11-14-15

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SHEEP

SD St-24
Utah-6
S. Miss-7
Ark St-14

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Bondi GOY is Utah State

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Game Day

4* GOW Michigan State

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Teddy Covers

20* Tulsa

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North Coast

4* GOW Ariz State
4* Mia,Fla
4* Florida State
3* Alabama
3* Nevada

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Totals 4 You "Total Domination" for Saturday, November 14th


**** 2015 Big 10 Conference Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Ohio State/Illinois under 55 1/2




Early NCAA FB Best Bets
Georgia/Auburn under 52 1/2
Maryland/Michigan State under 56 1/2
Kansas/TCU under 71
Florida/South Carolina under 46 1/2


***** 2015 SEC Conference Watch & Win Total of the Year!!!!!
Alabama/Mississippi State under 51 1/2


Afternoon NCAA FB Best Bets
Michigan/Indiana over 55 1/2
Clemson/Syracuse over 57 1/2
Wake Forest/Notre Dame under 52
Oklahoma State/Iowa State over 60 1/2


***** 2015 Big 12 Conference TV Total of the Year!!!!!
Oklahoma/Baylor over 76 1/2


Late NCAA FB Best Bets
Memphis/Houston under 71
Arkansas/LSU over 54
Oregon/Stanford under 69
Washington State/UCLA over 65 1/2

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OMEGA SPORTS
TexasTec -5
Wash. State +11
FAU +5 1/2
W.Virginia -8 1/2

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10 Top Side Play · [137] Ohio State Buckeyes
TD's Power Call Sat Nov 14th, 2015 12:00pm EST

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10 Game of the Week Side Play · [193] San Jose State Spartans
EA Sargent Sports Sat Nov 14th, 2015 4:00pm ESTExpert Analysis: How is Nevada only a one point favorite at home? They have a better record and playing at home. The lines maker should have made this at least a 4 point line. We don`t fall for lines like this. In a game where the public will no doubt bet Nevada, let`s take SJ State winning this one going away. My Game of the Week

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Victor king aka the dawg pound=underdog game of the year is on

arkansas

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SportsLab

Rutgers +10 (-118) (10 units)
Memphis +7 (1 unit)

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Exodus to Black
CFB
Auburn-1
Miami/NC over 68.5
S Florida+1.5
Alabama-7 -125

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Dr bob

Strong Opinion - NORTHWESTERN (-15 ½) 35 Purdue 14

Sat Nov-14-2015 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 156 Over/Under 49.0 - Matchup Stats
Northwestern snapped back from their consecutive blowout losses to Michigan (0-38) and Iowa (10-40) with a pair of 2 point victories against Nebraska and Penn State. Northwestern is not historically trustworthy as a big favorite (12-22 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points under coach Fitzgerald) but my math model really likes the Wildcats to crush Purdue. At first glance I thought this was too many points to lay for a pedestrian Northwestern offense that has averaged only 4.6 yards per play and 18.6 points per game against FBS teams (that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl and 21.6 points to an average team). However, Northwestern’s only weakness as a team is their pass attack, which has been horrible (Thorson has averaged only 4.5 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB), but the Wildcats have a great defense and they are better than average running the ball on offense.

The rushing attack is all they may need against a Purdue defense that went from bad to horrible defending the run when they lost their best defensive player and leading tackler LB Ja’Whaun Bentley to a season ending injury after just 5 games. Bentley was averaging 9.8 tackles per game with 7 ½ tackles for loss in just 5 games and the Boilermakers have allowed an average of 483 yards at 6.6 yards per play in 4 games without Bentley, including 237 rushing yards at 6.5 yards per rushing play. Purdue has now allowed 6.0 yprp for the season and Northwestern running back Justin Jackson has averaged 185 yards at 6.1 ypr in the Wildcats’ only two games against teams with an average or worse run defense (Ball State and last week against Penn State). Purdue’s run defense is more than a yard per run worse than the average run defense rating of Ball State and Penn State and my math model projects Northwestern to run for around 300 yards at 7 yards per rushing play. Northwestern won’t need to throw much with that sort of ground assault and the Cats’ stingy defense (4.7 yppl allowed and 0.9 yppl better than average) has a significant edge over a sub-par Purdue attack that has been 0.8 yppl worse than average this season (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl). Purdue averaged only 244 yards at 3.6 yppl and 10 points in two games against good defensive teams Minnesota and Wisconsin and my model projects only 291 yards at 3.8 yppl for Purdue in this game, which isn’t likely to result in more than 14 points. Northwestern still may need to get to 30 points to cover but the math says that they should easily eclipse that mark by simply running the ball against soft Purdue defensive front.

