Tweet
Spartan
3* chargers
3* chargers
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Burns
Cust app - jets/oak under
Gow - dall
Best bet - cle
Blue marlin - ramsComment
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Top NFL Public Bets
#1 261 Arizona Cardinals 84%
#2 269 New York Jets 76%
#3 273 Green Bay Packers 75%
#4 271 Seattle Seahawks 74%
#5 253 Minnesota Vikings 70%
#6 256 Atlanta Falcons 69%
#7 263 Cincinnati Bengals 65%
#8 251 Detroit Lions 60%
#9 260 St. Louis Rams 58%
#10 276 Carolina Panthers 58%Comment
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Philly Seal
$300 NY Jets/Oakland Over 44
$300 Seattle/Dallas Over 41
$300-Minnesota VikingsComment
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Point Train's NFL Best Bet - Sunday, November 1
8-Unit - #273 Green Bay (-3) over Denver – 7:30 PM CSTComment
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Maximum Football - Sunday NFL Over/Under Game of the Week - Nov. 1
3* #253/254 OVER 42 Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears 12:00 PM CTComment
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Gold Medal Club NFL Selections
254 Chicago
256 Atlanta
264 Pittsburgh
272 Dallas
275 IndianapolisComment
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Ben Burns
Div total/yr - Houston/teen underComment
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NFL: NORTHCOAST ECONOMY CLUB SELECTIONS
1. Minnesota E TOP SELECTION
2. New Orleans -3
3. Cincinnati +1
4. Baltimore -3
5. Seattle -6Comment
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Comment
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ROBERT FERRINGO
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
1-Unit Play. Take #251 Detroit (+5.5) over Kansas City (9:30 a.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
I think that this is too many points for Kansas City to be laying out right now. This Detroit team is a disaster. But they aren’t as bad as their record suggests because their schedule has been an absolute meat grinder. I know Kansas City has played some very strong teams as well. But they’ve been every bit as unimpressive as the Lions have so its tough to say that they are going to go over to London and score a win by a touchdown or more. Detroit has the experience of coming to London and winning a game last year and that familiarity should help them this time around. Neither defense is anything to write home about. But I expect a spirited effort from the Lions offense, which just fired its offensive coordinator (finally) and should be ready to cut loose a bit. Detroit has enough playmakers to keep this one interesting and I feel like there is a big enough window here where even if the Lions lose this game late they can still make the points hold up ahead of some key numbers.
5-Unit Play. Take #258 New Orleans (-3) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
I think that this is a great spot for the Saints to railroad the Giants. First of all, we have a team with a losing record favored over a team with a winning record. This late in the season that’s a red flag to me. The public is actually split almost 50-50 on this game. But that tells me that the Saints are getting enough respect. The Giants are coming off a pair of emotional divisional games. Now they have to go on the road to take on a nondivisional opponent. And they are wandering down into a place where they have gotten their ass absolutely kicked in their last few trips. They lost 49-24 in 2011 and 48-27 in 2009. If you add in New York’s trip in 2003 (45-7) then the Saints have beaten the Giants three straight times in the Superdome by an average score of 47-19. The Giants are not a good team. They play in a garbage division and they have not looked good in their wins over bad teams. The Giants were outgained by 170 yards and needed a pick-six and a kickoff return touchdown to beat a pathetic Dallas team led by loser Matt Cassel. The week before they were outgained by 180 in a blowout loss to a very mediocre Eagles team. The week before that the Giants barely eked by a bad San Francisco team at home in a nationally televised spot. So this team hasn’t been setting the world on fire. The Saints have finally given in and become a run-first club. They’ve run the ball nearly 75 times in the last two weeks: both wins. The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and I see this team regaining some of its home field edge, covering the spread in each of its last two games at home. It’s Halloween weekend and it’s in the Bayou. That good ju-ju will be working for the home team and I see this one as a 31-21 win for the Saints.
