3-18-16

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Root Trust Basketball Service

Friday, March 18, 2016
Inner circle
Texas (-4½) over UNI
8:50 PM (EDT) -- Chesapeake Energy Arena
Inner Circle--Texas - This should be a fascinating matchup, as Texas will have to corral guard Wes Washpun and push the pace in order to win. Northern Iowa prefers a much slower pace, so it’ll be interesting to see which team can win that battle. Texas knows how to score and move the ball having played in the most difficult conference in the country. Texas has but one "bad loss" this entire season and that was against Kansas. Talent and athleticism should win out. Texas had a very nice regular season, but the reason they paid head coach Shaka Smart the big bucks in the off-season was to win in March. He''ll have them ready. They play defense, rank second in the Big 12 in blocked shots and fourth in scoring defense. Center Prince Ibeh leads the way for their interior defense. This is the type of team who could make the Final Four if they get on a roll. Today, they roll thru NIU.
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Millionaires
Michigan (+3½) over Notre Dame
9:40 PM (EDT) -- Barclays Center
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No Limit
Pittsburgh (+2) over Wisconsin
5:50 PM (EDT) -- Scottrade Center
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Perfect Play
Iowa (-7) over Temple
3:10 PM (EDT) -- Barclays Center
Perfect Play--Iowa -Somethings up in this game. Iowa has lost five of its last six games. That includes a loss to Penn State, which has traditionally been the death sentence for teams. But they are a smooth 7 point favorite by the Vegas Oddsmakers. Fishy we say. It doesn''''t make sense. Let''''s go backwards for this game. The Hawkeyes have played poorly of late, but they were being considered for a No. 1 seed just a few weeks ago and are being undervalued against a team that barely made the tournament. Bingo! This will be an interesting contrast of styles, as Iowa likes to push the ball up and down the floor, and Temple likes to grind it out with smart possessions and tough defense. It’s probably going to come down to how well the Hawkeyes shoot the ball, and we think a few days off from basketball and a fresh start with lowered expectations will help them regain their shooting form. It will be difficult for Temple to play catchup ball if they get behind.
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Pinnacle
Cincinnati (-2½) over Saint Joseph's
6:57 PM (EDT) -- Spokane Arena
Pinnacle--Cincinnati - Cincinnati has added motivation this year. They played well last year but came up short. But that experience should count for something. The Bearcats had to sweat it out this year, but they’re back in the NCAA Tournament field after knocking off Purdue and pushing top-seeded Kentucky in the second round last year. Many of the same cast of characters are back–including big man Octavius Ellis, who’s a defensive factor and is averaging 10 points and 7.7 boards this season. They are stellar on rebounding the ball. They are a top 10 defensive team and dish out 15 assist every game. This is the time of year for defense and great guard play. Their front court will be too much for St Joe''s and laying a small number here is almost as automatic as it gets for an 8 vs 9 seed.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

