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3 Unit Play Take #842 Weber State -2 over Utah State (9:00pm est):
Utah State is going thru some major changes this season as long time head coach Stew Morrill has moved on. Though the new head coach is a long time assistant it’s still a different guy in charge for the Aggies. We’ve seen their may be some issues here already as top freshman David Collette out of nowhere this week quit the team. This is a huge loss here for USU as Collette was arguably their best player last season and a lot was expected of him this year. This has to be a huge unexpected curve ball to the team and coaching staff so close to the season. Add in the fact the confidence of this group has to be low anyways as they lost their last exhibition game to a D-2 school and it wasn’t a fluke either as the Aggies were outplayed in the defeat. Added all up and this team doesn’t appear ready to go here in a tough spot on the road.
Take Weber State minus the points here.
4 Unit Play. Take #775 Over 135 Rice at California (11:30p.m., Friday November 13 PAC12)
I usually don’t play College Basketball totals this early but when I saw this total posted at 135 I started scratching my head. This Cal team is deep and I see them going far in the tournament and their offense is going to be the big surprise. Cal returns three of its top four scorers from last year team and boasts one of the nation’s top recruiting classes so their offense will be outstanding and tonight I see them scoring at will against the Rice Owls.
3 Unit Play. Take #832 Missouri -2.5 over Wofford (8:00p.m., Friday November 13)
A new season and a new start for the Missouri Tigers and I see this young team producing W’s quickly and this team will be much better then last year’s squad. Mizzou lost some offense coming into this season but I believe the kids who enter this season will produce early and again Mizzou will be better then last year. Wofford also lost talented guys on offense and since this game is in Columbia, Missouri the home crowd will give the Tigers an early College Hoop winner.
4 Unit Play. Take #115 USC -16.5 over Colorado (9:00 PM, Friday, November 13, ESPN 2)
The USC Trojans will look to extend their winning streak to four games when they hit the road to take on Colorado at Folsom Field in Boulder, CO on Friday night. The Trojans have posted a 7-2 ATS record in their last nine games following an ATS loss and they have covered in four of their last five games where they faced a team with a losing record. Colorado, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot that they are in here on Friday night as they have gone just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and they have failed to cover the number in their last four home games. Throw in the fact that USC has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five head to head meetings between the two sides and we’ll lay the points with them in a game that our numbers have them winning in a blowout in Colorado
CBB..Today we are on Iowa State -8 over Colorado. Look for this line to move up as the day goes on. The Cyclones are loaded with 4 returning starters and two key reserves. Niang the All American who averaged over 15 ppg, will be an even threat this year. Colorado struggled last year, and will have more issues this year. It starts with a key injury to Xavier Johnson who may redshirt, and then they also need to replace leading scorer Askia Booker. They do have 4 returing starters, but only one of them averaged 6 ppg last year. Not sure where their offense comes from.
CBB...Today we are on Gonzaga - 4 1/2 over Pittsburgh. The Bulldogs are loaded for another great year as they had 35 wins last year. Wiljier/Sabonis and Kazewski give them a huge front line. Perkins who sat out last year with an injury comes back to them also. For Pittsburgh, they are hoping a trio of young forwards helps them. The problem is that they lack size, and that they do not have a proven scorer amoung them.
CBB...Today we are on Arizona -23 over Pacific. Arizona has the longest home winning streak in NCAAB at 38, and that will continue tonight. This team got stronger with the addition of transfers Ryan Anderson and Marc Tollefson added to their lineup. Pacific will suffer tonight with three key suspensions for misconduct. The lost their 2nd leading scorer in Thompson, they also lose another starter in Kobre who hit 45 3 pointers last year, and they lost Elarey who was a presence down low with 25 blocks. Tonight, they lose lots of talent and depth against a very strong team.
T.G.I.F Double Perfect NBA Revenge Game oF The Month, 100% ESPN 2 PAC 12 college Football play and NCAAB Opening night play lead the way for Friday. Thursday sweeps 3-0 Free NBA Play below.
