11-14-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert feringo

SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
1-Unit Play. Take #128 Indiana (+13) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)

If at first you don't succeed! Indiana couldn't pull the upset against Iowa last week. But I will come back on them here. Michigan has two monster games coming up: at Penn State and then at home against Ohio State. They are also coming off a blowout win in a game where they had two weeks to prepare for. That makes this one a letdown/look ahead situation. Indiana can score some points. And they aren't the type of team that will be distracted by playing in their final home game. If anything, they will use that emotion as motivation. I can see them sliding in the back door in this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #129 Florida International (+12) over Marshall (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
Marshall is a team that I wanted to fade this year. They lost a ton of talent from last season and were overrated after all they accomplished last season. They started off hot again this season but have started to slow down, going 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Florida International has been very good on the road this season, starting from their opening week win over UCF as a double-digit underdog. This line jumped out at me that it wasn't over 14 - especially considering how good Marshall has been at home the past three years - and I will take the points in this one.

1-Unit Play. Take #131 Akron (-7) over Miami, OH (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 14)
2-Unit Play. Take #139 Tulane (+2.5) over Army (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 14)
2-Unit Play. Take #151 Kansas State (+6) over Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)

Bill Snyder is a goddamn national treasure. The Wildcats have been the best moneymaker - that no one talks about - in college football over the past five years. And they are an automatic play as an underdog. Especially against a Texas Tech team that really has no business being a favorite over anyone. Tech doesn't play anyone. And they only beat bad teams. That has been their M.O. over the last three seasons. Part of this is a makeup for not jumping on K-State last week at home against Baylor. But the bigger reason for this play is that if a Snyder team is getting points we should automatically get our money down on them.

2-Unit Play. Take #153 Kentucky (+3.5) over Vanderbilt (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
NOTE: This play is from the KING System.

2-Unit Play. Take #157 N.C. State (+10) over Florida State (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
N.C. State is a team I've been riding all season long. I think this team is more talented than they have played and thought they were one of the best three or best teams in this conference. They have played FSU tough and they really have a shot to spring the upset here. Florida State is in a letdown spot after their big game at Clemson last week. That game was really for the ACC title and they came up short. I don't know how much they will have in the emotional reserves for this one and I think that they are laying too many points. I had this spread around 7.0 and I think there is a lot of value on the Wolfpack, who have an offense that can do some damage here.

2-Unit Play. Take #159 Utah State (-1) over Air Force (2 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
2-Unit Play. Take #168 West Virginia (-8.5) over Texas (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 14)

At some point WVU is going to come through for us. They just have to. Dana Holgerson is going to lose his job if he can't put together a little winning streak here to close out the season. Morgantown is still a wild and weird place, and teams that aren't prepared for it can get run off the field. Texas is still a young team and I don't think that they care about this game at all. Also, the noon start time is 10 a.m. Texas time, and that will mess with the body clock of the Longhorn players. I think WVU has a chance to jump on them early and put this one to bed by the third quarter. I'll back the motivated Mountaineers and their explosive offense.

2-Unit Play. Take #172 Mississippi State (+8) over Alabama (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
Here we have another letdown spot. Alabama is coming off that big game with LSU last week. They had a lot of time to prepare and focus on that game and now they have to go on the road as a healthy favorite the following week. That's trouble. I don't think that Mississippi State is very good. But they have a lot of upperclassmen and this is the biggest game of their season, as well as one of their last home games. The Bulldogs won't be rattled by the physical nature of the Crimson Tide. Alabama may be a little beat up after banging heads with LSU last week and I expect them to get off to a slow start. I think this will be a low-scoring game that Alabama will find a way to win. But this one reminds me of their game against Arkansas last season, in which neither team topped 20 points and the underdog came through. The points are the play.

