1-24-16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

10 Top Total Play · Over [311] New England Patriots vs. [312] Denver Broncos
The Wallace Report Sun Jan 24th, 2016 3:00pm EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

ARIZONA

New England
Under NE / Denver
Under Zona / Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive

400 - den
300 - ariz
250 - ore st

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OC Dooley

3* over central fla

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE MACHINE

Patriots -2.5 (buy half)
*10 units*

Cardinals +3.5 (buy half)
*10 units*

Leans
Patriots ML
Cardinals ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril
3% play) NEW ENGLAND -3 (at Denver) - 3:05 pm ET (CBS) #311

New England played in Denver earlier this season, and the Patriots held a 21-7 lead in the fourth quarter before inexplicably losing 30-24 in overtime. New England’s offense was less than 100% healthy with multiple offensive injuries in that game, so it was even more impressive they held a two touchdown lead after three quarters of play. The Patriots are now back at full strength on offense, and as we saw last week, New England is an efficient team that is extremely difficult to stop. Overall, the Patriots are averaging 28.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 23 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. New England is the best scheming team in the NFL, and quarterback Tom Brady has one of the quickest releases. That ability negates Denver’s pass rush which in turn makes a short passing game very dangerous, especially with the Broncos’ best cover guy, Chris Harris, playing with an injured shoulder. New England knows they’ll have little success running on Denver, so we expect to see the Patriots spread the Broncos out and dink and dunk their way downfield.

Denver beat Pittsburgh 23-16 last week, but the Broncos were fortunate. The Steelers played without their top wide receiver and their top running back while quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had a bad throwing shoulder. Despite that, Pittsburgh’s offense racked-up 396 yards of total offense in that game and held a dominating 6.7 to 4.6 yards per play advantage. Denver’s offense was also facing a terrible Pittsburgh secondary that left receivers wide open, and despite that, QB Peyton Manning completed just 21 of his 37 passes for 222 yards. Overall, Manning is completing only 57.4% (93-162) of his passes with a horrendous 1/8 touchdown/interception ratio at home this season. The Patriots are only giving up 19.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. Denver’s offense is only averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite facing defenses that allow 22.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. New England is the better team, especially on offense, so we’ll lay the points with the Patriots in the AFC Championship game on Sunday afternoon.

Play PATRIOTS (-) as a 3% play.

-------------------

(additional opinions)

(1% opinion) ARIZONA +3 -105 (at Carolina) - 6:40 pm ET (FOX) #313

NOTE: The public is backing Carolina in this game, so this line might rise higher to +3.5 closer to kickoff.

Arizona is 14-3 SU on the season as they’ve combined an explosive offense with a shutdown defense. The Cardinals have played back-to-back poor offensive games, but we expect a peak performance in this game. Arizona is averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 22.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. The Cardinals’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 32.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play away from home. Arizona’s defense has also played above average football this season. The Cardinals are only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 21.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. Arizona’s defense is only giving up 18.7 points per game on the road this season.

Carolina is obviously a very good team with a 16-1 SU record, but this a bad matchup for the Panthers. Carolina’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak collection of opposing offenses that only averaged 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season. Against good offenses, the Panthers gave up 24 points to Seattle, 29 points to Green Bay, 38 points to New Orleans, and 35 points to the New York Giants. Carolina’s offense also faced poor defenses that gave up 24.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season; Arizona’s defense is allowing 4.7 points per game less than the opponents the Panthers faced. These two teams are even across the board, so we’ll take Arizona plus the points in the NFC Championship game on Sunday night.

-------------------

(1% opinion) OVER 47 (Cardinals/Panthers) - 6:40 pm ET (FOX) #313

Arizona’s offense is averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 22.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. The Cardinals’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 32.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play away from home. Quarterback Carson Palmer has completed 63.5% (367-578) of his passes for 5,020 yards with an excellent 38/13 touchdown/interception ratio. Palmer is averaging a whopping 8.7 yards per pass attempt. Palmer will face a young and inexperienced Carolina cornerback in Robert McClain who the Panthers just signed on December 15th. The Panthers also play older veterans in the secondary, so the young and fast Arizona wide receivers will exploit that unit for big plays downfield just like Seattle did last week.

Carolina also has a strong offense that is averaging 32.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season. The Panthers have a good passing game at home where they are averaging 236.7 yards per game thru the air on 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has thrown for 3,998 yards this season with an excellent 36/10 touchdown/interception ratio. Carolina’s offense will score their share of points against an Arizona defense that has allowed 56 points in their last two games and is weaker without injured safety Tyrann Mathieu. The Panthers have scored 24 points or more in every home game this season. Look for a high-scoring NFC Championship game between the Cardinals and Panthers on Sunday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BANKERS SPORTS WIRE
lock
CAROLINA UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MILLIONAIRES CLUB
strong
DENVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS BANK
lock
ARIZONA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TOUCHDOWN CLUB
strong
ARIZONA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris James Sports

7-0 this week in College hoops

Northern Kentucky
East Carolina
Wright St

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

10* - New England -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WorldSportPicks

NFL:
5U - Panthers -3
2U - Broncos TT o20.5

NCAAB:
3U - USC -2
3U - Monmouth -17.5
2U - Sienna +2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SkyBluePicks

3:00pm ET - New England Patriots -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Unlimited

15 Denver ( 6% PLAYOFF GAME OF YEAR)
5 Arizona