The Free NBA Play is on the Indiana Pacers. Game 704 at 7:05 eastern. The Pacers have covered 26 of the last 34 in november including 6 straight. The winning team in this series has covered 15 straight and the pacers have won and covered 5 of 6 at home against Minnesota. The Pacers are 3-0 ats vs winning teams and 4-0 vs teams who score 99 or more points per game. Pacers are 5-0 ats home off a road win. Minnesota has no rest and comes in off a home loss to Golden St. Look for Indiana to get the win. On Friday The Revenge Game of the Month and 100% Pac 12 ESPN 2 Power play lead the card along with College hoops opening night play. Message to Jump on now and get the weekend started big with a Triple pack tonight. For the free NBA Play we are playing the Indiana Pacers. GC
The New York Crew has its 50 Dime play on Toronto at home against New Orleans. The Raptors are -9 1/2 as of 12:55 Eastern as I put my site live for Friday.
8-Unit Play. Take Kansas (-125) TO WIN Big 12 Conference
Death, taxes and Kansas winning the Big 12. Even Hume would have to admit that those are things we know will happen. Kansas has won an absolutely astounding 11 straight Big 12 titles in college basketball. It is a dynasty that doesn’t get nearly the recognition that it deserves, especially when you consider that the Big 12 has been one of the two or three best conferences in the nation over the last 20 years. This isn’t some Gonzaga-like mid-major just dominating a small pond. This is one of the premier programs in the nation dominating one of the best leagues in the country. And it will continue this year.
So I know this seems like an ?obvious? or ?square? play. But the fact is that it is a bad line. This number should be closer to -180 or -200. The books should be FORCING bettors to take some other team to win the Big 12 this year. But they aren’t. They haven’t priced out the clear-cut best team enough, just like they didn’t do last year with my 8-Unit Play on Kentucky to win the SEC. This play is in the same mold.
I don’t just like Kansas because they always win this league. I legitimately feel they are head-and-shoulders better than the rest of the teams in the Big 12. And this is even if they don’t have the services of freshman Cheick Diallo, a center who is currently in the process of being screwed over by the NCAA. Diallo may or may not be eligible this season; it’s a 50-50 proposition right now. If he is eligible then you can spend this money already.
If there was a time to get Kansas it was last year. They had lost three starters and four of their top eight players from the season before, including Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid. Last year they had seven – SEVEN! – freshmen and sophomores that logged major minutes and zero seniors to lean on. There were injuries. There were some issues guys like Brannen Greene and Cliff Alexander. And Kansas just wasn’t as dominant as we expect. They got blown out by 32 against Kentucky. They lost by 25 at Temple. They nearly lost at home to Florida and Utah?and Kansas never loses at home! But the Jayhawks held it together enough to win their 11th straight title.
And here’s the thing: Kansas’ odds to win the Big 12 last year were -250! So I think they are significantly better by virtue of experience yet the odds are cut in half.
The Jayhawks brought everyone back. Everyone’s back and they are a year older and better. They also added a Top 20 freshman in Carlton Bragg and maybe another Top 10 frosh if Diallo is eligible. Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor and transfer Hunter Mickelson are there to provide the senior leadership. Wayne Selden and Frank Mason are juniors now and both ready to break out. (I’m a huge Mason fan. He is fearless.) They have shooters. They have size. They have depth. They don’t have a weakness.
Also, and this is really a key: Kansas has a huge advantage going into this season because they were able to play together this summer in the World University games. The Jayhawks – with a couple other guys from different college teams – went 8-0 this summer in South Korea, playing against top-notch world competition. They got a ton of extra practice time, excellent game experience, and just overall bonding time. This team was already going to be a cohesive unit because they brought everyone back from last year. But being able to play together this summer is a major advantage heading into the season and I think they will hit the ground running.