2-Unit Play. Take #174 North Carolina (-12.5) over Miami (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
North Carolina is on a roll. We won with them over Duke last week and I'm still pissed off that I didn't go much bigger in that game; it went exactly as I thought it would. The Heels are lighting people up - especially at home - and have won on their home turf by an average of 30 points per game this season. Miami has won back-to-back games. But they were against weak teams (Duke and Virginia) and they very easily could've lost both of them. Miami has played well since firing Al Golden midseason. But I think that momentum is coming to an end. This is a young Canes team whose record doesn't reflect its talent, and I think that they are due to get buried in a game. North Carolina looks like it making a beeline toward the ACC Championship game and after a couple seasons of underachieving they are finally starting to reach their potential. This game will be close for a half and UNC will pull away in the second half to get ahead of this number.

8-Unit Play. Take #177 SMU (+21.5) over Navy (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
Note: This is my College Football Underdog of the Year.
I can guarantee you there isn't another handicapper on the planet that has a big play on this game. In fact, I'm willing to bet there aren't too many SMU tickets floating around out there, period. I'm not taking this one to be counterintuitive, though. I really like this spot and I think that this is too many points for the Middies to lay out. The fact that 79 percent of the public betting in this game is coming down on the Midshipmen and the fact that this one is so-crazy-it-has-to-work just makes it that much sweeter.
First off, Navy finds itself in a completely foreign situation right here. They are fighting for first place in the American Athletic in their first year ever in a conference. They've never been down a stretch run before and have never competed for a conference title. For all the talk about Temple, Houston and Memphis, Navy has been just as good. The Middies are in the Top 25 right now and they are off a monster upset over Memphis (in a game we cashed a ticket on the underdog Middies, by the way) last week. This is as good as it gets for Navy.
However, that tells me it is time to jump off the bandwagon. First, they are in a killer letdown spot. They win their biggest game of the season to date last week and now they are laying out three touchdowns to a lowly SMU team? That's Letdown City. Next, Navy is just 1-17 ATS at home off a win as an underdog. That's 1-17! They have failed to cover in that role 14 straight times. And if you go back and look at Navy's track record over the last eight years this play makes a lot more sense. They are just 3-11 ATS as a favorite of 16.5 or more since 2007. It just isn't a role they play often. And if you go back and look at their schedule it seems like every year it is the same thing: they play a huge game or win a huge game and then find themselves as a monster November favorite and don't cover. Navy's average win this year is by just 16 points. SMU's average loss is by just 15. Navy didn't cover against North Texas this year as a 25.5-point favorite and they only beat Tulane and South Florida by 17 and 12, respectively.
SMU has probably played the toughest schedule of any non-Power 5 team in the country. They have faced Baylor, TCU, East Carolina, Houston and Temple. Their average loss to those teams is just 26.2 points. And you have to ask: is Navy as good as those teams? As consistently good? SMU was only down seven points at the half against Baylor. They lost by just 19 against TCU. They were beating East Carolina at the half and lost by 21 at Houston. Their 20-point loss to Temple was completely misleading as well. So this team has shown an ability to at the very list stick around with teams.
If Navy wins and cover it won't be pretty (think: 45-17). But I feel like this is too many points for Navy to lay in a letdown spot. The Middies don't have the pure athleticism to just run SMU off the field; they aren't going to physically dominate them like LSU would to North Texas or something like that. So I think Navy does enough to win but SMU does enough to cover. I'll call this one as a 38-25 game for Navy and we tuck inside the spread.

2-Unit Play. Take #181 Arkansas (+8) over LSU (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
You could basically take my writeup from the Mississippi State game and put it here for Arkansas. This is a big, physical team that is playing a beat-up LSU squad in a letdown situation after their disappointing game at Alabama last week. I don't think Arkansas has the goods to get the win but I don't see a blowout here. These points will be gold by the time the fourth quarter starts to wind down.