While the idea of laying this many points with a bad offensive was not appealing at first glance I have been convinced by my math model that Northwestern is a profitable side. In fact, my model gives the Wildcats a 57.6% chance of covering, which qualifies this as a math play. The math plays haven’t been as good when applying to home favorites of 14 ½ to 21 points over the years (just 53.8%) so I’ll use that as my excuse to pass on making Northwestern a Best Bet. I’ll consider Northwestern a Strong Opinion at -16 ½ points or less.
**Maryland (+17) 23 MICHIGAN STATE 30

Sat Nov-14-2015 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 133 Over/Under 55.5 - Matchup Stats
Justice was served when Michigan State lost in the final seconds last week on a controversial play, which makes up for their miracle win at Michigan. Michigan State had managed to win all 4 close games they were in prior to finally getting burned last week and I see this as a flat spot for the Spartans, as they spend this week bemoaning last week’s result while also looking ahead to next week’s game at Ohio State. I actually don’t need Michigan State to be flat, I just need them to play their normal game and for Maryland not to throw 4 or more interceptions.

Michigan State has outgained their opponents by only 428 yards at 6.1 yppl to 375 yards at 5.8 yppl and the Spartans are just 2-7 ATS. After adjusting for schedule strength Michigan State rates at just 0.2 yppl better than average offensively (they’ve faced teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and just 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (adjusted for facing Oregon with Adams and Indiana with Sudfeld at QB). Those fairly mediocre compensated yards per play numbers don’t tell the whole story and Michigan State is actually much better than those numbers suggest given their +5.3 play differential and quarterback Connor Cook’s low interception rate (he’s thrown just 3 interceptions this season). But, even factoring those things in doesn’t put Michigan State in my top 20 and this game figures to be a battle unless Maryland is -3 or worse in turnovers.

Maryland is actually a pretty good team aside from the turnover issues that have been a consistent problem. Maryland has been 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl) and the Terps’ attack has been 0.7 yppl better than average the last 4 games since Perry Hills was reinserted as the starting quarterback. The Terrapins have faced 4 good defensive teams since Hills took over the starting job in week 6 but Hills’ great running (470 rushing yards at 6.9 yards per run the last 4 games) has helped that attack average 5.3 yppl against Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin – teams that would combine to allow just 4.6 yppl to an average offensive team. Michigan State’s defense isn’t on the same level and I expect Maryland to move the ball well when they’re not turning it over (more on that later).

Maryland’s defense is also better than average, as the 5.7 yards per play that the Terrapins have allowed has been against a slate of offensive units that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. My math model projects only 5.6 yards per play for Michigan State in this game while the Maryland offense is projected to average 5.5 yppl. However, Michigan State is projected to have a significant edge in play differential and in projected turnovers – although Maryland has a huge edge in special teams, even without their #1 kicker. Turnovers has been the issue for Maryland, as their quarterbacks have averaged 2.8 interceptions thrown per game while their defense has picked off just 0.7 passes per contest. However, the underrated Terrapins are so solid from the line of scrimmage and in special teams (William Likely has 3 return touchdowns) that they’ve covered the spread in 4 consecutive games despite being -9 in turnover margin in those games.