Of course, it isn’t just about Kansas. To handicap the race you have to look at the other competition in the Big 12. And really there are only two or three other teams with a chance to knock them off. Iowa State is always dangerous and they have the best player in the league in Georges Niang. But they have a new coach, they lost two starters, and the Cyclones just aren’t the same team when they play on the road. Oklahoma is a team in the Top 10 of the preseason. They have a ton of experience and four starters back from last year’s second-place team. But the guy they lost was their most important (not the best, the most important) player, TaShawn Thomas. Oklahoma is too small. They have very, very little size and might not start a guy taller than 6-8. The only guys taller than that are either freshmen or a JUCO guy. I just don’t know that they’ll hold up against bigger, more physical teams like West Virginia, Baylor and Texas and they haven’t done a good job of showing up for big games. The Longhorns are the sleeper team. They have a lot of talent. But are also adjusting to Shaka Smart’s new system.
All told, I just think there are too many things pointing toward the Jayhawks. They are clearly the best team and have dominated this league. I don’t see anything in this group that would make me think that they can’t do it again.
If you are looking for some other high-yield futures plays I like a $200 bet on Michigan (+500) and Michigan State (+500) to win the Big Ten. (This is basically a $400 wager with a 2-to-1 payout on Maryland to NOT win the Big Ten.) I also like a similar wager on Butler (+300) and Xavier (+500) to win the Big East. (Same thing, this is essentially a bet AGAINST Villanova to win the Big East with a plus-money payout.)
7-Unit Play. Take #756 USC (-11.5) over San Diego (8 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
Last season the Trojans lost their season opener to a pathetic Portland State team. That’s not happening here. This game should be a goddamn bloodbath. USC has been an afterthought in the Pac-12 the past few years. And, to be fair, they have been horrific. But most of that had to do with the fact that they hired Kevin O’Neill, one of the worst basketball coaches in the country, to steer the program. Now they have Andy Enfield and Enfield has had some time to purge the roster and build up the talent base. Now I think the Trojans are ready to break out. And while they might not have the juice to make it back to the NCAA Tournament (though I think they will put up a hell of a fight) this is a legit team that will win some games in the Pac-12 this year. USC is way too big for San Diego. Nikola Jovanovic is a beast. USC has two Top 100 freshmen that are 6-10 or taller. And 6-11 forward Malik Martin is a part-time starter. San Diego doesn’t have a guy taller than 6-9. They have just two guys on the entire roster over 6-7, and one of them is a freshman. The Trojans have all five starters back from last year’s club. San Diego is replacing two of the best players in school history: Johnny Dee and Chris Anderson. If you never saw Dee you missed one of the best pure shooters in the country this decade. And Anderson was lightning in a 5-8 bottle. The Toreros have a brand new coach. They have a lot of new players. They are completely rebuilding. USC did the rebuilding thing. Now they are ready to rock. And they should demolish San Diego in this opener. I’ll call this one an 19-point win for the home team.
6-Unit Play. Take #813 North Dakota State (-3) over UC-Davis (8:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
I love this play here. North Dakota State welcomes back four starters from an NCAA Tournament team last year. Yes, the one player they lost was stud guard Laurence Alexander, one of the best mid-major players in the nation last year. But the core is here, led by three-year starter Kory Brown and double-digit scorer A.J. Jacobson. Six of the top seven scorers are back and NDSU welcomes in some redshirt players that have experience in the system. The Bison are always really tough in Fargo as well and that should help this team stay comfortable and confident coming out of the chute. Compare that with what UC-Davis lost last year and it is not even close. Davis was one of the best mid-major teams in the nation last season, thanks in large part to guard Corey Hawkins and his 20.9 points per game. Davis lost four of its top six scorers and all of its guards from last season. They are starting over from scratch. And it’s not like this is a stable program, as they went just 9-22 two seasons ago. If you dig back into their nonconference scores for that 2013-14 season you’ll see that these guys got wrecked on the regular. And that’s what is going to happen here. Fargo might as well be the moon for these kids from California. And while NDSU is perfectly comfortable here I think Davis will still be getting used to a lot of new things. Also, I don’t think that Davis played an exhibition game while NDSU won easily in there. Just having that one game to stretch out in is yet another advantage for the home team.