2-Unit Play. Take #184 Auburn (-1.5) over Georgia (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 14)
Auburn has really started to turn things around and play well. And they are facing a Georgia team that is all over the map. The Bulldogs are still terrible at the quarterback position, the defense is not trustworthy at all, and the running game is not as strong as it was with Nick Chubb toting the rock. I think that the West is so much better than the East in the SEC this year and I would essentially take just about any team from the West blindly over a team from the East. I just think there are too many question marks for the Bulldogs right now and if you look at the way these two teams are trending then the Tigers are the play.

2-Unit Play. Take #192 Troy (+6.5) over Georgia Southern (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
1-Unit Play. Take #196 California (-21.5) over Oregon State (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
2-Unit Play. Take #198 Idaho (+19.5) over Appalachian State (5 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
2-Unit Play. Take #203 Utah (-6) over Arizona (10 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
1-Unit Play. Take #208 South Carolina (+8) over Florida (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 14)

NOTE: This play is from the KING System.
Florida's offense has come back to earth since they lost their quarterback. They were lucky to escape against Vanderbilt last week and that is a bad Commodores team. Florida had a nice little momentum rush there at the end of September and early October. But they are starting to come down, and I don't think they are consistent enough with the ball to warrant laying this many points. South Carolina has really been playing hard and playing well since Steve Spurrier quit. (Maybe he was part of the problem.) And I think that they are focused on ending this season strong. This one is a potential upset waiting to happen and I'll take the points.

2-Unit Play. Take #209 Oregon (+10) over Stanford (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
NOTE: This play is from the KING System.
Oregon has been great in the underdog role over the past decade and this is a boatload of points. Everyone wrote this team off after they lost to Michigan State and Utah. But they have steadily improved and they still have a fantastic system that they are working. This is a lot of points for a rivalry game. I think that

2-Unit Play. Take #211 New Mexico (+30.5) over Boise State (10 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
New Mexico is a vastly improved squad and - don't look now - they are fighting for bowl eligibility. Could they possibly pull an upset here against Boise State? Hell no! But that doesn't mean that this isn't too many points. The public loves Boise State; it is almost just muscle memory. But the Lobos are a well-coached, experienced team that has closed the talent gap from a couple seasons ago. Boise has bigger fish to fry further down the schedule. I think they will get up big and then let off the gas. And unlike past years New Mexico actually has the talent to play with them and make a few plays in the second half to keep this one respectable.

2-Unit Play. Take #213 Minnesota (+12) over Iowa (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)
The Golden Gophers are easily one of the best teams in the country with a 1-4 record in conference play. This is a tough, physical team that plays the exact same style that the Hawkeyes do. Iowa has been riding the wave this year. But there is no way in hell they are one of the 10 best teams in the country and I think that they are going to start tightening up late in the season. Honestly, this is a game that I think Minnesota has a better chance of winning than getting blown out in. The Gophers will be patient, play the field position game, and look for opportunities to turn Iowa over. If this game is close in the second half then all the pressure shifts to the home team. Iowa may be able to pull a rabbit out and get another last-second win. But I don't expect them to come out and roll a very disciplined, experienced Minnesota team that is much better than its record suggests. Minnesota has actually played people this year. Iowa has not. I think it comes back to haunt the Hawkeyes here.

This Week's College Totals (I do not do write-ups on totals since they are based on proprietary

3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 57.5 Clemson at Syracuse (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 54.0 N.C. State at Florida State (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 14)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo

BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR

INDIANA +13.5

We lost a tough one with the Hoosiers last week against Iowa as they came within a point of the cover. After opening the season 4-0, Indiana has dropped its last five games but the home contests have been more than competitive. Prior to last week, Indiana nearly shocked Ohio St. at home and the other conference home game resulted in a three-point loss against Rutgers despite winning the yardage battle. Now the Hoosiers are getting close to a touchdown more this week than they got against now 9-0 Iowa and while solid, we don't think Michigan is a better team than the Hawkeyes. The Wolverines have suffered a pair of tough losses this season and while they have dominated at home, the road has been more difficult and this is just their second road game since the begging of October with the only other game on the highway resulting in just a three-point win at Minnesota. Give credit to Michigan for bouncing back from that Michigan St. loss as it dominated Rutgers last week but with games against Penn St. and Ohio St. on deck, this is a tough sandwich spot. Michigan is 5-19 ATS in its last 24 road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game while the Hoosiers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (128) Indiana Hoosiers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction Machine NCAA Lock