2-Unit Play. Take #259 San Francisco (+8.5) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
This is way too many points here. People need to slow down on the Rams. This is not a good football team. They are a mediocre defense and a bad offense. That’s it. St. Louis was fortunate to stay ahead of the number against the Browns last week. And that game – with the Browns off surface after back-to-back draining overtime games – was tailor-made for the Rams to beat the piss out of someone. Instead it was 10-6 late in the third quarter, with Cleveland having several big plays called back due to penalties. San Francisco has had extra time to prep for this one and they aren’t nearly as bad as they looked against a desperate, angry Seattle team last Thursday. The 49ers nearly won at New York, they did beat Minnesota, and they played Green Bay tough. Also, league-wide, underdogs of 7.0 or greater have gone 10-3 ATS over the last few weeks. So until I see the Rams go out and cover the spread in a game like this I’m betting that it’s not going to happen.
2-Unit Play. Take #263 Cincinnati (+1) over Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
5-Unit Play. Take #271 Seattle (-6) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
I think that this game has 34-10 written all over it. Dallas sucks. People need to just accept that. Last year was a complete and total aberration for this loser organization. The Cowboys don’t have half the talent people think they do, their coaching is a disaster, and they are one of the sloppiest and most incompetent teams in the league. Oh, and they have Matt Cassel quarterbacking. Cassel is a noodle-armed loser and hasn’t been a competent NFL quarterback in, oh, well, ever. It was embarrassing watching him try to throw the ball down the field against the Giants terrible defense last week. It will only be worse this week. Seattle has a big revenge motivation here after losing at home to the Cowboys last season. The Seahawks haven’t forgotten about that one. Also, everyone gets amped up to play the Cowboys and I expect a solid effort from the Seahawks here. Seattle has a bye week on deck so I expect them to max out, get back to .500, and then take two weeks to prep for a big three-game homestand. Seattle has had extra time to prepare for this game and they are still prepping for a second-rate Cowboys team. I know Dez Bryant is back. But the guy won’t be in full game shape; he hasn’t been able to run due to his broken foot. Seattle’s secondary is awesome and will be able to limit what Dez can do. Again, Dallas is a bunch of losers. They got hammered at home in the second half by Atlanta. They got hammered at home in the second half by New England. And now I think they are going to play tight for 30 minutes and then get run off their own turf in the second half by a very focused and motivated Seattle team. 34-10.
1-Unit Play. Take #253 Minnesota (+1) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take #261 Arizona (-5.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take #273 Green Bay (-2.5) over Denver (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
This Week’s Totals
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 50.5 – San Diego at Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 46.0 – Arizona at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 48.5 – Tampa Bay at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 39.5 – San Francisco at St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 41.0 – Seattle at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 45.5 – Green Bay at Denver (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)Comment
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ALLEN EASTMAN
3-Unit Play. Take #252 Kansas City (-5) over Detroit (9:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
I will go with the Chiefs in this game. I think that this team is better than its record shows. They won nine games last week and I think that Andy Reid will keep his players fighting. He could turn this season around. Detroit is a weak organization. They just fired their offensive coordinator and head coach Jim Caldwell could be next if this team gets blown out over in London. I think that blowout is going to happen. Detroit is in such disarray. Calvin Johnson is hurt and is only questionable for a Lions offense that is just No. 29 in the league in scoring. Kansas City has a major advantage with its defense and I think that the Chiefs pass rush is going to be able to force Matthew Stafford into a couple of turnovers. The Lions are allowing nearly 30 points per game and Kansas City will move the ball on the ground and through the air. There are too many things pointing toward the better-coached team here. The Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and they are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games in November. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with losing records and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. This line is going up because all the money coming in on the Chiefs. I think they win and win big.