4-Unit Play. Take #830 Oklahoma State (-12) over UT-Martin (8 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
You could pretty much take my writeup from the Georgia Tech game and plant it right here. Travis Ford is a guy that needs some wins – fast. His seat continues to warm and all is not well in Stillwater. Ford can’t afford to take things easy and ease into this season, especially after losing three starters off last year’s tournament team. But the Cowboys may be dealing with a little addition by subtraction. LeBryan Nash was a head case for this team last season. He’s gone and now the undisputed leader is Phil Forte, one of the best lead guards in the Big 12. Oklahoma State also has a ton of physical talent. Tav Shine, Leyton Hammonds and Jeff Carroll are all around 6-6 and all super athletic. Ford also added a pair of highly touted freshmen and has two seniors starting in the backcourt. Ford won’t develop any of this talent, mind you. But to start the year these guys should be able to run faster, jump higher, and play better than a rebuilding UT-Martin squad. Martin lost two double-digit scoring guards last year. They bring back two nice players in Twy Howard and Alex Anderson, and they welcome back medical redshirt Myles Taylor. But they aren’t nearly as solid as they were at this point last season. And last year they went on the road and lost by double digits against a feeble Marquette team and a bad Nebraska squad in the first two weeks of the season. And in 2014, when this team was really bad, they got demolished in their nonconference games that November. The Cowboys have been really good at running overmatched opponents off the floor in early season nonconference games the past two years. But those were much, much, much better and more talented teams than what they are working with right now. But the Cowboys are still a lot better than Martin right now and a bit more motivated. I think they will get over this bar here.
2-Unit Play. Take #730 St. Joseph’s (-9.5) over Drexel (8 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
Drexel is not good at all. I respect the rivalry aspect of this game. But the Dragons are kind of a floundering program here and the are overmatched. St. Joe’s will be a sleeper in its conference and Phil Martelli has his best team in a few years. DeAndre Bembry is legit and he is one of four starters back for St. Joe’s. This line is a little higher than I wanted (Ithought 7.5) but it just goes to show that the books are all over what a mismatch this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #738 Pittsburgh (+4.5) over Gonzaga (7 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
I’m not nearly as high on Gonzaga as the rest of the basketball-loving world is. They have a great frontcourt. Though Sabonis is on the mend right now. Kyle Wiltjer is a high-usage (see: ball hog) gunner that won’t overmatch anyone on the Panthers. Pittsburgh is tough. They are scrappy. They love the underdog role. They have four starters and six key pieces back from last season. They will have to fight to hold their own on the boards. But Pittsburgh’s guards are absurdly more experienced than Gonzaga’s, which lost its three best ball handlers from last year’s team. I think Pitt scores an opening night upset here.
