12-4-16

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Mark Lawrence turd perfect system club
NFL - 12/4/16

SUPER ANTICLIMAX
PLAY AGAINST any NFL away team that is not favored by 6 or more points if
they upset the defending Super Bowl champion in their previous game if
they are facing a foe of a win.

ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 16-0

Play Against: Kansas City Chiefs

Rationale: Letdowns occur for teams that upset defending champions, especially when they are on the road and facing an energized foe off a win.

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Paul Leiner:

2000* NFL Over 48 Chargers/Bucs
500* NFL Giants +6
100* NFL Over 52.5 Saints/Lions
100* CBB Georgetown -8.5

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Nemo Ship It: Chargers -3

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Lee Sterling

(12/4/16)
20* JAX Jags +3.5
25* ATL Falcons -5.5
25* U41.5 PHI/CIN
35* ARI Cardinals -2.5
45* BAL Ravens -3.5. NFL GOY

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Stephen Nover
Seattle -7 triple dime

[golden contender]

GC: NFL Play

Sunday headliner includes a 100% NFL Totals system + 2 big power system pays and undefeated Sunday night football system +100% NBA Power system. NFL comp play below.

The NFL comp play is on Denver at 1:00 eastern. Denver will have Paxton Lynch playing today and will respond big off the home loss to KC. The Broncos have covered 9 straight as a road favorite after a game where they controlled the ball for 34 or more minutes. Defending champs that are not laying more than have cashed 22 of 25 times off a favored loss vs a team off a spread win like the Jags. Denver has covered 3 of 4 as a road favorite in this range and Jacksonville has failed to cover 5 of 7 as a home dog in this range. Look for Denver to bounce back particularly on defense off the tough OT Division loss to KC. Play on Denver. The Big Sunday card has a perfect system total and a pair of Undefeated system sides along with a Big Sunday night winner on NBC. Never lost 100% NBA Totals system up too. We continue to rank #1 on several top leader boards. Jump on now and end the week big. For the NFL Free pick. Take Denver. GC

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Goldsheet
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4

NFL

TOP CHOICE 1 1/2 units "OVER" 48 1/2 points BUFFALO at OAKLAND 1:05 PM PST (Game #367-68)

GREEN BAY -6 1/2 -home over Houston 10:00 AM PST (Game #356)

MIAMI +3 1/2 over Baltimore -home 10:00 AM PST (Game #365)

TAMPA BAY +4 over San Diego -home 1:25 PM PST (Game #369)

CAROLINA +7 over Seattle -home 5:30 PM PST (Game #375)

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balfe
49ers -2//bears
balt -3.5//miami
sea -7.5//car

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10 Top Side Play · [363] LA Rams
Scoop Davis' Sports Scoop Sun Dec 4th, 2016 1:00pm EST

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TheBigMove

Steam move : 520) georgetown

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Kelso

100 GREEN BAY

Washington
Carolina

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Scott Rickenbach

Sunday NFL (4 picks):


Early System Smash - NFL Game #351 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Denver Broncos (-) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Broncos are fired up after losing in overtime to the Chiefs last week despite having a yardage edge of 464-273 in that game. Even though QB Trevor Siemian is likely to miss this game, Paxton Lynch has already logged some NFL time and he'll do just fine here. The Jaguars have lost 6 straight games and 5 of the 6 defeats have come by at least 5 points. 5 of Denver's 7 wins have come by at least 8 points so if you're expecting the Broncos to win this you should also be expecting them to cover the short number. That said, I definitely like Denver off of a loss and facing a Jacksonville team that is only 2-9 on the season plus has suffered 6 straight losses. The Broncos have won all 3 of their non-divisional road games this season and have gone 3-0 ATS in those games. Denver is also on an 11-5 ATS run when off of a SU loss. The Jaguars are on a long-term ugly 10-24 ATS run as a home dog. Jacksonville is 0-4 SU and ATS in their home games this season. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning percentage under the .250 mark. Combining the above perfect marks in favor of Denver and those against the Jags and you have a 13-0 ATS mark in favor of the Broncos. I'll take it! 8* DENVER


Total of the Week - NFL Game #359/360 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET - This total has dropped from as high as a 54 down to as low as a 52 and this is offering exceptional line value with the over. I completely understand the line move because the Lions have actually stayed under the total in 5 straight games. However, Detroit's last 4 games have been against Houston, Jacksonville, and Minnesota (twice). That means they have faced a top 5 defense (based on yards allowed) in 4 straight games! Now the Lions get to take advantage of facing one of the worst defenses in the league as they take on the Saints. Of course the problem for Detroit is they are unlikely to stop the high-powered attack of New Orleans in the Superdome. At home this season the Saints are averaging 34 points and 468 yards per game! With this line at 7, my expectation is a 35-28 (or 34-27) type game here and that's why the over is my play here. Note that the over is 4-1 this season (and 17-9 the last 3 seasons) when New Orleans is a favorite. Also, in Saints home games with a posted total of 49.5 or more, the over is a long-term 34-19. In their Thanksgiving Day win over the Vikings, the Lions allowed only 13 points which is the lowest point total they've allowed all season. Of course the Vikes offense is putrid and this opens up another key stat too. The Lions are 12-1 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 13 points or less. This is the 1st time it's happened this season and I'll take advantage as Detroit goes from facing one of the league's best defenses to facing one of its worst. 10* Top Play OVER in New Orleans