6-Unit Play. Take #261 Arizona (-4.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
My systems really like Arizona in this one. This game is a mismatch and a more appropriate spread would have been closer to a touchdown. The Browns have lost four of their last five games. That includes an 18-point loss at St. Louis last week. Cleveland’s only win at home this year came over the lowly Titans. The Browns are just 28th in total defense and they have not been able to run or stop the run. Cleveland is No. 28 in rushing and last in the league in rush defense. Josh McCown hurt his shoulder and even though he will play he is not 100 percent. Arizona is one of the best teams in the NFL. They are in the Top 5 in both offense and defense and in the Top 10 in points per game and points allowed. The Cardinals are outscoring opponents by an average of 13.7 points per game. Arizona has dropped two straight games ATS. But they let Baltimore in the back door on Monday and that was a tough loss at the window. I don’t see that happening again here. The Cards have their bye next week. Bruce Arians will have this veteran team playing hard so that they can go into the break at 5-2 and in control of this division. Cleveland is not a good team and they will not be able to keep up. I see another Arizona blowout.
7-Unit Play. Take #263 Cincinnati (+1) over Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
The Bengals have a big advantage in this game. They are coming out of a bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for this important AFC North game. Pittsburgh had to travel last week to Kansas City, where they lost. The Steelers are getting Ben Roethlisberger back this week. But he has not gone through a full practice yet. There is still a chance he might not play. I think he will. But even if Big Ben comes back he could be rusty and going up against a defense that has been working toward this game for two weeks. That is a major advantage for the Bengals. Cincinnati’s offense is playing as well as anyone in the league. They are No. 3 in total yards and No. 3 in scoring with over 30 points per game. I don’t think that Pittsburgh’s banged up defense will be able to stop this Bengals team. Cincinnati already has road wins at Oakland, Baltimore and Buffalo. The Steelers already have home losses to Baltimore and New England. The Steelers are not in the Top 15 in yards or scoring and they are No. 24 in total defense. The numbers all clearly favor the Bengals in this one. The Bengals have covered six straight. Even though they have not had much luck in Pittsburgh I think they are going to get the road win here. Take Cincinnati.
5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 39.5 San Francisco at St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
Both defenses should control this game. This is a matchup of two of the worst offensive teams in football. Last week the 49ers only managed three points against Seattle’s struggling defense. The Rams only scored 24 points against a below average Cleveland defense. Both teams are going to try to control the clock and the game by running the ball. I think this will be a field position game and I can’t see either team’s offense exploding in this one. Colin Kaepernick was sacked six times by the Seahawks last Thursday. Now he will have to face St. Louis’ fearsome pass rush. The 49ers are No. 32 in the league in total yards and they are dead last in scoring with just 14.7 points per game! That is terrible! The Rams are not any better! St. Louis is No. 31 in total yards and No. 31 in points per game. That means that this is a matchup of statistically the worst two offenses in the entire NFL. That is why this total is so low and that is why this will be another low scoring game. The ‘under’ is 20-8 when the 49ers play teams in the NFC and the ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Rams’ last five overall.
4-Unit Play. Take #269 N.Y. Jets (-2.5) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
I will go with the Jets here. This team was very close to knocking off the unbeaten Patriots in Foxboro. New York has gotten back to fundamental football. They have a great defense and the running game has been a strength on offense. The Jets are in the Top 10 in total offense, rushing and scoring. They are in the Top 5 in all major stats on defense! This is a very well rounded team. Oakland played great in its win over rival San Diego last week. But I think that they will have a letdown here against a better Jets team. Oakland is just 3-13 ATS after a win and this is still a young Raiders team. They will be more up and down than the veteran Jets. Oakland is 3-3 on the season but they have been outscored on the year. They are 19-39 ATS in their last 58 games after covering the spread. This line opened as a ‘pick’ and the wise guys quickly took the Jets and this spread jumped up over two points. I am going to stay on the sharp side of this one and go with the better Jets team.
5-Unit Play. Take #276 Carolina (-6.5) over Indianapolis (8:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 2)
Last week I cashed an easy NFL 411 Play on the Panthers in a blowout win over Philadelphia.
