1-16-16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Moves Consensus
700 Bos/Wash u103 1H

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob


**UTAH (-7) over L.A. Lakers
I realize that Derrick Favors is out again for Utah but the Jazz are an average team without Favors as long as Randy Gobert is playing. In 6 games without Favors but with Gobert the Jazz are 3-3 straight up with an average game rating of +0.3 points. Gobert is the key, as he leads the Jazz with a +64 plus-minus while Favors’ PM is -40 points. Favors is -7.0 points per 48 minutes when Gobert is not on the court with him while Gobert is +3.5 points per 48 minutes playing without Favors. Utah is best when they’re playing together (+6.8 points per 48) but the Jazz are a decent team with Gobert playing even with Favors out and that fact is not reflected in the line. Kobe Bryant is probable to play, which is great since he’s the 2nd worst on the Lakers at -13.2 points per 48 minutes when he’s on the court. My ratings, based on current personnel, favor Utah by 11 points so it’s obvious that Favors’ being out has been over-adjusted for in the line. Utah just beat the Lakers by 12 points in LA 6 days ago with the same lineup they’ll put on the court tonight and the two Jazz losses since then (to Portland and Sacramento) were a function of significant 3-point variance (26.4% for Utah and 43.2% for their opponents). Those losses probably helped with the line value we’re getting. The Lakers have lost 16 of their 24 road games by 8 points or more and the Jazz have the same rating as the average opponent the Lakers have played on the road. There’s a good chance that the Lakers lose this game by 8 points or more too and I’ll take Utah in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less
Opinion – MISSISSIPPI STATE (-3) over Tennessee


12:30 PM Pacific, Rotation: 576
Tennessee G Armani Moore has just been declared out with a sprained ankle and the Vols don’t have quality depth so Moore’s absence should be felt. There aren’t a lot of guards that lead their team in assists, rebounds (7.9 rpg) and blocked shots (2.0 per game!) and I favor Miss State by 5 points with Moore out. I’ll lean with Miss State at -3 points or less.