For the season Maryland has an average turnover margin of -1.9 turnovers while Michigan State’s average turnover margin is +1.2. A lot of that is due to variance, as Connor Cook should have 4.8 interceptions instead of 3 interceptions - based on his 3 year average of interceptions per incompletion ratio - and Michigan State’s +0.6 fumble margin is 90% random. Overall, 0.7 of Michigan State’s +1.2 turnover margin per game is due to variance. Maryland’s -0.2 fumble margin per game is basically all random and Hills isn’t quite as likely to throw as many interceptions as the 2.8 per game that the team has averaged so far this season. If I base future interceptions on Hills’ career interception per incompletion ratio then Maryland’s outrageous 8.6% interception rate (per pass play) would drop to 5.5%, which is still twice as much as the national average of 2.74% interceptions per pass play. No model would predict any quarterback to continue to throw interceptions at 5.5% but Maryland has been so consistent in that area that I decided to use that number in my model. However, 5.5% interceptions per pass play would result in 1.8 interceptions per game instead of the 2.8 interceptions that Terps’ quarterbacks have averages so far this season. Since I am playing Maryland I decided to assume the worst, which is that they would continue to throw interceptions at the impossible rate of 8.6% of their pass plays. But, even if that’s the case the math model would still favor Michigan State by only 10 points with a +1.8 turnover margin. If I make the turnover margin 3 then I get Michigan State by 16 ½ points. So, Michigan State would have to be +3 in turnover margin to approach a 50% chance of covering the spread in this game. Maryland, despite their significant turnover issues, has only been -3 or worse in turnovers 3 times in 9 games so I’ll take my chances that the Terrapins can keep the turnover margin at -2 or better and if that’s the case then I’m very likely to win this bet. The fact that Maryland is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games despite being -9 in turnovers is a strong indication of how underrated the Terrapins are right now and they’re playing hard under interim coach Mike Locksley. Add in the fact that Michigan State has been one of the nation’s most overrate teams, covering only 2 of 9 games despite at +1.2 turnover margin per game, and this is a solid value play. I’ll take Maryland in a 2-Star Best Bet at 16 or more and for 1-Star down to +14 points.

*OLD DOMINION (-4 ½) 35 Texas El Paso 23

Sat Nov-14-2015 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 148 Over/Under 56.5 - Matchup Stats
These teams have both been among the worst in the nation and Old Dominion rates at only 1.0 points better on a compensated points model for the season, which would explain why the Monarchs are favored by 4 ½ points at home. However, points scored and allowed is subject to a lot of variance and Old Dominion is clearly the better team based on the more accurate lens that I use.

Utep has been outgained by an average of 353 yards at 5.1 yards per play to 481 yards at 7.7 yppl this season while rating at 1.1 yards per play worse than average offensively with Mack Leftwhich at quarterback and an atrocious -2.0 yppl worse than average defensively, even after adjusting for variance (the 10.0 yppl they allowed to FIU was given less weight as an outlier). UTEP does have a +7.4 average play differential, which is the case because teams score so quickly on big plays against their defense, so they’re better than their -3.1 total yards per play rating suggests. UTEP’s line of scrimmage rating, which is a combination of total yards and yards per play and adjusted for schedule, is -23.6 points for the season and -21.4 points with Leftwich at quarterback.

Old Dominion has been outgained only 377 yards at 5.5 yppl to 435 yards at 5.8 yppl but the Monarchs have faced a very easy schedule and for the season they rate at -0.9 yppl on offense and -0.7 yppl on defense. Not only is that much better than UTEP’s rating on both sides of the ball but Old Dominion is better offensively since former wide receiver David Washington took over at quarterback. Former starter Shuler Bentley averaged only 4.2 yards per pass play while facing teams that would combine to allow 7.0 yppp to an average quarterback but Washington has averaged 6.9 yards on his 122 pass plays (against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp), so he’s a significant upgrade. Old Dominion's average line of scrimmage rating is -18.2 points but it’s -14.8 points with Washington at quarterback, which is 6.6 points better than UTEP’s line of scrimmage rating with Leftwich behind center. Old Dominion is also projected to be +0.3 in turnovers and my math gives the Monarchs a 55.4% chance of covering at -4 ½ points – based on the historical performance of the model. That’s not quite a math play, but it’s close enough for me to make a small play against a UTEP team that is just 5-19 ATS as an underdog away from home (1-4 ATS this season). I’ll take Old Dominion in a 1-Star Best Bet at -6 or less and for 2-Stars at -4 or less (ODU is officially a math play at -4 or less).