3-Unit Play. Take #740 Georgia Tech (-18) over Cornell (8 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
The Yellowjackets are going to kick the piss out of Cornell. There are plenty of reasons why. The primary reason is that Cornell sucks. But it goes a lot deeper than that. Let’s start with Georgia Tech, since they are the aggressors. This is a make-or-break season for Brian Gregory. He would’ve been canned after last year. But he still has three years and over $2 million left on his contract, plus a buyout, and the GT athletic department can’t afford to pay for three coaches (they still owe Paul Hewitt money). So Gregory has been given a short reprieve. And he knows he is coaching for his job. The thing is, though, that Tech really isn’t that bad. Last year they went 12-19. But they lost three games in overtime and nine – NINE! – of their 19 losses were by four points or less. An astonishing seven of their losses were by two points or less. So this was a hard-luck team last season and really was much better than its record suggests. The Yellowjackets brought back three starters and their two best players, Marcus Georges-Hunt and Charles Mitchell. They also added som impact transfers in Adam Smith, a veteran sharpshooter, Nick Jacobs, a valuable post scorer, and James White, a crafty veteran. Tech enters the season with a solid all-around eight-man rotation. They have three good post players. They have two good guards. They have some young kids that could be ready to take a step forward. So the Jackets are underrated, they are motivated, and they are ready to go. Cornell, on the other hand, stinks. They went 13-17 last year and watched three starters graduate. One of those seniors was Shonn Miller, an all-Ivy performer. Cornell is completely rebuilding. So they don’t have the size, experience or talent to run with the Jackets. Last year this team lost by 24 points in a game against South Carolina, a team built similarly to this year’s Tech group. Cornell also lost by 13 at Radford, by 17 at Syracuse, by 19 at Buffalo and by 21 at Harvard. Two years ago the Big Red played four nonconference games against Top 100 teams. They lost by 22, 45, 34 and 24 points. So they’ve shown a propensity to get run. Cornell comes into the season rated No. 311. Last year Georgia Tech played No. 330 Alabama A&M in the season’s first week and the Jackets won by 20. Two years ago they faced No. 349 Presbyterian and won by 31 in the opener. They followed with an 18-point win over No. 322 Delaware State and added 17-point wins over No. 347 Mississippi Valley State and Kennesaw State. So they have shown that under Brian Gregory they can beat the piss out really, really bad teams that they face early in the season. That’s exactly what I expect to see here.
2-Unit Play. Take #741 Miami, OH (+15.5) over Xavier (7 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
I think this is a few too many points. I love Xavier this year. I think that they have a great chance to actually win the Big East and they have one of the best young players in the country in Trevon Bluiett. However, this team can get a little harried at times. And they do have to adjust to life with their rock, Matt Stainbrook, controlling the game from the middle. Miami isn’t very good. But they can score a bit and they aren’t a pushover. This is also a rivalry game and I think the kids from Miami will come to play. Xavier will not have any problem winning this game. But I don’t see them running Miami off the floor.
1-Unit Play. Take #752 Auburn (+1.5) over UAB (9:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
I do think that UAB deserves to be favored here. They were one of the biggest surprises in the country last year and not only made the NCAA Tournament, but beat Iowa State. I do think they are going to have some trouble on the road here. Bruce Pearl just keeps adding talent to his roster and he will have the crowd whipped up into a frenzy. I think that Auburn’s frantic pace of play is going to rattle UAB a little bit. And I think that Pearl is always at his best when he is in the underdog role.
2-Unit Play. Take #766 UNLV (-7) over Cal Poly (10 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
3-Unit Play. Take #770 Fresno State (-1.5) over Pepperdine (10 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
These are two teams that I really like this year. Be prepared to see these names a lot this season. But in this instance I obviously like one side more than the other. First of all, this a big revenge game for Fresno State. Pepperdine smoked them by 15 points in Malibu last year in the opener. Now Fresno gets to return the favor. Last year when they played the Bulldogs were working in some new guys. But now Fresno State enters the season with one of the best backcourts of any mid-major team in the country. Two of the Bulldogs’ best players are probably transfers Julien Lewis and Cezar Guerrero. Last year they were just getting acclimated to a new roster (and Guerrero wasn’t eligible until December, and then got hurt). They are nasty. But leading scorer Marvelle Harris and Paul Watson, who has started just about every game in his Fresno career, are equally skilled for this team. Fresno is smaller than Pepperdine. And the Waves may have the best player on the floor in Stacy Davis. But I think that Fresno is going to be ready to break out in this game. They’re at home, with revenge, and with what I think is the better team. Last year they beat San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State and New Mexico at home. Pepperdine struggled a bit away from home. I expect both trends to continue and I’m going Fresno here.