My NFL 411 System didn’t produce this play this week. But I am still betting the Panthers again here and I think that this will be another blowout. The Colts are reeling right now. Andrew Luck is not healthy and not playing well. The Colts have the No. 32 defense in the NFL. There have been fights between the owner and GM and rumors that the coach is going to be fired. This whole organization is a mess right now. Carolina is the opposite. This team is undefeated and playing great football. They are riding high after that Sunday night win and now I think that the Panthers are going to be really excited for this Monday Night Football game in front of the home crowd. The Panthers are No. 6 in points per game and No. 6 in points allowed per game. They are getting it done on both sides of the ball. The Colts will not be strong enough to stop Carolina’s running game. And the Panthers defense will feed off the crowd and shut down this weak Colts offense. I have this one at 31-13 for the home team. Lay the points.Comment
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INDIAN COWBOY With Write-Ups
3-Unit Play. #254. Take Chicago Bears PK over Minnesota (Sunday @ 1pm est)
The Bears are favored here in some books and it surprises a lot of folks but why not. Since the return of Cutler this team has played better and its never a good thing to see the 65/35 split as the public favors the underdog. The Vikings have looked good as they sit at 4-2 but they face a Bears team who is at home, comes off a bye week where they nearly beat the Lions in a game that the Lions absolutely had to win after the Coach benched Stafford. They came all the way back in that game to nearly win. This team had beat Kansas City and Oakland prior to that and has covered 3 straight. Note the Vikings have consistently struggled against Chicago on the road as they are 1-6 in their last 7 meetings in Chicago, the home team is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings, this is a good public fade and the 2 games that Minnesota lost this year was against a strong defensive line such as San Francisco and Denver. We like Chicago to surprise here and get after Teddy whereas they score enough points to win this contest.
3-Unit Play. #264. Take Pittsburgh Steelers -1 over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday @ 1pm est)
Big Ben is back. This is good for any fantasy team that has Antonio Brown as they can finally get him involved in the offense once again after having Michael Vick in the mix and Landry Jones which goes to show how inept Pittsburgh is without their starting quarterback – though they did beat Arizona on two miracle passes by Jones for Touchdowns. But, per this game, with the Steelers coming off a loss to the Chiefs, desperately needing this game and actually favored here speaks volumes with Big Ben back. The Bengals have played phenomenally well this year, but this is a tough spot for them on the road against a hungry Steelers team who continue to play well off a loss under Tomlin. Remember, this is a team that nearly beat the Patriots which speaks volumes given how much the Patriots are running over others right now. The Bengals are 2-5 ATS against teams with a winning home record and this is the same Steelers that beat the Cardinals without their starting quarterback and Steelers are 4-0 ATS coming off a straight up loss.
6-Unit Play. #269. Take NY Jets -3 over Oakland Raiders (Sunday @ 4:05pm est)
Our top play this week is the New York Jets.
Lots of respect for the Raiders after they went into San Diego and beat the Chargers Outright. But the Chargers have 2 wins. Is it that impressive? This team also beat Baltimore which seemed very impressive at first, but now it seems nominal considering that Baltimore is having its worst season in franchise history with Harbaugh. So those wins look nominal at best now. The Jets are a 4 win team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Incredible. A strong defense that has showed its physical toughness and this team is Arizona up North it seems. The Jets have bounced back steadily after losses and it should be no surprise that as they come off a loss to the Patriots, they likely bounce-back in a positive way here. Note when this team lost to Philadelphia 17-24 in their next contest they bounced-back and beat Miami 27-14 as similar -2.5 favorites.
This team has done well off a loss and with Oakland overvalued here we like New York to step up defensively in particularly and run the ball effectively as they typically do. We like the Jets winning 30-13 as we love Amare Cooper but the Jets and company step up big time this weekend on the defensive front.