FERRINGO

8-Unit Play. Take #826 Oklahoma (-14) over Cal-Bakersfield (4 p.m., Friday, Feb. 18)
This play was released Thursday and will be graded at -14. I know this line is moving (which is why I posted it yesterday, BTW) but it doesn't faze me. I would play it at 8.0 Units until -16 then drop it to 7.0 Units until it got to 18. It won't move that high. But crazier things have happened. If it goes over that I'd play for 5.0 until it got to 20. Again, it won't happen, but I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't have instruction for all possibilities.
I think that Oklahoma can win this game by around 30. I really do. I think that this game has 83-56 or 78-51 written all over it and I just think the Sooners are due to thunderfuck someone.
Look, think about the last time we saw Oklahoma. West Virginia, one of the best defensive teams in the country, was forcing All-American Buddy Hield into one of the worst games of his career. And the Mountaineers, one of the worst 3-point and free throw shooting teams in the country, were burning up the nets with one of their best shooting efforts of the season. And despite all that, WVU beat Oklahoma by about one-tenth of a second because a half court buzzer beater by Hield was waved off. That is what it takes to beat this team.
Oklahoma has never met a big game that they couldn't come up small in, especially in March. They've been a big disappointment the last few years. But this is it for this core of players, many of whom are three-year starters. The Sooners were good enough to make it to No. 1 in the country this year and they don't have a loss outside of the Top 50. This is a team that blasted WVU and Baylor on the road, nearly beat Kansas in Phog Allen, and demolished Villanova by 23 on a neutral site. They also overwhelmed Wisconsin in the nonconference and won true road games against Memphis and Hawaii. Throw in blowout neutral site wins over Washington State and Harvard and the fact is that the Sooners have proven that they can beat anyone, anywhere, and they are absolutely a contender to go to the Final Four. (This is to say nothing about what this team - which is the exact same group, sans TaShawn Thomas - did last year in big games on road and neutral sites. They demolished very, very good teams both in league play and in the nonconference.) I think that Hield is going to bounce back from his worst game with a vengeance. We're talking about the Player of the Year and a dynamic scorer who is going to break out in a big way on a major stage. On top of that, Oklahoma is playing virtually a home game here in Oklahoma City. The home crowd will be very much behind them, rather than out there rooting for the underdog. And we've all see what the Sooners can do on their home court this year.
Then we have Cal State-Bakersfield. They won the WAC on a last-second buzzer beater against New Mexico State, a team that they lost to twice during the regular season. (The same NMSU team that got pounded by New Mexico, Baylor, Long Beach State and Wichita State, as well as the NMSU team that lost to Air Force, Wyoming and Grand Canyon; that's the team that Bakersfield could barely beat in three chances. I follow NMSU very closely and this was by far Marvin Menzies' worst team in 10 years.) The WAC used to be a real league. Not long ago they had teams like Utah State, Nevada, NMSU, Fresno State and Hawaii. It was a real, competitive, underrated mid-major league. But right now the WAC is a dumpster fire. It's teams like Chicago State and Rio Grande Valley. Hell, Bakersfield wasn't even a D-I team a decade ago. This league is rated No. 28, down by the Southland and SWAC.
Outside of league play, Bakersfield (who was 14-19 last year) played just four teams rated inside the Top 200. They played the No. 329 schedule in the country. (Oklahoma's was No. 3, by the way.) They lost at Wyoming by four, at St. Mary's by 35, at Fresno State by 8 and at Arizona State by 16. So the only two Top 100 teams they faced - St. Mary's and Arizona State - buried them. So you just have to ask: is playing Oklahoma in Oklahoma City tougher than playing St. Mary's or Arizona State on their home court? That's a resounding yes.
Bakersfield's calling card is its defense. You think they defend any better than the great teams that Oklahoma has played? Are they going to defend tougher than West Virginia? I say hell no. Bakersfield isn't set up to hit Oklahoma where it has a slight weakness: on the interior. Bakersfield's starting center and best player is 6-9. He's the only guy taller than 6-6 that plays and they only have three guys on the roster (two of whom get small minutes) that is taller than 6-4. So the game plan is that Bakersfield is going to beat Oklahoma in a guard-oriented game. I don't think so. The Sooners really only play seven guys. So it's not like they have a lot of moving parts and that they have a deep bench that can throw them off as it waits to get into rhythm. If you want to beat Oklahoma, you have to beat their best guys for 40 minutes. And I just don't see that happening.
Oklahoma is due. They are due to show up in a big spot. This is the last ride for this talented crop of seniors. These guys have played in and won big games for years, and they have blown the doors off teams a hell of a lot better than Cal State-Bakersfield. This line should've been closer to 20 and I will be surprised if Bakersfield can keep it within that much.

1-Unit Play. Take #820 Iowa (-7) over Temple (3 p.m., Friday, March 18)
This is a line that definitely jumped out at me and I don't know too many people that are running to the window to grab an Iowa ticket. But that makes me like this group even more. They have two outstanding wing players in Jared Uthoff and Peter Jok and this is a senior-laden group that is capable of mustering one final run. Remember: this is the same team that got off to a blistering start to Big Ten play this year and the same group that beat Michigan State twice (including a win in Lansing). I thought all season that Temple had overachieved. They have some nice veterans but they don't have any pure scorers. And I think their dud in the AAC tournament was a harbinger of a short stay in this tourney as well.

