4-4-16

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Soccer Crusher
Red Star + FC Paris UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in France
(System Record: 930-28, lost last game and a push)
Overall Record: 930-724-150

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oskeim sports

4* Nova

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baseball33 - 4.04.2016
USA: MLB
Cleveland Indians - Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Odd: 1,83

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Dave Essler:

*2 Tex ml
*2 mil +1.5
*1 tampa
*1 Tampa / Toronto over 7.5

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Dr. Bob Analysis

North Carolina (-2 ½) vs Villanova (149 ½ OU)

06:20 PM Pacific, Rotation: 601
I wish I had a pick on this game but I have reason to take both sides. From a value perspective I like Villanova, as my ratings favor North Carolina by just ½ a point and the Wildcats have been the better team in this tournament. My variance adjusted game ratings rate Villanova 3.3 points higher using only NCAA tournament games and even using the median 3 games (throwing out the highest and lowest ratings for each team) still rates Villanova 2.8 points better. If I throw out the round 1 games against bad teams then things even up a bit, as those 4 games would rate Villanova only 0.6 points better after adjusting for variance. If you don’t adjust for variance then there is no doubt that the Wildcats have been much better but Villanova’s variance adjusted rating is 13.8 points lower than their average rating without an adjustment while North Carolina’s variance adjusted rating is only 2.9 points higher than their non-adjusted rating. Regardless of how I look at it I don’t have any ratings that would favor North Carolina by more than ½ a point in this game. The reason I’m not jumping on Villanova based on line value is because the Wildcats apply to a 1-19 ATS Final Four situation that’s 0-6 ATS in the championship game.

From a match up perspective this game will likely come down to whether Villanova can continue to knock down their 3-point shots at a pretty good rate. North Carolina does not defend the 3-point arc well (35.9% allowed this season) and Villanova has made an incredible 48.4% of their 3-point shots in this tournament after being a mediocre 3-point shooting team prior to the tournament. The Wildcats don’t need to continue to make that high a percentage, as I think they’re likely to win if they make 37% or more (they’re 35.9% for the season) as long as they don’t get dominated in the rebounding department, which is really North Carolina’s only advantage in this game. Villanova is not only knocking down their 3-point shots recently, and are expected to make a higher percentage than UNC in this game, but Nova is #2 in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage and #2 in free throw percentage and my model projects better shooting stats for the Wildcats in every category. Rebounding is where the Tarheels have an advantage and they need to create more shooting opportunities for themselves since they’re not expected to shoot a higher percentage than Villanova. North Carolina will almost surely have more rebounds in this game but they’ve got to be better than the +6 they’re projected to be to balance out Villanova’s shooting advantage. Of course, if Nova’s outside shots aren’t falling then that won’t matter, as North Carolina is likely to win if the Wildcats are 33% or lower in 3-point shooting. The NRG stadium affect (historically lower 3-point shooting percentages than expected) didn’t affect Villanova at all in their semifinal win over Oklahoma, as the Cats poured in 11 of 18 3-point shots. However, Villanova was the only one of the four teams to shoot a higher percentage from 3-point range than expected on Saturday so there is still reason to believe that the dome might have some negative affect on 3-point shooting (32.4% in 18 previous college games played here), which would help UNC a bit since the Tarheels don’t take as many 3-point shots. There were a lot of people that took the under in both games on Saturday because of the previous under trend at NRG but the line was adjusted for that and both games went over the total. My match up model projects 150 ½ total points and I still think there should be a slight adjustment lower for playing in a dome so the posted total of 149 ½ points is about right and I don’t see enough value to play the total either way. I wish I had something for you on this final game but I’ve had a solid NCAA Tournament (8-5-1 on Best Bets, despite starting 1-4, and 19-12 on the opinions) and I see no reason to force a bet that’s not there. I’ll pass on both the side and the total.

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John Ryan - Premium Picks





Play on: Villanova +3 -105

Top Play



50* graded play on Villanova as they take on UNC in the NCAA Championship game set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game and are currently installed as a 2 ½ point dogs. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 41* play using the line and a 9* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-25 ATS mark good for 71.3% winners since 1997. Play on an underdog (VILLANOVA) after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. These are Money Line situations as well reflecting the upset. Villanova is a near-perfect 12-1 against the money line (+11.0 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 14-2 against the money line (+11.8 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons; 10-1 against the money line (+8.9 Units) when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game this season; 18-1 against the money line (+15.5 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 19-3 against the money line (+14.3 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points UNC has had an easy route to this Championship game while Villanova has played the most difficult schedule any No. 2 seed as had to faced in at least the past 10 Tournaments. UNC wins against Florida Gulf Coast, Providence, Indiana, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. Only Indiana was a test since they are the second best shooting team in the nation. Villanova has had to defeat UNC-Ashville, IOWA, Miami (Fla), KANSAS, OKLAHOMA – and I certainly meant the BOLD type. This ‘seasoning’ will more than make Villanova fully prepared for the size and length of UNC. Plus, they already defeated Kansas, the no.1 overall seed in the Tournament. Enough already. Take Villanova.

