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Dave Essler | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 18 2015 1:00PM
252 CLE4.5(-110) Greek vs 251 DEN triple-dime bet
Analysis: As I said earlier, I'd play this all the way down to +3 and have no reason to believe that the Browns don't win this game. First of all it's a fade of Denver to some extent, given that they scored exactly 16 points at Oakland and not with an offensive touchdown. I am actually a buyer into the theory that Manning has no arm left - shoulder, neck, or whatever. Being a NE fan I've watched SO many of his games, and watching LAST year I could see him "off" - and this year it's been even more so, IMO. Not having Welker in the slot has seriously cut down options. No more Eric Decker for the OTHER third down option. However, they don't SUCK - they're just not explosive. Even their rushing attack is not consistent - Hillman had his 100+ yard day against the Vikings, but he next best effort has been 41 yards. More pressure on Manning. I watched the Browns play ‹ San Diego - almost every play - their offense is just getting BETTER - and they're confident. McCown has thrown for 340+ yards in all three games. They've got options - they've had three different leading receivers in five games. They lost that Chargers' game by three, late, and beat the Ravens in OT last week. Both of those games were on the ROAD - so now they come home to a fan base, although always hopeful - that should be quite into this game. Sunday is also supposed to be breezy (15 MPH winds) after some rain and wind on Saturday (nice walk through weather) and that kind of weather should clearly effect the weaker-armed Manning more than the Browns. Cleveland is averaging 5.9 yards per play (Denver is 4.8) - Cleveland has a MUCH better third down conversion rate, and the Browns defense is allowing only a 59% completion percentage. And, for as good as Denver's defense is statistically, they've not faced an elite offense. I am not saying the Browns offense IS elite, but it's as good or better (right now) than most teams they've faced. Denver has already won three road games, and more power to them if they win a fourth - but that's just not easy to do in the NFL - and this should simply be another last possession game. Give me the home team and points in what should be a low scoring game.
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