***Louisville (-11) 34 Virginia 14

Sat Nov-14-2015 at 09:30 AM Pacific Rotation: 202 Over/Under 48.0 - Matchup Stats
I’m back on Louisville again this week after the Cardinals won for me in a 3-Star Best Bet last week against Syracuse. The Louisville offense had been waiting to bust out against a bad defense after facing a series of good defensive teams and new starting quarterback Kyle Bolin lead the Cardinals to 583 yards at 8.8 yards per play in a 41-17 win that would have been more pronounced if not for being -2 in fumbles. I’ve been scratching my head all season wondering why the coaching staff didn’t turn to Bolin, who played great at the end of last season (8.6 yards per pass play against Kentucky and in the bowl against Georgia) and relatively well against a great Clemson defense in a 3 point loss. Bolin doesn’t run the ball like fellow quarterbacks Jackson and Bonnafon, which drops the run game significantly (Jackson leads the team in rushing) but Bolin’s passing more than makes up for that, as he’s averaged 7.6 yards on 98 pass plays this season while facing teams that would allow just 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback (and his compensated numbers were even better last year). Jackson was a bit worse than average in the passing game, so the pass attack is much better off and Bolin fits the stereotype of a Bobby Petrino quarterback. Virginia has a below average defense and the Cavaliers have allowed 8.0 yards per pass play in their 8 games against FBS competition this season (although against good quarterbacks that would average 7.6 yppp against an average defense) and they’re 0.2 yprp worse than average defending the run. Louisville’s offense has produced good numbers against the only two sub-par defensive teams they’ve faced and the math projects 441 yards at 6.8 yards per play for the Cardinals in this game.

While the Louisville offense is improved, the defense is still the strength of the team, as the Cardinals have yielded just 4.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. That unit has a huge edge over a slightly worse than average Virginia attack (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) that averaged only 4.5 yppl and 15 points in their two games against really good defensive teams (UCLA and Boise). My model projects just 289 yards at 4.4 yppl for Virginia in this game and I expect another easy win for Louisville. I’ll take Louisville in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13 ½ or less and for 2-Stars at -14.

*IOWA STATE (+14) 26 Oklahoma State 34

Sat Nov-14-2015 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 180 Over/Under 61.0 - Matchup Stats
Not only is this a major letdown spot for Oklahoma State, off an update of TCU and with Baylor and Oklahoma coming up, but my math model also likes Iowa State in this game. Iowa State has been outscored by 6.8 points per game and the Cyclones have been outgained 411 yards at 5.3 yards per play to 459 yards at 6.4 yppl but they’re actually not a bad team. Iowa State has faced a brutal schedule that includes games against Iowa, Toledo, TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma, who have a combined record of 40-3. The Cyclones rate as average offensively and only 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense after compensating for their schedule.

Oklahoma State is 9-0 and coming off an upset win over previously unbeaten and highly ranked TCU and the Cowboys have big home games against Baylor and Oklahoma coming up. Road favorites of 4 points or more are only 52-103-5 ATS after a straight up win as a home underdog in their last game as long as they don’t have revenge against their current opponent (for a loss the previous season). Oklahoma State also applies to a 2-26-2 ATS subset of a 37-102-3 ATS road favorite letdown situation and Iowa State applies to a 77-31-3 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs after a loss of 28 points or more (ISU lost 16-52 at Oklahoma). It’s possible that Oklahoma may not letdown for this game given the reminder that I’m sure they’re getting about how an 11-0 and highly ranked Cowboys squad lost straight up at a 27 point favorite on this field back in 2011. However, even if there is no letdown I still like Iowa State based on the math.