148 Old Dominion -4.5

AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times) Print Table

Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $ Calc
148 12:00 PM @ ODU UTEP -4.5 11.0 60.2 $82
199 7:00 PM UNLV @ COLOST 7.5 0.2 59.2 $72
161 4:00 PM GAST @ TXST 3.5 2.2 58.9 $68
187 8:00 PM OKLA @ BAYLOR 3 2.1 58.3 $62
139 12:00 PM TULANE @ ARMY 2.5 1.1 58.0 $59
144 7:00 PM @ SOFLA TEMPLE 3.5 0.5 57.1 $50


NCAA ‘Lock’
148 Old Dominion -4.5 • 60.2%
AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $
148 12:00 PM @ ODU UTEP -4.5 11.0 60.2% $82
199 7:00 PM UNLV @ COLOST 7.5 0.2 59.2% $72
161 4:00 PM GAST @ TXST 3.5 2.2 58.9% $68
187 8:00 PM OKLA @ BAYLOR 3 2.1 58.3% $62
139 12:00 PM TULANE @ ARMY 2.5 1.1 58.0% $59
144 7:00 PM @ SOFLA TEMPLE 3.5 0.5 57.1% $50
AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $
187 8:00 PM OKLA •Upset Watch• @ BAYLOR 3 2.1 58.3% $62
STRAIGHT-UP PICKS
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win%
187 8:00 PM OKLA •Upset Watch• @ BAYLOR 42.3 40.2 54.7%
OVER/UNDER PICKS
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% $
188 8:00 PM OKLA @ BAYLOR 77 82.4 Over 55.3% $31

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Insights

NCAAF Best Bets 40-53 -16.31 units

Game Time (ET) Play Best Line
11/14 12:00 PM 133 Play on MD 14-108
11/14 12:00 PM 140 Play on ARMY -2.5-118
11/14 12:30 PM 157 Play on NC-ST Over 52.5-110
11/14 10:45 PM 166 Play on UCLA -9.5-108
11/14 3:30 PM 178 Play on NAVY Under 63-110
11/14 3:30 PM 180 Play on IA-ST Under 63.5-108
11/14 3:30 PM 192 Play on TROY Under 56.5-108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

It seems like the Sharps have been on this Appalachian State team every week this season, but they have been good to us and we look towards the Mountaineers again this week as they travel to 3-6 Idaho. App State is 7-2 on the season, but coming off a disappointing 40-27 home loss to Arkansas State. The story of Idaho’s struggles has been their defense, evidenced by their last two losses where they gave up 55 and 52 points against New Mexico St. and South Alabama respectively. That’s really bad news as they are going to face a Mountaineer offense that is generating almost 39 PPG and 488 total yards per game on the road. The road has been kind to the Mountaineers as they are 6-1 against the number in their last seven roadies and 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss. The Vandals are an amazing 0-9 ATS when playing a team with a winning record over the past three seasons and just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 home games. This is a classic bounce back spot for App State against a porous defense and we actually have this graded out as a 25 point win for the visitors. Plenty of value under three scores and we’re going to back the Mountaineers in this spot. The Sharps say…

3 Units – Appalachian State (-19)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor Original NCAAF Picks

System play:
Houston -7


Other game:
Baylor -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fat Jack



THERE ARE 6 FOOTBALL SELECTIONS ON SATURDAY
#166 UCLA -10
#172 MISSISSIPPI STATE +8
#192 TROY +6.5
#202 LOUISVILLE -14
#209 oregon UNDER 69
#212 BOISE STATE -30

