- Wood 12-19/4-6; Rusin 6-13
Mil-StL-- Cravy 0-6; Lackey 17-14
Az-SD-- Godley 4-1; Shields 16-16 (3-0 last 3)

TB-Tor-- Andreise 4-3; Buehrle 16-13 (0-3 last 3)
Chi-NY-- Johnson 3-1; Severino 5-4
Min-Det-- Santana 8-7 (5-1 last 6); Wolf 2-4
Balt-Bos-- Jimenez 16-13; Owens 3-5
Cle-KC-- Salazar 17-11; Young 10-6
Tex-Hst-- Perez 7-5; Keuchel 21-10
Sea-LA-- Iwakuma 11-7 (11-3 last 14); Weaver 10-14

SF-A's-- Heston 15-14 (1-7 last 8); Nolin 2-2


Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Pitt-Chi-- Burnett 6-24; Arrieta 4-31
Phil-Wsh-- Harang 10-27; Gonzalez 2-28
Atl-Mia-- Miller 7-31; Koehler 8-29
NY-Cin-- deGrom 8-28; Sampson 5-9
LA-Col-- Wood 10-31; Rusin 8-19 (4 of last 5)
Mil-StL-- Cravy 1-5; Lackey 9-31
Az-SD-- Godley 1-5; Shields 11-32 (4 of last 4)

TB-Tor-- Andreise 0-7; Buehrle 14-29
Chi-NY-- Johnson 0-4; Severino 2-9
Min-Det-- Santana 2-15; Wolf 2-6
Balt-Bos-- Jimenez 8-29; Owens 3-8
Cle-KC-- Salazar 7-28; Young 1-16
Tex-Hst-- Perez 2-12; Keuchel 5-31
Sea-LA-- Iwakuma 4-18; Weaver 7-24

SF-A's-- Heston 6-29; Nolin 1-4


Umpires
Pitt-Chi-- Four of last five Drake games went over.
Phil-Wsh-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten BWelke games.
NY-Cin-- Underdogs are 14-9 in last 23 TBarrett games.
Atl-Mia-- Favorites are 15-5-in last twenty Bellino games.
Mil-StL-- Under is 12-6-1 in last nineteen May games.
LA-Col-- Home side won all three Scheurwater games.
Az-SD-- Three of last four Johnson games went over.

Chi-NY-- Six of last seven O'Nora games stayed under.
TB-Tor-- Three of last four Culbreth games went over.
Balt-Bos-- Underdogs won two of three Torres games.
Min-Det-- Five of last six Fagan games went over total.
Cle-KC-- Last four Hickox games went over the total.
Tex-Hst-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Carapazza games.
Sea-LA-- Six of last seven Hudson games stayed under.

SF-A's-- Last five Wolf games went over (underdogs 4-0 last four).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | MILWAUKEE at ST LOUIS
Play Against - Home teams (ST LOUIS) with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts
114-107 since 1997. ( 51.6% | 55.0 units )
5-9 this year. ( 35.7% | -3.6 units )


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | CLEVELAND at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 67-38 (+30.1 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.3) , OPPONENT (3.6)

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty split with Navy (-7) and Purdue (+4 1/2) on Saturday and likes the Texans on Sunday.

The deficit is 604 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Pats where it’s at for Hondo

Hondo suffered the dreaded double-flusher Saturday night, swirling down the drain with the Reds and Oregon to raise his deficit to 1,622 hannahs.

Sunday: Mr. Aitch is pumped up for a 20-unit investment on the Deflatriots over the Jags.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole NFL 9/27




3* Denver
3* Under Dallas

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Bookieshunter
3* Buf +3
3* Ind -3
2* Car -8
2* Min -2
2* Ari -6.5
2* Un44 Atl/Dal

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Amazing Wager NFL picks
Arizona -6.5
Green Bay -6.5
Pittsburgh -1.5
NY Jets -2
Denver -3
Cincinnati +2.5
St. Louis/Pittsburgh Over 47.5
Dallas/Atlanta Over 45
NY Giants/Washington Over 44 (W)
Carolina/New Orleans Over 43
Miami/Buffalo Under 43
NY Jets/Philadelphia Under 46