It was previous established that Iowa State was an average team that looked worse than they are due to facing a tough schedule. Oklahoma State is obviously a very good team and the Cowboys rate at 1.1 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.6 yppl better than average on the defensive side of the ball. My math model does project Oklahoma State with a yardage advantage of 472 yards at 6.7 yppl to 391 yards at 5.2 yppl but that’s not nearly enough to justify a two touchdown spread. In fact, the math gives Iowa State a 54.7% chance of covering at +14 points based on the historical performance of the math model and I think the situation adds a bit to that percentage.

One of the reasons we have line value on the side of Iowa State is because they look worse than they actually are while Oklahoma State average scoring margin has been enhanced by their +12 turnover margin, which is pretty much just good luck. The Cowboys are +6 in fumble margin, which is 90% random and their +6 in interceptions is also mostly luck. There is a strong correlation between passes defended (interceptions plus passes broken up) and interceptions and in general about 22% of passes defended are interceptions. It makes sense that the more balls a defense gets their hands on the more interceptions they’ll get. Oklahoma State has 14 interceptions, which is 36% of their 39 passes defended and the Cowboys’ quarterbacks have had 8 of their 44 passes defended result in interceptions (18%). An argument can be made the Oklahoma State should be negative in interception margin given that their opponents have 5 more passes defended than their defense has but my algorithm, which is a combination of passes defended and completion percentage projects a +1.4 interception margin for Oklahoma State. Overall, Oklahoma State projects at +2.0 in turnover margin rather than the +12 that they are through 9 games. That’s about 4 points per game of turnover variance and one of the reasons why Oklahoma State is not as good as their scores make them out to be. Iowa State’s -6 in turnovers is also mostly random (they projected at -1.9 turnovers) and the difference in actual and projected turnovers is 1.6 points per game. I think the value my math model sees in this game has a lot to do with the contrary nature of turnovers.

The combination of the math and situation call for a play on Iowa State and I’m okay with bucking Oklahoma State laying this many points on the road. The Cowboys beat Texas Tech 70-53 on the road thanks to a +2 in turnovers (only +33 in yards) but they only won at Central Michigan by 11 points, at Texas by 3 points, and needed overtime to win at West Virginia. Iowa State has had mixed results against good teams, as they lost by 36 points last week to Oklahoma (although that wins sets them up in a bounce-back situation this week) and by 35 points to Texas Tech. However, the Cyclones were tied with unbeaten Iowa in the 4th quarter before the Hawkeyes pulled away to win by 14 (scored their last TD with 1:05 left in the game), they went to overtime at Toledo and played really well in an 18 point loss at Baylor. Hopefully we get the competitive version of the Cyclones today. I’ll take Iowa State in a 1-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.

Strong Opinion – NORTH CAROLINA (-13) 42 Miami-Florida 24

Sat Nov-14-2015 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 174 Over/Under 65.5 - Matchup Stats
North Carolina lost their opening game 13-17 against South Carolina but they outplayed the Gamecocks in that loss and the Tarheels have outplayed every team they’ve faced since during their 8 game winning streak. UNC has been underrated during their run, going 6-2 ATS (although they failed to cover when I had them against Virginia), and there is still some value in backing the Heels this week. Miami was exposed a few weeks ago by Clemson, as their turnover luck came to a crashing halt (+13 their first 6 games and -3 in their last 3 games). Miami is a better than average team, rating at 0.6 yards per play better than average on offense with Brad Kaaya at quarterback and rating at 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively, but that’s not nearly good enough to hang with the explosive Tarheels.