3-Unit Play. #271. Take Seattle Seahawks -6 over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)
These are the games the Seahawks like. The nation watches and this team shows up. Just like they did against San Fran in a similar situation, the Seahawks are a team that thrives on national attention and that’s how Pete Carroll likes it. This team is 3-4 and this might be his best coaching job yet as they desperately need this game to get to 4-4 and look for a positive 2nd half of the year. This team comes off an easy win over the Niners, indeed is a public favorite here but we’re not too concerned about that, faces a Dallas team that if they lose this game will be in full tank mode (and could very well draft a quarterback for a handcuff on Romo in their next draft) and this is a Seahawks team that should have beaten the Panthers frankly and should be sitting at 5-3 after this win. In fact, while we’re at it, they collapsed against the Bengals and that would have allowed them to be 6-2 and if they had Cam earlier in the season before the holdout this team very well could be 7-1 as they would have lost against Green Bay regardless in our opinion. That just goes to show you how much this team is undervalued. We like the Seahawks to step up for a big win here as Dallas has lost 4 straight covers and we have the Seahawks winning 27-10, essentially a similar score to the New England 30-6 win.
3-Unit Play. #273. Take Under 46 Denver Broncos vs. Green Bay Packers (Sunday @ 8:30pm est)
We take a Total on Sunday Night between the Broncos and Packers. This is a fantastic public fade to start but we like the fact that both these defenses will step up against these opposing quarterbacks. Note that Green Bay for as potent as its offense is struggles against a strong defense. This is a Green Bay team that has played 3 straight unders, did not play that well against San Diego when they allowed the number of yards passing they did to Rivers and will look to bounce-back on that front and they face a Denver team who is more than irked for nearly losing to the Broncos on the road giving up 23 points. The last time they gave up 24 points they bounced-back the following week with 12 points against Detroit. Note this is a Denver team that realizes they don’t have the luxury of a healthy Peyton Manning so consequently they have to step up strong defensively. They have given up 13, 24, 12, 20, 10 and 23 points. With Green Bay’s defense coming in which is underrated plus Denver’s defense playing as well as it is, we like the Under here this Sunday Night and the public likely takes a hit.Comment
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Doc Sports With Write-Ups
4 Unit Play. #253/#213 Take Minnesota Vikings +1 over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm FOX)
I just believe that the Vikings are farther along in year 2 of Mike Zimmer’s tenure than the Bears are with their first-year Head Coach John Fox. Both teams have shown some flashes, but Minnesota is just better on both sides of the football. The Bears have not played well against divisional teams over the last three-plus years, going 6-14 ATS. Minnesota has yet to find itself on offense, but they have a great defense that should pose problems for Jay Cutler all day long. Chicago does not have a good defense, either, and thus I suspect that the team that turns it over less wins, and that should be the Vikings.
5 Unit Play. #261/#215 Take Arizona Cardinals -5 over Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1 pm FOX)
The Red Birds got backdoored on Monday Night Football last week, settling for field goals and missing an extra point in the second half. That was a brutal beat for us, but in a way it sets up this play. Arizona is loaded with talent on both sides of the football, and they play an aggressive style of defense that will give the Browns fits for sixty minutes. The Browns will play better than they did against St. Louis, but they have quarterback issues with Josh McCown questionable for this game and Johnny Manziel having some off-the-field issues. Cleveland is just 2-5 on the season, and they have not played that great of a schedule as they have yet to play the Bengals or Steelers this season (two games left with each). Arizona is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a pointspread loss in their previous game. Arizona is also 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing home record. Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November.
8 Unit Play. #269/#225 Take New York Jets -3 over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS)
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.
Everything in the world went right for three quarters last week for the Oakland Raiders in San Diego. But I always believe that there is not any carryover in the NFL from week to week and expect a much different outcome in this game. Unlike the Chargers, the Jets have a defense and a strong running attack. New York gave the Patriots all that they could handle for 60 minutes and fell just short when they could not get off the field on a couple of key third downs. This line opened as a pick, but now the early money is coming on the Jets for good reason. Oakland has already lost two home games this season, and this will be one the best defenses that they have faced all season. The Jets have covered 7 of their last 9 games (1 push). New York has beaten Oakland each of the last two years by an average margin of victory of 7.5. New York is 4-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 road games. Oakland has never handled prosperity well, going 3-12 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games following a victory in their previous game.Comment
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Mike Missanelli
Raiders
RavensComment
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