1-Unit Play. Take #823 Michigan (+3) over Notre Dame (9:40 p.m., Friday, March 18)
We saw it again yesterday with Wichita State: the team that wins the play-in game is really dangerous in the field of 64. This is a good matchup for Michigan because Notre Dame plays exactly like they do: soft and primarily from the perimeter. I have not been buying this Irish squad most of the season and outside of one inspired 10-minute stretch against Duke they played like garbage at the ACC Tournament and down the stretch of the regular season. John Beilein is a great coach in March and if the Wolverines are hitting their 3's early I think they will continue to gain confidence and will blow Notre Dame's doors off before the Irish know what hit them.

1-Unit Play. Take #830 Texas A&M (-13) over UW-Green Bay (7 p.m., Friday, March 18)
This is the same Green Bay team that lost by 30 points to Georgia Tech earlier in the season, as well as taking blowout losses against Oakland, Valpo and Youngstown State. They play fast and loose and they don't play much defense. That's a problem against a very aggressive Texas A&M team. The Aggies could have a small letdown after their loss in the SEC Championship Game (which is why this play is rated this low) but I also think that they will want to bounce back quickly. The Aggies have shown another gear and have rung up some impressive blowouts of their own. I think they will start slowly but then pick it up and should have little trouble dispatching the just-happy-to-be-here Phoenix.

1-Unit Play. Take #832 Texas (-4) over Northern Iowa (9:50 p.m., Friday, March 18)
The public loves Northern Iowa here and this is a trendy upset pick. But the trendy upset picks didn't fare too well on Thursday and I think it will be more of the same today. Shaka Smart is a very good coach. And if you were to track Texas' season they have been a slow and steady incline the entire year. I think they are playing their best ball at the right time and I think they can take down Northern Iowa. I know the Panthers have some big wins and they are on a roll right now. But this team is not better than last year's version and they were awful for all of December and January so I am not very high on them. The Longhorns are due for a breakthrough at some point. It could be this weekend if their freshmen guards can hold it together.

1-Unit Play. Take #836 Wisconsin (+1) over Pittsburgh (6:50 p.m., Friday, March 18)

1-Unit Play. Take #837 Middle Tennessee State (+17) over Michigan State (3 p.m., Friday, March 18)
Everyone and their sister is all over Michigan State to win this tournament. Hell, even I think they are going to win it. But the fact that they are not over a 20-point favorite jumped out at me. As did the fact that MTSU rates out incredibly high in my NCAA Tournament Systems, sporting a plus-five. Florida-Gulf Coast was a plus-five yesterday against UNC and I foolishly ignored it.

2-Unit Play. Take #847 Cincinnati (-2.5) over St. Joseph's (9:55 p.m., Friday, March 18)
The public is all over St. Joseph's here. And I think that the Hawks looked awesome in the A-10 Tournament last week. But this is Letdown City for Phil Martelli's boys. St. Joseph's looks a lot like Seton Hall to me right now, as the Pirates had a letdown after their big tournament run and were never in yesterday's game against Gonzaga. Cincinnati is a very underrated, dangerous team. They play excellent defense and have a great system in place. This is also a really experienced Bearcats crew and they will be able to match the athleticism of the Hawks man-for-man. Cincinnati is favored for a reason in this game and I think they will be able to grind out a six-point win in a game that should be a rock fight from start to finish.

