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Ken Thomson | CBB ML – Wednesday, Mar 9 2016 9:30PM
ML 534 UTEP (-125) vs 533 Fla. Int'l
triple-dime bet
Analysis: Tim Floyd’s team has played much better in the second half of Conference play winning ( 7 of 9 ) including their first road win of the season ay Florida International. UTEP was picked to come 4th in C-USA this season but got off to a rocky start. The Miners boast double digit scorers in Lee Moore
( 15 ppg ), Earvin Morris Jr. and Omega Harris both at ( 13 ppg ). The other two key cogs to this Miner Machine are former Oregon Duck, Dominic Artis ( 12 ppg / 5 apg ) & Terry Winn ( 10 ppg / 5 RB ). For Florida International things have been trending in the other direction. The Panthers have dropped nine of their last eleven contests.
I expect UTEP to take care of business by outscoring FIU both inside a nd out. The Miners are a dark horse to win the Conference USA Tourney. Daviyon Draper, Donte McGill & Adrian Diaz combine for 47 points per contest combined. UTEP averages 6 more ppg with similar styles. That’s what I like Texas El Paso minus 125 on the money line. -
StatFox Super Situations
NBA | UTAH at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog
67-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
13-10 this year. ( 56.5% | 2.0 units )
NBA | NEW YORK at PHOENIX
Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PHOENIX) off an upset win as a road underdog, with a losing record
51-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.1% | 27.5 units )
3-4 this year. ( 42.9% | -0.9 units )
NBA | MIAMI at MILWAUKEE
Play On - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (MILWAUKEE) after 2 or more consecutive losses, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team
163-94 since 1997. ( 63.4% | 59.6 units )
9-2 this year. ( 81.8% | 6.8 units )Comment
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StatFox Super Situations
CBB | MARQUETTE at ST JOHNS
Play Against - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ST JOHNS) revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 75 or more points, off a home loss against a conference rival
29-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
CBB | ARIZONA ST at OREGON ST
Play On - Any team (OREGON ST) revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points against opponent off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog
50-15 since 1997. ( 76.9% | 33.6 units )
CBB | TCU at TEXAS TECH
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game)
196-116 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.8% | 68.4 units )
24-12 this year. ( 66.7% | 10.8 units )Comment
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Steve's Six Pack Picks for Valspar Championship
This is one of the most difficult stops on Tour, and we want players who play well on tough courses. As you can tell by the picks we have looked to some experience as well.
RYAN MOORE 45/1 - Ryan Moore fits this course perfectly. Much like DJ and Bubba fit last week at the Blue Monster, Moore works perfectly for Copperhead. Last year he had the lead after 54 holes but crumbled in the final round en route to a 5th place finish. Moore is 31st in Strokes gained form tee to green and 40th in both scrambling and putting. Moore is coming off a 10th place finish at the Northern Trust Open and will be looking for his first win since the 2014 CIMB Classic.
WEBB SIMPSON 50/1 - The Wake Forest grad will look to pick up his first win since the 2013 Shriners this week. Webb enters playing very well with Top 17 finishes in his last 3 starts. He took some time off after his last tournament (Phoenix Open) but I like him to come back strong this week. He has 4 Top 10’s at the Copperhead Course and I really like him to make it 5 this week. Simpson is 4th on Tour for Greens in Regulation percentage and 13th for Strokes gained from Tee to green. I also really like how he ranks 23rd in scrambling (and thats with some awful putting). If his flat stick is working this week he could provide us with a huge winner.
SUNG KANG 100/1 - He enters playing very well (Top 17 in 3 straight tournaments ) but his biggest question will come on the weekend. Kang will have to handle pressure in order win on the Tour and he will be going up against a very talented field. We can't however overlook his strengths and that is his short game and putting. He ranks 25th on Tour in Scrambling and 35th for putting between 10-15 feet. He is inexperienced on the PGA Tour but will be our flyer for the week.
LUKE DONALD 66/1 - Donald loves this course and I am shocked at these odds. He has played here seven times, while making the cut every single year. Luke has finished inside the Top 10 in four of his last five appearances, actually finishing inside the Top 6 in those four finishes. He played great against a stout field in his last Euro event (T13 finish) and just needs to avoid the one bad round of late on the PGA Tour. Donald ranks 37th on Tour in Strokes gained Tee to Green and 22nd in Scrambling. His wedge game is extraordinary and will be in the mix on Sunday because of it.