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Breakfast club - Pitt
Cust app - west vir
Best bet - wash
GOM - lsu
Blue marlin - San Diego st

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

4* marshall -11.5
4* tulane +2.5
4* baylor -2.5
4* nevada -1
6* oregon +10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy


5-Unit Play. #159. Take Utah State -1 over Air Force
3-Unit Play. #168. Take West Virginia -8.5 over Texas
3-Unit Play. #177. Take Southern Methodist +21 over Navy
3-Unit Play. #195. Take Oregon State +21.5 over California

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALAN HARRIS

3 Unit Play. Take #137/138 Ohio St. vs. Illinois – Over 55 (12:00 PM, Saturday, November 14, ABC)
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet on Saturday afternoon when the Ohio St. Buckeyes travel to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, IL. The Buckeyes have posted a 5-2 record to the over in their last seven games played in the month of November and they have gone over the total in 12 of their last 17 games where they faced a team with a winning record. Illinois has been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have posted a 4-2 record to the over in games played on an artificial surface here in 2015. Throw in the fact that the games in 2013 and 2014 between these two teams went over the total with the teams scoring a combined 164 points and that’s where we’ll have our play in a game where we expect both teams to move the ball and score at will on Saturday in Illinois.

3 Unit Play. Take #139 Tulane +2.5 over Army (12:00 PM, Saturday, November 14, CBS Sports Network)
The Tulane Green Wave will look to break their five game losing streak when they travel to take on the Army Black Knights at Michie Stadium in West Point, NY on Saturday afternoon. Tulane has posted a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven games where they faced a team with a losing record and they have covered in five of their last seven games overall. Army, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 3-7 ATS in their last ten games where they faced a team with a losing record and they have failed to cover in four straight non-conference games. Throw in the fact that the Green Wave are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss and we’ll take the points with them here in a game that our numbers have them winning outright over Army.

4 Unit Play. Take #143/144 Temple vs. South Florida – Over 44.5 (7:00 PM, Saturday, November 14, CBS Sports Network)
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet on Saturday night when the Temple Owls travel to take on the South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Owls have posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five conference games and they have gone over the total in five of their last seven games following a win. South Florida has been an over team as well in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone 4-2 to the over in their last six games where the line was at three points either way. Throw in the fact that Temple has gone 4-1 to the over in their last five games where they were listed as the favorite and that their offense is rolling after throwing up a 60 spot on SMU last week and that’s where we’ll have our play in a game where we expect both teams to move the ball and put points on the board Saturday in Tampa.

3 Unit Play. Take #145 Nebraska -8.5 over Rutgers (3:30 PM, Saturday, November 14, Big 10 Network)
The Nebraska Cornhuskers will look for back to back wins after their crazy win over Michigan St. last weekend when they travel to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at High Point Solutions Stadium in Piscataway, NJ on Saturday afternoon. Nebraska has posted 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 road games and they have covered in seven of their last ten games following a straight up win. Rutgers, on the other hand, has really struggled in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games where they faced a team with a losing record and they have covered in just two of their last eleven games played in the month of November. Throw in the fact that Nebraska has gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games where they faced a team with a losing record at home and that’s where we’ll have our play in a game that our numbers have Nebraska winning by double digits on Saturday.

4 Unit Play. Take #160 Air Force +1 over Utah St (2:00 PM, Saturday, November 14)
The Air Force Falcons will look to extend their winning streak to four games when they take on the Utah St. Aggies at Falcons Stadium at the US Air Force Academy in Colorado. The Falcons have posted a 5-1 ATS record in their last six games following a straight up win and they have gone an excellent 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. They have also been excellent when playing a team with a winning record on the road, going 6-1 in their last seven home games when they were in that situation. Throw in the fact that Air Force has gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games dating back to the 2014 season and we’ll take the points here with them in a game that our numbers have them winning outright on Saturday afternoon.