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Root w/ Write ups

Sunday, September 27, 2015
Inner Circle
Cowboys (+1½) over Falcons
12:00 PM (EDT) -- AT&T Stadium
Inner Circle---Dallas ( Shocker of Month) Let''s focus on what it will take to win this game at home in front of 80,000 Cowboys fans. First, the 80,000 fans will rally this initial game for an injured Tony Romo. The players will put out an extraordinary effort for this game as they too will want to do their part and not let the team down. The offensive line will be like the Great Wall of China for this game. Holes as wide as the Rio Grande will open. Brandon Weeden will have a full 3 seconds to pass. The Cowboys defense will contain Matt Ryan who''s roadshow game is below average. Atlanta''s running back, Tevin Coleman suffered a broken rib and may not play. So the key is containing Julio Jones. That''s been the focus this week as much as the reps that QB Weeden is taking in practice. The effort and emotions in this game will be all that is needed to shock the betting public. TAKE DALLAS


Millionaires
Dolphins (-3) over Bills
4:25 PM (EDT) -- Sun Life Stadium
Millionaires---Miami It''s hard to imagine the pressure that Rex Ryan must feel. First he talks big and has trouble delivering. Secondly, he got blown out last week at home against his most bitter foe. Thirdly, the Jets are winning and finally, he has to play a division game for their first road game vs Miami. Ryan Tannehill is coming into his own. He 2-0 against the Bills and this game and situation sets up well for the Dolphins. There won''t be an over abundance of scoring and that favors the Fish. TAKE MIAMI


No Limit
49ers (+6½) over Cardinals
1:05 PM (EDT) -- University of Phoenix Stadium
No Limit---San Francisco Carson Palmer has won 8 straight games and is looking for a 3-0 start. But the Oddsmakers are not giving away free money. They stacked the deck with the spread. The 49ers were last seen getting defeated by the Steelers while Arizona was winning at Chicago. All the talk is on Arizona''s 2-0 start, how great Palmer is, the rejuvenated Larry Fitzpatrick and the Zona "D". It''s as if the game has already been played and the sports books are paying off the bets. Did you know that Kaepernick has a 9-1 TD to INT ratio and has won 4 of 5 vs Arizona? And 49ers RB Carlos Hyde was pulled last week as a precautionary measure in Pittsburgh but will be ready today. This is a Contrarian play at it''s finest, something that is hard for the betting public to grasp. TAKE SAN FRANCISCO


Perfect Play
Eagles (+2½) over Jets
1:00 PM (EDT) -- MetLife Stadium
Perfect Play---Philadelphia Prior to opening up this years season, there''s more than a few that would have pegged the Jets to be 0-2 and the Eagles 2-0 after week 2. But hold all bets! Let''s make a case that the Jets beat Cleveland and a Indy team that had no play in themselves. The Eagles played at Atlanta and vs a good Cowboys team. So their backs are against the wall. Chip Kelly''s offense needs to step it up a few notches for week 3. This week is their most important week of their season. An 0-3 start is death to their team. The players all know it and have the talent to do something about it. The key is to limit the Jets defense from getting anymore of their league leading turnovers. Cornerback Darelle Revis is questionable with a groin injury which could be monumental. The key is the O-line for Philadelphia. They have played uninspired football and the results show. In last weeks game, DeMarrco Murray had two yards on 13 attempts against Dallas. It might be time for a pass first game plan to set up the run. Whatever they decide, the players have said all week that they will not go to 0-3. It''s all about effort and desire. TAKE PHILADELPHIA


Pinnacle
Rams (+1) over Steelers
12:00 PM (EDT) -- Edward Jones Dome
Pinnacle ---St Louis ( NFC Game of September) Le''Veon Bell is back and will split time with DeAngelo Williams as Pittsburgh looks to up the ante on the opposing defenses. That may work out well down the road but a long layoff and now getting hit and hurt in game time conditions takes time. Handling the ball while getting hit leads to fumbles. And it makes no difference if the Steelers score by the run or with Ben''s arm. The last 2 seasons, Ben has been sacked 75 times with that being the key to the Rams win. Turnovers and sacks by a great St Louis defense is the difference maker here. The Rams are tied for second in the NFL with eight sacks. Secondly, Nick Foles was ineffective last year with Chip Kelly''s offense but loves the change in St Louis. The Steelers secondary lost some key personnel and it will show. Ryan Shazier, the Steelers best LB, will sit out Sunday with a shoulder injury. Additionally, nose tackle Daniel McCullers is also out, while cornerback Cortez Allen is questionable for the Steel Curtain. The road traveled for Ben and Company is a bumpy one and this game should not be a barn burner. TAKE ST LOUIS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Buffalo +3