2-Unit Play. Take #771 Illinois State (+10) over San Diego State (10 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
I think that this is too many points for San Diego State to be laying out right now. This is a massive, massive team. They really do have size for days. But they don’t have any guards and lost a key perimeter piece to injury for the year when Matt Shrigley went down. Illinois State has a really strong system. They run well-paced sets and they can get shots from where they want them. This team played in the postseason last year and they almost knocked of Wichita State in the MVC Tournament. I think they will be up for the challeng here.
2-Unit Play. Take #776 California (-16) over Rice (11:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
This little winner will be a nice nightcap on opening night. Cal is absolutely loaded in the backcourt and for my money has the best starting trio of guards in the nation. They also have a pair of highly touted freshmen in the post that will be looking to show off their skills. Rice was a 12-win team last year. They lost their leading scorer and by far their best player, Seth Gearhart, and this team has some work to do. The Owls aren’t very big so they can’t hit Cal where it hurts on the inside. That makes this one a matchup of guard play and Cal has the major advantage there. Rice lost its opener at Oregon State last year by 13 points. This is a much better California squad and I think the score will indicate it. Rice is too young to put up a fight for the full 40 minutes. They will run out of gas and the Golden Bears will hit the jets.
4-Unit Play. Take #778 Wright State (-6.5) over South Dakota (5:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
Wright State is a legitimate college basketball program. I don’t know what South Dakota is. Wright State will be much better this season than the team that only won three league games last year. They have three starters back from a team that was banged up and beaten down most of last season. In fact, they are projected as the No. 2 team in the Horizon this season. (I have Milwaukee No. 2, but that’s neither here nor there.) These guys can play. And over the last 15 years they have been rock solid at home. South Dakota lost its two leading scorers from a team that surprisingly finished over .500 last season. But more than half of their 17 wins came against teams ranked No. 250 or lower or teams from D-II. The Coyotes haven’t won a road opener in their six-year D-I history. I don’t see it starting now.
3-Unit Play. Take #781 Milwaukee (-6) over Denver (7:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
Chalk this one up to one of my pioneering and unique nonconference college basketball strategies: relative conference strength. Milwaukee is probably the third-best team in the Horizon League this year. Denver is probably the sixth or seventh best team in the Summit. So by gauging the discrepancies in the leagues and their standings in those leagues it shows me that the Panthers are clearly the much better team in this one and they are going to win this game. Milwaukee lost its top scorer from last season. But they brought back their best player, Matt Tiby. Along with six of their top seven scorers. Also, Austin Arians, a starter in 2013 that redshirted last year, is back as well. The Panthers went to the NCAA tournament just two years ago. That season they won at Davidson and beat Northern Iowa. Last year they beat two more quality mid-majors, taking down UL-Lafayette and Montana. Milwaukee is much better this season then they were while going 14-16 last year. I think Denver is worse, mainly because they lost two-time all-league guard Brett Olson and three of their top five scorers. The Pioneers have 10 freshmen and sophomores on the roster, as well as two new assistant coaches. They are clearly rebuilding. Milwaukee isn’t rebuilding. They are going to bounce back and it will start with a win here in Denver.
2-Unit Play. Take #791 Chattanooga (+11) over Georgia (7 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
2-Unit Play. Take #793 Western Carolina (+21) over Cincinnati (7 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
2-Unit Play. Take #808 Fairfield (+8.5) over Yale (3 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
2-Unit Play. Take #815 Princeton (-1) over Rider (7 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
2-Unit Play. Take #839 Western Illinois (+26.5) over Wisconsin (9 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
2-Unit Play. Take #845 Arkansas State (-3.5) over SIU-Edwardsville (9 p.m., Friday, Nov. 13)
1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #792 Texas (-6) AND Take #738 Pittsburgh (+9.5)
1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #802 Hofstra (-6) AND Take #756 USC (-6.5)
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