4 Unit Play. Take #161 Georgia St +2.5 over Texas St (4:00 PM, Saturday, November 14)
The Georgia St. Panthers will look to break their small two game losing streak when they travel to take on the Texas St. Bobcats at Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos Texas on Saturday afternoon. Texas St. has gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a losing record on the road and they have covered in just one of their last six games overall. The Panthers, on the other hand, have been very good in the spot they are in here in this game as they have gone an excellent 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. Throw in the fact that Texas St has gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous contest and we’ll take the FG or so with Georgia St in a game that we have them winning outright on Saturday afternoon in Texas.

5 Unit Play. Take #163 Arkansas St -14.5 over UL-Monroe (3:00 PM, Saturday, November 14)
The Arkansas St. Redwolves will look for their sixth win in a row when they travel to take on the UL-Monroe Warhawks at Malone Stadium in Monroe, LA. The Redwolves have posted a 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 conference games and they have gone an excellent 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played in the month of November dating back to the 2012 season. The Warhawks, on the other hand, have really struggled in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss and they have failed to cover the number in six of their last seven home games. Throw in the fact that Arkansas St. has gone 5-0 ATS in their last five head to head meetings with UL-Monroe and we’ll lay the points with them here to get a big road win on Saturday afternoon.

4 Unit Play. Take #169/170 Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame – Over 52 (3:30 PM, Saturday, November 14, NBC)
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet on Saturday afternoon when the Wake Forest Demon Deacons travel to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, IN. Wake Forest has posted a 5-1 record to the over in their last six games following an ATS win and they have gone an excellent 5-2-1 to the over in their last eight games where they faced a team with a winning record. Notre Dame has been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday afternoon as they have gone 6-2 to the over in their last eight home games and they have gone over the posted total in five of their last six home games where they faced a team with a losing record on the road. Throw in the fact that the Fighting Irish 6-2 to the over in their last eight games following an ATS win and that’s where we’ll have our play in this one as we are expecting both teams to put points on the board Saturday in South Bend.

7 Unit Play. Take #175 Southern Miss -7 over Rice (3:30 PM, Saturday, November 14)
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles will look to extend their winning streak to four games when they travel to take on the Rice Owls at Rice Stadium in Houston, TX on Saturday afternoon. The Golden Eagles have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and they have covered eight of their last eleven games following a win of 20 points or more. Rice, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall and they have lost their last four games ATS where they faced a team with a winning record. Throw in the fact that the favorite has gone a perfect 4-0 in the last four head to head meetings between these two teams and we’ll lay the points here with Southern Miss as they are the much better team and should have no problem defeating Rice by double digits despite being on the road.

4 Unit Play. Take #187/188 Oklahoma vs. Baylor – Over 76 (8:00 PM, Saturday, November 14, ABC)
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet in a huge Big 12 game on Saturday night when the Oklahoma Sooners travel to take on the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium in Waco, TX. Oklahoma has posted a 9-3-1 record to the over in their last 13 road games and they have gone over the total in five of their last six games following a straight up win. Baylor has been an over team as well in the spot they are in here tonight as they have posted a 12-3 record to the over in their last 15 home games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have gone over the posted total in 38 of their last 52 home games. Throw in the fact that Baylor has gone a lights out 32-15-1 to the over in their last 48 games following a straight up win and that’s where we’ll have our play in a game that we see turning into an old fashioned Big 12 shoot-out in Waco on Saturday night.

6 Unit Play. Take #196 California -21.5 over Oregon St (10:30 PM, Saturday, November 14, Pac 12 Network)
The California Golden Bears will look to put an end to their four game losing streak when they take on the Oregon St. Beavers at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, CA on Saturday night. Oregon St. has posted a 1-6 ATS record in their last seven games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have covered just one of their last eight conference games. Cal, despite their four losses in a row, has actually been pretty good in the spot we find them in here on Saturday as they have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games after they allowed 40 points or more in their previous contest. Throw in the fact that the favorite has covered four of the last five head to head meetings between these two teams and we’ll lay the points here with Cal as our numbers have them getting a blow-out win over an Oregon St. team that we have as by far the worst team in the conference in our power rankings.