Miami’s mediocre defense poses not challenge for an incredible North Carolina offense that ranks #1 in compensated yards per play, averaging an incredible 7.8 yards per play in 7 games against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. North Carolina is a big play offense but the Tarheels are also incredibly consistent, which is a rare combination. It’s not often that a quarterback will average 15 yards per completion while completing 66% of his passes, which is what Marquise Williams is doing. Oh, and Williams has also run for 626 yards at 8.5 yards per run (not including sacks, which are pass plays), so when he can’t find a receiver open for a big pass play downfield he simply runs the ball for a first down. Williams can also hand the ball off to Elijah Wood, who is averaging 5.9 yards per run, so there is just no way to stop this offense, which has averaged 7.0 yards per play or more in all 7 of their games against FBS competition. That’s amazingly consistent production and I project over 8 yards per play for the Tarheels in this game, which would be the 4th time in 5 games to reach that lofty level should they live up to expectations.

Miami’s offense, at 0.6 yppl better than average, has an advantage over a North Carolina stop unit that’s been solid in allowing just 19.9 points per game and rating at 0.2 yppl better than average. However, the 421 yards at 5.7 yppl that my math model projects for Miami doesn’t figure to be enough to keep up with what North Carolina is likely to score and my math model gives the Tarheels a 54% chance of covering based solely on the math. UNC also applies to a 127-50-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation while Miami applies to a 48-106-2 ATS road underdog letdown situation based on last week’s close win over Virginia. I’ll consider North Carolina a Strong Opinion at -13 ½ points or less and I’d take the Tarheels in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less, which is the number at which they’d officially qualify as a math play.

*Southern Miss (-7 -115) 38 RICE 25

Sat Nov-14-2015 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 175 Over/Under 61.0 - Matchup Stats
Southern Miss is 6-3 straight up and 7-2 ATS and the Eagles’ only losses have been as a big dog to a power 5 conference team (16-34 at Miss State and 28-36 at Nebraska, covered in both) or against a good defensive team (10-31 at Marshall). Rice is the opposite of a good defensive team and the Eagles’ better than average attack (509 yards at 6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team) has put up big numbers against bad defensive teams this season. Southern Miss has faced 6 bad defensive teams this season (Austin Peay, Texas State, North Texas, UTSA, Charlotte and UTEP) and the Eagles have scored an average of 44.5 points in those games while averaging 7.4 yards per play or more in 5 of those 6 games. Rice has allowed an average of 38.5 points on 460 yards at 7.3 yppl in 8 games against FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. Southern Miss would average 5.9 yppl on the road against an average FBS defense, so the Eagles’ attack is a bit better than the average of teams that Rice has faced. My math model projects 501 yards at 7.6 yppl for Southern Miss in this game, which should put them in the 34 to 42 points range – and possibly higher given their 44.5 points average against bad defensive team.

Rice has averaged 24.5 points and 5.4 yards per play this season against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl to an average team. The Southern Miss defense has the same rating for the season as the average of teams that Rice has faced and the math projects 378 yards at 5.5 yppl for the Owls in this game, which should put them right around their season average of 24.5 points. That number would be even lower if I used the more recent defensive numbers for Southern Miss, as the Eagles have improved since giving up an average of 40 points and 7.4 yppl in their first 3 FBS games (Miss State, N. Texas and Nebraska). In their last 5 games Southern Miss has allowed just 15.6 points and 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.4 yppl against an average defensive team. I’m not sure why Southern Miss has gotten better defensively and I used their worse than average season numbers in my model. However, if the Eagles’ defensive improvement is real and not just variance then Southern Miss would be an even better bet here.

Rice has a 4-5 record, which doesn’t seem so bad, but the Owls’ 4 wins have come against really bad teams (Wagner, North Texas, Florida Atlantic, and Army) that are all at least 17 points worse than an average FBS team. Rice has struggled against decent or good teams, losing by an average of 26 points to Texas, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech and by 53 points to Baylor. Southern Miss isn’t quite as good as any of those teams but their offense is better than average and Rice has given up 42 points or more to the 4 better than average offensive teams that they’ve faced and the Eagles have a good chance of reaching that number too. My math model gives Southern Miss a 55.7% chance of covering at -7 points and I’ll take Southern Miss in a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 at -120 odds or better.

