12-13-15

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Indian Cowboy
NBA:
3-Unit Play. #506. Take Detroit PK
CBB
3-Unit Play. #733. Take Louisiana-Monroe +21 over West Virginia (Sunday @ 5pm est)
5-Unit Play. #738. Take Houston -2 over LSU (Sunday @ 5:30pm est)
3-Unit Play. #729. Take Alabama +7 over Clemson (Sunday @ 6pm est)

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Texas Insiders

100 Tennessee

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Preferred Picks

4 Pittsburgh

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Rob Ferringo (Hoops)


1-Unit Play. Take #718Nebraska (-1) over Rhode Island (2 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
This is a revenge spotfor an improving Nebraska team. They lost in overtime against the Rams lastyear, but this time around I think they will get the W. The Cornhuskers havegone 27-13 ATS at home over the last two seasons and I think that they will beready to play in this one.


1-Unit Play. Take #719Tulsa (-5.5) over Missouri State (3 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
I'm going with the betterteam here. Missouri State has won back-to-back games, but neither wasimpressive. They took down an Oklahoma State team that's been decimated byinjuries and then beat IUPUI. Tulsa is a bit different animal, and the GoldenHurricanes are off a nice win and cover against Iona. Tulsa is one of the mostexperienced teams in the country and these guys know how to hold it together onthe road. I think they will grind out a win here.


1-Unit Play. Take #721St. Joseph's (+4) over Temple (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
I will take the points inthis rivalry matchup. I actually think that St. Joe's is the better team here.They won this rivalry game last year and the underdog has gone 4-2 ATS in thelast six meetings (3-1 ATS in the last four). The Hawks' only losses have comeagainst Villanova and Florida, so they have been sharp in the year's earlygoing. I think that Temple has played a bit above itself. Their win overMinnesota - the lone highlight on their resume - is not impressive at all. Andthey have lost to every Top 100 team that they've faced this season. I'll takethe points with the better squad.


2-Unit Play. Take #729Alabama (+7) over Clemson (6 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)
I can't really figure outwhy Clemson is this big of a favorite. The Tigers are not playing on campusthis year while Littlejohn undergoes a facelift. That will destroy any hope ofa home court advantage for Clemson. Alabama has played an absurdly moredifficult schedule this year and they have slowly but surely improved each timeout. Alabama can counter Clemson's size on the interior and if the Crimson Tideare good enough to beat Wichita State and Notre Dame then they are good enoughto beat a middling Clemson team.


1-Unit Play. FIRST HALF:Take #734 West Virginia (-12) over UL-Monroe (5 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #741Weber State (-2) over Denver (2 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #746Illinois State (-4.5) over Murray State (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)


1-Unit Play. Take #756New Mexico State (-8.5) over Wyoming (9 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)

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Parlay Locks

Bet 1: Single Bet
(105) PITTSBURGH STEELERS +3 (Buy 1/2pt)
2* UNIT

Bet 2: FB 7pt 2-Team Teaser
(110) CAROLINA PANTHERS -1
(131) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -4
1* UNIT

Bet 3: FB 7pt 2-Team Teaser
(107) BUFFALO BILLS +8
(125) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +3.5
1* UNIT

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Joe Gavazzi
5% baltimore
4 dallas
4 hou
3 pitt

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Top NFL Public Bets <<Sunday Update>>

#1 125 New England Patriots 79%
#2 131 Seattle Seahawks 75%
#3 115 Detroit Lions 74%
#4 130 Green Bay Packers 74%
#5 133 New York Giants 72%
#6 107 Buffalo Bills 66%
#7 111 San Francisco 49ers 61%
#8 114 Chicago Bears 59%
#9 128 Denver Broncos 58%
#10 124 New York Jets 58%

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JR Tipps

Indy over
TB
Jets
VIP NE under

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Dr. Bob - Hoops

*PITTSBURGH (-13) over Morehead State
01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 740
Pitt is coming off an easy 84-51 win over Eastern Washington and the Panthers are vastly improved over last year’s disappointing season. I don’t expect Pitt to continue to make 42% of their 3-points shots (I project 37.7% going forward) but the Panthers are still better offensively and they’re much improved on the defensive side of the floor, where they really struggled last season. Pitt was traditionally ranked in the top 30 in compensated defensive efficiency under coach Jamie Dixon but last season they were 201st in that metric. The message to give more effort on defense has gotten through, as this year’s team ranks 26th in my variance adjusted defensive efficiency (they’ve actually been better but I don’t expect their opponents to continue to make just 59% of their free throws). Pitt is not as good as their scores have shown, as they’ve had about 5 points of positive variance per game in their favor, but they’re still underrated and my ratings, which adjust for variance, favor the Panthers by 16 points in this game. Morehead was crushed 59-92 at Indiana in their only game stepping up in class and the Eagles should have a tough time scoring against Pitt’s improved defense (unless they knock down a high percentage of 3-point shots). I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 1-Star Best Bet at -13 or less.

Note: I released this play to my subscribers at 8:30 am PST when the line was -13. I still lean with Pitt at -14 or -13.5.

*Memphis (+3) over MIAMI
03:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 703
The fortunes of these teams changed with the trade that sent Mario Chalmers from Miami to Memphis in mid-November. Chalmers wasn’t playing well statistically with Miami but the Heat haven’t been as good since he left (5-9 ATS) while Memphis has certainly gotten better. The Grizzlies have been outscored by 128 total points this season (a lot due to a 50 point loss to GSW) but they’re +43 points with Chalmers in the game and Memphis was 3-5 straight up and 2-6 ATS before Chalmers arrived and they’re 10-6 straight up and 7-9 ATS with him. Part of the reason Miami is worse and Memphis is better is simply due to regression to the mean in 3-point offense and defense, as Memphis was shooting 26% and allowing 41% before Chalmers arrived and Miami was shooting 34% and allowing just 27% before the trade. Those numbers would have regressed to the mean regardless of whether Chalmers was traded or not but I do believe Chalmers is a positive impact player and certainly an upgrade over Beno Udrih, who was the backup pointguard in Memphis before the trade (and is now at Miami). I’m not a fan of either of these teams but my ratings favor Miami by just ½ a point in this game and Memphis hasn’t lost consecutive games since the trade (5-0 straight up after a loss since then). I’ll take Memphis in a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

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Big Move Consensus

600 is cowboys +7

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Seabass

700 San Diego
300 Houston
300 Dallas
200 Cleveland
200 Chicago
200 Oakland

300 3 team 10 point tease: Pit, NO, Seattle

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executive

goy 650 packers

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Millionaires club
strong
green bay

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Millionaires club
lock
jets under

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Ny vip club

animal kindom

seahawks -10.5
bengals -1
bears -4