Non-Conf Game of the Month - NFL Game #370 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play San Diego Chargers (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - Make no mistake about it, that was a huge win for the Bucs last week as they beat Seattle. However, it's important to consider that the Seahawks were clearly flat for that game. Not only were the Hawks off of a big win over the Eagles (and upset of the Patriots the prior week), they also had a huge game on deck. Seattle was clearly looking ahead to their game this week (an opportunity for playoff revenge) against Carolina. With that said, one can't totally take everything away from the Buccaneers win over the Seahawks last week but, the point is, one should definitely keep it in perspective. Now Tampa Bay is clearly the one that is in a flat spot here as they are off of a huge upset win at home and now had to travel coast to coast to take on a tough Chargers team that is clearly better than their 5-6 record on the season. San Diego has had some tough, tight losses so many are reluctant to back them and that is helping to give late season line value to the Bolts in a spot like this as the line has held at 3.5 in most spots. While both teams have been "up and down" on defense this season, the offensive edge in this match-up clearly belongs to Philip Rivers and company and the Chargers have averaged 32 points per game at home this season while the Bucs are averaging only 21.6 points per game on the road this year. San Diego is 4-1 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season and Tampa Bay's recent "surge" on defense has been helped by catching Seattle in a flat spot (and Seahawks offense has struggled at times this season) and facing the the Chiefs and Bears (both have struggled on offense this season). Prior to that, the Bucs allowed 73 points in their two prior games (against Oakland and Atlanta) and those games were in Tampa Bay. In other words, don't be surprised if the Chargers put up a bunch of points on the over-rated Bucs Sunday! 10* Top Play SAN DIEGO CHARGERS


Primetime Punisher - NFL Game #375 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - This is a revenge spot for Seattle since the Seahawks didn't get a shot at the Super Bowl last season because they lost to the Panthers at Carolina in January. However, revenge can be over-valued and I feel strongly that is precisely the case here. The Seahawks schedule has been brutal over the past 5 weeks. They were home against Buffalo to start November but then went all the way to the east coast to face New England, then flew across the country to host the Eagles, then flew back to the east coast again to face Tampa Bay and then came back across the country again to host Carolina this week. This is catching up with the Seahawks and I know that last week's loss to the Buccaneers certainly had a lot to with this being a lookahead spot. But it also had to do with all the travel and big games likely catching up with Seattle and it was the 3rd time in the last 6 games that their total offense has been held to 278 yards or less! Now Seattle has to deal with a Carolina defense that, prior to last week's poor effort at Oakland, had allowed 20 points or less in 4 straight games! The Panthers are fired up after rallying back to take the lead on the Raiders only to lose late and though it is the Seahawks with revenge in this match-up, keep in mind it is Carolina who is fighting hard right now to stay alive in the playoff race in the NFC. The Panthers are on a 17-8 ATS run as a road dog and I love having them at more than 7 in this match-up. In games 9 through 12 of a season, the Panthers have gone 8-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 35 points or more. The Seahawks may get their revenge but I expect this game to be decided by a single possession as it should be an absolutely dogfight given the situation for both clubs. 8* CAROLINA

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Betting Resource
Dec 4: NHL: Los Angeles - Montreal
Pick: Reg Time Only: Los Angeles -0.5 Odds: 2.40
Risked: 8 Units Return:


Dec 4: NFL: Carolina - Seattle
Pick: Carolina +8 Odds: 1.91
Risked: 8 Units Return:


Dec 4: NFL: Houston - Green Bay
Pick: Houston +6.5 Odds: 1.91
Risked: 8 Units Return:

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ASA NFL - 5 NFL picks on Sunday

#354 – ASA PLAY ON 7* Atlanta -4.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET – KC has to be one of the worst 8-3 in the NFL in recent memory. This team has played 11 games this year and been outgained in 8 of them. They are averaging just 328 YPG (27th in the NFL) and allowing 382 YPG (-54 YPG differential). They are coming off a HUGE come from behind win @ AFC West rival Denver and have another game next Thursday against Oakland who leads the division. In their 30-27 OT win vs Denver the Chiefs were outgained by almost 200 yards! The bubble has to burst for this team at some point as they can’t continue to be outplayed yet still win games. We think that happens this week. They face the best offense in the NFL on a YPP basis (6.6 YPP) and a team that has scored 30+ points already six times this year. Atlanta, unlike KC, has outgained their opponents by more than a full yard per play this season! The Birds are at home for the second straight weekend and they are holding onto the division lead of just one game and cannot afford a home loss. With the Chiefs in a bad spot here with a division sandwich and 2nd straight on the road game, we like Atlanta here. Chiefs offense won’t be able to keep up in this one. Lay it.


