2-7-16

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Dave Essler

Super Bowl

Double-Dime Carolina Panthers -5

(said take it up to -6)

Single Dime Under 45 Carolina Panthers/Denver Broncos


Props:

#1182: First TD rushing/Special Teams/Defensive +145
With two of the best defenses and two weeks to prepare - I'll take my chances, especially w/Newton

#621: Any Scoreless Quarter +250
Again, see defenses and turnovers - certainly worth that price

#3883: Denver scores 6 points in the first quarter
Almost a slight hedge if the game slides the wrong way early - plus, it IS Manning who IS capable

#4299: A horse collar penalty +525
Again, two aggressive defenses and at that price it's worth something

#4309: Offsetting penalties called +173
Because it seems to happen all the time - even early unsportsmanlike as refs take control a possibility

#6901: Aqib Talib intercepts a pass +300
Because we did this last year - he's been there/done that and may bait Newton

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The Champ, aka Tony Chau

Denver {A} bet - This is a confirmed official bet


Sacramento {B} bet - This is a confirmed official bet

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Worlds worstpicker

Carolina and over

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Betting Line Moves

Super Bowl

Under 44.5 Carolina Panthers/Denver Broncos

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Wayne Root

Trust Football Service

Millionaire
UNDER 45 Points Carolina Panthers/Denver Broncos


Pinnacle

Denver Broncos (+5½) over Carolina Panthers

Denver Broncos 1) Wayne''s LIFETIME RECORD (as a professional sports handicapper): 21 of 30 Super Bowls, 70% WINNERS! 2) Classic "Sharps vs Squares" matchup- every smart professional will be on Denver, every amateur on Carolina- because of hype about Cam. Edge: Denver and sharps. 3) This is an EXTREME version- as of today it''s the most lopsided Super Bowl betting in history...and one of the top 5 most lopsided of any NFL Postseason game EVER. *Classic exciting, sexy offense vs great D- masses of public always bet Offense (they can''t resist)...D almost always wins. I''ve bet games like this for 31 years. Edge: Denver. 4) The team with chip on shoulder almost always wins- that team is Denver. Disrespected, almost considered a chump in media. 2 years ago that team was Seattle versus Denver and Peyton! Now it''s Peyton. Edge: Denver. 5) Weather- Peyton is terrible in weather below 40 degrees. Has been his whole career. 2 years ago...he played in New York for Super Bowl. While balmy by NY in February standards, it was below 40 degrees. That hurt his effectiveness (and psychology). This Super Bowl will be in beautiful weather- as of now forecast is 68 degrees and sunny. Edge: Denver. 6) I always play the better D if they are getting points- statistically Denver is better D. Edge: Denver. 7) The team with better D and better Special Teams stats too, getting points, is almost unbeatable in postseason games. Denver has statistically better in BOTH. Edge: Denver. 8) Line moves- line opened +3 1/2. Today it''s 6. That alone is very significant. Those 2 1/2 points could determine the game. Denver now covers or pushes all the statistically important NFL numbers- 3, 4 and 6. Edge: Denver. 9) The team with the worst recordhas won almost every recent Super Bowl. Again that plays into "chip on shoulder" psychology. Carolina is 17-1. Edge: Denver. 10) The most important trend of all- the team that comes from behind in the most games during season has won almost every Super Bowl in modern history- it proves they deal well with adversity and play well under stress in a "big game." I define "come from behind" as behind 7 or more at any time in any game...and behind at any time in 2nd half. Carolina came from behind 6 times Denver 9 times Edge: Denver ---------------- According to William Hill US Sportsbook, 93% of the money wagered against the spread so far has come in on the Panthers. In addition, 81 percent of the tickets have had Carolina listed on them. Denver was a dark horse candidate to even make it to this point. No one should write the Broncos off quite yet, especially on the biggest stage of them all. And with the smartest QB to ever hit the field and with the best defense in the NFL backing him up. The key for Denver winning the Super Bowl is their number one ranked defense. They took apart the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. Von Miller and Demarcus Ware will need to get after Cam Newton and put him under the same pressure Tom Brady felt. The Broncos defense led the NFL in average yards allowed (283.2), sacks (52), has yielded 34 points and 568 total yards in two playoff games, and hit Tom Brady 23 times in the conference title game. The magic continues as defense wins Championships. Manning wins and then retires. (the money line is currently at +190).



12 Super Bowl Props

1) Denver. -2.5. +210

2) First score of game: Denver field goal.

3) Will there be an overtime. Yes, +700

4) Total points scored by Carolina. Under 25, -105

5) First team to score 10 PT''s or more; Denver. +140

6) Will the game be decided by exactly 3 points? Yes +350

7) MVP Von Miller. 20/1

8) Owen Daniels total receiving yards. Over 31.5. -120

9) Emmanuel Sanders total pass receptions over 5.5. -115

10) Will Denver score a TD in the 3rd quarter? Yes. +125

11) Alternative game total. Under 38.5 +240

12) Largest lead of game by either team. Under 13.5. +160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Colin Cowherd

Super Bowl

Carolina Panthers by 11 points

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Sportsinsights

Super Bowl

Under 45 Carolina Panthers/Denver Broncos

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Don Best Advantage

Denver Broncos +5.5

Under 45 Carolina Panthers/Denver Broncos

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Sports Reporter

Super Bowl

Carolina Panthers by 14

27-13

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Phil Steele

Super Bowl

Carolina Panthers by 10

27-17

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Marc Lawrence

Phone Plays

Denver Broncos

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Rainman

Super Bowl

Triple - Denver Broncos

Reg Play - Under Carolina Panthers/Denver Broncos

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Ben Burns

*HOT SIDE* Burns' 10* SUPER BOWL MAIN EVENT!

Denver Broncos +6

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CH Ballers

Super Bowl Pick

Denver Broncos +5.5

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Jeff Ma

Super Bowl Props

P. Manning UNDER 235.5 passing yards

Carolina players with a rushing attempt OVER 4.5 +130

He likes Carolina Panthers -3.5 & -4
He likes Carolina Panthers Moneyline value
He likes UNDER 45 Carolina Panthers/Denver Broncos