11-15-15

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Joe Gavazzi

NFL STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK… Pittsburgh Steelers (-5-)

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5-) 1:00 ET
At first glance, this seems like an odd call for our NFL STEAMROLLER of the week. QB McCown, a far better choice than QB Manziel the last two weeks, takes over the signal caller spot for the Browns in this one. The Steelers, meanwhile, are most probably without their starting Center, Pouncey, starting RB, Bell, and starting QB in Roethlisberger. In baseball terms, that makes the Steelers weak up the middle. That thrusts third string QB Landry Jones into the signal caller spot, with RB Deangelo Williams toting the rock. That is exactly what the game plan must be for a 5-4 SU Pittsburgh team who believes they have a Wild Card in their grasp, against a 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS Cleveland Browns team who has lost four consecutive starts, and scored only 36 points combined in their most recent three games. But let’s get back to those numbers that make this game plan of QB Jones handing the ball to RB William so successful. At the point of attack, Cleveland is allowing opponents to run 31 times a game for 148/4.7. THAT IS THE WORST RUSH DEFENSE IN THE NFL. The Steelers are averaging 133/5.1 overland. They would be crazy to do anything other than run the football against this opponent. Especially after seeing division foe Cincinnati crush Cleveland 31-10 last Thursday night with a 152-69 overland advantage. It’s not like the Browns aren’t losing on this field, which has happened 11 straight times by an average of 14 PPG.

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M and M handicapping

5* kc +5
4* ten +4
4* sea/az under 44

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Maddux

10* Kansas City +7
10* Detroit/Green Bay over 47.5
10* Miami +6

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Dave Essler

3* Redskins

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Indian Cowboy


6-Unit Play. #254. Take Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5 over Dallas Cowboys
3-Unit Play. #256. Take Tennessee Titans +5.5 over Carolina Panthers
3-Unit Play. #269. Take Kansas City Chiefs +6 over Denver Broncos
3-Unit Play. #273. Take Over 44.5 Arizona vs. Seattle

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Robert Ferringo


4-units - Browns +5


2-units

Bears
Eagles
Seahawks

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Strike Point Sports



5-Unit Play. Take #257 Chicago (+7.5) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 15)

The Chicago Bears are better than people think. I feel like I am saying that same phrase almost every other weekend. Chicago has played an extremely tough schedule and dealt with more adversity than most teams in the NFL, and yet they play hard each and every game. They will keep this game within 3-4 points. Similar to many of my Bears plays thus far this season I actually think they can win this game outright. The Bears defense, again better than people think, will slow down the Rams offense enough to keep this game well inside a touchdown. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Rams meanwhile are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games versus the Bears. Chicago has one of the best defenses in the league, ranked ninth overall on the season. They will be able to completely shut down the Rams passing attack as the Bears have the fifth best pass defense in the league. This will cause St. Louis to focus even more on the rushing game, turning them into a one-dimensional opponent. This game is going to come down to a field goal either way.


3-Unit Play. Take #253 Dallas (+1.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 15)

I just don't like the Bucs in this spot. I do however love the Cowboys. Dallas has played much better over the last three weekends. They had a tough luck loss versus the Giants, another difficult loss versus the Seahawks, and then nearly beat the Eagles last weekend. This team is starting to figure out how to play without Tony Romo, and this will be the game that breaks their six-game losing streak. The Cowboys are getting solid play from Darren McFadden and Dez Bryant is nearly 100 percent. Look for the Cowboys to make enough plays to win this game by nearly a touchdown. Dallas is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on grass and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Cowboys are also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with Tampa Bay. Take the Boys in this one as they break the Tony Romoless streak.


3-Unit Play. Take #274 Seattle (-3) over Arizona (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 15)

This is a huge spot for the Seahawks. They haven't looked nearly as good as they have the past few seasons but this team knows what it takes to win the big game. Arizona currently has a two-game lead over the Seahawks for the Division lead and this will go a long way to help Seattle control the tiebreaker between the two teams. The Seahawks haven't played in front of their home fans in nearly a month. This crowd is going to be even more rowdy than they typically are. Seattle is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games versus the NFC West and 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS loss. Both teams are coming in to this game off their bye week, but that bodes well for Seattle and not Arizona. The Cards are 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off their bye. The favorite is the play in this series as they are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams. Arizona doesn't fair well in Seattle either as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to the home of the Seahawks.