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #820 Iowa (-2) over Temple (3 p.m., Friday, March 18) AND Take #842 Maryland (-4) over South Dakota State (4:30 p.m., Friday, March 18)
Carpe diem. Good luck.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Computer predictions

syracuse -1
iowa -7
oklahoma -14.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

8-Unit Play. Take #831 Northern Iowa +4.5 over Texas (Friday, March 18 at 9:50 PM ET)
Take Northern Iowa ATS as my 8-Unit CBB Game of the Year for Friday night. This pick falls into one of my elite CBB systems and I have the Panthers winning this game outright by 10+ points. The Longhorns are actually not a very good team and they are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against a Big 12 opponent and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games. The Panthers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing a team with a win rate above .600 and they have been a covering machine going 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. UNI is better offensively and defensively and the Longhorns will struggle to break 60 points against them tonight. There are also some huge match-up problems that the longhorns will have to face against a very talented UNI team. Play UNI ATS with extreme confidence.

4-Unit Play. Take #826 Oklahoma -14.5 over CS Bakersfield (Friday, March 18 at 4:00 PM ET)
Take Oklahoma ATS as my 4-Unit CBB Smash for Friday afternoon. This pick falls into one of my top CBB systems and I have the Sooners winning by 20+ points as they are the superior overall team.The strength of schedule is night and day between these two teams and the Sooners bring a well tested team to this tournament. Play Oklahoma ATS with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

2 Madness Picks today, to move to a perfect 8-0 on the 2016 Madness for +3900.

3-Unit Play. #820. Take Iowa -7 over Temple (Friday @ 3:10pm est)
We roll with Iowa here as our first selection here over Temple and though we are fans of the Temple Owls, this is a bad spot for them as Iowa will be furious from their opening round loss to Illinois in the Big 10 Tournament. Heck, this can even be a bigger step-out if you want but at this point this is fine. Note, this is very similar to Iona vs. Iowa State. Folks were high on Iona but you have a Iowa State that had lost back to back games to Kansas and Oklahoma (2 previous #1s no less) and were fired up to get a big win in the tournament. Such is the case here you have an angry Iowa team from the loss to a sub .500 Illinois team, a team that beat Michigan by 10 points on the road, a top 25 offensive and top 35 defensive team facing a Temple team which is a public fade today, a team outside the top 150 in offense, lost to East Carolina a team outside the top 200 and lost to Wisconsin by 16 points on the road - a foe that Iowa is familiar with. We will roll with Iowa being motivated to do well this this afternoon as we have them winning by double-digits similar to the Iowa State game.

7-Unit Play. #847. Take Cincinnati -2.5 over St. Josephs (Currently -2 at Sportsbook) (Friday @ 9:57pm)
We are looking forward to these 2 College Ball Selections and we are absolutely stolked about Baseball Season (7-Unit Future on the horizon this week, remember we took the Nationals Under 92.5 Wins last year for an easy win). We are excited about the Season as we had the #1 Baseball Season last year going 106-65 and posted +$16,266 and +$20,200 last 2 years from back to back winning years. Early Bird Package is up and we look forward to you jumping on board as we seek +$10,000 this year to post more than a 1200% ROI for clients. As per this selection, we roll with Cincinnati as the public is very high on St. Josephs. Sure, they did win their conference tournament to their credit and are rolling right now. But, they run into a very good Cincinnati team who will be very irritated from their opening round loss to Connecticut who they took to multiple overtimes before falling short. Note, Connecticut is a monster in the post-season as Kevin Ollie gets his guys to play and the fact they have won the first 2 rounds (the play in and the round 64 speaks volumes) as they are now in the top 32. Cincinnati is a top 10 team defensively, top 100 team offensively and top 65 in turnover margin who has beat SMU and even VCU on the road by 6 points. St. Josephs is a good team. But, note they are outside the top 250 in 3 point shooting, And, this is very similar to the Florida game which St. Josephs lost by 11 points earlier this year who is a top 40 team and Cincinnati is a top 35 team. And, note they beat Dayton and VCU to reach the Tournament in part because they had plenty of revenge against them from recent previous games. This is different. An angry Cincinnati team, who is solid on the defensive end who will make this team beat them on the perimeter and since they are in the bottom third in the country in 3 point shooting, that makes the difference here. Cincinnaty by 8 this evening.