3 Unit Play. Take #203 Utah -6 over Arizona (10:00 PM, Saturday, November 14, FS1)
The Utah Utes will look to improve their record to 9-1 here in the 2015 season when they hit the road to take on the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, AZ on Saturday night. Arizona has gone just 3-8 ATS in their last eleven games following an ATS win and they have covered just three of their last twelve home games. The Utes, on the other hand, have been pretty good in the spot they are in here on Saturday night as they have gone an excellent 9-2 ATS in their last eleven road games. Throw in the fact that the road team has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six head to head meetings between these two teams and we’ll lay the points here with Utah to get the win and cover over an Arizona team that has now lost there last three conference games after their defeat at the hands of USC last weekend.

3 Unit Play. Take #208 South Carolina +7.5 over Florida (12:00 PM, Saturday, November 14, ESPN)
The South Carolina Gamecocks will look to break their small two game losing streak when they take on the Florida Gators at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, SC on Saturday afternoon. Despite their 3-6 record, the Gamecocks have been a good team against the number here in 2015. They have posted a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games following a straight up loss and they have covered five of their last seven games on their home turf. The Gators, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot we find them in here on Saturday as they have gone just 3-9 ATS after allowing 20 points or less in their previous contest. Throw in the fact that South Carolina has been good in the month of November, going 6-2 ATS dating back to the 2013 season and we’ll take the points with them here in this one versus a Florida team that we think is a bit overrated and should be on upset alert this Saturday in Columbia.

3 Unit Play. Take #209 Oregon +10 over Stanford (7:30 PM, Saturday, November 14, FOX)
We have cashed some nice tickets this season both as a favorite and as an underdog so we’re going back to the well with the Ducks on Saturday as they travel to take on the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium in Stanford, CA. The Ducks have posted a 20-7 ATS record in their last 27 games following an ATS win and they have gone an excellent 12-2 ATS in their last 14 Pac-12 games dating back to last season. Stanford, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday night as they have gone just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games versus Oregon. Throw in the fact that the underdog has covered five of the last seven head to head meetings between these two teams and we’ll take the points in this one as we think Oregon will keep it a bit closer than the odds makers do on Saturday night in Stanford.

3 Unit Play. Take #216 San Diego St. -24 over Wyoming (10:30 PM, Saturday, November 14, CBS Sports Network)
The San Diego St. Aztecs will look to extend their winning streak to six games when they take on the lowly Wyoming Cowboys at Qualcomm Stadium on Saturday night in San Diego. The Aztecs have posted a 6-2 ATS record in their last eight games following a straight up win by 20 or more points and they have gone an excellent 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 Mountain West Conference games. Wyoming, who we have rated as one of the lowest teams in the country in our power rankings, has really struggled in the situation they find themselves in here on Saturday evening. They have gone just 4-10 in their last 14 games following an ATS loss and they have failed to cover in four of their last five games where they are coming off a double digit loss at home. Throw in the fact that San Diego St has gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight head to head meetings with Wyoming at home and we’ll lay the big number here with them in a game that we think Wyoming will have a hard time putting up double digits against a pretty good SDSU defensive unit.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VERNON CROY

4-Unit Play. Take #142 Syracuse +28 over Clemson (Saturday, November 14 at 3:30 PM ET)
Take the Syracuse Orange ATS as my 4-Unit CFB Smash for Saturday afternoon.
This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and I have this line off by 7.5 points here Saturday. Facing Syracuse on the road is a lot tougher than most might think, just ask LSU who came away with a slim 10 point victory against Cuse earlier this season. Since that LSU game they lost by just 3 points at home to Pitt, 6 points at home to Virginia and now they face Clemson. Clemson is coming off a very emotional game over Florida State and now head into a game many expect to be a blowout, however Syracuse is a different beast at home. Syracuse has allowed just 20.2 ppg at home this season and although injuries have greatly affected their season, they keep this one very close Saturday. The Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Play Syracuse +28 with confidence Saturday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE