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Brandon Lang
My 30 Dime selection is on Villanova over N.Carolina.
The current line on this game is +2 1/2 in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best line available

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ASI


Mlb
patrick (0-0 0.00) cleveland +100 boston (4pm)
david (0-0 0.00)
baltimore -120 minnesota (3pm)
seattle +110 texas (4pm)
atlanta/washington over 6.5 +105 (4pm)
jeff (1-0 +1.00) chicago whitesox +110 oakland (10pm)




COLLEGE HOOPS
PATRICK (1-0 +1.00) No Selection Today
DAVID (0-1 -1.10) No Selection Today
JEFF (0-2 -2.20) VILLANOVA +2.5 N CAROLINA (915PM)


Tennis pj (1-0 +1.00)
wta katowice open
kr pliskova +145 h watson (1230pm)
k flipkens -190 d vekic (2pm)




Soccer simon (1-4 -3.77)
italy serie b (under 2.5 -130) ac cesena @ fc bari 1908 (230pm)
spain la liga (under 2.5 -136) sporting gijon @ ud levante (230pm)

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SMART SPORTS INVESTMENTS

Risked 5 units to win 4.2
Houston Astros -119 vs New York Yankees

Risked 5 units to win 4.72
Texas Rangers -106 vs Seattle Mariners

Risked 3 units to win 2.8
Boston Red Sox -107 vs Cleveland Indians

Risked 3 units to win 2.73
Chicago White Sox -110 vs Oakland Athletics

Risked 5 units to win 3.68
Chicago Cubs -136 vs Los Angeles Angels

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Wise Guy Insider

Wise Guy Play Of The Day

MLB: Cincinnati Reds -160

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power play wins

POWER PLAY OF THE DAY FOR MONDAY 4/4/16

NCAAB: NORTH CAROLINA -2.5

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PAUL LEINER

100* Orioles -120
100* Rays -110
100* Over 7.5 – Phillies / Reds

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DOC SPORTS

6-units Chicago White Sox – UNDER 81 wins
On paper, the Chicago White Sox appear to have a roster that should compete for a postseason berth in 2016. But unfortunately for them, games don’t get played on paper and there are a lot of reasons why this club is going to fall short this season. First off, the chemistry on this ballclub hasn’t been good the last couple of seasons and doesn’t appear to be getting any better after the latest incident which resulted in the retirement of Adam LaRoche. The White Sox have made a ton of moves the last few years in an effort to improve the team, but they haven’t been very good fits for the team. One of the biggest problems is the depth of the roster. There isn’t much behind the regulars, so any injury involving a pitcher or hitter is going to be a huge issue. They also have a glaring hole at shortstop and a very weak back end of the rotation. When John Danks is your #4 starter, you shudder to think who they will choose for the fifth spot. The AL Central is also much improved from last season, so somebody is going to have to finish below .500 when it’s all said and done. That team should be the White Sox, so we’ll go UNDER their season win total.

5-units Miami Marlins – UNDER 80.5 wins
The Miami Marlins have two of the best young players in the game in Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez. Stanton might be the best slugger in the game and Fernandez is certainly amongst the best hurlers in the league. They’re certainly not the problem, but the supporting cast is. A1serviceplays.com It’s hard to project where the production will come from outside of the big two. There’s not much protection for Stanton in the lineup and the rotation is very thin once you get past Fernandez and the newly-signed Wei-Yin Chen. The names being thrown around for the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation are downright awful. Depth is also a problem for this squad as they can’t afford for anyone to go down with an injury for an extended period of time. Top set up man Carter Capps is already lost for the season, which is a huge hit to the bullpen. They’ll be able to accumulate some wins against the bottom-feeder Phillies and Braves, but I just don’t see the Marlins being a team that finishes above the .500 mark. Play the Marlins UNDER their season win total.

4-units Chicago Cubs – OVER 93.5 wins
The Chicago Cubs are the new darlings of the league and it’s for good reason. Nobody improved their team more than the Cubs did in the offseason when they added Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and John Lackey. Don’t forget that the Cubs already had a great young core in place led by Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber. And this team won a whopping 97 regular season games in one of the toughest divisions in baseball last year. There’s no question that this year’s roster is more complete and better overall. The depth is what is most impressive, as they have guys like Jorge Soler and Javier Baez on the bench. They also have eight or nine guys that could start games for them and one of the deeper bullpens in the sport. Joe Maddon is one of the best managers around and always seems to get the best of his players. Add it all up and it’s hard not to see this team exceeding their win total. Go OVER with the Cubs.

3-units Boston Red Sox – UNDER 87.5 wins
The Boston Red Sox made a big splash in the offseason when they signed ace David Price to lead their rotation and traded for Craig Kimbrel to close out games in the ninth. Those two alone will make this a much improved baseball team, but don’t forget that the Red Sox only won 78 games last season. They’ll have to improve by 10 games to exceed that win total, and I don’t think they’ve done enough to do that. Their rotation still has some question marks – especially with Eduardo Rodriguez now on the disabled list to start the season. The offense looks good on paper, but there are a lot of guys on the wrong side of their prime. Guys like David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Pablo Sandoval and even Hanley Ramirez just aren’t the same players they were in the past. I like a lot of the young talent coming up and who doesn’t like Mookie Betts. But the AL East is an extremely tough division and I wouldn’t be surprised if no one gets to 90 wins because of it. The Yankees got better in the offseason, the Blue Jays still have the best lineup in baseball, and the Rays are probably one of the most underrated teams in the league. Take the Red Sox to go UNDER their season win total.

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Mike Lee

3* Oakland A's +108

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Merill: 2* Play VILLANOVA