4 NBA Plays:
3-Unit Play. #813. Take Under 226 Golden State vs. Dallas (Friday @ 8:35pm est)
4-Unit Play. #816. Take Over 214 Phoenix vs. LA Lakers (Friday @ 10:35pm est)
3-Unit Play. #809. Take Portland -1.5 over New Orleans (Friday @ 8:05pm est)
3-Unit Play. #802. Take Over 219.5 Oklahoma City vs. Philadelhpia (Friday @ 7:05pm est)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports:

6 Unit Play. #826 Take Oklahoma -15 over Cal State Bakersfield (4 pm TNT) The Sooners are one of the most disappointing teams in the entire country this season. That being said they still have a ton of talent and with their guards they have the ability to go deep into this tournament. Throw in the fact they are playing this game in Oklahoma City and expect a 20-point plus victory for OU. Bakersfield plays in the worst conference in the country and they have a retread as a coach in Rod Barnes. His teams seem to get better once he leaves and I have no confidence that he can keep this game close.

3 Unit Play. #836 Take Wisconsin +1 over Pittsburgh (Friday 6:50 pm TNT) The Panthers are always known for tough noise defense and rebounding but that is not the case with this team. The Panthers are shaky on defense and they have never had great offensive teams. Pittsburgh have lost three of their last four games and two of those games came against teams that did not make the NCAA Tournament (Georgia Tech & Virginia Tech). I believe the rest did Wisconsin good and they will be refreshed and ready to play on Friday in St Louis. Wisconsin has the higher upside if they play well and that will be good enough to win this pick'em game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ken Thomson | CBB Sides - Friday, Mar 18 2016 3:10PM
819 Temple 7.5(-110) Southpoint vs 820 Iowa single-dime bet

Analysis: I'll take a shot at Temple and the old professor Fran Dunphy to keep it close. Coach Mac and Iowa have played pathetic basketball down the stretch and finished the season on a dismal 5-7 run in the Big Ten including a first game exit vs. Illino “is. Uthoff & Jok can win the game for Iowa but if DeDosey (16 pg ) can hit some shots early and the big fella, Obi Enechionyia is focused out of the gate, the Owls are capable of winning the game. Half of Philly may be in Brooklyn for this one as Villanova has the early game and if the two win they'll meet on Sunday!

Pick Made: Mar 18 2016 3:38AM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ken Thomson | CBB Total - Friday, Mar 18 2016 2:00PM
843 Hawaii / 844 California OVER 140.5 Westgate single-dime bet

Analysis: Hawaii needs to push pace to have a chance to stay in flow offensively. The Bears have played several games without Wallace their leading scorer. PG Sam Singer will be geared to ke “ep offense rolling. Hawaii has a well rounded offense led by PG Bobbitt and scoring leaders Jancovic & Valdes. The trio averages 44 points per game and need to be dialed in for the Rainbow Warriors. I see this game hitting 150

Pick Made: Mar 18 2016 3:31AM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ken Thomson | CBB Sides - Friday, Mar 18 2016 4:00PM
826 Oklahoma -14.0(-117) Pinnacle vs 825 CS Bakersfield triple-dime bet

Analysis: Buddy Hield and the Sooners should be focused to take the wind out of Cal State Bakersfield's sails. The Roadrunners got the game winning buzzer beater in the WAC Tournament here in Vegas to dethrone New Mexico State who has owned the WAC Title for several seasons.
The Sooners need to pound the ball inside to Spangler and Lattin and then use the perimeter shooting of Hield and Woodard to open things up. Rod Barnes has done a masterful job coaching Bakersfield this season but it's veteran Lon Kruger that gets the win here. I like the Sooners by “ 20 plus


Pick Made: Mar 18 2016 3:57AM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ken Thomson | CBB Total - Friday, Mar 18 2016 2:45PM
837 Mid. Tenn / 838 Michigan St. OVER 143.0 Southpoint single-dime bet

Analysis: Thinking Sparty o “pens it up to double digits and the Blue Raiders push the tempo to get back in it. See the game hitting 150.....Kermit Davis has scorers for Middle Tennessee Statein Giddy Potts ( 51 % ) three point shooter....Reggie Upshaw ( 14 ppg ) and Perrin Buford as well as several key players off the bench....Valentine and Forbes are as dynamic a backcourt there is in the country.

