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Utah slogged thru a month of terrible basketball from February 10th thru March 9th. The Jazz went 3-10 SU and just 2-11 ATS during that stretch of games. But things have turned for the better for Utah as the Jazz have gone 6-2 SU and ATS over their last six games. Utah’s last game was a 113-91 blowout loss at Oklahoma City, but that result can be easily dismissed as the Jazz were on a back-to-back set after winning in a comeback the night before in Houston. Utah’s defense has been phenomenal recently; the Jazz have allowed just 90.4 points per game over their last eight games. Going back a bit further, the Jazz have held ten of their last twelve opponents to 99 points or less. Overall, Utah’s defense is allowing just 96.6 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land this season. Utah’s stout defensive play will continue tonight in Minnesota, and their ability to slow the tempo will be a major factor in this game against the Timberwolves.
Minnesota played an energy-draining game last night in Washington. The Timberwolves won 132-129 in double overtime. Minnesota had four starters play 43 minutes or more, and all five starters played 39 minutes or more overall. Minnesota’s entire second unit played 13 minutes or more as well. The game was played at an extremely fast pace as the teams combined to take 196 shots, including 54 three-point attempts. Minnesota also shot 53.1% (51-96) from the field with six players scoring in double digits. The Timberwolves will now play on a back-to-back set, and this will also be their fourth game in six nights. Minnesota is a team that needs to play ultra-fast to be at their best, but when unable to play up tempo basketball, the Timberwolves struggle mightily. The Timberwolves are just 5-24 SU when held to less than 100 points this season; their average loss has come by 12 points per game. We’ll lay the points with the Jazz in this game on Saturday night.
Villanova comes into this game with a 32-5 SU record after steamrolling their three opponents in the NCAA tournament. Villanova’s three wins have come by 30, 19, and 23 point margins. The Wildcats have scored 265 points on 59.9% (97-162) shooting from the field and 53.2% (33-62) shooting from three-point land. That hot shooting is next to impossible to maintain, especially against Kansas who allows just 0.92 points per possession. Overall, the Jayhawks give up just 67.6 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land. Villanova is heavily reliant on making three’s (33.7% of their points scored), but only 27.2% of the points scored on Kansas’ defense come from beyond the arc. That’s significant considering Villanova only scores 47.1% of their points from 2-point range while just 49.9% of the points scored on Kansas come from inside the arc.
Kansas' path to the Elite 8 has also been easy as the Jayhawks have won all three games by 12 points or more. The Jayhawks have yet to play their best game, but there are reasons to expect it tonight, especially since Villanova is highly likely to regress in this game. The Jayhawks own significant edges on both ends of the court based on efficiency metrics. Kansas’ offense averages 1.19 points per possession compared to Villanova’s average of 1.17 points per possession. Kansas scores 50.8% of their points from 2-point range, so they are not reliant on making three’s like Villanova. The Jayhawks also own the better defense as Villanova is allowing 0.93 points per possession. Kansas is the better team, and since Villanova is set to regress sharply, we’ll back the Jayhawks in this game on Saturday night.
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