#365 - ASA PLAY ON 3* Miami +3.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - No written analysis on this game today...


#367 - ASA PLAY ON 4* Buffalo +3 over Oakland, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - We went against the Raiders last week and picked up a half point ATS with with Carolina. That ATS loss dropped Oakland to 1-4 ATS at home this season. They are 3-2 SU at home and their point differential at home is -7 on the season. For the season they have just the 10th best point differential in the NFL. We continue to feel the Raiders are overrated. They are 9-2 but they have gained the same number of yards they’ve given up this year (390 YPG on offense & 390 YPG allowed defensively). Those are the stats of a .500 type team and not one that sits at 9-2. Oakland is the worst defense in the NFL on a YPP basis allowing 6.2. They are also near the bottom of the NFL in rush defense which is a problem here facing a Buffalo team that leads the NFL in rushing at 157 YPG. The Bills should be back to full strength offensively with both RB LeSean McCoy and WR Sammy Watkins expected to play after missing last week’s win over Jacksonville. Buffalo has been solid on the road with a 3-3 mark. Their 3 losses have all been by 6 or less against solid teams (Seattle, Baltimore, & Miami). Raider QB Carr injured a finger last week vs Carolina and it could affect him this week and he’ll most likely be on the run as Buffalo is 2nd in the NFL with 33 sacks this season. Oakland obviously isn’t used to this success (6-23 ATS as home favorites since 2005) and they have a huge look ahead spot @ KC on Thursday. We like Buffalo to win this one outright.


#374 - ASA PLAY ON 3* Pittsburgh -6.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET – The Giants are a “smoke & mirrors” team in our opinion. They come into this game with an 8-3 record despite getting outgained by 18 YPG on the season. They have just a +18 point differential with is 14th in the league. Pittsburgh, despite their 6-5 record, has outgained their opponents on the season and they are +44 in point differential. Of New York’s last 8 opponents, 7 of them currently have a losing record. Their last two games were unimpressive wins over 2 of the worst teams in the NFL, Chicago & Cleveland. Two weeks ago vs Chicago came from down a TD at half to win a tight one 22-16. Last week New York was outgained by a terrible Cleveland team in their win. Pittsburgh looks like they are hitting their stride. They are just 2-2 since Roethlisberger returned but have outgained all 4 opponents. His first game back @ Baltimore you could tell he was out of sorts. They Pitt had Dallas beat here until the Cowboys scored a TD with 9 seconds left to win 35-30. The Steeler have now won 2 straight and this is a huge home game for them as they are tied a top the AFC North with Baltimore. The Giant defense has looked solid but let’s not forget they have faced terrible offenses for the most part. Six of their last eight games have come against scoring offenses ranked 32nd, 31st, 30th, 27th, 25th, and 24th. Now they face a dangerous Pitt offense that is back at full strength. We’ll lay the points in this one as we expect Pitt to roll.


#375/376 – ASA PLAY ON 3* Under 44 – Carolina @ Seattle, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET – Seattle’s offensive performance last week was an epic fail to say the least. They scored just 5 points against a middle of the pack Tampa defense. They were held to under 250 total yards as their offensive line continues its poor showing. We have the Seattle OL rated as one of the worst in the NFL. They will have problems again this week against a very solid Carolina defensive line who is 3rd in the NFL with 32 sacks. Russell Wilson will be running for his life again this week after getting sacked 6 times last Sunday @ TB. The Panther defense has only allowed one of their last five opponents to top 20 points and that was last week vs a potent Oakland team. The Raiders scored 35 points, however one of those TD’s was a pick 6 AND Oakland only tallied 356 total yards on 5.2 YPP which are both well below their season averages. We don’t expect Carolina to do much against a Seattle defense that ranks #1 in scoring allowing just 17 PPG on the season. This defense has given up 18 points or fewer in 7 of their 11 games this season. Seattle’s defense tends to ramp it up late in the year as 12 of their last 14 December games have finished UNDER the number. Low scoring affair here as we side with the UNDER.

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Charliessports


NFL. 1:00. PM EST. Detroit+6 and A Half Points. (500*).


NFL. 1:00. PM EST. Detroit at New Orleans Under 54-Points. (500*)


NFL. 1:00. PM EST. Miami at Baltimore Under 42-Points. (500*)