Pick Made: Mar 18 2016 3:44AM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ken Thomson | CBB Sides - Friday, Mar 18 2016 9:40PM
824 NotreDame -3.0(-105) Greek vs 823 Michigan single-dime bet

Analysis: You can lay 2 1/2 several shops here in Vegas curre “ntly at 4:00 AM PST......Brey won't be outcoached by Beilein --Wolverines will look to get second win in three days while Notre Dame has been waiting to get back on the court after getting blown off the court by North Carolina by 30 plus in the ACC Tourney.
Zach Auguste should be ready to play and Demetrius Jackson and Steve Vasturia should shoot it well against a Wolverine defense that is vulnerable to solid inside out play. The Irish need to stay in the face of sharp shooter Duncan Robinson and force the others to try and beat them.
You'll know early if the Irish are able to discard that horrendous performance against Carolina as I look for Brey's Boys to get out of the gate somewhat quickly!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ken Thomson | CBB Sides - Friday, Mar 18 2016 9:50PM
831 Northern Iowa -4.5(-110) William Hill vs 832 Texas double-dime bet

Analysis: “It's a trendy play...Northern Iowa out of the Missouri Valley.....I've been following Jacobson's team for several years.....with Wes Washpun leading the way this team is composed to win close games. The Panthers need to keep PG Isaiah Taylor from penetrating down the lane and kicking out to Felix or Lammert for open three's. Northern Iowa needs to give Taylor open looks from the outside and force him to either shoot from the outside where he is 27% from trifecta range or give up the ball. Cameron Ridley will be back for his second game for Shaka Smart but he wasn't much of a factor in the Big12 Conference Tourney loss to Baylor. Jesperson and Bohannon need to shoot it well for UNI and look for Wyatt Lohaus to provide spark off the Panthers bench. I think UNI wins a close game in the 120's

Pick Made: Mar 18 2016 4:22AM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ken Thomson | CBB Sides - Friday, Mar 18 2016 9:55PM
848 St. Joseph's 3.0(-116) Pinnacle vs 847 Cincinnati single-dime bet

Analysis: I bought this play up to plus 3 points here...cost 10 cents in most shops....if you are in Vegas...Coast properties and MGM properties are currently sitting at plus 3 points. Isaiah Miles and DeAndre Bembry are as savy a combo as Phil Martelli has had in all his years at St. Joseph's. I look for the Hawks to continue playing solid ba “ll and if they stay out of foul trouble they should outscore the Bearcats. Cincy is a solid defensive team and Troy Caupain is a streak shooter as he showed us all in the 4-OT loss to UConn in the AAC Conference Tourney. Look for Aaron Brown to have a big game for the Hawks as St. Joseph's grinds out a tough one outright!

Pick Made: Mar 18 2016 4:31AM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ken Thomson | CBB Sides - Friday, Mar 18 2016 9:30PM
850 Brigham Young -6.5(-106) Pinnacle vs 849 Va. Tech double-dime bet

Analysis: While everyone is watching the Big Dance the Marriott Center is Provo should be rocking. Not an easy venue for Buzz Williams and Va. Tech and if the Hokies are not focused they could get blown out in this NIT 2nd round game.
Kyle Collinsworth is as solid an all-around playe “r as the Cougs have had in quite some time. Meanwhile guards Chase Fischer and freshman Nick Emery can shoot the rock from deep. Emery has the solid inside outside game and is a young star in the making. If Virginia Tech slows it down and plays solid defense that could derail the Cougars but I'm thinking Buzz will let the Hokies run and we could hit the high 160's. If that's the case I'll go with 88-79 BYU


Pick Made: Mar 18 2016 4:39AM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris James

Michigan St
Hawaii