MATT KUCHAR 45/1 - Kuch is a Top 30 machine but we want him raising the trophy this week. He has finished inside the Top 30 in 6 of his last 7 events, and has the ‘steady eddy’ approach needed to win at Innisbrook (T10 here in 2012 with an awful opening round 75)( T33 last year with a closing round of 75). Obviously avoiding the one disaster round will be a key for Kuch but I like him to lean on his 12th ranked putting and 43rd ranked scrambling stats this week. He was born in Florida and will have plenty of support this week.
HARRIS ENGLISH 32/1 - Lets keep this one simple. He is coming off a 10th place finish at the Blue Monster. Shot a sizzling 65 last year here in his final round to finish T10. Ranks 47th in strokes gained tee to green and 27th in Putting. He also gets up and down at a nice clip as he ranks 47th for Scrambling. Take English with confidence.
Head To Head Picks
We lost our head to head on Sunday last week when DJ imploded. Lets get that back this week with a 3 Unit winner.
3 Units on Luke Donald (-115) over Kevin StreelmanComment
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Steve's Fantasy Recommendations
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DraftKings Picks
As I said we had a great week on the Draft Kings front. Lets keep that going this week!
* One note - Danny Willet is going to be incredibly highly owned this week. I feel he will probably play well again (because he is very talented), but it makes more sense for us to fade him and hope he doesn't play well. To win on draftkings as most of you know you can't have all of the top percentages owned. That being said here are the picks.
* (Spieth (12800) on one team is a smart idea (the course suits him perfectly but he is very expensive and isn't playing that well. )
1. Charl Schwartzel (10200) - T17 last week and should really enjoy his week at Copperhead.
2. Matt Kuchar (9800) - Kuch is a Top 30 machine. Good value.
3. Harris English (9600) - Thought he might be a bit cheaper but cannot overlook how all around solid he is.
4. Ryan Moore (9300) - Perfect fit for this course.
5. Webb Simpson (8900) - Great value for a guy who loves this course and is playing excellently.
6. KJ Choi (8800) - He has won here twice and is playing some of the best golf of his life. Just missed the six pack because I don't think he can close the deal on a Sunday anymore.
7. Luke Donald (8300) - Great value here. Donald dominates at Copperhead.
8. Sung Kang (7700) - Kang could be a little overpriced right now for this course but we can't ignore his current form.
9. Patton Kizzire (7600) - The big Auburn grad can go crazy low. Makes a ton of birdies and is 10th on Tour in Putting.
10. Blayne Barber (7100) - The Florida guy will enjoy playing in front of friends and family this week. T3 at the Honda shows he really does enjoy it.
11. Adam Hadwin (6900) - The Canuck has tons of game and is a steal at this price. Going to win soon on Tour.
12. Stewart Cink (6700) - Stewie Cink can only win at certain course now in his career. This is one of them.
13. Tyrone Van Aswegen (6500) - A steal for this making the cut machine.
14. Derek Fathauer (6300) - Another player who will love playing in Florida this week as its his home. T26 at the Honda.Comment
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Hockey Crusher
Nashville Predators -147 over Calgary Flames
(System Record: 55-4, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 55-67-20
Rest of the Plays
Chicago Blackhawks +104 over St. Louis Blues
Toronto Maple Leafs + New York Islanders UNDER 5.5
Anaheim Ducks -145 over Colorado AvsComment
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Basketball Crusher
Holy Cross +9.5 over Lehigh
(System Record: 60-3, lost last game)
Overall Record: 60-68-3
Rest of the Plays
Charlotte -6 over Rice
Air Force +11 over UNLV
North Texas +7.5 over Western KentuckyComment
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Soccer Crusher
Gremio + San Lorenzo OVER 2
This match is happening in Conmebol
(System Record: 915-28, won last game)
Overall Record: 915-717-146Comment
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Totals 4 You NCAA Selections for Wednesday, March 9th
2016 ACC Tournament Super Total of the Year!!!!!
NC State/Duke under 155
NCAA Best Bets
Syracuse/Pittsburgh under 133
Minnesota/Illinois over 137 1/2
Georgia Tech/Clemson over 134
St John's/Marquette over 143 1/2Comment
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Simon | CBB Sides - Wednesday, Mar 9 2016 9:30PM
538 Texas Tech -8.0(-110) Pinnacle vs 537 TCU double-dime betComment
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Marc Lawrence/Pref Picks
Oregon State
Ucla (comp/lighter play)Comment
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Larry Ness
GOM - PitComment
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Scott Spreitzer -
slam dunk - SyracuseComment
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Power play wins
POWER PLAY OF THE DAY FOR WEDNESDAY 3/9/16
NCAAB: MARQUETTE -6.5Comment
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