4 Unit Play Take #186 Arizona State -2.5 over Washington (3:00pm est):
Arizona State will be an extremely motivated football team here as they come in looking to snap a 3 game losing streak. All three of those losses were hard fought battles. Last week the Sun Devils had to face off against a Washington State squad that was coming off a tough loss and also looking for revenge. ASU has owned Washington in this series as they come into this game having won 9 straight times against the Huskies and covering the spread in all 9 of those games as well.
True freshman quarterback Jake Browning has really struggled away from home this year for Washington as he’s averaged just 157 yards passing on the road. I really like the job head coach Chris Petersen is doing with this program in his 2nd year but this is a young team who seems to have trouble in tough environments like this one here. It won’t be any easier for the Huskies here either facing a desperate ASU squad in this one.
Take Arizona minus the points here.

3 Unit Play Take #168 West Virginia -8.5 over Texas (12:00pm est):
West Virginia has faced a murderous schedule thus far. The Mountaineers four losses this season have come against Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State in a game that WVU very easily could have won. Three of those four games were played on the road as they had to face the Sooners in Oklahoma and who were off a bye week and the Horned Frogs on the road as well and on a big Thursday night TV game.
Texas has been up and down this entire season. The Longhorns have really struggled on the road losing 38-3 to Notre Dame, 50-7 at TCU and getting shutout 23-0 at Iowa State. Outside of their big upset win over Oklahoma the Longhorns wins aren’t overly impressive either as they caught an exhausted Kansas State at the tail end of four straight hard games and they needed a +4 in turnovers to get by lowly Rice.
Take West Virginia here minus the points.

3 Unit Play Take #159 Utah State -1 over Air Force (2:00pm est):
Utah State suffered a fluke loss last week on the road against New Mexico. Everything broke wrong for the Aggies in the contest as they should have easily won that football game. There’s doubt that New Mexico used the bye week advantage to get them the win in that game as well.
The key to stopping Air Force is being able to stop the run and Utah State does that very well. Last season the Aggies defense held AFU to only 3.0 yards per rush in the game and is always ranked very high as a run defense. AFU has not beat an FBS team with a winning record this year and the record of those teams that they’ve beaten this are a combined 11-39 this season.
Take Utah State here.

[golden contender]

GC: NCAAF Play

Saturday selections include the 6* American Athletic Conf. 21-0 System Game of the Year on ESPN 2 and 3 More Televised Football winners all with 94% or higher systems and a 42-1 NBA Matchup indicator + College Hoops. NCAAF +42 Games over .500 since last year. Free College Play below.


The free College football system play is on Syracuse +29 points at 3:30 eastern. The Orange have some close and tough losses this year and should keep this one tighter than expected as they have covered 4 of 5 at home this year. Clemson could be flat off the FSU Win and are 0-5 ats as a road favorite of 18 or more and have failed to cover 5 of 7 with Wake Forest up next. We are also playing against Game 10 or later favorites off a 10+ point win and back to back wins the last one at home vs a team that has revenge. These teams have failed to cover 16 of 18 and the Orange are 4-1 ats taking 14 or more at home. Take Syracuse. On Saturday the 6* A.A. Conf. Game Of the Year with a 21-0 system takes center stage, there is also Alabama at Miss. St, and 3 More Big TV System winners all with long term system hitting over 94%. NBA 42-1 Matchup indicator and NCAAB. College Football is an amazing 42 games over .500 since last September. No one uses the data we use. Jump on Now and Cash big in all sports. For the free play Take Syracuse + the 29 points. GC

[kar261]

SkyBlue Picks:

Notre Dame -26.5
Miami FL +13
South Florida +3

*Note: These guys are starting to heat up again. And for what it's worth, I'm fading the Miami play; UNC rolls em big. GL!!