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Vegas Sports Informer



3 Unit Play. Take #252 Over 48 Detroit at Green Bay (1:05p.m., Sunday November 15)

Was thinking about playing both Green Bay and the OVER but I see the OVER in this game being the play. The Packers offense must be thrilled to play this game because last two games the Packers had to face the Carolina defense and the Denver defense. Sunday I see Aaron Rodgers picking apart the Lions defense and it wouldn't shock me to see Green Bay score 48 points or more at home. Lions defense has been giving up points pretty easy and the Lions 'D' is giving up average of 37.3ppg in their last 4 games. Green Bay is 5-1 O/U against division teams and the Packers are 5-1 O/U following a SU loss.


4 Unit Play. Take #268 Oakland -3 over Minnesota (4:05p.m., Sunday November 15)

If you would have told me that Sunday Week #10 in the NFL the Oakland Raiders will be 4-4 and would have said you are crazy but I have been wrong with a couple of teams all season long. Watching the Raiders play this year is fun and their offense as of late has been nothing but brilliant. Yes I know the Raiders lost last week in Pittsburgh but playing in Pittsburgh is tough and the Raiders scored 35 points on the road. Derek Carr and the offense of Oakland is getting better every week and Sunday at home I see them taking care of the Minnesota Vikings. Oakland is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games and if Carr gets time in the pocket he will pick apary the Vikings defense.


6 Unit Play. Take #273 Under 45 Arizona at Seattle (8:30p.m., Sunday November 15 NBC)

Two teams that use great team defense to win games and Sunday night in Seattle we should see a tight, nail biter, and hard hitting game from both teams. Both teams are coming off their bye weeks and I heard from both teams practices they both were stressing defense, defense, and more defense. Seahawks last home game they let Carolina score 27 points and win that game so I see a much better defensive Seahawks team Sunday night. Arizona also plays great team defense and we should see a very cautious game from both teams and wouldn't shock me to see neither teams score over 25 points. Last 7 meetings in Seattle 6 of them have gone UNDER and the Seahawks are also 1-5 O/U against NFC teams. Arizona has gone UNDER 14 of their last 21 games as an underdog and again this game will go UNDER.

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Prediction Machine NFL Lock

251 Detroit +11.5

251 1:00 PM DET @ GB 11.5 -8.9 57.2 $51
256 1:00 PM @TEN CAR 4.5 -1.7 57.2 $51
265 1:00 PM JAC @ BAL 5.5 -2.9 56.7 $45
273 8:30 PM ARI @ SEA 3 -0.3 56.5 $43
269 4:25 PM KC @ DEN 6.5 -4.4 55.8 $36
257 1:00 PM CHI @ STL 8 -6.3 54.9 $26
271 4:25 PM NE @ NYG -7 8.9 54.9 $26
268 4:05 PM @OAK MIN -3 4.9 54.9 $26
264 1:00 PM @PIT CLE -4.5 6.4 54.8 $25

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Sports Insights

NFL Best Bets 19-21 -3.43 units

Game Time (ET) Play Best Line
11/15 1:00 PM 251 Play on DET 11.5-108
11/15 1:00 PM 256 Play on TEN 5.5-108
11/15 1:00 PM 263 Play on CLE 5-110

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Spartan Pregame

Triple Dime - NYG +7.5

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Burns

Best bet - Mia
Cust app - det
Gow - cle
Blue marlin - sea
Inter/conf total/yr - Caro/tenn under

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Norm Hitzges NFL FOOTBALL


DOUBLE PLAYS:

• Green Bay -11 1/2 Detroit
• Dallas +1 1/2 Tampa
  
  SINGLE PLAYS
  

• Minnesota +3 Oakland
• Kansas City +5 1/2 Denver
• Tennessee +5 1/2 Carolina
• NY Giants +7 New England
• Philadelphia -6 Miami
• Arizona +3 Seattle
• Jacksonville---Baltimore OVER 47 1/2

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Jeff barone sports
nfl- carolina/tennessee under 44 (1pm) ** 2 unit selection **
nfl- dallas +1 tampa bay (1pm)

PATRICK DAME- "The Numbers Guru"
NFL - NEW ORLEANS pk WASHINGTON (1PM) ** 2 UNIT SELECTION **
NFL- TENNESSEE +5 CAROLINA

NFL- NEW ENGLAND -7 NY GIANTS (4PM) ** 2 UNIT SELECTION **
NFL- ST LOUIS -6.5 CHICAGO (1PM)
NFL- JACKSONVILLE/BALTIMORE UNDER 47.5 (1PM)david mires

Larry "football"
nfl- green bay -10 detroit (1pm) ** 2 unit selection **
nfl- minesota +3 oakland (4pm)
nfl- kansas city +5.5 denver (4pm)