***CINCINNATI (-16) 54 Tulsa 28

Sat Nov-14-2015 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 120 Over/Under 76.5 - Matchup Stats
Both of these teams are 5-4 but Cincinnati is a much, much better team than Tulsa. The Bearcats are coming off a 30-33 road loss against unbeaten Houston in a game they should have won. Cincy outgained Houston 585 yards at 8.5 yards per play to 438 yards at 5.2 yppl and the Bearcats’ offense has been incredible since quarterback Gunner Kiel returned from injury. With Kiel at the helm the last 3 weeks Cincinnati’s attack has averaged 657 total yards at 8.8 yards per play while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average offense. For the season the Bearcats have averaged 578 yards at 7.2 yppl in 8 games against FBS opponents that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. The numbers that unit is likely to put up against a Tulsa are staggering. The Golden Hurricane have allowed an average of 37.3 points on 524 yards per game at 6.4 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that is collectively slightly below average offensively (an average defensive team would allow 5.5 yppl to that same schedule). Tulsa has faced 3 really good offensive teams this season and the Hurricane have allowed an average of 52 points on 710 yards at 7.9 yards per play in those games against Oklahoma, Houston, and Memphis. Cincinnati’s offense is 0.6 yppl better than the average rating of those 3 good offensive teams and the math projects 745 yards at 8.5 yppl for the Bearcats in this game. Cincinnati has only faced one bad defensive teams all season (2 if you count FCS team Alabama A&M) and the Bearcats scored 52 points in that game against UCF a couple of weeks ago in a Best Bet win (they also scored 52 against Alabama A&M). I just don’t see how Tulsa will be able to stop Cincy’s attack now that they’re clicking on all cylinders with Kiel back behind center and RB Mike Boone healthy again (496 rushing yards at 9.2 ypr this season and 1146 yards at 7.4 ypr in his career). My math model actually predicts 60 points for Cincinnati in this game but the Bearcats haven’t been scoring as many points as their stats would predict, so their predicted points has been adjusted down based on the scoring efficiencies of Cincy’s offense and Tulsa’s defense (adjusted for turnover variance).

With Cincinnati likely to score in the 50s Tulsa would have to score at least in the high 30s to cover the spread and I don’t think that’s likely. Tulsa has scored 40 points or more on 5 different occasions this season but 4 of those were against really bad defensive teams and it’s likely that the Golden Hurricane score fewer than their 36 points average against a Cincy defense that’s better than the average defense they’ve faced this season. Tulsa’s offense averages 510 yards and 36 points a game but that’s a function of running a lot of plays in their up tempo system. Tulsa is actually a below average offensive team that has averaged their 6.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack. Tulsa also hasn’t been nearly as good offensively since star WR Keevan Lucas was injured back in early October. Lucas caught 101 passes for 1219 yards last season and had 26 catches for 409 yards at 10.0 yards per pass thrown to him through 4 games this season. In 5 games without Lucas the Tulsa offense, which is 0.1 yppl worse than average for the season, has been 0.7 yppl worse than average. The raw passing numbers don’t look much worse at 7.1 yards per pass play in their last 5 games but the 5 teams that Tulsa has faced without Lucas would allow 7.4 yppp to an average quarterback, so the Hurricane pass attack has been significantly worse without Lucas than their season rating of +0.9 yppp. I actually attribute a lot of that to variance but it’s clear that Tulsa isn’t as good offensively without their star receiver.

Cincinnati’s defense is 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl) but that’s 0.3 yppl better than the average defense that Tulsa has faced – so they’re unlikely to reach their per game averages and my math projects 444 yards and only 27.5 points for Tulsa.

My math model is overwhelmingly in favor of Cincinnati to crush Tulsa in this game and I can certainly envision that playing out, especially with the Bearcats’ offense playing their best right now while the Tulsa offense has been 0.7 yards per play below average over their last 5 games without star receiver Keevan Lucas. I’ll take Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -18 and for 1-Star up to -20.

***UCLA (-9 ½) 40 Washington State 22

Sat Nov-14-2015 at 07:45 PM Pacific Rotation: 166 Over/Under 65.5 - Matchup Stats
Washington State started their season with a home loss as a 31 point favorite to Portland State but the Cougars have rebounded to win 6 of 8 games and they covered the spread in their two losses (a 6 point loss at Cal and a 2 point home loss to Stanford). Wazzou has actually covered the spread in all 6 of their conference games this season but my math model thinks that streak will come to an end and I really like the match up of UCLA’s great pass defense against a Cougars’ attack that throws the ball 75% of the time.

Washington State averages 394 pass yards per game but the Cougars are actually worse than average in compensated yards per pass play, as quarterback Luke Falk has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Falk is a better than average quarterback because he has only thrown 7 interceptions on 503 pass attempts but the Air Raid attack consisting of short passes depends a lot on yards after the catch and that is something that is tough to come by when facing UCLA’s defense. UCLA has allowed just 55% completions and only 9.9 yards per completion, which ranks among the best in the nation, so Washington State’s array of slants and bubble screens is not going to be as effective as usual against the Bruins. Cal head coach Sonny Dykes learned his offense by coaching under Washington State head coach Mike Leach and Cal has a quarterback in Jared Goff (the #2 rated NFL QB prospect) that can also throw the deep ball in addition to the quick passes that make up the bulk of the Air Raid attack. Cal’s compensated yards per pass play rating is 1.9 yppp better than Washington State’s pass rating and UCLA shut down Goff and the Bears, holding Cal to just 4.6 yards per pass play in a 40-24 home win a few weeks ago. For the season UCLA’s defense has allowed only 5.0 yppp to a collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team and they match up particularly well against the type of offense that Washington State runs. The Bruins’ defensive weakness is defending the run (5.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp) but Washington State’s pass heavy attack is not going to take advantage of that relative weakness but rather will play right into the strength of the UCLA defense. My math model projects Washington State to average only 4.7 yards per pass play and 4.8 yards per play in this game.

Washington State’s defense doesn’t get a lot of credit because they’ve given up 417 yards and 30 points per game but they are actually pretty solid overall on the stop side of the ball. The Cougars have to face a lot of plays because their offense creates more possessions per game for both teams, but they actually rate at 0.1 yppl better than average defensively, allowing 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense. However, that unit is at a disadvantage against a balanced UCLA attack that averages over 200 yards by land and by air and has averaged 495 yards at 6.6 yppl overall - against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack. The Bruins are hard to defend because they are better than average both running and throwing the football, and in this game they’ll take advantage of a Washington State defense that has allowed 5.9 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yprp against an average defense). The Cougars have faced 3 good running teams in Oregon, Arizona and Stanford and they’ve allowed those teams to average 283 rushing yards at 7.4 yards per rushing play. That’s not a good omen for them today. I project UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen to have better than average numbers (6.6 yppp) but the Bruins will be happy to hand the ball off to All Pac 12 RB Paul Perkins (961 yards at 6.0) and his talented group of backups (the next 3 backs have combined for 829 yards at 6.3 ypr), who will take advantage of that soft Wazzou defensive front. My math model projects 6.2 yards per rushing play and 478 yards at 6.4 yards per play for the Bruins in this game, which should produce around 40 points.

My math model takes match ups into account and UCLA’s match up advantage of their strong pass defense against a Washington State teams that throws the ball 75% of the time has created value and my math model gives the Bruins a 60.6% chance of covering at -9 ½ points based solely on the math (58.4% at -10, 56.2% at -10.5, and 55.5% at -11). However, that chance is enhanced by a 132-59-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation that applies to the Bruins. The situations haven’t worked well so far this season but historically the win percentage of my math plays is higher when a significant situation applies to the same side, which is what we have here. I’ll take UCLA in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -11 points and for 1-Star up to -12 (Strong Opinion up to -13 ½).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EXECUTIVE

500 Washington
400 Houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WISEGUY INSIDER

PLAY OF THE DAY

NCAAF: Oregon +9